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The Worst May Be behind Us

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It’s not every day you get to meet a legend. Last Friday we had a visitor in the office who is arguably the most influential figure in the world of blockchain, some would say in the entire world of computer development.

Vitalik Buterin is the creator of the cryptocurrency network Ethereum and his views are rarely disputed. On his way to a blockchain conference, he managed a quick stop in to visit us here at eToro’s headquarters and even answered some of our questions.

The full Q&A session is at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_ETd_5E1iI&t=18s

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures, and graphs are valid as of September 11th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

As Hurricane Irma pelts the western shores of Florida the United States mourns on the 16th anniversary of the worst terror attack in US history.

Now that entire streets in Miami and other major cities have turned into rivers and Hurricane Jose does not appear to be on its way to enter the United States, it may be possible that the worst is already behind us.

Meanwhile in Mexico, the massive 8.1 magnitude earthquake has claimed a total of 90 lives and the damage to buildings is still being assessed.

In North Korea, we have thankfully not seen any new nukes over the weekend. However, rhetoric from the communist dictator persists. Kim even threw a party for all his nuclear scientists to celebrate the success of the program.

Markets in Japan are flying this morning with the Nikkei 225 up 1.41% thanks to some minor data. The Chinese index had a great start to the day but the growth was not sustained and the markets are now down.

European indices are just opening now with a significant gap up over the weekend.

Defective Markets

Now that the financial crisis is considered to be over by most economists and financial analysts it’s time to tally the damage for this too.

However, unlike a hurricane or an earthquake, it’s much more difficult to rebuild after an event like the subprime mortgage crisis. The central bank’s main response to the crisis was to buy financial assets but left most of the structural problems alone.

Imagine if the US government comes into Texas today and starts buying property without fixing anything. Then in 5 years from now claims that the prices of housing has gone up and therefore the problem is solved.

In any case, the banks may have overplayed their hand just a bit. In a recent blog post, JP Morgan’s Andrew Norelli points out that given all of the disasters in the USA (natural and political) stocks should not be where they are right now. Instead, they are being driven by something bigger, the Fed’s Balance Sheet.

The United States is not the biggest culprit though. As we can see above, the USA has stopped their buying program around the start of 2015 and is now thinking about how to reduce it.

On the other hand, countries like Europe and Japan are still buying aggressively. At this point, the Bank of Japan actually owns about 75% of all the ETFs in the country making them the largest player in their own “free” market.

China Ban Hammer

A rumor has begun to circulate that Chinese Peer to Peer exchanges may be under question. A rumor that has sent crypto markets down quite significantly.

A quick glance at trading volumes, on the other hand, shows us that Chinese exchanges OK coin and Huobi are operating at a normal level with a combined volume of 147,233 BTC ($617 Million) over the last 24 hours.

Another conflicting report is coming from Chinese State owned television saying that the ICO ban from a week ago is indeed temporary and that the government only sought to regulate the scams out of the highly volatile ICO market.

26 of the top 30 cryptocurrencies are in the green at the moment. If this momentum is sustained throughout the day it may indeed be a good indication that the worst may be behind us.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. Winklevoss

    September 11, 2017 at 1:42 pm

    ‘P2P’ exchanges such as those similar to LocalBitcoins or other OTC platforms have explicitly been said to be outside the rumored bans. Wouldn’t call the exchanges listed above as P2P as there is a central liquidity provider….

  2. Inverstor Clouseau

    September 11, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    Amazing that you got an interview with that guy!

    • Mati Greenspan

      September 11, 2017 at 5:57 pm

      Indeed. Quite a rush. I think he’s also finding ways to cope with the new found stardom.

  3. Tarik

    September 11, 2017 at 5:28 pm

    Having particularly BITTREX listed in there made me confused:
    I always heard it is Chinese but their advertised HQ is in the US… so is BITTREX really in the range of the blade?

  4. Mati Greenspan

    September 11, 2017 at 5:58 pm

    To the best of my knowledge Bittrex.com is a US exchange. It’s listed here as the top 6th in the world by volume.

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Cryptocurrencies

Can EOS Overcome the Bear Market?

