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There’s nothing quite like a Solar Eclipse to capture the imagination and inspire a nation. Citizens in United States are still extremely excited and everybody here is talking about it, many of them with very sore eyes.

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So, here’s the picture I promised you in yesterday’s market update…

…just kidding.

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This photo was actually taken by NASA. I could never take such a beautiful picture, not with my smartphone anyway.try

For those of you seeking further inspiration, check out the remarkable photos rolling in on Twitter: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SolarEclipise2017

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of August 22nd. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The markets have been delightedly uneventful so far this week. President Trump seems to have a much better handle on things and the stocks and US Dollar are responding by not falling.

The ousting of Steve Bannon was a good start. Then yesterday, Trump gave a televised speech with an important update on the startegy regarding Afghanistan. The speech was well put together and the Presdent seemed more Presidential than he has in a while.

Demonstrating that he’s got a firm grip on the drivers wheel is enough to keep things from crashing for now. However, the markets have already priced in a lot of good news that hasn’t quite been delivered just yet. So, if there’s no major push towards tax or healthcare reforms any time soon, the markets may find themselves under pressure yet again.

Oil Coaster

Oil has been on a bit of a wild ride lately. The market range is low enough to not put any real pressure on other markets but large enough for day traders to get plenty of action.

We should know the backstory by now. The world is still recovering from a massive oversupply. Even though there have been efforts to tame production in the East, Western energy companies have been pumping their hearts out.

The moves we’ve been seeing lately are more speculative than fundamental though. The major battleground has been between $43, which is seen as a bargain for those who feel the price will recover, and $50 which is seen as way too high given the fact that we’re still in oversupply.

Last Friday we saw a surge (circled), which has been corrected yesterday. Now it seems the price has recovered about half of that.

A trader with a good intuition for what direction an asset is moving can make some really great trades here.

Crypto Slide

When it rains it pours and there’s a monsoon in the crypto space at the moment. Virtually all the gains from the past week have already been reversed. This is a gentle reminder that these markets are extremely risky.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are both down more than 6% so far today and even Bitcoin Cash is in the red. Of course, every dark stormy night has it’s moments of lightening that make the night shine.

Two such bolts have managed to bring outstanding gains to savvy alternative investors. One such flash of light is Monero. Rumor has it that XMR will soon be trading on one of the largest exchanges in the world, the Korean based Bithumb exchange.

Be that as it may, the gains are nothing less than phenomenal. The price of Monero has nearly doubled in the past 24 hours and volumes have skyrocketed.

… pushing it’s market capitalization above $1 Billion for the first time ever.

The other sudden yet fleeting bright light is Ripple. The gains in XRP are nothing new but quite welcome given the performance of the rest of the industry. It’s a real shame that the move has been mostly reversed in the past few hours. You can only really escape your destiny for so long.

Here we can see the price of Ripple over the last few days on top of a graph of bitcoin (blue line).

That said, the crypto markets have shown us before that some of the biggest opportunities have revlealed themselves during times that all hope seemed lost. So certainly there’ll be many people out there seeing these lower prices as a discount.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Altcoins

AirToken (AIR) – Extremely Undervalued Long-Term Investment

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I have the opportunity to research many altcoins on a daily basis. While reading through altcoin websites and whitepapers, it sometimes gets overwhelming. The reason is that a lot of altcoins are doing amazing things with their technology, but it is hard to understand what exactly they are trying to accomplish and how the token integrates with their product.

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AirToken has been a breath of fresh air. I am always looking for companies that are solving a real need and utilizing their token in a way that is integral to the ecosystem of the company, and not just an afterthought to raise money.

AirToken, which was founded by a former Google employee, provides mobile access to the underserved. It is based on the assumption that the cost of mobile data and internet access is too high for some to afford. So, how does it work?

Users earn free AirTokens by using the AirFox browser. AirTokens are earned and redeemed for data on pre-paid plans. Reaching those that are currently using pre-paid plans will lower their cost with redeemable tokens. A user simply watches advertisements from the free Android app as well as the AirFox browser. The user earns free AIR tokens and will be eligible for micro-loans based on the proprietary AirToken scoring system.

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Let’s look at the current state of AirToken:

Following the AirToken ICO, you can see that it had a couple of spikes but has since leveled out. The current price of AirToken will change very quickly after a couple of things happen. First, AirToken will need to get listed on a major exchange, and this will immediately increase liquidity and volume. From what I understand, this is supposed to happen as soon as next month. Second, AirToken releases Phase 2, which allows users to recharge their pre-paid mobile cards as well as obtain physical goods by redeeming AirTokens (AIR). Hitting this milestone in the first quarter of 2018 will accelerate growth by attracting more companies to participate in the AirToken advertising and micro-loan program.

Companies like AirToken that are solving real-world problems are pioneers in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space. A lot of the altcoins will come and go. Some will never deliver a product, while others will just take the ICO cash and run. I believe AirToken is here for the long-term. AirToken is easy to understand and is helping a large part of the population that may otherwise be forgotten. When I  look for altcoins to invest in, the most important financial factor for me is the market cap. You can see that the market cap is currently only $5.5 million putting AirToken in 305th among the list of other tokens at the time of this writing. In my professional opinion, once AirToken hits its first major exchange, the market cap will easily rise to $20 million, a 4x ROI (Return on Investment). While I believe AirToken will rise much higher in the long-term, this is a conservative, realistic view of the short-term growth of this token.

