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Trade Recommendation: EURCHF

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The market bounces from 1.15200 level and RSI confirms price reversal in the overbought zone. We can see a bearish divergence formed by the price, MACD and RSI and it’s a strong trend reversal signal. ADX line of DMI indicator falls and it gives a signal that the upward movement is not so strong as before. DMI indicator allows open short trades. MACD confirms downward movement. In spite of the up trend, we have signals confirming the trend reversal and further downward movement. It’s time to sell and we have to spot the entry levels for placing pending orders.

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Moving Averages with different periods are the support lines and it will be logical to trade based on breakout signals below these lines. If the price breaks one of these support lines, we’ll join to possible downward movement. Simple Moving Average with period 20 is a good entry level. We can place sell-stop orders below this support line. It’s 1.14300 level. Stop orders must be placed at 1.15300 level which is higher than the local swing high. Profit targets should be based on Simple Moving Averages with periods 50 and 100. If the market moves upward and breaks the resistance level without activation our sell orders, we’ll have to delete them and wait for a new trading opportunity. Recommended risk size for this trade is up to 3% from your deposit.    

Sell: 1.14300
Stop: 1.15300
Profit Targets: 1.13010 and 1.11810

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.2 stars on average, based on 44 rated postsDmitriy Lavrov is a professional trader, technical analyst and money manager with 10 years trading experience. The main covered markets are Forex, Commodity, Cryptocurrency. Provides personal education for those who are interested in profitable trading. Entries in TOP 10 among TradingView authors.




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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Synfl00d

    August 3, 2017 at 1:33 pm

    My opinion is that the swiss federal bank will try to support this new high at all costs. Don’t think they let it down again to 1.11 without intervention by them.

  2. Dmitriy Lavrov

    August 3, 2017 at 4:36 pm

    The market made good upward movement. We should expect for 50% retracement.

  3. Tarik

    August 3, 2017 at 10:44 pm

    How can I trade that?
    I suppose you are not talking about actually getting CHF paper. Is there an exchange/broker online platform that you suggest dealing it?

    • Dmitriy Lavrov

      August 4, 2017 at 11:37 am

      You trade this pair like you trade others. The same broker. You don’t need special terms.

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Recommendations

Trade Recommendation: Micron Technology

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Technical Overview

  • Micron Technology has experienced a 6.5-fold increase since May 2016. During this 2-year period, the stock found support at its intermediate-term trendline on numerous occasions (green trendline and arrows in Figure 1).
  • From the last retest of the intermediate-term support (last green arrow), the stock moved sharply higher, carried by a steeper support (violet trendline). The same trendline served as a resistance for two weeks in March 2018, when it was retested from below (last two violet arrows).
  • Today (April 23), the stock is breaking below its short-term support (orange trendline), after failing to remain above its 50 SMA on Friday (not shown).

Figure 1. MU Daily Chart

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Implications

  • By the time its correction is over, the stock is expected to have retested the intermediate-term support (green trendline). If the decline is severe and swift, the stock may bounce off the $40 level (i.e. target is the higher of $40 and the green trendline).
  • The stock’s 2018 Resistance (the trendline connecting the March 21 and April 18 highs) is expected to serve as a resistance (red trendline).

Outlook

  • Bearish as long as the stock is trading below its 2018 Resistance.
  • Neutral if the stock moves above the 2018 Resistance.

Trade Recommendation

  • Short at current levels ($48.75 – $49.25)
  • Target: Higher of $40 and green trendline
  • Stop: A close above the red trendline (currently at approximately $53.35, falling by roughly 40 cents/day).

 Benefits of Recommended Trade

  • A favourable risk-reward profile (roughly 1 : 2.25).
  • A sloping-down resistance used as a stop, resulting in an improving risk-reward profile of the trade as time goes by. The steep negative slope of the 2018 Resistance may potentially lead to a situation where the trade is “unsuccessful” (i.e. the stop is hit first before the target), however, still profitable. This is so as the 2018 Resistance will already be below current prices by mid-May (i.e. may get stopped out at a lower price than when the short was initiated).

Disclosure: No position

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Bitcoin Cash: Suddenly A Star Performer

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Just look at what has been happening in the prices of bitcoin and bitcoin cash.  Between December, the king of crypto fell some 65%. Since the April 1 low, bitcoin has partially recovered, gaining 31%.  Bitcoin cash really took it on the chin losing 80% in the December-April period. However, since then, BCH has been a digital darling, gaining 80%.  This ranks among the top crypto performers so far in the month of April. What’s behind the move?

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What We Have Been Missing

I have a confession to make.  For the past year bitcoin cash has pretty much flown under my radar. Here is a best efforts excuse.  Bitcoin cash has only been in existence since last August. During this time there have been so many ICOs flying around that keeping up with something which sounded like just another name for the original king of crypto didn’t seem all that important.

That was a mistake because there is quite a difference between the original and bitcoin cash.  And if it continues, someday bitcoin cash will be king. Here is what I am getting at.

