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Treasuries and Stocks Tumble as Jobs Friday Looms

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Financial markets had a bloody US session, with especially the second half of the day bringing steep losses in stocks. All of the major indices finished deep in the red, while the Volatility Index (VIX) surged to its highest level since the mid-August emerging market rout.

Treasury yields, which triggered the selloff, retreated off their intraday highs, which represented multi-year highs across the yield curve. The Greenback also pulled back from its highs, but the Dollar-funding crisis is likely here to stay, as the trend in yields seems robust.

USD/TRY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Predictably, emerging market currencies got under pressure due to the sharp rise in US yields and the one-month high in the Dollar index, but on a positive note for global risk assets, the moves are muted so far. The Turkish Lira is still in a consolidation pattern against the USD, which developed after the panicky period in August, and today’s move only pushed the currency to a 10-day low, with the all-time lows being far from the current levels.

2-Year US Treasury Yield,4-Hour Chart Analysis

Tomorrow’s Employment Report will be closely watched yet again by both investors and traders, with a clear focus on the Average Hourly Earnings figure that sent shockwaves through financial markets last month. While analysts expect a slower pace this time around 0.3% vs. 0.3%, on a yearly basis, growth is well above the inflation target of the Fed.

With that in mind, it’s clear that the better than expected ADP payrolls figure is among the main catalysts behind the surge in yields. The official payroll growth is expected to come in at 185,000 with the unemployment rate ticking lower to 3.8%

Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Leading the Way Lower

Nasdaq 100 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Nasdaq has been clearly the weakest US index from a short-term perspective, not counting the small-cap Russell 2000 benchmark. The tech index got hit hard today as well, continuing the trend from yesterday afternoon, and the short-term chart also shows a possibly powerful reversal pattern.

The widely traded Nasdaq 100 futures contract hit a marginal new all-time high on Monday, but instead of a break-out, a bull trap pattern got completed, and that could trigger a deep correction in the tech segment, especially given the recent weakness in the smaller issues on Wall Street.

Russell 2000 (Small-Cap index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main US small-cap benchmark hit its lowest level since late-July on Tuesday, clearly underperforming the broader market and signaling risk aversion among investors. Despite yesterday’s oversold bounce, the index remained wounded from a technical perspective, and a break below the late-July support could open up the way for more weakness.

That could possibly be the precursor of a deeper correction in the whole US market that has been the only really bullish one among the leading global equity markets. Tomorrow’ session could be an important one, as the Employment Report usually sparks big moves across asset classes, and the Russell is trading very close to the crucial level in focus.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 469 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Binance Coin Price Analysis: BNB Bulls Maintain Elevation Following Testnet Launch for Binance DEX

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  • Binance Coin on Friday is holding healthy gains of around 3% in the early part of the session.
  • The decentralized exchange Binance DEX testnet was launched earlier this week. Binance will be looking to gather user feedback before an official roll-out of the platform.

Binance’s BNB price continues to somewhat outperform several of its peers. BNB/USDT is trading up over 3% in the early part of the session on Friday. Since the start of February, the BNB bulls have enjoyed a strong move north, having gained around 80%. The price is currently trading in proximity to its highest levels since October 2018, entering a zone that is known for sellers. The next significant technical barrier for the bulls is within reach; for greater upside it must be broken down.

Binance DEX Testnet Running

Earlier this week, Binance, the world largest cryptocurrency exchange by traded volume, launched the testnet for its decentralized trading platform. Binance DEX has been made available for public testing; users can create crypto wallets and start familiarizing themselves with the platform’s interface. The platform is running on the Binance Chain, which is their proprietary blockchain.

Furthermore, the company released a blockchain explorer for the testnet; this allows users to search by an individual block, transaction, asset, address and order ID via the blockchain. The community will be able to participate as individual nodes, in addition to holding their private keys.

Binance has noted it will need to start gathering much feedback from its community on this current testnet. The company can then look at the timeline for a major final step of rolling out the decentralized exchange.

The CEO and co-founder Changpeng Zhao commented following the announcement:

“With Binance DEX, we provide a different balance of security, freedom, and ease-of-use, where you take more responsibility and are in more control of personal assets.”

Technical Review – BNB/USDT

BNB/USDT daily chart.

Given current upside momentum, the areas of resistance must be noted as potential barriers to disrupt this bull run. Firstly, a supply area can be observed just ahead tracking from $10.90 up to $11.63. The BNB/USDT bulls faltered here on several occasions in August, September and October 2018. The damage occurred after the rejection in October, which gradually went on to lead to a steep bearish trend that commenced in November. The price went on to drop around 50%, throughout November up to early December.

Another chunky wave of buying pressure would likely come into play, should the bulls break the mentioned supply. Furthermore, eyes will then be on a return back towards the $14-$15 price range. BNB/USDT last traded up at these heights back in August 2018, just before the bear market kicked in again with intense selling pressure.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 126 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Monero Price Analysis: The Choice of Cyber Criminals, XMR/USD is Vulnerable to Full Reversal

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  • Monero price on Thursday was hit with steep losses, dropping as much as 5% in the session.
  • Trend Micro, a security intelligence firm, finds a Monero hacking tool for installing mining malware.