Disclaimer: The analyst does not currently own AIR tokens but after researching may put some cash in for a long-term hold.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Analysis

Bitcoin’s Record-Breaking Rally Continues as Prices Cross $8,100

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Bitcoin surged to new highs on Sunday, as the world’s largest crypto by market cap continued to generate bids following the cancellation of Segwit2x.

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BTC/USD Price Levels

The value of a single bitcoin reached a daily high of $8,110.59, its best level on record. At press time, BTC/USD was valued at around $8,002 for a gain of 4%.

With the gain, bitcoin’s market cap now exceeds $133 billion. That’s roughly $100 billion greater than Ethereum, the market’s second most valuable cryptocurrency.

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Bitcoin has added more than $1,100 over the past five sessions. It was down around $5,600 just one week ago.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH), a digital currency alternative that broke away from the original blockchain Aug. 1, was down 5.1% at $1,185. BTC and BCH locked horns earlier this month after the Segwit2x hard fork was abandoned.

$10,000 and Beyond?

Institutional clearing platform LedgerX has initiated its first long-term bitcoin futures option, which is set to expire Dec. 28, 2018. In setting up the option, LedgerX is assuming a price of $10,000 at the time of expiration. That’s a 25% premium on current levels.

Investors who buy the option are essentially saying they believe prices will exceed $10,000 by the time of expiration.

Bitcoin is being helped by growing institutional demand for the digital currency, as hedge funds, day traders and other mainstream investment outfits look to access this burgeoning asset class. CBOE and CME Group have each announced plans to integrate bitcoin into more conventional investment vehicles in the coming months.

The rush of institutional money into bitcoin is a sure sign that the digital asset class is becoming too big to ignore. The value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation has already exceeded $230 billion, with more than a dozen coins valued at $1 billion or more. Nine others have a market cap of $500 million or greater.

Coinbase Responds

The rise of institutional capital has also compelled Coinbase to introduce a custodial service targeted at account holders with more than $10 million in assets. This service targets hedge funds and other institutions that have remained largely on the sidelines of the crypto revolution.

In a recent blog post, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced that the new service will launch sometime next year.

“When we speak with these institutions, they tell us that the number one thing preventing them from getting started is the existence of a digital asset custodian that they can trust to store client funds securely,” Armstrong wrote.

In addition to maintaining the minimum $10 million asset requirement, institutions must pay a $100,000 setup fee to gain access tot he Custodial program. In response, institutional investors will receive assurance that their assets are secure.

The Coinbase Custody website lists broad support for bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC), as well as ERC20 tokens. The ERC20 protocol has emerged as the favorite for startups launching initial coin offerings (ICOs), a controversial crowdfunding model that has already overtaken early stage venture capital.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Cryptocurrencies

Is Ethereum Ready to Play Catch Up With Bitcoin?

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In mid-June of this year, the difference between the market capitalization of bitcoin and Ethereum had narrowed down to less than $8 billion. This had many market participants excited. They expected Ethereum to dethrone bitcoin as the leader, a move popularly termed as flippening.

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Key observations

  1. Ethereum has hugely underperformed bitcoin
  2. The chart pattern suggests that Ethereum is likely to play catch up in the next few months
  3. Stay on the long side of Ethereum to benefit from the bullish setup

However, fast forward five months and the difference in the market capitalization of the top two cryptocurrencies has increased to about $96 billion. This shows that while bitcoin has raced ahead in the past few months, Ethereum has hugely lagged behind.

However, is the underperformance about to end?

The chart pattern shows that Ethereum is likely to embark on a rally of its own that can carry it to $645 to $670 levels in the next few months. Let’s see how we arrived at these levels.

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Ethereum opened trading at $8.16 on January 1, 2017. It started its rally in March and by June 12, it reached a high of $420, an astronomical rally of about 5047%. Thereafter, it entered a period of consolidation, digesting the gains.

On the charts, Ethereum has formed a large symmetrical triangle, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. The breakout is generally in the direction of the long-term trend, or the trend that was prevailing before the pattern formed. In this case, the sharp move from January to June confirms that the cryptocurrency was in an uptrend before forming the triangle.

However, this is not a fool proof trade because sometimes the symmetrical triangle acts as a reversal pattern. Therefore, the best way to play this trade is to wait for a breakout of the triangle before initiating any trade.

Where can we take an entry?

Currently, the resistance line of the triangle is at about $378 levels, a level close to today’s intraday highs. The bears are likely to strongly defend this level. However, if the bulls breakout of $378 and manage to close above the resistance line, the trade on the long side will set up.

Different traders use different methods to confirm whether the breakout is valid or not. Some wait until price moves 3% above the breakout level, others wait for three consecutive closes above the resistance level.

However, we have observed that the best breakouts never look back, hence, waiting for three days may lead to a missed opportunity. Therefore, we can wait for a closing above the resistance line of the triangle and initiate the long positions on the following day.

The breakout can face resistance at $400 and $420. However, we expect the virtual currency to scale both these resistances and rally towards its pattern target zone of $645 to $670.

Notwithstanding, even the most reliable patterns can fail. Therefore, our stop loss will be kept at $340. We don’t want to hang on to the trade if it falls back into the triangle. We shall raise our stops to breakeven as soon as Ethereum breaks out to new lifetime highs. From thereon, we shall trail the stops higher to protect our paper profits.

Note

The chart pattern suggests a resumption of the long-term uptrend in Ethereum. However, this will not get confirmed until the cryptocurrency breaks out and sustains above $380. Therefore, please initiate positions only on a breakout and close above the triangle. Entering presumptive trades may result in losses.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

 

 

 

 

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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