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Trading 101

Trading 101: Chart Patterns, Part 1

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Arguably the most well-known part of technical analysis is the study of chart patterns. Even those not familiar with TA have seen double tops, double bottoms, head and shoulders formations, to name the most famous ones. These patterns are relatively easy to spot and give the illusion that it’s easy to spot a reversal in prices. Although some of the chart patterns have a pretty good track record, it’s very important to know their limitations, their background, and to use them as all other trading tools: to judge probabilities rather than to find The Holy Grail of trading.

The Premise of Chart Patterns

Visualization is one of the key elements of technical analysis. This method uses the unique ability of our brain to spot patterns and build models by comparing a particular price chart to different historical price movements. On a basic level, traders use price formations because similar price movements tend to resolve similarly, mostly because crowds tend to react to similar situations in a similar way. Looking at charts as the “log” of crowd behavior helps us to understand why the price history can help us in gauging the state of the market, and spotting the current “mood” of the participants, and most importantly the balance between buyers and sellers.

On the flip side, your mind can play tricks with you as well; you might see patterns when there is none, or even worse, use what you see to confirm what you already decided unconsciously. Psychologists call this confirmation bias, and it’s one of the most notorious enemies of traders and investors alike.

So while visualization is a huge help for traders, especially experienced ones, always treat chart patterns with a grain of salt. They are not magical tools, but in the good hands they can boost your returns and help you in spotting great trading opportunities while protecting your capital.

The previously discussed support and resistance levels can be viewed as the most basic (and some of the most reliable) chart patterns. As a general rule, simplicity is very helpful in technical analysis—overcomplicating your charts will generally lead to confusion. Also, on a complicated chart, you will definitely find some confirmation, no matter that you want to buy or short the given asset.

The Types of Chart Patterns

There are several possible factors to group the vast number of chart formations, but we will use the most practical one, the role of the pattern in the trend. This way, you will be able to look at the formations as part of the ongoing price movements, not just isolated things. Context is always very important when dealing with chart patterns, as, for example, a “double top” looking pattern can have significantly different importance in a downtrend or at the end of a multi-year advance.

We will use the following groups:

  • Consolidation patterns
  • Continuation patterns
  • Reversal patterns

These groups already have some overlap between them, as, for instance, some continuation patterns could be consolidation patterns as well, but in practice it’s more important to know the usual consequence of a formation than to have nice and tidy groups.

Consolidation Patterns

Consolidation patterns in the WTI Crude contract, 4-Hour Time-Frame

We already saw that the price of financial assets isn’t always moving up or down, it also drifts sideways for long periods. When you notice a neutral short-term trend in an ongoing long-term move, it’s called a consolidation pattern. Consolidation patterns are brief “stops” in the trend which don’t change the basic structure of the move.

As you can see on the chart above the trend remained intact and the break-outs from the patterns gave great opportunities to enter the move. Also, it’s easy to see that these patterns often correspond with the swings that we already discussed. The reason that we use this grouping is that some swings will qualify as consolidation patterns, but others might mean entirely different things for the trend.

Consolidation patterns usually emerge in strong trends and last only for a brief period of time (5-10 candles on the given time frame). The names of these patterns usually simply refer to something that is similar to the pattern, wedges, flags, triangles, pennants, and rectangles (trading ranges). We will look at these in detail later on when discussing continuation and reversal patterns.

Continuation Patterns

As soon as the ongoing consolidation pattern starts to break the structure of the underlying trend, violates the trend-line for example, we talk about a correction that could form a continuation or a reversal pattern, depending on the outcome. We have to stress again that the shape of the pattern is no magical forecasting tool, rather a hint on the probability of the outcome, but with experience and disciplined trading, this edge can be turned into significant and stable returns.

First, we will look into formations that are primarily continuation-patterns.

Triangles

Consolidation (red), and continuation and reversal patterns (black) in the S&P 500, 30-minute Time-Frame

Triangle patterns are probably the most common ones, and they can simply be described as compression patterns, periods where the price action in the asset is limited to smaller and smaller ranges as the time goes by. This corresponds with the decline in volatility, and with less and less short-term trading opportunity in the pattern. These factors usually lead to declining volumes (as short-term traders look for other assets) and, lately, algorithms compressing the price even more.

