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Ethereum

Time for an Upgrade

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This week we saw a massive surge in bitcoin that simply dominated the entire cryptocurrency market.

Today, it seems we’re experiencing a bit of a pullback. The is quite normal of course. Any asset that can surge 62% in a week and a half should also expect a sizeable retracement after such a run.

The odd thing is that while bitcoin was rising it seemed to be taking some of the value from elsewhere in the market and other cryptocurrencies fell. Now that we’re seeing bitcoin fall back it’s a bit strange that the other cryptos are falling with it.

The total market cap of all cryptos reached a new all time high yesterday of $140 Billion but has since lost $10 Billion of that back.

Something exciting could be right around the corner of this market but not for Bitcoin. As we’ll see below of of BTCs strongest peers may be about to get a huge boost.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of August 16th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Some up, some down, but nothing really moving far or fast in the stock market. Volatility is down from the highs we experienced at the beginning of the week but thankfully has not yet fallen to the record lows that we saw last month.

Moves in the currency markets have been a bit more telling with the US Dollar emerging as the underdog that has finally pulled off a sorely needed surprise victory.

The Dollar has been getting Bucked around since the beginning of the year but so far in August is managing some gains.

For now, support at 92 points on the US Dollar Index is holding well.

Oil also has found some temporary support. $47 has held nicely after Monday’s sell off. Today’s inventories announcement could play a key role in the next movement. We could be in for a bit of a battle at $48 though.

It seems that both bulls and bears could find this spot an attractive entry. As we can see in this chart, we’re very close to the top of the long term downward channel (yellow lines) but now sitting on the short term rising support line (blue). Let’s see how this plays out.

Ethereum About to Upgrade

With all the excitement around Bitcoin leading up to August 1st and since then Ethereum has kind of been kicked to the backburner of alternative investors minds.

The many proposed upgrades to the bitcoin network have certainly been controversial but Ethereum’s upgrades usually have a lot more consensus. Ethereum’s founder Vitalik Buterin holds a great influence over the ETH community and so it makes it easier for everyone to get on the same page once he’s given consent.

The new upgrade is called Metropolis and it will go into affect in the next few months.

Some of the features that we’re excited about are the ability to send transactions without revealing the senders address making for anonymous transactions. As well as allowing contracts to pay their own gas, a feature that will allow users to interact with an Ethereum based coin without actually having ETH in their wallet.

Metropolis will also reduce the reward for miners, which is a particularly potential price moving factor.

Ethereum has been rather stagnant lately so we’re very curious to see how the price will react as we near the implementation.

Wishing you an awesome day ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. FalconX

    August 16, 2017 at 10:15 am

    I am curious to know how will the lower miner rewards effect the overall price of ETH?

    • Mati Greenspan

      August 17, 2017 at 9:17 am

      It changes incentives for mining as well as influencing supply and demand. How it will affect is not so clear cut but I’m reasonably sure that it will have an affect, especially over time.

  2. tieuthanhliem

    August 16, 2017 at 10:46 am

    When the update happen? I found some information that it will happen in 2018

  3. Mati Greenspan

    August 17, 2017 at 9:18 am

    I saw a post on reddit that said 40 days but wasn’t able to confirm. If you can find out I would be very grateful.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Still in Deadlock

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The choppy, directionless period in the cryptocurrency segment continues, with no meaningful change in the technical setups of the major coins. While the broader trends are still clearly bearish and sellers remain in control of the market, we saw another minor bullish shift in the past 24 hours, with modest gains across the board.

Most of the top coins are trading in the range of the Monday session, which saw the spike triggered by the turmoil in Tether. Stellar is the apparent positive outlier of the past few days, while Dash, Litecoin, and Ethereum have been the weakest so far this week.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, all of the majors remain above last week’s levels, and especially Bitcoin’s continued stability is encouraging for crypto-bulls here, even as our trend model paints a negative picture of the segment.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin avoided a test of the $6275 level despite moving below its recent very narrow trading range yesterday, with still no meaningful bearish or bullish momentum present in the coin’s market. BTC continues to trade below the $6500 level, and its volatility is very low, even after the move below the previously dominant broad triangle consolidation pattern.

Further resistance levels are still ahead near $6750 and $7000, while support levels below $6275 are found near $600, $5850 and between $5000 and $5100.

Altcoins Little Changed as Ethereum Still Glued to $200

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The weekend has been very quiet for altcoins so far, with even the recently active Ripple settling down near the $0.46 level. XRP is around the midpoint of Monday’ s range but the lack of follow-through after the breakout from the triangle consolidation pattern is a negative sign, and the coin remains on a short-term sell signal in our trend model. Strong resistance is still ahead at $0.51, $0.54, $0.57, while support is found near $0.42, $0.375, and $0.35.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to hover around the $200 price level still being in bearish short- and long-term patterns and the relative weakness of the second largest coin remains a huge concern for the whole segment.

With no evidence of meaningful capital inflows to the market, the outlook is neutral at best, and traders and investors should wait for at least a short-term trend change before entering new positions. Strong support is found near $180, $170, and $160, while resistance is ahead near $235 and $260.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS is also among the relatively weaker coins, and the coin is stuick in a broad Trading range around the $5.35 level since August. Volatility in the coin’s market has been progressively declining, but the vicinity of the bear market low suggests that the long-term downtrend is still intact, especially given the segment-wide trends.

