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Turkey’s Constitutional Referendum: Political Chaos or Dictatorship?

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Turkey, the regional superpower with a fragile economy, a faltering currency, a refugee crisis caused by the Syrian war, a divided society, and an autocratic leader is at a major crossroad. On Sunday, the nation will turn out to decide on transforming the country’s democracy into a significantly more centralized presidential democracy with a package of constitutional amendments. The current government pulled all strings to demonize the “No” voters, while jailing many opposition politicians, and sacking thousands of alleged opposition officials, judges, and military leaders.

The campaign also made international waves, as it involved Turkish communities all over Europe, sparking a severe diplomatic conflict between the Netherlands and Turkey, with more controversies in Germany and other European nations.

The opposition fears that the 18 amendments would cement Erdogan’s “dictatorship” for good, turning the country back from the road that Kemal Atatürk set following the fall of the Ottoman Empire. The new rules would most importantly take away the parliaments oversight of ministers, lower the power of the Prime Minister and the military leadership, while vastly expanding the role of the president.

Erdogan and his supporters say that the new rules would help the country in getting stronger and more effective in fighting terrorism and the looming economic crisis, while providing “unity” in a nation that is divided by religious views, ethnicity, and strong political partisanship. Would these divisions go away with a simple vote? Hardly, but Erdogan could stay in power until 2029 (with two additional terms as a president) and try to stabilize the country, a feat that he has failed to succeed in in the past 15 years.

What to expect and how will the markets react?

Although it’s easy to argue that the “No” vote is the more desirable for the country, the short-term consequences of that outcome might be scary. Investors fear that the ensuing political chaos—a likely brought-forward election and the possible backlash by the ruling party against the opposition could lead to another round of capital flight from Turkey.

The Turkish Lira has already been under severe pressure in the last few years losing more than half of its value against the US Dollar. The country’s foreign reserves are also quickly declining, and that could lead to a full-blown currency crisis if investors remain reluctant to finance the debt of the country.

TRY/USD weekly performance Chart

The stock market has been stable in recent years, but given the currency’s decline and the global bull market, this performance is not stellar by any means. If the “Yes” campaign wins, stocks will likely rally, together with the Lira, while bond yields could retreat, giving Erdogan some breathing room to negotiate with the EU, consolidate his power, and finally focus on the economy and the pressing social and ethnic issues.

BIST 100 Turkish Index, Long-Term Chart Analysis

Looking at the chart of the main Turkish Stock Index, it seems likely that the benchmark will challenge the 100,000 level if it manages to break out from the giant multi-year consolidation pattern that has dominated the market since the top of 2013. The index already rose 20% this year, as the chance of the passing of the reform grew.

The long-term consequences are hard to judge, but if Erdogan doesn’t soften his grip on the institutions, the opposition, and minorities, the initial rally could fade later on this year and the Lira might resume its long-term slide, while stocks also get under pressure. It’s important to note that now more than ever, the country is dependent on investor confidence, and in the case of another global economic downturn, Turkey will definitely be hit hard, being a risky investment target in itself.

Polling and Betting Markets

Polling Date Yes No
12-13 April 59.4 40.6
11–13 April 44.1 30.6
8–13 April 52.9 34.1
8–12 April 46.1 53.9
7–10 April 46.9 44.1
5–10 April 39.3 45.7
5–10 April 54.6 41.4
5–10 April 52 48
8–9 April 46.6 43.5

 

The recent polling history

The latest polling averages show the narrow lead of the “Yes” votes with the rolling average of the polls standing at 51.50% to 48.50%. That said, polling in the country is even more biased than in the US or Europe, and it’s hard to trust any forecast especially given the narrow margins. Betting markets are showing a 70% chance for Erdogan’s victory, but again, these markets have been misleading in both the case of the Brexit vote and the US elections.

There might be a large number of “hiding” no voters given the aggressive government propaganda, but the bias of the administration could, without a doubt, lead to a skew towards the yes votes. For now, one can only hope for a clean referendum that won’t be overshadowed by violence. No matter what the result will look like, history is in the making, and Turkey will not be the same country on Monday.