Triangles can be symmetrical, ascending, or descending, depending on the angle of the lines that make up the pattern. Although all triangles are primarily considered continuation patterns, their success rate varies from asset to asset. As a general rule, a move out of the triangle in the direction of the prevailing trend is considered a more reliable signal. Also, symmetrical triangles are less reliable in both declining and rising trends, while ascending triangles give better signals in uptrends while descending triangles in downtrends. If you notice an inverse triangle (or megaphone pattern,) where volatility is rising, be careful, as it is a usually bearish pattern that is not just hard to spot in real-time, but also very tricky to trade.

Rectangles or Trading Ranges

These patterns are also very common and appear on every time-frame and every stage of trends. They are bordered with short-or long-term horizontal support and resistance levels. In practice, short-term trading ranges (consolidation patterns) are reliable both in up and downtrends, but longer-term ranges are less useful in downtrends, despite being reliable in uptrends. We will go into details in our next article on pattern-based strategies.

Reversal Patterns

Double Tops and Bottoms

Giant daily double top in the S&P 500 at the end of the 2003-2007 bull market

These very famous patterns are closely connected to swing-analysis, as they are based on swings that fail to hit new highs or lows in an ongoing trend. By definition, a double top pattern forms in an uptrend if two upswings “top-out” at, or almost at the same level. These two tops set up a horizontal resistance line, while the swing low of the first swing will be the level of the so-called “neckline”.  This level is very important (as you might remember from our swing-trading lessons), as if the second swing penetrates that level, a “lower low” will form, confirming the weakness in the trend.

A very common misconception regarding double tops (and bottoms), is that if you have the two tops, you already have the pattern formed. In contrary, a double top is only confirmed if the price falls below the neckline, end closes below it (basically hits a lower low).  Also, a double top without an uptrend or a double bottom without a downtrend doesn’t exist. In fact, these patterns are more reliable on longer timeframes (such as daily charts) because they represent more stable market dynamics.

All in all, while double tops and bottoms are actually very reliable patterns, the misuse of the definition often leads to counter-trend positions, as traders enter into consolidation patterns against the trend, without confirmed weakness and a valid formation.

Triple and Multiple Tops and Bottoms

Similarly to the double tops, these formations occur when the price of an asset fails to surpass a prior high or low, but with these patterns, this happens on multiple occasions. As a general rule, triple and multiple tops are way less reliable patterns, even if the “neckline-break” occurs. A lot of times these will prove to be rectangle continuation patterns with a failed break-out or break-down, making them rather suspicious trading tools. Also, in connection with this, remember that in uptrends resistance levels (and in downtrends support levels) should be treated weaker and weaker if they are tested multiple times, as the underlying trend is more and more likely to continue.

Head and Shoulders and Inverse H&S Patterns

Daily Inverse Head and Shoulders Reversal in Oil (USO ETF)

These patterns are very close to double tops and bottoms, but with a twist; between the two similar swing highs or lows (the shoulders) there is third slightly higher or lower swing that is called the head. Head and shoulders patterns are even more reliable than double tops, as they point to imminent weakness in the trend, as the price breaks the neckline (the first of the three swing lows) even before re-testing the first swing high.

With these patterns the same rules apply as with double tops and bottoms; they should be preceded with a distinct trend, and they are only confirmed when the neckline is broken.

Now that we got to know the most common chart patterns and the theory behind them, we will dive into trading strategies based on them, while learning some very important details that could make all the difference in real-life trading, so stay tuned.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 465 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Presnus

    May 31, 2017 at 8:11 am

    Where is part2?

    • Mate Cser

      May 31, 2017 at 3:43 pm

      Hi Presnus, part two will be posted around the weekend, I will let you know here in the comments!

  2. elminv

    June 7, 2017 at 1:35 pm

    Hi Mate,

    Thanks for all the info, great read. What software would you recommend to do trend lines etc?

    Thanks
    E

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Op-Ed

Crypto Investors: Be Aware of Your Trading Options

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It helps to get the work done early so when you do hear of a project you’re interested in, you can get your money in it fast rather than finding out your preferred exchange doesn’t have access to it. I try to treat this as an opportunity to examine your trading processes, and find out if there is a better option for managing your money.

Developing a Holistic System

One thing I’ve talked about before, but bears repeating is that systems matter and a lot of money can be saved over time if you are repeating something enough. Once in a while, it pays off to do some additional research that will save you a compounding amount of money over time.

