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U.S. Stocks Recover as Trump Backs Democrat Deal on Debt Ceiling

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U.S. stocks rebounded Wednesday after President Trump backed a Democratic plan to combine raising the debt ceiling with support for Hurricane Harvey. In reaching the deal, the president overrode pleas from Republican leaders who had urged him to abandon the proposal.

Trump Backs Plan to Raise the Debt Ceiling for Three Months

President Trump bucked his own party Wednesday and endorsed a Democratic deal to raise the debt ceiling by three months. In doing so, he avoided a prolonged showdown on Capitol Hill ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline.

According to sources, Republicans pushed for an 18-month debt limit extension before floating six months.

The deal, which was spearheaded by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Polosi, will keep the government funded and provide much needed appropriations to the Hurricane Harvey relief efforts. Texas Governor Greg Abbott said on Sunday the total cost of recovery could be well north of $120 billion.

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Wall Street Stabilizes

U.S. stocks stabilized Wednesday following their biggest rout in three weeks. The benchmark S&P 500 Index rose 0.3% to close at 2,465.54. Nine of 11 sectors contributed to the rally, with energy stocks climbing 1.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.33 points, or 0.3%, to close at 21,807.64. The blue-chip plunged more than 200 points on Tuesday in the first session back from Labor Day. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.3% to 6,393.31.

A measure of implied volatility known as the CBOE VIX fell back nearly 5% on Wednesday. Just 24 hours earlier, the fear index spiked more than 20% to reach its highest level in two weeks.

Attention Shifts to ECB

European stock futures were up sharply during the pre-market hours as investors turned their attention to an upcoming central bank meeting. The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to deliver its rate verdict at 11:45 GMT. Although no changes are expected, the central bank is expected to upgrade its growth forecasts while downgrading its inflation outlook. Markets will be closely monitoring ECB President Mario Draghi’s remarks for clues about the future path of monetary policy.

A surging euro is complicating the ECB’s plan to begin normalizing monetary policy. The delicate balancing act will likely be reflected in Draghi’s speech on Thursday.

Since June, the euro has appreciated nearly 7% against the dollar. Bank of America Merrill Lunch says that a 10% appreciation of the currency removes 40-50 basis points from medium-term inflation forecasts.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 455 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Market Overview

Market Update: Stocks Retreat as Trade Risks Linger; Oil Markets Turn to OPEC

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U.S. stocks drifted lower Monday, as lingering trade concerns between China and the United States curbed investor appetite for riskier assets.

Stocks Decline

Wall Street’s benchmark indexes headed lower in early-week trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recording its fourth straight decline. Dow industrials settled down 102.94 points, or 0.4%, at 24,987.54.

The broader S&P 500 Index declined 0.2% to close at 2,773.86. Seven of 11 primary sectors contributed to the declines, led by a nearly 2% retreat for telecommunication services. Shares of healthcare companies and consumer staples fell more than 1% on average.

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Meanwhile, the technology-driven Nasdaq Composite Index consolidated at 7,747.02, where it was little changed compared with the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, rose on Monday following back-to-back declines. The gauge of investor fear edged up 2.8% to 12.32.

OPEC in the Spotlight

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold its biannual meeting in Vienna, Austria this week, where members are expected to boost production following the yearlong rally in crude prices.

The Saudi-led cartel is reportedly considering an output boost of between 300,000 and 600,000 barrels per day in an effort to maintain market share. However, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela are expected to veto any decision to raise production levels.

“If the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Russia want to increase production, this requires unanimity. If the two want to act alone, that’s a breach of the cooperation agreement,” Iran’s OPEC representative told Bloomberg over the weekend.

The Saudis and Russians last month declared their intent to boost output levels at a meeting of energy ministers in Saint Petersburg.

OPEC’s upcoming meeting is scheduled June 22.

Cryptocurrencies Recover Mildly in Afternoon Trade

After flat-lining for most of Monday, cryptocurrency prices edged higher in the afternoon with bitcoin and the ten major altcoins putting up gains.

The cryptocurrency market added roughly $13 billion in value in just over an hour as trading activity picked up across the major exchanges. At the time of writing, the total market for virtual currencies was valued at around $288 billion.

Trading volumes are back up to $12 billion after plummeting to $9.5 billion on Sunday. That marked the lowest turnover in more than two months.

Bitcoin clawed back above the $6,700 handle after falling to the low $6,300 range earlier in the day. Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was back around $520.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 455 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Analysis

Europe Drags Stocks Lower while Trade War Fears Return

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The risk-off shift of Friday continued today throughout the major financial markets, with the German political standoff on migration weighing on investors sentiment as well, besides the emerging market troubles, and the trade skirmish between the US and China. All of the major US indices opened the week lower, with Europe clearly underperforming and Asian equities also being under pressure.

As Chinese announced retaliatory tariffs are after last week’s US steps the week could bring upon another round of measures by the Trump administration and with that, the escalation of the trade tensions is very much a possibility again.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Despite today’s losses, the leading indices, especially the Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000, are still just a tad below their all-time highs, while the relatively weak benchmarks are 5-10% below their yearly highs. The balanced S&P 500 is also shy of its all-time, but the short-term uptrend remains intact, and incredibly enough, the benchmark still didn’t leave the range of the early-February crash which unfolded in just 3 days.

