The Satoshis Have Aligned: Historical Crypto Chart Suggests Bitcoin Has Already Bottomed

Nobody really needs to be told that the general sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency market right now is very much of the bullish persuasion. Now bear in mind that most coins are still down by between 80-99% since the all-time high, but like the coders say about Silicon Valley, or surfers say about the waves: it’s not a place, it’s a mindset.

Mindset or not, there’s ample historical evidence to suggest that Bitcoin and its merry gang of alts have made it through the worst of the year-long bear market, and that everything from here on out should be considered an accumulation period.

So let’s take a look at the super-mega pump of 2013, and compare its year long decline to that of the 2017-2018 pump. The similarities are striking.

Notice Anything Similar Here?

This first chart shows the December 2013 crypto surge which carried the global market cap from $797 million up to $16 billion within the space of around six months. But we’re more interested in the subsequent decline, which took Bitcoin and company back to around $3 billion – an 81.25% decrease.

The decline following the peak of December 2013

Of particular note is the symmetry of the decline compared to the 2018 decline. As you can see there is a flash dip in the autumn months, followed by a more severe crash during the winter months. Back in January of 2015 when the global cap fell to $3 billion, it was the last time it ever did so in the history of the great cryptocurrency experiment.

On both occasions there was a very risky retest of those bottoms just a month or two afterwards. You may remember the dip back in January, which extended into February of this year and sent several altcoins to new lows. However, the global market cap remained perched above the recent bottom, which was $100 billion in December 2018, and remains the psychological bulwark.

A Look to the Future of Crypto…

We can’t stretch the charts any farther into the future in 2019, but we can take a look at what happened next back in 2015. For most of that year, the global markets remained within a very tight range, and the slight uptick as the year came to an end suggests the previous months would have been well used as an accumulation period.

This next chart shows everything that happened after 2015, and as you can see, it was nothing but gravy from 2016 onwards.

Conclusion

This is just one chart comparison, and there are many other factors which might align by rights or merely by coincidence. One obvious sign that no one can miss is the massive increase in average trade volumes which has occurred ever since the November 2018 flash dip. Bitcoin has been posting daily changeovers of $9 billion and over for the last several weeks now.

Many coins recently covered on Hacked have already reverted back to their peak 2018 trading levels, just without the corresponding coin price. But this volume influx must stand for something. Yesterday seems a long time ago in crypto, but it was only last October when daily trade volume was down around the $7-8 billion range.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Author:
Greg Thomson is a freelance writer who contributes to leading cryptocurrency and blockchain publications like CCN, Hacked, and others.