First, you must go through a realization, depending on the cryptocurrency, there might be a different option that serves you better. No exchange will be “best” in all categories or situations. Knowing this, you would want to plot out a preference chart that tells you when you would use each of them, or at least compare each time.

Your goal should always be to get a cryptocurrency while paying the lowest amount of fees (but without investing a significant amount of time in facilitating the purchase). I don’t think any of us are dealing with the sort of money that would justify spending a few hours verifying with a niche exchange just for the lowest possible fee.

Examining Options

Centralized exchanges are, as the name would suggest, run by centralized entities and have all the benefits and costs that come with that. You will generally find that Binance has most coins, and for those that are not listed there, you have Bittrex.

Where you’ll really get hurt here is when you are trading altcoin for altcoin and can’t find an exchange that has both. Then you’ll need to send BTC from one exchange to the other in order to make your purchase after making the first sale.

This can result in 5 different transactions (assuming you count the initial deposit from your wallet and final withdrawal to your wallet). The resulting fees can be quite high (almost 10%).

Further Experiments

Once you move on from centralized exchanges, you encounter exchanges that are more decentralized and have lower fees, but also offer lower liquidity. Kyber Network is one exchange I’ve experimented with, and although it has slightly lower fees, the GAS costs occasionally end up being higher. It is considered to be more decentralized but not fully decentralized.

Decentralization is usually determined by the classification of the order books and who holds the liquidity. Some exchanges carry an inventory or “liquidity pool” and others will facilitate trades between buyers/sellers. As you would guess, the former commands more costs which are then passed onto traders.

I eventually tried experiment with Faast (further along on the decentralized spectrum) that ended up being the cheapest, but one trial is never enough to come to final conclusions. The point of all of this is it took me a few hours, but yielded some solid insights as to which exchanges will save me money and where I should check prices first. From now on, I will look at Kyber and Faast as first options, and then move to more centralized options if I think they’ll be cheaper or better.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Trading 101

Insights Into Bitcoin Futures Contracts: Part 2

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Bitcoin futures

This article is the second piece dedicated to explaining bitcoin futures and how they impact the underlying price of BTC.

Periods of Validity

Bitcoin futures are instruments with a limited maturity date. Each contract has its own maturity date (the date of completion of the transaction), after which the contract is considered invalid. According to the validity period, futures are divided into quarterly and serial.

Most futures are quarterly futures. These are standardized contracts for the purchase/sale of transaction objects that are executed in the last month of each season. The last trading day, as a rule, falls on the period from the 15th to the 20th day of each last quarterly month and is indicated by the following symbols:

H – March
M – June
U – September
Z – December

Serial futures are intermediate contracts whose maturity date falls on any other month of the year that is different from the last quarterly. The last trading day of such futures, as a rule, falls on the third Friday of the month. The closing date of the contract is specified in the specification of the futures agreement.

Bitcoin futures present on CME and CBOE and have their own expiration dates:

  • For CME contracts, this is the last Friday of the month or the day preceding it if a holiday falls;
  • For CBOE contracts, the expiration date is the second business day before the third Friday of the month.

Futures Trading Terms

In 2018, direct work with Bitcoin futures is supported on several cryptocurrency exchanges, including OKCoin and BitMEX. As Hacked reported, during the height of the recent downturn, transaction volumes on BitMEX surged to over 40% of the entire market.

If you want to trade Bitcoin futures on regulated platforms through an intermediary broker, you can choose one of two exchanges: CBOE and CME.

Sellers and buyers enter into a contract with the exchange, and all further interactions between them pass through the clearing house of the exchange. Futures trading in Bitcoins consists of three stages:

  1. Entry into the position: At this step, the trader, buying futures, predicts the movement of cryptocurrency value.
  2. Waiting stage: When the trader’s forecast is correct, and the value of the asset moves in the right direction, he chooses the most appropriate moment to close his position. If the forecast is not correct, then the trader must determine the moment when you can leave the market, having suffered minimal losses.
  3. Closing Stage: This is the last stage of futures trading, in which the futures holder sells a contract and fixes its profit or loss.

When futures are bought, the trader pays only the exchange commission and pays the security amount for the contract. Usually, the size of the security collateral is in the range of 4-10% of the amount of the futures agreement. Due to the strong volatility of cryptocurrency, for bitcoin futures, the size of the collateral is always increased and can reach up to 30-50%, but average is 10-20%. The less financial risks, the less will be the size of the collateral amount.

