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Analysis

Trade Recommendation: EURCHF

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The market bounces from 1.15200 level and RSI confirms price reversal in the overbought zone. We can see a bearish divergence formed by the price, MACD and RSI and it’s a strong trend reversal signal. ADX line of DMI indicator falls and it gives a signal that the upward movement is not so strong as before. DMI indicator allows open short trades. MACD confirms downward movement. In spite of the up trend, we have signals confirming the trend reversal and further downward movement. It’s time to sell and we have to spot the entry levels for placing pending orders.

Moving Averages with different periods are the support lines and it will be logical to trade based on breakout signals below these lines. If the price breaks one of these support lines, we’ll join to possible downward movement. Simple Moving Average with period 20 is a good entry level. We can place sell-stop orders below this support line. It’s 1.14300 level. Stop orders must be placed at 1.15300 level which is higher than the local swing high. Profit targets should be based on Simple Moving Averages with periods 50 and 100. If the market moves upward and breaks the resistance level without activation our sell orders, we’ll have to delete them and wait for a new trading opportunity. Recommended risk size for this trade is up to 3% from your deposit.    

Sell: 1.14300
Stop: 1.15300
Profit Targets: 1.13010 and 1.11810

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.3 stars on average, based on 44 rated postsDmitriy Lavrov is a professional trader, technical analyst and money manager with 10 years trading experience. The main covered markets are Forex, Commodity, Cryptocurrency. Provides personal education for those who are interested in profitable trading. Entries in TOP 10 among TradingView authors.




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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Synfl00d

    August 3, 2017 at 1:33 pm

    My opinion is that the swiss federal bank will try to support this new high at all costs. Don’t think they let it down again to 1.11 without intervention by them.

  2. Dmitriy Lavrov

    August 3, 2017 at 4:36 pm

    The market made good upward movement. We should expect for 50% retracement.

  3. Tarik

    August 3, 2017 at 10:44 pm

    How can I trade that?
    I suppose you are not talking about actually getting CHF paper. Is there an exchange/broker online platform that you suggest dealing it?

    • Dmitriy Lavrov

      August 4, 2017 at 11:37 am

      You trade this pair like you trade others. The same broker. You don’t need special terms.

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Altcoins

Cardano Price Analysis: ADA/USDT Smashes Out of Wedge, but Saved by Critical Demand Zone

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  • ADA/USDT testing a huge area of demand and a breach by the bears could be catastrophic.
  • Cardano Foundation confirm reshuffle, as Michael Parsons, the former chairman, steps down.

ADA/USDT has continued to be victim of downside pressure after its latest bull run. The price had gained a chunky 20%, between 31st October and 6th November. ADA/USDT managed to peak just above $0.08200 territory. This was the highest level seen since 15th October. Shortly after, gradual selling started to take place, to then see all the gains plus much more taken by the heavy bears.  It appears current bull runs are not sustainable, very much vulnerable to being sold- particularly as these tend to happen in an explosive manner within a short time frame.

Cardano News Flow

Cardano this week made an announcement that Michael Parsons, the former chairman, has resigned from his position at the Cardano Foundation. Prior to this rapid departure, there had been much history of community members demanding for him to be removed. The position will be filled by the Council Member Pascal Schmid, a University of St. Gallen graduate and a financial expert. Cardano’s creator, Charles Hoskinson, accused the foundation and Parsons of neglecting their duties, in addition to bringing in close friends and family into top positions within the organization.

Technical Review – ADA/USDT

ADA/USDT daily chart

ADA/USDT is running at three consecutive sessions in the red- a move which is inline with the broader market, a mass cooling across all major cryptocurrencies. The price was forced to drop a hefty 13% in the late part of the session on Wednesday. Price action was initially moving within a wedge pattern. This had been the case since the back end of September. ADA/USDT was contained within this formation.  Given the noted heavy selling pressure that was seen across the market late Wednesday, the lower trend line of the wedge was forced to give way to sellers.

Looking to the downside, ADA/USDT has been saved from further declines thanks to a critical demand zone. The area is seen tracking from $0.07000 down to $0.06000. It has proven to see strong buyers swoop in. The price last traded down here between 12-18th September. Buyers kicked in to then drive ADA/USDT to the north, seeing gains just shy of some 50%. The bulls were able to run the price up to $0.09500 into a known supply area. A peak was seen, and this rally was then gradually sold.

Should the above-mentioned demand area fail to hold and see a daily close below, it could be catastrophic. A development such as described, could leave the door wide open to a fresh wave of heavy selling.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 50 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Pre-Market Analysis And Chartbook: Markets Flat Ahead of Key Economic Data

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Wednesday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,729 0.02%
DAX 30 11,467 -0.05%
WTI Crude Oil 56.16 1.59%
GOLD 1,202 -0.03%
Bitcoin 6,211 -0.80%
EUR/USD 1.1287 -0.01%

As traders awaited the key US economic releases of the week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Sales report, financial markets were relatively quiet and flat before the Wall Street open, but things got volatile since then, despite the muted CPI reading. The progress in the Brexit negotiations and the liquidation event in crude oil were making headlines today, although the advance in the Pound stalled, as equity markets and in general risk assets are still under clear selling pressure following the turmoil in October. The second half of the week will likely see strong moves across asset classes, and given the negative technicals, odds favor a risk-off shift globally.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar is consolidation after its move to new 16-months highs on Monday, and for now, the currency failed to confirm the break-out, at least as measured by the Dollar index. The EUR/USD is showing a slightly different picture compared to the broader measure, and the common currency is still in a steep downtrend, even as it is back near the key 1.13 level, retracing a large chunk of Monday’s move.

