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The Worst May Be behind Us

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It’s not every day you get to meet a legend. Last Friday we had a visitor in the office who is arguably the most influential figure in the world of blockchain, some would say in the entire world of computer development.

Vitalik Buterin is the creator of the cryptocurrency network Ethereum and his views are rarely disputed. On his way to a blockchain conference, he managed a quick stop in to visit us here at eToro’s headquarters and even answered some of our questions.

The full Q&A session is at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_ETd_5E1iI&t=18s

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures, and graphs are valid as of September 11th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

As Hurricane Irma pelts the western shores of Florida the United States mourns on the 16th anniversary of the worst terror attack in US history.

Now that entire streets in Miami and other major cities have turned into rivers and Hurricane Jose does not appear to be on its way to enter the United States, it may be possible that the worst is already behind us.

Meanwhile in Mexico, the massive 8.1 magnitude earthquake has claimed a total of 90 lives and the damage to buildings is still being assessed.

In North Korea, we have thankfully not seen any new nukes over the weekend. However, rhetoric from the communist dictator persists. Kim even threw a party for all his nuclear scientists to celebrate the success of the program.

Markets in Japan are flying this morning with the Nikkei 225 up 1.41% thanks to some minor data. The Chinese index had a great start to the day but the growth was not sustained and the markets are now down.

European indices are just opening now with a significant gap up over the weekend.

Defective Markets

Now that the financial crisis is considered to be over by most economists and financial analysts it’s time to tally the damage for this too.

However, unlike a hurricane or an earthquake, it’s much more difficult to rebuild after an event like the subprime mortgage crisis. The central bank’s main response to the crisis was to buy financial assets but left most of the structural problems alone.

Imagine if the US government comes into Texas today and starts buying property without fixing anything. Then in 5 years from now claims that the prices of housing has gone up and therefore the problem is solved.

In any case, the banks may have overplayed their hand just a bit. In a recent blog post, JP Morgan’s Andrew Norelli points out that given all of the disasters in the USA (natural and political) stocks should not be where they are right now. Instead, they are being driven by something bigger, the Fed’s Balance Sheet.

The United States is not the biggest culprit though. As we can see above, the USA has stopped their buying program around the start of 2015 and is now thinking about how to reduce it.

On the other hand, countries like Europe and Japan are still buying aggressively. At this point, the Bank of Japan actually owns about 75% of all the ETFs in the country making them the largest player in their own “free” market.

China Ban Hammer

A rumor has begun to circulate that Chinese Peer to Peer exchanges may be under question. A rumor that has sent crypto markets down quite significantly.

A quick glance at trading volumes, on the other hand, shows us that Chinese exchanges OK coin and Huobi are operating at a normal level with a combined volume of 147,233 BTC ($617 Million) over the last 24 hours.

Another conflicting report is coming from Chinese State owned television saying that the ICO ban from a week ago is indeed temporary and that the government only sought to regulate the scams out of the highly volatile ICO market.

26 of the top 30 cryptocurrencies are in the green at the moment. If this momentum is sustained throughout the day it may indeed be a good indication that the worst may be behind us.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 129 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. Winklevoss

    September 11, 2017 at 1:42 pm

    ‘P2P’ exchanges such as those similar to LocalBitcoins or other OTC platforms have explicitly been said to be outside the rumored bans. Wouldn’t call the exchanges listed above as P2P as there is a central liquidity provider….

  2. Inverstor Clouseau

    September 11, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    Amazing that you got an interview with that guy!

    • Mati Greenspan

      September 11, 2017 at 5:57 pm

      Indeed. Quite a rush. I think he’s also finding ways to cope with the new found stardom.

  3. Tarik

    September 11, 2017 at 5:28 pm

    Having particularly BITTREX listed in there made me confused:
    I always heard it is Chinese but their advertised HQ is in the US… so is BITTREX really in the range of the blade?

  4. Mati Greenspan

    September 11, 2017 at 5:58 pm

    To the best of my knowledge Bittrex.com is a US exchange. It’s listed here as the top 6th in the world by volume.

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Analysis

The Flippening: XRP Overtakes Ethereum as Second-Largest Cryptocurrency

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XRP’s sudden and dramatic surge over the past four days has fundamentally altered the composition of the cryptocurrency market. On Friday, the so-called banker’s cryptocurrency overtook Ethereum as the world’s second-largest blockchain, highlighting the latter’s struggle over the past two months.

Market Cap Rankings

The market capitalization for XRP has more than doubled this week and now sits at $23.6 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. The dramatic surge follows a 115% spike in the XRP price since Tuesday.

Ethereum, which has long held the no. 2 spot in the crypto market rankings, has fallen to third spot with a total market cap of $23.3 billion. Ether’s price is up more than 7% on Friday and lags considerably behind XRP over the past five days.

Trading in XRP is up across all major exchanges. XRP’s daily turnover now sits at $2.6 billion, having gained a staggering 800% since Tuesday.

At the time of writing, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization was worth nearly $225 billion. The market was valued at roughly $200 billion just 24 hours ago.

The Flippening

Despite being one of the most polarizing cryptocurrencies on the market, XRP has managed to win over investors who are keenly monitoring institutional adoption of blockchain technology. Ripple Labs, the company behind XRP, has announced hundreds of partnerships over the designed to boost mainstream adoption of blockchain technology.

All that came to a head on Monday after a Ripple executive teased the release of the first xRapid product. Sagar Sarbhai, head of regulatory relations for Ripple’s Asia-Pacific and the Middle East unit, told CNBC that a new cryptocurrency offering centered on the xRapid system was due in the “next month or so.” This news helped propel XRP through the stratosphere.