One unit of trading on the CBOE exchange is equal to 1 bitcoin (XBT ticker), and the size of the futures contract on the CME platform consists of 5 bitcoins (BTC ticker). Bitcoin futures is a settlement type of contract, and the execution takes place by determining the difference between the cost of opening a position and the value of the settlement index on the day the futures are closed. Financial indexes are administered by a special party.

How to Trade

Bitcoin futures trading does not have any particular secrets or differences from other trading instruments. The scenario is the same as in the use of other trading tools: to make a profit, you need to predict which direction the bitcoin price will go. You build a forecast for a certain period of time and buy a futures contract.

For example, the most straightforward scheme for using a Bitcoin futures contract looks like this: knowing that the cost of bitcoin will go up, at the time of writing you can buy two-month futures for 10 bitcoins at the price of $4,000 USD. If your predictions come true, and the cost of BTC really goes up, you just have to follow Bitcoin quotes in the market. If during the contract term, the price of Bitcoin rises to $4,500, you can sell futures without waiting for the maturity date and earn your $ 5,000 ($500 profit x 10 bitcoins).

You can get such a profit without Bitcoin futures; it is enough to actually buy 10 Bitcoins and wait for the quotes change in the right direction. But in this case, you will have to operate on the full value of the asset: 10 x $4,000 = $40,000. But when buying Bitcoin futures, you will need to pay only brokerage fees and pay a deposit of 10-20% on average of the futures amount ($4,000-$8,000).

As with any trading instrument, futures trading requires not only basic financial literacy but also a balanced approach to planning, analyzing and attention to details. You should study well all the conditions of the exchange, the schedule of its work, commission, fees, etc.

In order to be able to enter into a futures contract, you will need to open a brokerage account, and each exchange independently decides whether it will allow you to trade on its site or not. Margin requirements are also set by the brokers themselves.

Many trading platforms can protect assets from sudden changes in their value in various ways. For example, on the CBOE exchange, there are such rules for suspension of trading, when the price of cryptocurrency begins to change dramatically. In particular: if the cost quickly rises or falls 10%, then the trades will be stopped for 2 minutes; if the course rises or falls by 20%, the use of the financial instrument will be stopped for 5 minutes.

Futures prices also have different price formations. For example, CME sets prices, taking into account data from the crypto exchanges platforms Bitstamp, Kraken, Coinbase Pro, and ItBit, and CBOE forms the value of the futures contract, starting from the exchange rate on the Gemini exchange.

The Impact of Futures on the Bitcoin Price

There are some concerns that bitcoin futures can be used for aggressive trading. However, if the value of such contracts went out of control, then arbitrators would have intervened.

Bitcoin futures are speculative instruments that allow you to influence the value of BTC without even owning it. Critics, including some from the futures industry, argue that such contracts are premature and, in the worst case, represent a systemic risk, given the underlying volatility of the crypto market.

However, the use of futures on Bitcoin has two significant consequences:

  1. Bitcoin futures, unlike cryptocurrency itself, can be traded on regulated exchanges and this is excellent news for traders concerned about the lack of regulators in the field of digital money.
  2. New trading tools open up opportunities for using Bitcoin in areas where cryptocurrency trading is prohibited. And this will open the door to broader participation in the cryptocurrency market of giant companies and investors from different countries.

Futures contracts will bring more liquidity to the market, which, in turn, will simplify the conduct of operations with cryptocurrency and make trade more profitable. Their use is primarily intended to balance price fluctuations in underlying assets.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.9 stars on average, based on 43 rated postsVladislav Semjonov has a legal and financial background. He has been involved in crypto space since early 2017 in both ICO advising positions in several ICO consultancy firms, and as an ICO analyst for VC. He began contributing for Hacked.com in April 2017.




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Trading 101

Insights Into Bitcoin Futures Contracts: Part 1

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Bitcoin futures

In December last year, Bitcoin achieved an all-time high of around $20,000 USD. One of the main factors that influenced such a price increase was the introduction of a futures contract on Bitcoin. Although the gains largely preceded the launch of the futures contract, they were partly driven on expectations of a new derivatives product being offered by CBOE/CME. In this article, I will try to explain the principle of a futures contract and how it can impact bitcoin’s price.

On 10th December 2017, CME Group launched trading in bitcoin futures, and a week later such actions were carried out by its competitor Cboe Global Markets.