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Since concluding its year-long crowdsale, EOS has quickly emerged as one of the world’s leading cryptocurrencies. This was highlighted not only by its rapid growth during the bear market, but by its ability to attract hundreds of developers and enterprises to its protocol. As the bear market drags on, there are several compelling reasons why EOS could have staying power in an industry facing constant pressure and change. (Note: the author has no investment stake in EOS or its parent company, Block.one).

EOS: A Look at the Benefits

Block.one, the company behind EOS, recently published four reasons why developers are migrating to the EOSIO protocol. They include scalability (15-20 transactions per second), speed (very low latency compared to other blockchains), practically zero fees (eliminates the need for transaction costs) and environmental sustainability (66,000 times more efficient than bitcoin).

Against this backdrop, there are at least 260 projects being built on top of the EOS platform, a strong sign that the Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) model was appealing to a wider range of developers. Although the company didn’t elaborate on the types of projects being deployed, the general view among industry is that EOS allows users with very little technical background to leverage blockchain technology.

At the same time, EOS’ strong development capacity has been well documented by industry observers and even government entities. A widely consumed blockchain index developed by the Chinese government has routinely ranked EOS as the world’s top cryptocurrency based on technology, application and innovation. As of December, EOS had once again dominated the ranking with a total index score that was nearly 20 points higher than Ethereum, the second-best cryptocurrency based on the same value metrics.

EOS was designed with scalability in mind. As such, it is a direct competitor to Ethereum, whose shaky position may have pushed developers toward EOS and other protocols. In fact, decentralized application volumes on Tron and EOS have already overtaken Ethereum by a considerable margin. (The author would argue that EOS has a much stronger value proposition than Tron for reasons too numerous to name here.) According to Dapp Radar, the largest Ethereum dapp by volume is ranked 37th, with EOS and Tron accounting for the first 36 spots.

The EOS blockchain is also well funded, with the network paying for development through a maximum 5% inflation. A portion of that is earmarked for block producers but token holders get to decide on how the rest is allocated. Options include burning tokens to reduce overall inflation or allocating funds to pay for popular projects.

A Look at the Risks

While no blockchain project is without risk, EOS faces several unique challenges that have been well documented by the cryptocurrency community. Concerns about voting cartels, block-producer incentives and even regulatory scrutiny have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Those fears have been exacerbated by the second-longest bear market in crypto history.

EOS creator Dan Larimer has more or less admitted that he botched the protocol’s constitution by giving the network arbitrator too much power. In proposing a new constitution last summer, Larimer said, “I have learned a lot about human nature by watching the disputes, the witch hunts, the ‘bring everything before the ECAF mindset.” ECAF is the EOS Core Arbitration Forum.

The platform recently launched the EOSGO referendum tool, which some analysts speculate may result in constitutional changes. In the meantime, a group of EOS developers have already joined hands to create a new alliance for collaborative decision making. According to the official EOS Alliance website, the group “will be held accountable to the community under the EOS Constitution.”

Read: Spiral of Bad Incentives: EOS Block Producers No Longer In Profit.

EOS has also faced controversy over allegations of irregular block producer voting, which critics say undermine the network’s “free and democratic election process.” Evidence purporting to show voter collusion involving Huobi, a Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange, and other block producers surfaced last fall, forcing Block.one to take decisive measures to end the so-called voting cartel.

Then there’s the issue of EOS’ original funding mechanism, which managed to raise $4 billion in a highly irregular, year-long crowdsale. EOS may have skirted federal scrutiny during its token sale, but that could change if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chooses to re-evaluate the ICO. That’s the view of Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano.

Speaking at a press conference in Edinburgh, Scotland in November, Hoskinson predicted that the SEC will bring punitive measures against Block.One for its “egregious” token sale.

Market Update

EOS has not been immune to the bear market inflicting all cryptocurrencies. Despite demonstrating inverse trading patterns during the early stage of the bear market – namely, after the cryptocurrency was launched – EOS has more or less traded in the general direction of its peers.

The EOS price has declined nearly 50% since mid-November. The total cryptocurrency market cap has declined by roughly the same over that period.

At the time of writing, EOS/USD was valued at $2.43, having gained 3.3% compared with Tuesday. At current prices, EOS has a total market cap of $2.2 billion, placing it fourth among active blockchain projects.

