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Analysis

Trade Recommendation: Short Bitcoin (?)

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I usually do not trade with cryptocurrencies any more, but this might be a golden opportunity arising. Bitcoin has bounced back to 2800 USD per bitcoin (ish..). The uptrend the last couple of days may be caused by the BIP91 agreement:

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https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-bounces-back-as-bip-91-restores-confidence/

However, I’m still bearish for Bitcoin for the coming months and possibly years, as I’ve written here:

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Top 10 Cryptocurrencies are Tanking – Prediction of the Bitcoin Price in 2017 and 2018

I’ve put a sell order at 2793 and 2759 USD per bitcoin. The current stop loss I’m dealing with is 2821 and 2823 USD per bitcoin. As you can see from the timeframe graph below, MACD isn’t showing much, the RSI is quite neutral and the Stoch is heading upwards. These instruments does not give any good indication of what might happen in the coming days, or hours. The bitcoin price might bounce up, and I might lose it all. But when I get the “Big Short” correct, I know I’ll keep my position as long as I can. I am still very bearish for Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies for the coming months. When that is said: I might be totally wrong! Remember, you are responsible for your own trades. You cannot hold me responsible if you copy my trades and they go totally wrong. Have a nice evening all!

 

I also want to throw in this chart by DLavrov from Tradingview:

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Mauro

    July 23, 2017 at 9:21 pm

    Whats your maximum downtarget?

    • Jonas Borchgrevink

      July 23, 2017 at 9:22 pm

      I think it’s around $2400. But I’ll monitor the situation, I might try to hold on even longer. Maybe below $2000.

  2. aliakhtar

    July 23, 2017 at 9:41 pm

    what is your rationale for being bearish and especially long term bearish….i think 3k hit will drive it even higher and segwit success eventually will drive even higher.

    • Jonas Borchgrevink

      July 23, 2017 at 10:12 pm

      Don’t you think the market has already priced that in? I do. But I might be wrong.. 🙂

      • P. H. Madore

        July 23, 2017 at 11:53 pm

        You are. Unfortunately the market will see that $3k and $1.9k before things even out. I think the shake out will result in more eggs in all baskets, particularly more technically adept efforts than Bitcoin.

  3. minusninedioptres

    July 23, 2017 at 10:21 pm

    Shouldn’t the idea be to spread knowledge and awareness about use of bitcoin as a decentralized cryptocurrency distributed ledger? Get more people of participate in the market place Instead just using it as an instrument for making money. That seems morally wrong for blockchain. For making money we already have the stock market. What am i missing?

  4. oliviers

    July 23, 2017 at 11:02 pm

    Isn’t the double top too obvious ? Double bottom or top didn’t work in the past on BTC.

  5. motboy

    July 24, 2017 at 6:11 am

    How will you approach your profit target? Looks like $2,600 would be key lower resistance – low 2k if this breaks?

  6. DeadDuckWalking

    July 24, 2017 at 2:05 pm

    I get a bit bored with the personal success stories. Can we please have the ICO analysis back because lately the news on this site is getting uninteresting!! I didnt join for this but luckily I can cancel on a monthly basis. Please get back to the real information and keep the (contradicting) personal gain stories to a minimum.

  7. alexandrathompson314

    July 24, 2017 at 10:50 pm

    I have to agree with DeadDuckWalking. Many of us are fed up with the many self-proclaimed “gurus” online. Please focus on quantifiable, real, actionable information for us traders. Thanks so much!

  8. motboy

    July 25, 2017 at 7:54 am

    Looking like a good call this morning (UK time) Jonas. Can’t see any news re what’s spooked the market but looks like a decent correction. Moved my profit stop well below my entry so all upside from here on in. Nice one.

  9. birchreed

    July 25, 2017 at 9:15 am

    Friends, I’m looking for some guidance. I have a considerable amount of Bitcoin on COinbase in a wallet. I’m not an experienced Bitcoin trader and need a seasoned person to advise me…..Here’s my question: Coinbase allows me to sell only $15K in US dollars per week. I want to do a sale of 50 Bitcoins. Is there a different wallet to use or service? Does anyone know a consultant who could guide me through this? It;s a serious inquiry and I will pay a fee for help. THANK YOU!

    • motboy

      July 25, 2017 at 9:58 pm

      Tier 3 authenticated users on Kraken can withdraw 25k per day. Otherwise I’m guessing you could flog your coins on local bitcoin or one of the pair to pair sites.

  10. motboy

    July 25, 2017 at 1:22 pm

    Jonas, great call re the short. Interested in hearing where you think BTC may bottom out…

    • Jonas Borchgrevink

      July 25, 2017 at 7:14 pm

      It may be at the bottom now.. But for the long term horizon I still feel we are heading down.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Tops $700 as Short-Term Sell Signals Pop Up

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The major cryptocurrencies are having another strong session, with all of the top 10 coins sporting gains, adding more than 5% on average since yesterday. The largest digital currencies are trading in clear short-term uptrends, with the broad declining trendlines also being broken in most cases.