The launch of CME futures has increased the legal status of cryptocurrency and has also boosted investor interest in the digital asset. The key question here is: how can this instrument make you additional money?

What are Futures Contracts?

In the world of trading, there are many different ways to buy and sell assets on exchanges, and some of them are very risky, such as margin trading. Futures contracts are a way to transfer risk, depending on how aggressively you want to trade. This concept is not new, as it has existed for decades and now applies to Bitcoin.

A Bitcoin futures contract is an agreement between two parties to a transaction that buys or sells BTC at a predetermined price at a future date. That is, the futures buyer acquires the right to sell BTC coins in the future at a fixed rate, and the futures seller announces his consent to accept the cryptocurrency on the settlement date at a fixed price.

History of Futures

The idea of creating futures contracts was initially to protect manufacturers and suppliers from sudden or significant fluctuations in commodity prices. This is a written agreement that determines the size (quantity), cost, evaluation (quality) and conditions for delivery of the goods on a specific date in the future. These instruments are traded (bought and sold) between producers, dealers or speculators (i.e., traders seeking to profit from price movements).

The first registered commodity futures transactions for the sale of rice occurred at the beginning of the XVII century in Japan. These contracts also made their way to the United States in the early 1800s when many agricultural products began to be produced. Most of these products had a limited shelf life, and the quality of stored products usually deteriorated over time, so the prices could vary significantly. Therefore, the first contracts for the future price appeared, which allowed the seller to get money for the goods before delivery.

The first American exchange was established in 1848 and was called the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Its creation was preceded by the emergence of railways and telegraph, which connected the trading center with the agricultural market.

A group of brokers working in this council was able to establish a standardized and more efficient method of exchanging goods, thanks to the launch of futures contracts on the exchange. Instead of managing numerous individual agreements between interested parties, they developed futures that were identical in terms of asset quality, delivery dates, and conditions, and simplified the entire process of buying and selling future supply at the current price.

How Do Futures Contracts Work?

In practice, futures contracts look like this. For example, a farmer concludes futures agreement with a dealer that he will supply him with 10 tons of corn in early August. Both parties to the transaction receive their “guarantee” – the farmer will be paid a certain amount for the corn, and the dealer fixes his buying price in the future.

Such agreements became very widespread, and are even used as collateral for bank loans and can also be transferred. If the farmer decided that he will not sell his corn, he can directly sell his contract to another farmer. A dealer may also do so;  if his plans have changed and he no longer needs corn, he can always resell his futures on the exchange to another intermediary.

In Bitcoin futures, you also fix the price and a certain number of coins that will be sold or bought in the future. It is a tool to transfer or accept the risk. Parties to the agreements may take different positions:

  1. Buyers who have a hope to buy coins at a better price when the value of the asset increases enter into a trade from a long position.
  2. The selling side works from a short position, which will be able to get a more attractive price in the future, having successfully sold its product when its value starts to go down.

On the trading floor futures contract can be used throughout the duration. The parties may also place money in escrow to reduce the risk of the counterparty during the term of the futures contract. This is usually done only when the price begins to show strong movement to a long or short position held either by the buyer or the seller.

Types of Futures

There are two separate types of futures contracts:

  • Physical delivery futures, which are an agreement for a specific asset that will be transferred at the end of the term of the futures. An asset can be any commodity or money (oil, grain, cryptocurrency, gold, etc.).
  • Trade or settlement (non-deliverable) futures, which are a type of contract that involve the conclusion of an agreement without physically transferring the object.

Bitcoin futures produced to-date are the settlement type of the trade agreement since there is no physical transfer of the asset. All financial transactions on futures contracts are a practical tool in trading since they can perform two actions:

  1. Hedging (insurance of price movement risks)
  2. Speculation (the possibility of quick earnings on the difference in the value of the subject of the transaction)

Players involved in speculation are very interested in bitcoin’s price volatility because it gives them the opportunity to open short and long positions several times a week and make good money. Experienced traders who use technical analysis to predict movements in the market quite often make profits on futures transactions with Bitcoin.

In the next article, I will speak more about terms of BTC futures and where one can trade them.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.9 stars on average, based on 43 rated postsVladislav Semjonov has a legal and financial background. He has been involved in crypto space since early 2017 in both ICO advising positions in several ICO consultancy firms, and as an ICO analyst for VC. He began contributing for Hacked.com in April 2017.




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