All cryptocurrencies face certain limits when it comes to scaling. It is a more complex issue than simply adding more transactions to the blockchain.  A whole lot of the Gen III companies are attempting to come up with a solution to minimize the time required to confirm a block of transactions without blowing up fees.

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Bitcoin has the distinction of suffering the worst of both slow speed and bloated fees.  Back at the price peak last December transactions were limited to fewer than 10 per second while fees shot up to more than $30.  

Anyone buying bitcoin during that period for investment purposes probably didn’t care. After all, by last December, bitcoin had appreciated over 7,000%.  But if you wanted to use Bitcoin to buy a $4.50 Latte or a $75 Cuisinart coffee maker from Overstock.com, logic told you to forget about it.

Small Transaction R Us

This is where bitcoin cash came into being.  BCH became a hard fork of bitcoin, meaning that it uses the bitcoin protocols except for one important difference.  Each BCH block initially contained 8 megabits compared with just one for BTC. The whole point of BCH is to create a currency that in a medium of exchange rather than simply an investment device.

Back around August, the average transaction fee for BTC was about $0.70 (BCH was $0.08) so fees were completely overshadowed by the fixation in bitcoin’s skyrocketing price.

The Lessons From December

Long before the explosion in bitcoin fees last December work was underway on the Lightning Network.  When fully implemented by the Bitcoin community, it will reduce the gap between itself and bitcoin cash.  But that could be completely illusory based on last weeks announcement.

Around May 15 bitcoin cash plans to create a hard fork that will increase block size four fold to 32 bits.  Word of this has to be one big reason for the bitcoin cash price outperforming many of its peers. At least for the time being, BCH will have a considerable advantage both in terms of confirmation speed and fees.  

According to Bitinfocharts, current bitcoin fees are 0.199 compared with 0.0035 for bitcoin cash, while mining profits are about equal. This is a data point that is most impressive because the BCH maximize block size has yet to be increased.  BCH is attracting smaller average transaction size. In other words, their plan is working.

The Unpaved Road

The rapid price appreciation and the hard fork announcement will draw attention to BCH.  This is enough to make it more attractive than BTC. One thing to remember. If bitcoin cash developers intend to become a medium of exchange, a currency for the masses, they have a long way to go.  

All digital currencies face the same challenge.  Bitcoin claims acceptance by more than 10,000 merchants including 14 large retailers like Overstocked and Microsoft.  Bitcoin cash lays claim to just 429. Either way, fewer than 5% of all retailers accept cryptocurrencies and we suspect that less the 2% of all retail transactions are represented by any of these currencies.

Even so, bitcoin cash is suddenly taking on a far more exciting role in the crypto game so don’t be surprised to see this continue for a while.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.3 stars on average, based on 61 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Hit 6-Week Highs as Rally Continues

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Bullish price action is still dominant in the cryptocurrency segment today, despite the recent lofty gains, and the overbought short-term picture in the ace of most of the majors. Correlations continue to break down, as more and more coins are in confirmed uptrends, with the total value of the market hitting $400 billion for the first time since early March.

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The top digital currencies are mixed today in the generally positive environment, with Bitcoin Cash, IOTA, Ethereum Classic, Dash, and Monero showing relative strength, in the face of the slightly overbought short-term momentum readings. While this is not the best moment to enter new short-term trades with regards to the majority of the coins, the long-term setup favors further gains in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins have been leading the market higher in the last couple of weeks, and Bitcoin is still stuck below the $9000 level, as it continues to slightly lag behind from a short-term perspective. The coin ran into the strong resistance zone between $9000 and $9200 after breaking out of the broad declining trend.

Now a pullback is likely, given the slight weakness, with a possible test of the prior swing high at $8400. In case of a bullish move, the next target is at $10,000, and long-term investors should still add to their holdings on the short-term dips.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum kept on creeping higher to marginal no rally highs in the last couple of days, nearing the $650 level despite the overbought short-term picture. Short-term traders should still not enter new positions here until the overbought readings are cleared, while long-term investors could still add to their holdings during the pullbacks.  Resistance zones are ahead near $735 and $780, while primary support is between $555 and $575.

Altcoins Diverging but Bulls Remain in Control

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As we noted, the correlation between the coins is lower than during the downswing, and that confirms the bullish price action in the segment. Ripple is trading in a consolidation pattern near the $0.84 level, and although the overbought momentum readings are not yet fully cleared, the trend is clearly bullish and a new short-term buy signal is likely in the coming days.

Among the other recent leaders, IOTA triggered short-term sell signal, reaching the strong resistance zone near $2.2. EOS, Stellar, Cardano, and NEO are consolidating their gains, while Dash, Monero, and ETC are trading slightly above last week’s highs, but traders shouldn’t chase them higher here, as a short-term correction is likely soon.

Stay tuned for our detailed long-term technical analysis coming out later on today.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 229 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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