A test of the lows is still more likely than a bullish break-out, with strong support found near $4.50 and key resistance ahead near $6 and $6.5.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Coming Towards the End of Triangular Pattern, Breakout is Around the Corner

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  • Ethereum’s Annual Devcon is just under two weeks away, to be kicked off from 30th October – 2nd.
  • ETH/USD price action has been narrowing within a triangular pattern, subject to a breakout.

Ethereum’s Blockchain Upgrade Faces Delay

Just a few days ago, Ethereum’s software upgrade, had a failure, as Constantinople – proposed hard fork did not activate on the test network Ropsten. Ethereum has been planning to implement the Constantinople upgrade in November. However, given the failed attempt seen in the testing stage of the upgrade, this appears to have now shifted plans. The Ethereum infrastructure organization, Infura tweeted: “Due to a consensus issue with the Constantinople fork, Ropsten is currently not usable. The Ethereum dev community is investigating. Until further notice please utilize one of the other Ethereum testnets.”

As a result, the developers at Ethereum had released a patch, to fix the bug problem. An independent developer working on the project, Lane Rettig, commented on the delay, noting that they are investigating the failure to upgrade. Rettig said: “I would expect it to get delayed to 2019.”

Wave IV of Grants Program Distributed for Ethereum Development

Millions of dollars have been distributed by the Ethereum Foundation to projects that are contributing to the development of Ethereum. A full breakdown of the grants distributed can be viewed in their latest blog post. The funds totaling over $3 million, were sent out to 20 individuals and groups, that are working on the Ethereum blockchain.

Ethereum Annual Developer Conference

It is not long now until Etheruem’s Devcon 4, which will be held from Oct 30th–Nov 2nd in Prague.

Devcon is Ethereum’s “family reunion.” It is hosted to educate and empower their community to build decentralized applications, bringing Ethereum protocols, tools, and culture to the world.

The annual conference is for “builders: designers, UX researchers, smart contract devs, blockchain researchers, client implementers, test engineers, infrastructure operators, community organizers, and even artists in the community.”

Technical Review – 4-hour Chart

ETH/USD 4-hour chart

ETH/USD has been stuck trading within a triangular pattern, since mid-September. The price has swung between a low seen around $170 up to a high within $255 territory, within this period.  Over the past three weeks price action has been narrowing. As a result, ETH/USD is moving closer towards the end of the pattern, looking very likely of a breakout. On 15th October, the price saw a large surge in volume, which as a result saw a quick upper wick spike outside of the pattern. However, on the close of that candle, the price was back within the triangle.

Furthermore, resistance to the upside is eyed at $215, the upper trend line of the pattern. A break north will likely see the above supply zone tested again, $250-255 region. Finally, in terms of support, this can be seen at the lower part of the pattern, just below the $200 mark at $197. Consequently, should bearish momentum push for a breach, a below demand zone will likely come into play at $180-165 area.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Extend Losses as Bulls Fail to Show Up

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While the major cryptocurrencies haven’t been able to gain ground following Monday’s Tether-induced turmoil, the market has been stable in the past few days, and the top coins managed to hold up above their short-term support levels.

After yesterday’s slightly bearish session, overnight, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple all drifted the narrow ranges that developed during the week, and most of the smaller coins also turned lower, even as volatility remains relatively low.

The total value of the market dropped to $207 billion, but it’s still well above the bear market low, and the segment avoided a major technical breakdown that was looming after last week’s selloff. That said, the long-term picture is still bearish in the case of most of the majors, and our trend model is also on sell signals across the board from a short-term perspective.

On another negative note, Ripple and Stellar also joined the decline yesterday after showing strength this week, and the segment is still missing a bullish leadership.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin dropped below the very narrow post-spike trading range, it continues to trade above the primary support level near $6275, and well above the lows from last week. We maintain our short-term sell signal on the coin, as it failed to recapture the $6500 level, and although the long-term signal is still neutral for BTC traders still shouldn’t enter positions here.

Further resistance levels are ahead near $6750 and $7000, while above the key long-term support zone near $5850, a weaker level is also found near $6000 and the next major zone is between $5000 and $5100.

Ethereum Dips Below $200 as Ripple Tests Long-Term Zone Again

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As Ripple’s relative strength faded, the third largest coin quickly gave back most of Monday’s gains, and now it trades right at the key long-term support/resistance zone between $0.42 and $0.46 zone. The lack of bullish follow-through is a negative sign for the whole segment and it gave another confirmation of the still apparent selling pressure on the majors.

With that in mind, traders still shouldn’t enter positions here, even as XRP remains above the recent triangle consolidation pattern, with strong resistance ahead at $0.51, $0.54, $0.57, and with further resistance zones found near $0.375 and $0.35.

 

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum showed no sign of relative strength this week, and the coin is back below the $200, although the decline also lacked momentum so far. The second largest digital currency is clearly above the next strong support level at $180, with further levels just below that near $170 and $160.

ETH remains on sell signals on both time-frames given the dominant broader declining trend and the short-term weakness, and odds still favor the test of the bear market low in the coming weeks, with strong resistance levels still ahead at $235 and $260.

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Most of the smaller altcoins are also under clear selling pressure, with the likes of Monero, IOTA, EOS, and NEO all drifting lower in the past couple of days. Litecoin also followed the broader market lower so far today, and the coin is already testing the key $51 level, as we expected after showing weakness earlier on this week. A move below primary support would warn of a test of the bear market low near $47 with the next major zone found at $44.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With that in mind, traders and investors should stay away from the coin until at least s short-term trend change, with strong resistance levels ahead near $56, $59, and $64.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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