Daily trade volumes amounted to $666 million, which is fairly consistent over the past week. Bibox is the largest market for EOS, with trades against Ethereum accounting for 12% of total market volumes.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 743 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Bitcoin

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum: Good Things Happen to Those Who Wait

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  • Signs of weakness appear while playing on the edge.
  • ETH/USD must lead now or suffer for months.
  • BTC/USD does not work for either side of the market.

The most rising value right now is patience. In a world where everything goes faster than our mind is capable of handling, patience is today a value that is not taught and even less praised.

However, in professional trading, being patient is an asset as valuable as money. They are directly correlated, the less patience, the less performance, and vice versa.

As one of our contributors, known as Colibri Trader, wrote:

Some traders fail to realize that to be successful will take time. They often fall prey to their own impatience in the hope of earning fast money. It could be a rough environment, and charts might be hard to read, so it is wise at times to step back in order to avoid costly mistakes. Don’t rush things out, or try to enter in a trade at all costs by just following your gut. The market could be quite tricky and often does send out the wrong signs. Wait patiently for the best opportunities to align themselves and then act mercilessly.

ETH/BTC Daily Chart

The ETH/BTC pair insists on testing analysts’ patience with their dangerous game on the edge of the bearish landscape. The setup says with clarity, perhaps excessive, that this point will not be passed and that this is the best point to enter long into the Ethereum.

The MACD in the daily range is turning bullish just above the line dividing the upside of the bearish side of the indicator. The DMI shows the bears with a slight advantage, but the fact that the bulls stay above level 20 adds bullish potential.

Perhaps too evident, although sometimes the market gifts money.

BTC/USD 240 Minute Chart

BTC/USD is currently trading at the $3,505 price level, moving away from the $3,530 price congestion resistance line.

Below the current price, the next support level is $3,460 (price congestion support). This price level separates the current, lateral scenario with the openly bearish scenario that the BTC/USD pair has already visited the first week of December. The loss of this level of support would mean moving quickly to the third level of support at $3,300 (price congestion support).

Above the current price, the first target is at $3.530 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance level is at $3,600 (price congestion resistance) and only a few dollars above the EMA50 at $3,609. The third resistance level is at $3,690 (price congestion resistance). If BTC/USD can conquer this price level, the strength of the bullish trend would quickly be tested with the SMA100 at $3,708 and then the SMA200 at $3,772.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows a flat profile that projects an imperfect trajectory towards an upward cut. This pattern usually produces bearish rejects.

The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows bears picking up inertia and increasing their trend strength. The bulls lose power and move below level 20, confirming the weakness of the buying side. The ADX begins to react to the bear’s dominance and confirms the increase in bearish trend strength.

ETH/USD 240 Minute Chart

ETH/USD is currently trading at the $117 price level, just below the $118resistance level (price congestion resistance).

Below the current price, the first support level is at $109.50 (price congestion support). Should the Ethereum lose this first support, the next support is at $105 (price congestion support). The third level of support is at $97 (price congestion support).

Above the current price, the first level of resistance is at $118 (price congestion resistance). Above this first resistance the most critical area of the graph is presented immediately, with a second dynamic resistance at $122 (EMA50) that would give way to a rock wall at the price level of $130 (price congestion resistance) and reinforced by the SMA100 at $131 and the SMA200 at $133.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows a profile similar to that of the BTC/USD pair although in this case with a little more bullish inclination and therefore, more chances of success on the bullish cross.

The DMI on the 4-hour chart also shows differences from the BTC/USD. Here the bears follow a downward trend while the bulls remain at the same level in the last few days.

XRP/USD 240 Minute Chart

XRP/USD is currently trading at the $0.317 price level, above the $0.31 support level. Of the TOP 3 components of the crypto market, XRP is the one with the best technical aspect.

Below the current price, the first level of support is $0.31 (price congestion support), followed a little lower by the second level of support at $0.308 (price congestion support). The third level of support is at $0.296 (price congestion support), a level that would already indicate a return of the XRP to the fully bearish scenario of early December.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is dynamic at $0.327(EMA50). The second resistance level is at $0.335 (price congestion resistance), followed by an obstacle race for the SMA100 at $0.34, a price congestion resistance at $0.345 and another dynamic resistance at $0.365(SMA200).