Euros Stoxx 50, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The divergence between the leaders and the rest of the global market, continues to point to the fragility of the rally, and as emerging market currencies are sill clearly in trouble, we don’t expect a broad march to new highs in the coming weeks and we remain defensive towards global risk assets.

Commodities Smacked Lower amid Risk-Off Shift

DXY (Dollar Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currencies settled down after their crazy central bank loaded week, with the Dollar pulling back slightly off its highs against the Euro and the Yen, while holding its ground compared to the other majors. The Dollar index broke out of the consolidation pattern as we expected and it is now challenging the multi-month highs set in May.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar is now trading at a 12-month high against the Canadian Dollar, as the pair left behind the 1.30 level as we expected, while the Aussie is also close to hitting levels not seen since last summer, as Friday’s drop in commodities put pressure on the already weak AUD.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodity traders are licking their wounds after Friday’s rout, although crude oil staged an impressive rebound off the two-month low hit in early trading below $64 per barrel with regards to the WTI contract.

That said, the short-term trend is clearly negative, and     new lows are likely in the coming days, although the much-awaited OPEC meeting later on this week could cause wild swings in the key commodity, with speculation already being rampant about the possible output change by the cartel.

Featured iamage from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 276 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

Let’s Break the Internet

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Hi Everyone,

Cardano is by far the most philosophical of all the blockchains in the crypto-space. Its protocol has been described as more of a batch of computer science principles, than a product with a roadmap.

Like Ethereum, NEO, and EOS, Cardano is a platform for creating decentralized applications. It has some really smart people backing its development too, which is one of the reasons this brand new product was able to find it’s way into the top 10 cryptos by market cap.

As such, eToro has now opened up real-time trading on Cardano’s ADA token. After reaching a high of $0.96 at the peak in January, the tokens are now trading just under $0.17.

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To add ADA to your investment profile, please click here: https://www.etoro.com/markets/ada

Remember, cryptocurrencies are very risky so please trade responsibly and diversify yourself with other markets as well.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Trade War Continues
  • Sudden Dollar Surge
  • The BS Report on Cryptocurrencies

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of June 18th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Want to wish a very happy Dragon Boat Festival to all our clients and colleagues in China.

On Friday, the USA and China added to market tensions with additional tit-for-tat trade tariffs. President Trump struck first by announcing $50 billion worth of new tariff’s on imports from China.

The response from China was swift, immediately matching the US measure-for-measure. The response came within just a couple of hours as the Chinese finance ministry barely allowed the news of the initial tariff’s to penetrate before announcing their retaliation.

Thus, the Chinese counter-measures dominated the news cycle, which will no doubt be viewed as a successful show of strength. In fact, the original Email that came to my inbox from the Financial Times with the headline…

…actually now leads to an article about the retaliatory tariffs.

The Chinese playbook has become quite clear in this case. Perhaps too clear.

An escalation of $50 billion on either side isn’t much, but the speed and scale of the Chinese response may have just tipped Beijing’s hand.

In any case, the measures didn’t seem to have had much effect on the stock markets. In this short-term graph of the Dow Jones, we can see that stocks were already on their way down before the 3.5 hour spat (purple circle).

If we zoom out to the long-term graph, we can see how insignificant the latest progression has actually been. Same purple circle.

As far as markets are concerned, the entire trade war saga is rather like the turbulence on an airplane. It might scare off a few of the newbies but for any seasoned flyer, it’s just time to sip a drink and go back to sleep.

They will, of course, wake up rather suddenly, only if captain Trump decides to do any drastic evasive maneuvers.

What Happened to Gold?

Though the stock markets were rather unaffected by the new trade war progressions, the news may have had some effect on the commodities.

Here we can see gold and crude oil reacting to the updates and plunging rather noticeably from the initial announcement and until well after China’s retaliation.

Oil is also reacting to updates from OPEC and Russia who are supposed to meet this Friday. The expected results of that meeting seemed to be rather clear at the end of last week but this morning there’s a bit of contention as several OPEC members are now opposing the idea of increasing production.

Gold on the other hand, is really confusing. Increased geopolitical uncertainty usually makes gold go up, so it’s kind of strange to see the opposite reaction from Friday’s news.

So if anyone can help me understand why it went down, I’d sure appreciate it.

The Crypto BS Report

Last week we spoke about the incredible update from the SEC where they finally clarified that Ethereum is in fact not considered a security. Though some in the community pointed out that there’s still a lot of uncertainty in the space, with the exception of Bitcoin maximalists, most people seem very happy about the recent update.

This morning there’s a fresh report out, this time from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). This institution has never been very crypto-friendly and thought the report does highlight some of the positive qualities of cryptocurrencies, the key takeaways seem rather negative.

It pays to point out in this case that the BIS is a key player in the fiat ecosystem and as we saw with Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffet, and Bill Gates would have the most to lose should Bitcoin gain more prominence.

Their concerns over the consumption of electricity used by Bitcoin have been long ago debunked, while the claim that blockchain technology could overload and “bring the internet to a halt” feels sensationalist.

The analysis used to support this hypothesis assumes exponential growth in usage and zero infrastructure growth. It would be like saying in the 90’s that if all data were transferred over the internet, it would not be able to handle the traffic.

Of course, we know that by the time Kim Kardashian published her famous pics on PaperMag, there was more than enough bandwidth to handle all the likes and shares.

Not only is the infrastructure of blockchain technology now being built at a rapid pace, but the groundwork for the next level of innovation is already well underway as…

Let’s have an awesome day!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 102 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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