• XLM bears are pressing hard for a drop below the big $0.10 mark, as markets remains down across the board.
• There could be room for another 8% price drop if support is broken, looking via the XLM/BTC chart view.

Stellar’s XLM is subject to giving up the big $0.10 level. Across the board there have been a several key psychological price breaks. Cryptocurrencies are being forced to give way, due to strength of the current bear market. When prices drop below these closely looked at levels, it only seems to spark further worry and panic. A fresh wave of selling pressure is then invited. Over the past five weeks, XLM/USD has fallen a chunky 63%, from the $0.29 territory, down to a recent low of $0.1010.

Consolidation Mode – Bears Rubbing Paws Together

XLM/USD daily chart

Over the past four sessions, there has been some stabilization following the deep push on 6^th December, where XLM/USD fell to $0.1010. The price is moving within consolidation mode, something that is seen across the market. Technically, this only spells more danger – a calm before the storm potentially for cryptocurrencies. This type of behavior has been seen over and over again during this aggressively stubborn downward trend.

What if $0.10 is Breached?

As noted on numerous occasions, this move is uncharted territory already, falling from the heights seen at the start of the year. Market participants are already fueled with a serious amount of FUD, so such technical breaks will only cause more damage. This isn’t due to anything fundamental relating to the Stellar foundation, as their developments continue to remain very much sound and strong. One must gauge how further this can fall, via XLM/BTC chart view.

Technical Review – XLM/BTC

XLM/BTC daily chart

XLM/BTC continues to flirt with a critical area of support, and a failure to hold will be catastrophic. This zone held in the most recent fall on 7^th December; despite the long lower wick below, the price still managed to close above. XLM/BTC has not been and closed below 0.000035 territory since September 19^th. Should a breach occur, which if the current pace of momentum maintains its course could very well happen, another 8% drop may follow.

Lastly, it is worth keeping an eye out of the potential formation of a head and shoulder pattern. The left shoulder and head have been crafted via XLM/BTC daily chart. There is certainly a possibility that the bulls come back to life, forcing a bounce at the above-mentioned support. A right shoulder could then move towards heights back within the $0.00004000-4500 range. This is where the next major of supply can be observed.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Ken Chigbo

4.5 stars on average, based on 79 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.

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Factom (FCT) appears to be paying the price for its recent foray outwith market bounds after the coin price sunk 35% over twelve hours on Tuesday. The drop compounds a near week-long reversal for FCT in which the coin lost over 55% of its value.

Factom’s Bullish Month

Factom (FCT) felt a miraculous 391% increase to its market value during the otherwise bearish months of November and December. The surge was helped by a 39,900% increase to trade volumes, all processed via the FCT/BTC pair – the only one listed for Factom among prominent exchanges.

The surge coincided with the adoption of Factom’s Harmony blockchain-as-a-service product by Equator – a prominent mortgage service provider.

Adding to the joy for Factom investors was the news that Chinese online video service, Yooya, would be using Factom’s tech to offer both private and public blockchain services on its platform.

The Yooya news came right at the start of December, just in time to pump the FCT valuation a few more bucks before the peak, and subsequent plunge, on December 6th.

Factom Falls

From a peak of $18.57 last Thursday – a near seven month high at the time – the dollar valuation of FCT fell to $8.29 in the five days leading up to December 11th.

That’s a 55% drop in less than seven days, and it only grew worse as the week went on. Today, FCT fell 35% in the twelve hours which made up the Asian session, as BTC traders took advantage of BTC’s current lows and cashed out their FCT gains.

The subsequent rebound to the $10.00 range just a few hours later suggests the volatility is not yet over for Factom – a suspicion given some legs by the sudden, large fluctuations in the coin’s trade volume.

Round Two Ahead for FCT/BTC?

Trade volumes for FCT sunk from $3.7 million to $1.3 million on Tuesday as the coin sunk to the aforementioned $8 range.

Only minutes later, a very similar chunk of change entered FCT’s books and returned trade volumes to the $4 million range. This coincided with another pump in the coin price to the $10 range, and it now looks like Factom might be getting played by just a few heavy hands.

Given the 20% rebound in just a few hours today, the likelihood of FCT remaining where it is seems slim. Up or down, but definitely not stable. Get onto Upbit, Poloniex or Bittrex to take advantage of the FCT/BTC pair’s volatility.

Factom’s recent surge drew eyes to the project for the first time in what seems like a while. Factom was highly regarded when first launched in 2015, but fell out of the media spotlight after being drowned out by the hype of 2017-2018’s ICO period.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Greg Thomson

4.5 stars on average, based on 103 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.

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The cryptocurrency segment continues to be under heavy selling pressure following the weekend rally attempt, and although all of the majors are still above last week’s lows, the strong short-term downtrend remains dominant. The long-term picture is overwhelmingly bearish as well, and there are coins showing meaningful relative strength, so sellers are clearly still clearly in control of the market, and the lack of leadership is still apparent.

With that in mind, traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions even in the slightly stronger coins, and odds still favor the continuation of the bear market, with new lows likely in the coming days. That said, a successful test or a failed breakdown could trigger a larger scale correction, with the broader picture still being deeply oversold and with investor sentiment still being very negative. For now, there is no sign of an imminent rally, with all eyes on the $3000 in Bitcoin.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been drifting lower ever since touching the $3600 level during the weekend, and the now the most valuable coin is close to its prior bear market low, pushing the total value of the market back below $110 billion. Today’s selloff took the coin below $3400, and a test of the next long-term support zone near $3000 is now likely in the coming days.

At least a move above $3600 would be needed for a meaningful improvement in the coin’s technical setup, but for now, sellers remain in control on both time-frames and our trend model is on clear sell signals both short- and long-term, with further strong resistance ahead in the $4000-$4050 zone.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is also close to last week’s bear market low and the coin is clearly stuck in a steep short-term downtrend with no sign of relative strength or bullish momentum since the failed weekend rally. The coin is also trading below the strong $95-$100 support/resistance zone, and with support just being found between $73 and $75, a new low is likely in the coming days.

Traders and investors should still stay away from entering new positions here, with further strong resistance zones ahead near $120 and $130.

Litecoin and Ripple on the Verge of Breaking Down

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major altcoins are all in week technical setups, and even Ripple, which is in a slightly better long-term position, is looking bearish from a short-term perspective. The second largest coin is trading below the $0.30 level, and a test of the next zone near $0.28 seems imminent.

The prior bear market low near $0.26 could also be in danger in the coming period, and traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here, with resistance levels above $0.30 ahead at $0.32, $0.3550, and $0.3750.

Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is very close to breaking down below the $23 support zone today, and the coin is showing relative weakness compared to the other major, as it was the case ever since last week’s bearish shift. Our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames, and a new low seem very likely in the coming days, so traders shouldn’t enter new positions here despite the deeply oversold long-term momentum readings. The next major support zone is found between $20 mad $20.50 with strong resistance ahead near $26 and between $30 and $30.50.

Stellar/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Since the key breakdown in Stellar, the coin remained relatively weak, and the strong selling pressure is still apparent in its market. The recent rally attempt failed to recapture even the $0.125 resistance, and now a dip below $0.11 and a test of the $0.10 level seems likely in the coming weeks. Further strong resistance is ahead just below $0.14 and traders and investors should still not enter new positions here.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Mate Cser

4.7 stars on average, based on 413 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

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