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That said, the short-term momentum indicators are overbought with regards to altcoins, and now several majors triggered short-term sell signals following the first signal by IOTA yesterday. While this doesn’t mean that traders should exit all short-term positions here, taking some profits and/or setting tighter stop losses is advised, as there will likely be opportunities with much better risk/reward profiles to re-enter the market.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin finally topped the $9000-$9200 resistance zone after a period of relative weakness, further boosting the already positive overall picture. The momentum of the move is still not stellar, but the coin is still not severely overbought, and although a deeper pullback is still likely soon and short-term traders shouldn’t open new positions here, a test of the $10,000 level is still possible in the coming days. The long-term setup is clearly bullish, and investors could still add to their holdings during the short-term pullbacks, with further support found at $8400.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continued to rally, despite the already overbought reading, and now the coin is severely overbought, and a correction is very likely in the coming days, so short-term traders should exit their positions or use tight stop losses here. We expect the rally to continue after a correction, and long-term investors should hold on to their coins. Resistance zones are ahead near $735 and $780, while primary support is between $625 and $645.

Altcoins Overbought but Uptrend Intact

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While correlations are getting lower and lower among the major coins, which is a bullish sign, most of them are already overbought from a short-term perspective. Although further gains are still possible, chasing those coins higher here is not a good strategy, even as the long-term setups remain encouraging.

Litecoin, ETC, and NEO are not severely overbought yet, while Ripple, Stellar, and Cardano are already in short-term corrections clearing the overbought readings, but traders should be cautious with Dash, EOS, Monero, and IOTA as they are ripe for a move lower.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 231 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Pre Market: Dollar Pulls Back from 7-Week High as Stocks Rebound

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Global equities are attempting to rally after drifting lower for three sessions, with Asia leading the bounce thanks to rumors regarding possible monetary easing steps in China. The rumors surfaced on the heels of the Yen’s plunge which followed Bank of Japan governor Kuroda’s dovish words. Mr. Kuroda is worried about the stubbornly low inflation rate, and hinted on a delay of the ”normalization” process of the central bank’s monetary policies.

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USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As a reminder, the BOJ now owns the majority of the stock ETFs in Japan, but we might reach a point where it will own the whole float (why not?), while also technically controlling the whole Japanese government bond “market”. Meanwhile, the Euro also got under pressure lately thanks to the string of negative economic surprises and Mario Draghi’s cautious words regarding growth, and with Thursday’s ECB meeting looming, forex traders could be in for a very active week of trading.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar reached a 7-week high against the Euro yesterday, while the Dollar index closed at the highest level since January, and although the Greenback is correcting the recent rally today, it seems that the growing number of Dollar bears might be in for more pain after a likely short-term correction, as Treasury yields continue to rise relentlessly.

US 2-Year Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stocks are having a relatively quiet week so far, but the bearish trend of the recent sessions remains dominant despite today’s bounce, even as volatility is still low, and trade war fears and geopolitical tensions have been easing somewhat lately. We switched to a bearish bias last week, and we maintain that the stocks look vulnerable here, although the short-term overbought readings have been cleared.

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bulls still have the hope that the major US indices can resume the recovery and launch a rally towards the all-time highs, but unless we see a quick move above last week’s highs, bears remain in control, and another test of the correction lows is likely.

On a slightly positive note, European equities enjoyed some relative strength in the last couple of days, as they were boosted by the weakness in the Euro, but looking at the broader picture, the Old Continent continues to be among the weakest regions globally since the start of the correction.

Commodities Mixed but Commodity Currencies Still Weak

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Interestingly, the Aussie and the Canadian Dollar are still under selling pressure today, despite the risk rally, and that fact strengthens our short-term bearish view on stocks, as they have been reliably leading equities since February.

In the meantime, commodities have been trading in a choppy fashion amid the Dollar rally, as gold has been pushed back below $1330 again, continuing its lengthy consolidation phase, while crude oil slightly retreated from its multi-year high near the $70 per barrel level concerning the WTI contract.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 231 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum Break-Out of Declining Trends

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The altcoin-led rally continued since our previous look at the long-term charts, and the major coins all confirmed a new short-term uptrend. Most of the largest digital currencies also broke out from their broad declining trends, as the total value of the segment is now more than 50% above the level around the correction low.

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BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The overall picture remained positive, with only Bitcoin’s weakness causing headaches for crypto bulls, as the most valuable coin is hovering close to declining trendline that dominated trading throughout the first quarter of the year.

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Despite the short-term weakness, BTC is still among the stronger majors from a long-term perspective, and with the secular uptrend clearly being intact, long-term investors should hold on to their coins and add to their holdings on the short-term pullbacks.

Crucial resistance is still just ahead between $9000-$9200, with further levels at $10,000 and $11,300, while support is found near $8400, $7650, and in the $6150-$6250 zone.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum built upon its recent relative strength, and the coin broke out convincingly above the declining trendline, and reached the next key resistance zone between $625 and $640 before the momentum of the move stalled.

While there are still several strong zones ahead, with the closest ones near $725 and $845, barring a quick move back below the declining trendline, the coin should continue the advance. With the long-term MACD still just in neutral territory, long-term investors could add to their holdings during short-term corrections, with key support levels at $500, $450, and $400.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 231 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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