The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows that there was a small bearish reversal yesterday. A second bullish cross attempt may occur today.

The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows the bears in an apparent decline. The bulls copy and withdraw as well, which shows a lack of confidence on both sides of the market.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Altcoins

What Joe Rogan and His Billions of Viewers Have Learned About Bitcoin, Crypto and Blockchain

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Podcast powerhouse Joe Rogan has been dipping his toes into cryptocurrency ever more frequently since Andreas Antonopoulos made his first of four appearances to date on the show back in early 2014.

In the intervening years, a potential billion monthly listeners have frequently been exposed to informative, educational, and sometimes controversial, cryptocurrency conversations on the podcast platform. These have been conducted by blockchain evangelists (Dr. Ben Goertzel) as well as hardcore skeptics (Peter Schiff), and have explored a plethora of crypto and blockchain’s potential uses.

So, amid the cacophony of opposing thought and opinion the largest media platform in the world has exposed its viewers to, just what will the JRE viewers have taken away from the podcast’s crypto-centric episodes?

The Good

Crypto fundamentalists would have been more thrilled with Anton Antonopoulos’ appearances on the show than blockchain fanatics. Antonopoulos makes no secret of his desire to see crypto shake up the existing global financial paradigm, and Rogan’s somewhat lefty/hippy nature assured he received these ideas enthusiastically.

“All you creeps that are controlling money all throughout the world… your time is slowly closing in. Am I right?”

That’s the question with which Joe Rogan opened JRE #844 – Antonopoulos’ fourth appearance on the show. Andreas answered with a simple ‘Yep’, and went on to explain the phenomena which saw the banking industry make a (devious?) move into the blockchain world:

“ (In 2015) The media was constantly bashing Bitcoin. And then… we saw this interesting phenomena where the banks started getting interested…not in Bitcoin, but in blockchain – the technology behind Bitcoin.”

The best side of cryptocurrency – its potential to wrestle financial control from the hands of our global banking overlords – is best displayed during Antonopoulos’ appearances on the show, and are worth a listen for his wonderful analogies alone:

It’s rather amusing. I look at that a bit like the Horse-Buggy Association of America is going: ‘we like this automobile thing you’ve designed, but we have a very big investment in hay and horses, stables and veterinarians, so we’re going to use the technology behind the automobile – the pneumatic tyre – and we’re going to revolutionize horse-buggies.’”

The Bad

Perhaps the worst side of cryptocurrency to be exposed on JRE is its tendency to find itself the target of hackers and thieves. More than once Rogan and guests have brought up some of the ridiculous sums of cryptocurrency stolen in recent years, and the conversations usually end with a hopeful plea that one day ‘they’ll find out how to make it more secure’.

Of course, the vast, vast majority of crypto thefts to date have taken place on exchanges. Holding this up as an example of crypto’s lack of security is like blaming a car for getting stolen, even though you left it out in the middle of the road with the engine running – or worse – placed the keys in the hand of the thief yourself.

The Ugly

The ugly truth which investment broker and financial commentator, Peter Schiff, thought he was unveiling on JRE went something like this: Bitcoin has no value; Bitcoin is doomed; Buy more gold. On JRE #1145, Schiff said:

“Bitcoin is trying to digitally replicate the properties of gold. That’s the whole selling point – they say it’s digital gold. And it does have a lot of gold’s properties which help it succeed as money, but it doesn’t have any of gold’s physical properties that gave it so much value in the first place.”

Schiff also caused a stir back in July 2018 when he placed a $1,000 price prediction on BTC, and ridiculed its ‘fake scarcity’. Despite Schiff’s pessimism, and the furore that his appearances always cause, he has probably added some much needed healthy skepticism to the podcast over the years – even though most here would disagree with him completely.

The Future

With Andreas Antonopoulos slated to re-appear in the coming months – his first appearance in over two years – it will be interesting to get his take on the ICO madness of 2017-2018, the market’s ATH, and its subsequent drop-off since then.

Whether you’re a fan of JRE or not, the podcast might end up playing a bigger part than most in spreading crypto and blockchain awareness around the globe.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 125 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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