Ethereum, on the other hand, was the center of the most recent market meltdown that saw prices plummet nearly 90% from peak-to-trough. Ether briefly fell below $170 last week as coin offerings continued to liquidate their holdings. According to some analysts, Ethereum is facing an existential crisis amid declining reservation demand and concerns over “economic abstraction.” Although the development community is addressing these concerns, Ethereum’s short-term price trajectory has been extremely volatile.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 606 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Surging Ripple Leads Strong Rally, Tops $0.50

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The last 24 hours saw a much-awaited bullish shift in the cryptocurrency segment, as finally, the rally of a major triggered a broad and sustained move in the other top coins as well. Ripple surged by 50% after the initial rally of the bear market lows, and it really took off after yesterday’s buy signal in our trend model, topping the weaker $0.3750 resistance level and the very strong long-term zone near $0.42, which also marked the dominant declining long-term trendline.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Despite the strong rally, a long-term trend change is not confirmed yet, and traders should reduce their positions here, as at least a re-test of the key zone near $0.42 is very likely following the surge, with resistance ahead at $0.54, $0.575, and $0.64. With the move, XRP also got close to take over Ethereum as the second largest coin, with currently around 10% separating the two currencies in market cap.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is also significantly higher today, although the 5% move is dwarfed by Ripple 50% jump. BTC triggered a buy signal overnight, rallying past the $6500 resistance level, and it is currently testing the zone $6750.

The long-term signal is still only neutral, and although the current broad rally is encouraging, the segment is still not out of the woods. Further resistance zones are now ahead at $7000 and between $7200 and $7300, while support below $6500 is still found at $6275, $6000, and near $5850.

Altcoins Still Mixed but Rally Gaining Breadth

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum moved up to the recent swing high and got close to the key resistance level at $235 once again amid the broad rally, but for now a clear break to confirm a new upswing is not completed. That said, the coin is still on a short-term buy signal, and given the improvements in the segment, traders should hold on to their positions here.

A sustained move below $200 would still warn of a re-test of the lows near $170, but a move above $235 could lead to a test of the $260 resistance level and the strong $275-$280 zone.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The outlook for the major altcoins improved, but there are still relatively weak coins, with the likes of ETC, IOTA, LTC, and NEO still not being in good technical positions. That said, Stellar, Cardano, Dash, and EOS also joined the rally, and Monero maintained its short-term buy signal too.

XMR is still below the recent swing low and the $125 resistance level, and well shy of the key long-term zone near $150, but the stability of the coin is encouraging.

Dash/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

After the bullish consolidation period below $200 that we pointed out, Dash moved above the key level following Ripple and the broader market higher. Dash could be part of a bullish leadership, should the current move continue, and although the long-term downtrend is still intact, the coins is now on a short-term buy signal in our trend model, with further support at $190 and $170 and resistance ahead at $215, $225, and $265.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 350 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Altcoins Share the Spoils as $6 Billion Enters Global Market Overnight

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The cryptocurrency market just felt the sharp influx of $6 billion to global trade volumes within the space of twelve hours. That’s a 54% increase on the $11 billion recorded late on Thursday night, and on Friday morning (UTC) the altcoin market appears to have reaped the benefit.

The Big Two

Only $1.6 billion of that $6 billion influx found its way into BTC, and the 5% rise by Bitcoin overnight was steady rather than spectacular. It’s difficult to separate the wash trading and transaction mining from the official numbers, since CMC actually includes the excluded trades in its calculation of the daily percentage.

Ethereum’s trade volumes rose by $0.7 billion overnight, but the coin price surged 10% during the height of the flurry. This carries on ETH’s trend of outperforming BTC ever since the crash of early September. The morning’s surge saw ETH threaten the $230 mark – the first time since before the dip on September 5th.

BTC dominance fell by 2.2% overnight as the altcoin market picked up once again. Several tokens recorded north of 50% gains overnight, with some of the majors heavily involved in the action.

XRP +49%

XRP’s trade volume rose by $1.4 billion overnight; from $400 million to $1.8 billion – a volume that competes with Ethereum. Good news for XRP holders, the $1.8 billion volume hasn’t been seen since early April, in the lead up to +40% gains during the height of Q2’s brief market surge.

The early morning price in the $0.47 range hasn’t been seen since the middle of July, effectively cancelling out all of XRP’s losses over the autumn period. This compounds a strong week for Ripple and XRP that has seen them takes huge steps forward in their quest for mainstream adoption.

Stellar, Cardano, Tron

Stellar (XLM) spiked 22.4% at its peak before a slight pullback. The early morning peak of $0.252320 takes XLM back to early August.

It takes less to float altcoins than the big two, and Stellar’s surge came off the back of an $80 million influx to trade volumes, with most of it finding its way to XLM/BTC and XLM/USDT pairs on Binance.

Cardano (ADA) gained 20% on its value overnight, climbing from yesterday’s low of $0.071630 to this morning peak of $0.086385.

ADA’s numbers are weighted similar to Stellar, with an influx of $100 million to trade volumes resulted in gains of around a fifth of its starting value. Upbit’s ADA/KRW (Korean won) trades account for more than a third of the daily total. In fact, Upbit’s KRW trades are present in the majority of the major altcoins’ trades this morning.

TRON (TRX) began its climb yesterday before a brief pullback, but when the volumes returned TRON took its fair share. TRX trades rose by just under $100 million, and the resultant surge took the coin to a valuation of $0.023455 – a price not seen since during early September’s dip. That’s up 17% from last night’s low of $0.019994, and once again the Korean influence is felt with 16% of the daily trades coming in the form of the TRX/KRW pair.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 59 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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