Stay tuned for our take on the results as soon as they become public.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 321 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

Market Update: U.S. Stocks on China Trade Optimism; Bitcoin Holds Firm as Volatility Plummets

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U.S. stocks advanced Monday, with the S&P 500 inching closer to record highs as investors held onto hopes for an easing of the trade war with China.

Stocks Rise

All of Wall Street’s major indexes recorded gains in early-week trading, with the S&P 500 Index coming within half a percentage point of record highs. The large-cap average eventually settled at 2,857.05, having gained 0.2% from the previous close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 86.56 points, or 0.3%, to close at 25,755.88, its highest since January.

The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.1% to 7,820.58.

Shares tied to primary industries were among the best performers Monday. The S&P 500’s energy index rose 0.6%, while industrials and materials rose at least 0.7%.

A measure of implied volatility known as the CBOE VIX edged slightly lower on Monday to reach its lowest level in ten days. The so-called “fear index” fell 2.1% to 12.38 on a scale of 1-100 where 20 represents the historic average.

Path of Least Resistance

Wall Street’s path of least resistance is higher following news that the U.S. and China are looking to rekindle trade negotiations later this month. As Hacked reported Friday, Washington and Beijing are plotting a road map for resolving their lingering trade dispute.

Markets are striking a more optimistic tone in the wake of yet another solid earnings quarter. Low trade volumes are also expected to keep the upward momentum on track heading into next month’s Labor Day weekend.

In terms of upcoming events, the Federal Reserve on Tuesday will publish the transcript of its most recent policy meeting, where officials voted to keep interest rates on hold. Later this week, global finance leaders will arrive in Wyoming for the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

Bitcoin Holds Firm

The bitcoin price continued to trade in a narrow range on Monday, though the technical charts showed greater potential for upside. The leading digital currency traded at $6,452 on Bitfinex after hitting a high of $6,524. At current values, bitcoin owns 52.2% of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

In other news, USDT has moved into eighth spot on the market cap rankings after Tether, its issuing company, printed $415 million worth of the stablecoin this month. USDT now has a market capitalization of $2.7 billion, leapfrogging Cardano’s ADA coin.

The cryptocurrency market’s combined value on Monday was $214.2 billion, little changed compared with 24 hours ago. Trade volumes hovered above $11.2 billion, which was consistent with Sunday levels.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 554 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Market Overview

Brand New Crypto Economy

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Hi Everybody,

It’s not the first time that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is restructuring the Venezuelan economy but it might be the most significant update so far.

With the economic crisis in Venezuela reaching levels that some are calling a humanitarian disaster, and inflation projected to reach 1,000,000% by the end of the year, President Nicolas Maduro is now turning to crypto to try and stabilize the situation.

This announcement might not be getting enough attention in the mainstream media but it certainly is turning a few heads in the crypto space.

Because the Venezuelan national cryptocurrency known as the Petro is pegged to the price of oil, the government’s hope is that it will provide a backstop to the new version of their currency, the Sovereign Bolivar.

The old Bolivar was a bit of a mess because it carried an official exchange rate of 10 Bolivar’s to the Dollar, whereas the actual rate on the street was more like six to eight million Bolivars to the Dollar.

Several reports have indicated that the new structure represents a massive devaluation of the Bolivar. However, those headlines might be misleading.

As each Petro is supposed to be pegged to a barrel of oil, one Petro should be worth about $60, so the new minimum wage of half a Petro a month is about 3000 times the current minimum wage, which is about $1 per month.

