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Time to Focus on General Motors

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

As earnings season continues, analysts have been bewildered by General Motors’ (NYSE: GM) report.  Over the last year, GM shares became 35% cheaper, while income was mixed, both rising and falling, and net profit turned positive only in late 2018.

The GM stock price has been under pressure, most likely because of rising debt. General Motors went bankrupt in 2009, liquidating all previous debts, but new ones started appearing soon. The debt-equity ratio reached 1.93 ever since, making it a serious question whether or not to invest in such a company that had previously been bankrupt.

Since the second IPO in 2010, GM shares have been unable to overcome the 30% rise barrier, while the DJIA rose by over 100% over the same period. This made interest in GM quite low.

With ever-growing debt and shareholder pressure, the company had to cut expenses, and this was done through cutting jobs and closing factories in various countries. For instance, the GM Korea factory is likely to get closed, with over 2,000 jobs cut. Another factory, located in Saint Petersburg, Russia may be closed, too. Meanwhile, in North America, around 36% of jobs were cut.

Overall, the former multinational giant is leaving the markets in Europe, Indonesia, Thailand, India and Australia. The company may end up present only in the US and China.

Naturally, running a company with multiple branches in multiple countries is much harder than the one working in a single country. A good example is Tesla, which in 2008 was saved by a single contract with SpaceX (both owned by Elon Musk) worth $1.8B, while General Motors was unable to do with even $30B.

After the 2008 crisis, US automotive companies faced serious issues. Ford Motor, for example, has not shown any good results ever since, and is still trading at its 2010 lows.

Nevertheless, in mid 2018, Warren Buffet’s fund disclosed information on its Q2 portfolio that included Apple (Buffet said he would like to control 100% of Apple shares), Goldman Sachs, Teva, Delta Airlines and General Motors. If GM is on this list, other investors might also want focus on it.

Meanwhile, in Q2, GM shares rose sharply by 10%, which was the result of an agreement between General Motors and an investment fund run by SoftBank Group, the Japanese telecommunication giant. The fund invested $2.25B into the autonomous taxi development led by a part of GM team.

Thus, Q2 was overall positive for GM, and while the stock price did not increase significantly, the net profit did. As a result, the Q3 report was great, beating all expectations.

The net profit in Q3 reached $2.53B, or $1.75 EPS, against the $2.98B loss, or -$2.03, reported last year. The yearly EPS is expected at somewhere between $5.80 and $6.20, though GM management assumes it could be even higher.

Around 86% of net profit comes from the North American market, while only 14% covers the rest of the world. This is quite in line with the company’s policy regarding closing its regional branches.

Meanwhile, car production was lowered by 14.70% compared to last year, but GM succeeded thanks to the price increase and truck sales, where the yield is higher.

Technically, the price is still below the 200-day SMA, which may push values to the descending trend line which was broken out thanks to the positive report. If the price then bounces, it may rise above $40. GM management’s prediction on beating the yearly profit expectations may be priced quite soon, while then the yearly report comes, the price may head down. The Buy Rumors, Sell Facts rule may well work here.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 23 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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Analysis

EOS Price Analysis: EOSIO 1.6 Update Enhances Speeds and is Cost Effective; Downside Price Risks Remain for EOS/USD

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  • EOSIO developers have released 1.6 upgrade, which sees enhanced speeds and is more cost efficient.
  • EOS/USD price action is ranging; given current behavior, a breakout may just be imminent.

The EOS price on Friday is seen trading down in minor negative territory. The price is caught in a very stubborn range. This behavior being observed could prove to be damaging in the coming sessions if the bulls do not break above resistance. EOS/USD is being dictated by a tough acting supply area, which is seen tracking from $2.60-$2.50 range. Then to the downside, a near-term demand zone is keeping the price propped up for now, $2.35-$2.25.

EOS/USD is moving within this consolidation mode, which has come into play since breaching a vital part of the bull’s recovery. An ascending trend line was seen tracking from 7th December 2018, right up until it was breached by the market bears on 10th January 2019.  This had coincided with the price running into chunky resistance at the psychological $3.00 price mark. It has not convincingly been above this region since the back-end of November 2018.

EOSIO 1.6 Release

EOSIO developers, who have been working on a system upgrade, have now announced the release of an upgraded version 1.6.0 of EOSIO. In terms of the impact of this development, they have instantly been noticeable and signaling a large improvement.  This new release does boast further features and fixes to improve upon the cumulative patches, which were implemented to enhance v1.5.

Details were provided by the company within an official Medium blog post. Updates on the EOSIO software will enhance efficiency for the peer-to-peer networking layer in addition to seeing real-time transactions improve overall transaction speed. They further stated that this release is something that had been planned as part of their progressive goals to improve their performance. They have intentions to maintain the fastest protocol across the market.

The development team tweeted, “Tests show upwards of a 35% increase in likely transaction speed. We are projecting noticeable improvements to sustainable transactions per second. In addition, reduced CPU costs, and lower latency on all EOSIO based blockchains.”

Technical Review – EOS/USD

EOS/USD daily chart.

The key for a new committed trend is to see a breakout from the confinements of the mentioned supply sitting above and demand zone below. Given the earlier detailed break below an ascending trend line, vulnerabilities remain, with the range-block formation.