XMR/USD: Recent Price Behavior

Monero’s XMR price has been cooling over the last day, having dropped around 5% at the time of writing on Thursday. The move south comes after a decent run higher over the past couple of weeks. XMR/USD jumped almost 30% from 7th February up to 19th February, before easing away from the high print. The price did manage to hit its highest level seen since 10th January.

Security Intelligence Identifies Monero Hacking Tool

Researchers at Trend Micro, a security intelligence firm, have detailed that there is a notable surge in a Monero hack-tool installation. It reportedly attempts to exploit a vulnerability seen on Windows SMB, which has been patched up since 2017. Organizations in mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Italy are said to be the ones targeted, according to the researchers.

The blog published via Trend Micro details that the tool seems to be a merger of existing threats. In particular, it has targeted Microsoft Windows users – MIMIKATZ and RADMIN. As per Trend Micro:

“Between the last week of January to February, we noticed an increase in hack tool installation attempts. That dropped seemingly random files into the Windows directory. Initially appearing unrelated, the analysis showed the final payload to be a Monero cryptocurrency-mining malware variant. It scans for open port 445 and exploits a Windows SMB Server Vulnerability MS17-010 (patched in 2017) for its infection and propagation routines.”

The research does not come as much of a surprise, given the raft of Monero mining malware threats seen over the past year. Cyber criminals have strong favor for the altcoin given its privacy and anonymity, in addition to the ease of mining it on devices as simple as laptops and smartphones.

Technical Review – XMR/USD

XMR/USD daily chart.

Given the current edging south, eyes are now on the next area of support, which can be seen below at the prior acting range-block formation. XMR/USD between 11th Jan to 8th February was moving within a narrowing daily range. The area above this is now acting as support, as seen between 10-17th February. This came into play after a breakout and retest of the breached block. In terms of the comfort area, it is seen tracking from $47.50 down to $42.00. The bear pressure may prove to be too much for the support and force a breach. Another potential retest of the low down at $38.80 could be called into action.

Lastly, resistance to the upside is observed from the $53-$60 price range, which is the near-term supply and high area from 24th December to early January 2019. Further north, there can also be a chunky barrier seen ahead of the psychological $100 mark, tracking from $75-$95 range.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 126 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Litecoin Leads Pullback in Majors

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The major cryptocurrencies are all lower today following the test of the recent swing highs. Yesterday, the early leader of the current short-term uptrend, Litecoin hit the key $51 resistance, and today the coin pulled back sharply, triggering a broad correction in the segment. The leaders of the rally are all notably lower, but they are still holding on to the bulk of their recent gains, and the rising short-term trendlines are all intact.

From a short-term technical perspective, the current pullback is orderly, and as the coins clear the overbought momentum readings, traders could re-enter smaller, speculative positions with strict risk management rules. The long-term technical picture continues to warrant caution, and bear market rules still apply despite the consolidation of the recent months.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin’s performance continues to be an important tell for the whole segment, and after yesterday’s downgrade in our trend model, the coin’s pullback is weighing on the whole market today. That said, volume patterns and price action in general, are still in line with a short-term uptrend, and traders could be looking for re-entry points and the overbought momentum readings get cleared.

The key $51 resistance level, which halted yesterday’s move, could be in focus again in the coming days, while a deeper correction could see the test of the $44 level. For now, our trend model remains on a neutral short-term signal, while the long-term signal is still clearly negative, with further support levels found near $44 and $38, and with strong resistance also ahead near the $56 level.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin remained within its short-term consolidation pattern, as the $3850 level provided support, so far, during the broad pullback in the segment. The MACD indicator is now pointing to an ongoing short-term correction, but the relatively weak short-term uptrend is still clearly intact.

Traders could hold on to their positions here despite the pullback, as the momentum indicators haven’t reached extreme overbought levels, leaving our trend model on a short-term buy signal, but we would with entering new positions until the pullback runs its course. While the long-term technical outlook is clearly negative for BTC here, a move above the key $4000-$4050 zone could lead to a test of the next major zone near $4450, while support below $3850 is still found near $3600 and just above $3450.

Ethereum and EOS Remain Stable as Ripple Fails to Show Strength

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to trade in a bullish short-term correction pattern near the $145 resistance level. The uptrend is clearly intact in the coin, and although the short-term momentum indicators continue to show overbought readings the rally could soon continue, with the $160 price level still being in sight. Support levels are still found near $130 and $112, while the next major resistance zone is found near $180, and the long-term downtrend is still in no danger here.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS, which has also been among the leaders of the rally, continue to show stability amid today’s pullback, but as it got severely overbought during the recent upswing, our tend model is on a neutral signal. Traders should wait for the correction to run its course before re-entering their positions, since the long-term setup in EOS still warrants caution. Support is found near the current price level at $3.80, at $350 and near $3, while resistance is now ahead near $4 and $4.50.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple remains the primary concern for bulls here, as the relatively weak coin failed to show signs of stability falling back to the vicinity of the $0.32 level. The coin got stuck below the dominant bearish short-term trendline, and our trend model is now on a short-term sell signal, despite the broad rally in the segment.

With the long-term technicals still being hostile even in the case of a new swing low in the coming week, traders should remain cautious with XRP and focus on the stronger currencies with regards to trading positions. Below $0.32, further support zones are found near $0.30, $0.28, and $0.26, while short-term targets are still ahead near $0.3550, and $$0.3750.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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2 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5 (2 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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4.7 stars on average, based on 469 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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