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Two Different Directions for the World

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As I start writing to you today, a multi-national conference is underway in Danang Vietnam. This conference had two keynote speakers, arguably the two most powerful men in the world at the moment, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

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The two men could hardly be more opposite when it comes to their views on international cooperation and globalization. Mr. Trump expressed the view that multi-national partnerships are harmful to individual states and that countries should seek direct bilateral partnerships.

Mr. Jinping, on the other hand, used the stage to promote his Belt and Roads initiative, which is a massive multi-national project that Xi has been pushing over the past few years.

The financial markets remained rather indifferent to all this as it seems to have bigger things on the agenda.

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@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of November 10th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Donald Trump has been on his best behavior during his Asian tour so far. Though he has more or less stuck to his guns about the main issues, he has been a bit more defensive than usual in the last few days.

So far, the strategy seems to be working for him. Just this morning, China announced that they would be opening their financial markets to more foreign investments. This is part of their long term strategy to make China the global center for business.

Despite Trump’s seemingly successful new strategy, stocks in the United States saw some notable declines yesterday. As we’ve been discussing, the main driver at the moment is tax reforms, and a report came out yesterday that it might not happen until 2019.

The Dow Jones fell about 320 points from its all time high (blue) to the lows of yesterday’s session (yellow) before seeing a miraculous recovery.

The USDollar remains very much in focus. Here’s the chart we posted the other day, as you can see we’re now near the bottom of the channel. This is where the Dollar recovery will be at its greatest test.

Also, take a look at oil. Flying high above its 200 day average price (blue).

Go Digital or Go Home

Of course, the biggest question on many eToro minds is Bitcoin. After the announcement that the chain split has been called off there was a brief surge in the price above $7800 but that didn’t last very long.

The price has moved from $2963 on September 15th to the all time high of $7872 on Wednesday. That represents a total gain of 165% in less than two months.

If we do get a retracement now, the Fibonacci lines indicate that the most likely first level of support would be at $6000.

Now, let’s zoom out and take a look at the “long term” trend…

Here we can see that we’ve veered off the major trend line (yellow). Of course, with all the excitement we’ve been seeing in bitcoin lately and the massive rate of adoption it’s certainly possible that we shoot straight to $10,000 from here.

However, we can see very defined levels of support on bitcoin. In the past year, every time it broke an all time high, it eventually came back down to build support. We can see the two most recent such levels on the chart above in blue and green.

What else?

Two holidays. Today is Veterans Day in the USA. So even though most markets will be open we could see a lot of traders heading out for the weekend a few hours early and liquidity is likely to get quite thin.

Tomorrow is Single’s Day in China. By far the biggest retail holiday in Asia, if not the world. A strong showing of purchases could give some much needed support for global markets.

Wishing you and your family a pleasant weekend.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Flirts with $8000 as Altcoin Bull Persists

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Bitcoin’s swift recovery was the main topic of the week, as the most valuable coin not just regained its steep losses, but hit a marginal new high towards the end of the period. The entire segment is experiencing capital inflows as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever after finally leaving the vicinity of the $200 billion mark.

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BTC breached the $8000 level before turning slightly lower on Friday, but despite the severely overbought daily chart, it is still trading near its all-time highs. As the long-term picture still suggests a deeper correction, investors should wait with opening new positions and traders should also control position sizes here. Key support levels are found at $7700, $7000, and $6700, while the recent key break-out level at $5000 still hasn’t been re-tested.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Dash is still the most bullish altcoin from a technical standpoint, despite this week’s short-term correction, as the coin is trading above its prior all-time high, and this weekend, it looks ready to test the break-out high near $500. Support levels are still found at $400, $360, and $330, and as the long-term picture is approaching overbought territory, investors should only hold on to their positions here.

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The other major altcoins are also mostly in bullish setups, with some of them already in the latter stages of this cycle, like Monero and IOTA, but elsewhere in the segment, there are still opportunities for both traders and investors. Let’s see the detailed long-term view.

(more…)

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin and NEO Jump as Bitcoin Trades near $8000

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The cryptocurrency segment continued its bullish run, as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever, while Bitcoin also posted marginal new highs. The most valuable currency is still overbought regarding the long-term picture, and we continue to expect a deeper correction in the coming period, despite the recent strong rally. Support levels are still found $7700, $7000, and $6700 while the $8000 level is ahead as a major obstacle.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been the most active major besides Bitcoin, as it rallied strongly after breaking out above the key $64 resistance and it breached the next target at $75 before heading below $70 again. The coin remains in bullish long- and short-term patterns, and we expect a move above the major resistance zone ahead with the next target found at $82.50.

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Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is showing strength in the second half of the session, while Monero is recovering well from a short-term dip, similarly to IOTA and Ethereum Classic. Ethereum continues to represent stability in the segment, while Ripple failed to build up momentum so far after yesterdays spike higher. With still most of the altcoins being in bullish setups, let’s see the short-term charts.

(more…)

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Ripple Breaks Out as Bitcoin Tests Highs

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Cryptocurrencies are having another bullish session as the total value of the market surged to a new all-time high near $225 billion, with the help of the rally in BTC and Ripple, and despite the drop in the value of Bitcoin Cash. The most valuable coin its record high yet again after the brief but steep weekend correction, despite the still overbought long-term picture. We still urge traders and investors to wait for a deeper correction before entering new positions here, with support levels found at $7000, $6700, and $6000.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has been the other main mover of the day so far, as the coin skyrocketed on huge volume and breached the $0.26 level before turning lower and stabilizing near $0.23. The coin triggered a short-term buy signal by moving above $0.2250 and it remains bullish on both time-frames, despite the pull-back, with another major target level ahead at $0.30.

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Ripple/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The other majors are little changed expect IOTA, which further added to yesterday’s gains and reached overbought readings, while Ethereum Classic and Dash continue to drift lower in short-term correction patterns. Let’s see the detailed analysis of the short-term charts.

(more…)

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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