Should the bears manage to force a drop below $2.25, then a new wave of selling will likely come into force. The next major area of support should be noted down towards the December 2018 low. $1.83 and then then $1.55 regions should be sought for potential comfort.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today: Trade Rally, Pound Pullback, Tesla Worries

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1, Trade Optimism Drives Rally in Stocks, Oil

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The US government is mulling to lift or ease some of the trade tariffs on Chinese goods, at least according to the reports that surfaced yesterday, and although the rumors were promptly denied by the Treasury, risk assets have been pushing higher ever since. Global stocks are trading at 1-month highs, with understandably, the major US indices and China leading the way higher. We expect further gestures by the two sides in the coming weeks, as the talks progress, but a final agreement could still be months away.

The most affected commodities, such as copper and oil are also up today, and but as we noted this weekend, the oversold rally in risk assets is stretched now. Also, even as the weaker global benchmarks, such as the Shanghai Composite have joined the party, the clear economic slowdown and the bearish technicals make the current environment hostile for bulls

2, Pound Retreats After Hitting 2-Month High Above 1.30

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Besides the Trade War saga, the likely delay of the Brexit deadline has been making waves all week long, and Pound bulls seem to like the idea of a possible “soft” deal with the European Union. The currency hit its highest level against the Dollar since mid-November, topping the 1.30 level, while British stocks are also trading near their 2019 highs.

Prime Minister Theresa May pledged to include the opposition parties following Wednesday’s no-confidence vote, but for now, even starting the talks is challenging, even though the government labeled the first talks “constructive”. In any case, with the chances of a no-deal Brexit being low right now, the Pound could enjoy further gains, especially as long as the global risk rally lasts.

3, Tesla Disappoints With Guidance, Cuts Workforce by 7%

Tesla (TSLA), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While it held up very well during the recent tumroil in the stock market, Elon Musk’s crown jewel, Tesla (TSLA) has been down by as much as 8% today in pre-market trading after warning investors that the electric car maker will likely turn a smaller-than-expected profit in the coming quarter. Tesla is struggling to ramp up the production of the Model 3, while also facing difficulties to hit its cost goal with regards to its “mass” product.

With the traditional car makers slowly but surely closing in on the company, and given the looming cash flow issues, the coming quarters will crucial for the Musk. The company just avoided bankruptcy in its early days, and some bears think that the fierce competition and the production issues could lead to a crisis yet again. The company’s workforce skyrocketed in recent years, and today CEO Musk also announced that it will lay off 7%, approximately 3000 workers, to cut costs after the expansion. He stated that,

“We unfortunately have no choice but to reduce full-time employee headcount by approximately 7%, we grew by 30% last year, which is more than we can support, and retain only the most critical temps and contractors (…)”

While today, earnings reports will be few and far between, Netflix (NFLX) will also be in focus after reporting yesterday in after-hours trading, and for now, the streaming giant is also trading lower despite the broad overnight rally in stocks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Stellar Price Analysis: Grayscale Announces XLM Based Trust; XLM/USD Stuck Within Bearish Structure

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  • Global digital asset management firm, Grayscale, has announced an investment vehicle based around XLM.
  • XLM/USD is moving within the confinements of a bearish pattern structure, subject to a breakout south.

XLM/USD has been subject to very narrow and choppy trading, which has been going on for the past eight sessions now. Price action is moving within a range-block formation, which is seen across the board with several of its peers. This type of behavior does indicate of some potential vulnerabilities to the downside.

The current consolidation mode taken up came into play after a prior period of range-trading, which saw a deep breakout on 10th January. XLM/USD had plummeted by a hefty 20% to its lowest levels seen since 17th December. Despite the mid-December bull run, which was seen to the end of the month, it has not escaped the bear market. Therefore, bull rallies continue to be sold with some force by the bears.

Grayscale Stellar Lumens Trust

Grayscale Investments, a global digital asset management organization, has announced the launch of an investment vehicle based on Stellar Lumens (XLM). This is aimed at giving investors exposure to the cryptocurrency XLM. It is the sixth largest by market cap, just over the $2 billion mark, at the time of writing.

The asset management company tweeted via their official account, “We are excited to announce two big developments! First, today marks the launch of Grayscale Stellar Lumens Trust! Investors can now gain exposure to the price movement of XLM through a traditional investment vehicle.”

Grayscale’s Managing Director, Michael Sonnenshein, noted that this Stellar product that they have introduced was brought in on the back of investor demand. Furthermore, he details that Grayscale’s push to offer investors exposure to “established blockchain projects with substantial traction and resources.” Sonnenshein lastly concluded by noting he is bullish on Stellar and the real use cases that it brings.

Technical Review – XLM/USD

XLM/USD daily chart. Price action is moving within triangular structure.

Price action is currently moving within a triangular pattern structure. XLM/USD has been trading within this since the start of December. The lower support was tested to the downside on 14th December at around $0.094000-$0.093500 prior to the big bounce. Life kicked back into the bulls, forcing the rally up to the tracking resistance, around $0.131500. Furthermore, the pattern has further been confirmed, with several tests to the lower and upper acting trend lines.

Lastly, in terms of the described structure, it can also be perceived as a bearish pennant formation, which again point to downside. Support is currently tracking around the $0.107000 area, and a failure to hold will see the December low retested to the downside, $0.093500. Immediate resistance can be observed at $0.120000-$0.1215000.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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