A durable recovery above 1.13 could signal a failed break-down and another consolidation phase in the pair, with the long-term momentum indicators still being oversold, but the broad downtrend is clearly intact, and long positions should only be considered as short-term trades.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

In equities, we continue to see bearish technicals from a broader perspective, and although the post-Fed selloff halted, for now, the re-test of the October lows still seems likely in the coming weeks. The Nasdaq is still relatively weak compared to the other major US benchmarks, and the tech benchmark is the closest to its lows, even after yesterday’s bounce.

The overnight session saw a slight bullish bias in stocks, with the indices holding on to above their weekly lows, but we still view the short-term rally attempts as selling opportunities given the hostile technicals across the globe.

Crude Oil in Turmoil as Copper Holds Support, For Now

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bounce that we have been expecting in crude oil didn’t materialize despite the deeply oversold momentum readings, as the dip below the $58-$60 zone triggered a liquidation event in the commodity. The worst day for oil in 3 years saw the WTI contract falling below $55 per barrel, its lowest level in a year. Today, oil is attempting a recovery, and we continue to expect a rally up to the $63-$65 zone in the coming weeks.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Elsewhere in the commodity segment, we are seeing further signs of weakness, despite the pullback in the Dollar. Gold is having a flat quiet day, so far, hovering near the $1200 price level, while despite the renewed trade-deal optimism, copper failed to bounce higher substantially amid the slight risk-on shift. The industrial metal is trading just above its recent swing low, and a move below that would be a sign that the lengthy consolidation phase is ending and the broader downtrend is about to resume.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 394 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

EOS Update: Preparing for a Big Bullish Move

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EOS has been stuck in a range since August 8, 2018. It’s been trading between $6.65 and $4.50 with a midpoint of $5.30. If you’re a day trader, the range is wide enough to exploit and generate serious profits. However, this is not the case for many retail investors who bought the bottom and are anticipating the next big rally. They’d want to know when EOS (EOS/USD) would make another substantial move.

The good news is we are certain that it’s soon, very likely within a month. The next question would be the direction. This is something we’ll never be 100% certain of. However, we looked at the charts and we’re confident that this move will usher in a new higher high.

In this article, we reveal how this coin is preparing for a big bullish move.

Unnerving Lack of Volatility

EOS has been slowly flatlining since September 2018. The trading range has become tighter and tighter with each passing week. You can see the almost non-existent volatility in the weekly RSI. The indicator has moved within a three-point range (42 – 45) in the last two months.

Weekly RSI range

In addition to the weekly RSI, the daily trading range has been suffocating. The last time Bollinger bands were this tight was about a year ago. It was at the point before EOS launched a massive bull run.

Daily Chart

Before you get excited, we have to be clear that narrow trading ranges do not necessarily foretell a bull run. However, it is a prelude to a big move. It is the proverbial calm before the storm. The storm, we believe, will nourish the bellies of starving bulls.

Alleviating Resistance to Support (RS) Flip

EOS has a diagonal trendline that cuts through both the bull and bear runs. The trendline started to exist on January 20, 2018 when it acted as resistance and prevented the market from going above $15.75. The first RS flip happened on April 24 when EOS breached resistance of $12.00. This helped the market climb to $23.029 on April 29.

The diagonal trendline continued to serve as a support for EOS until June 22 when the market breached support of $9.50. This effectively flipped the support into resistance. EOS worked very hard to take back the diagonal trendline but to no avail. As a result, the market dropped to lows of $4.1778.

Diagonal trendline

The price action described above illustrates the impact of this trendline. It provides massive resistance when the market is below it. On the other hand, it offers firm support when EOS traded above it. Thus, the market would have been in a bad shape now if bulls would not have put up a strong fight. Luckily, they did.

With a series of higher lows, bulls eventually flipped the resistance into support on September 27. They also completed the retest when EOS dropped to $5.0014 on October 11. This tells us that bulls are mobilizing. It looks like they are quietly and patiently accumulating at these levels.

Promising Inverted EOS Chart

If you’re having trouble believing that EOS is starting to look bullish, then allow us to present to you the inverted chart. One look and you’ll know that this chart is prime for massive shorting.

Inverted weekly chart

This inverted chart looks like it already topped out. It tried really hard to take out resistance of $3.50 but it failed again and again. Its inability to breach the resistance led to exhaustion. You can see the rally fading in the declining volume. The market persistently rose even if volume steadily decreased. This is not a sustainable ascent.

As a result, the market appears to have broken down of an ascending triangle pattern. It is currently retesting the resistance but without volume, it is likely that the market will resume its descent. When it does, EOS will make its big move.

Bottom Line

With volatility almost non-existent, EOS appears to be preparing for a massive move. While this is something we are certain of, the direction is still not guaranteed. However, the recent RS flip of the diagonal downtrend and the inverted weekly chart make us believe that EOS is gearing up for a big bullish move.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 269 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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