The main problem with this plan is that we still have no way of verifying that each Petro represents one barrel of oil. Should the Venezuelan Government wish to provide this level of transparency, it would be rather simple using the Ethereum blockchain. But alas, Maduro chose to use the less transparent NEM network for the Petro and therefore we have no choice but to hang on his two words that were prevalent in his Friday night announcement…

“Trust Me”

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Don’t Skip This Part
  • Fed Meeting Incoming
  • Brand new Crypto

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of August 20th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets (Don’t Skip this Part)

Sure, most of you are probably reading these daily market updates strictly for the crypto part. However, it is my strict belief that it is impossible to understand the economics of cryptocurrencies without understanding the traditional markets that provide the backdrop.

For example, last week we saw some rather unusual drama surrounding Turkey, which did seem to spill over into other markets, including cryptocurrencies.

In this graph below we can see the Turkish Lira (red) starting to slide on August 9th. If was soon followed by the Dow Jones (Green), which opened with a gap down on Friday the 10th. Then you can see Ethereum (purple) plunging on Saturday and gold (yellow) marking new lows by Wednesday the 15th.

Now, normally a crisis in Turkey shouldn’t have much of an effect on any of these other markets. However, due to the severity of the slide and the sudden nature, it seems that it did catch many traders off-guard.

However, we can see that on Friday the 17th, the Lira took another sudden dive, this time the other markets were more prepared and therefore unaffected.

This morning, the stocks seem to be doing well and yet crypto-assets are struggling, and emerging market currencies still haven’t taken much of a direction. This as the US Dollar has begun the week on a stronger foot ahead of an important Fed meeting that will take place on Thursday and Friday.

Brand New Crypto

eToro is pleased to announce that we’ve added our 12th digital asset to the number one social investment app.

You can now find IOTA among the 2000+ markets that you can easily add to your eToro investment account. (This is not investment advice)

As always, let me know if you have any questions, feedback, or further insight. I’m always happy to hear it.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Turkey Back in the Crosshairs Amid Sanction Threats

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The “red-bar-green-bar-madness” continues in global stock markets, as after yesterday’s rally, today the major markets are all in the red once again. Emerging market woes are still feeding the bearish narrative, with the Turkish Lira being back in the center of attention. The currency which enjoyed a three-day relief rally slid lower following threats regarding further retaliatory US sanctions, should turkey keep Pastor Brunson in custody.

USD/TRY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The diplomatic troubles only add to the problems of the country, while also helping the rhetoric of the Turkish leadership that focuses on a western “attack” on the nation. With the vague budget plans in mind, the endgame for the Lira still seems ugly, even as at the current levels, strong Turkish companies can offer great bargains for a long-term investment portfolio.

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The divergence between the US and the rest of the world seems to be getting wider by the day, as the Shanghai Composite closed on a fresh bear market low, while most of Asia is also stuck in short-term downtrends, while Europe is looking wounded too from a technical perspective. The main US indices, on the other hand, are still near their all-time highs, and today’s selloff is also just a small blip in the ongoing uptrend.

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a slightly negative note, the Nasdaq has been underperforming the broader market ever since Tencent’s earnings miss on Wednesday, and today, it’s also the worst performing benchmark on Wall Street in the wake of Nvidia’s (NVDA) lackluster guidance that came out yesterday after the closing bell.

Today’ session could still go either way in the US, as the overnight losses are moderate, and yesterday’s trade war optimism could still fuel a recovery in the worlds strongest stock market, even amid the deepening emerging market crisis.

Forex Markets Stable As Dollar Consolidates

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar is consolidating just below its recent 13-month highs, with the EUR/USD pair rebounding to 1.14, and the broader Dollar index settling down near 96.5. The reserve currency is still clearly in a rising trend, and as the short-term overbought momentum readings are almost cleared, the rally could soon continue, especially if risk-off sentiment remains dominant outside of the US.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are virtually unchanged before the US open, with gold still hovering just above its 17-month low near the $1185 level, crude oil being stuck near $65 per barrel regarding the WTI contract, while copper trying to hold its ground after the recent key breakdown.

Dr. Copper is still signaling troubles ahead for China and the global economy, as although the commodity outperformed today, it’s clearly below the break-down level near $2.7, and the downtrend will likely continue in the coming weeks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 321 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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