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The Clock is Ticking

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In what was probably the most high stakes bet in modern times, Theresa May has shown us what happens when you gamble with the world.

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A hung parliament is the worst possible outcome too. The UK has officially triggered Article 50 in March. They have exactly until March of 2019 to make brexit happen.

At this point, they should be prepping negotiations with the EU. The last two months were a monumental waste of time and now it seems that the next two months will be as well.

The Pound is falling, the clock is ticking, May is over, summer is just beginning.

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@MatiGreenspan
Senior Market Analyst @eToro

Market Manipulation

Just moments before the testimony of fired FBI Director James Comey somebody made a rather transparent attempt to manipulate the price of gold.

Usually, if you want to sell a lot of a specific commodity, especially when the trend is going up, a savvy trader will place many different orders at different prices. That way, as the price moves higher you keep getting a better price on every trade.

Yesterday afternoon, somebody placed a single order to sell $4 Billion worth of gold at the current market rate. The order was placed just before Comey’s testimony at a time when the markets were very quiet and liquidity was low, giving it the maximum possible impact on the price.

The reason for this manipulation is quite clear as well. Since the beginning of the year, the precious metal was picking up momentum and has created itself a nice channel towards the sky…

On Tuesday, the price failed to break above the critical $1300 level and pulled back a bit on Wednesday. By putting in that large order, our culprit must have sought to send the price back towards the bottom of the channel rather than let it gather enough steam to cross $1300.

Digital Gold

Meanwhile, gold’s counterpart in the cloud has created some interesting patterns on the chart as well. Bitcoin has made a remarkable recovery since the massive pullback two weeks ago (yellow circle) and since has seen a new all time high of $2927 a coin.

Now, the fact that it recovered so quickly is a good sign. However, in the past, every time bitcoin makes a new high it is immediately followed by a surge. Here we can see that the new high was followed by a pullback.

As well, volumes from Asia have been muted over the past 24 hours and a lot of the trading is happening on speculative exchanges.

Certainly, we know that Bitcoin is becoming more and more useful in Japan and is now accepted in many supermarkets there. However, Mrs. Watanabe, the Japanese trading housewife is very savvy indeed. If she feels she’ll be able to buy in at a better price next week, she’ll likely have the patience to wait.

However, if we do start seeing new highs again, it could lead to another panic surge as analysts continue calling fo $10,000 a coin and higher.

This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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  1. RF1508

    June 9, 2017 at 8:34 am

    Thx for the analysis! I already found that move down in the gold chart a bit funny. Now I know what it was. I am keeping my gold long positions open for the moment. What is your trade recommendation for Gold?

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Analysis

Bitcoin and Gold are Trading Inversely With One Another

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Advocates of bitcoin often compare the digital currency to gold for its finite supply and store-of-value characteristics. While BTC hasn’t come close to dethroning gold as the world’s most trusted safe-haven, it has steadily outperformed bullion amid the latest recovery. This has some people asking whether virtual currencies are eating away into gold’s demand.

Inverse Relationship

Strategists have identified a strong inverse trading pattern between gold and bullion stretching all the way back to the fall, right around the time that cryptocurrencies rebounded from a China-induced selloff. As bitcoin and other cryptos surged, gold experienced a steep fall from a high above $1,351 in early September to a low of $1,241 just three months later.

As bitcoin cooled down in the new year, gold resumed its upward trajectory and eventually peaked near $1,370 at the end of January.

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Below are the charting patterns for gold and bitcoin going back one full year.

The latest divergence is easy to spot. Since hitting a settlement high of $1,360 on Apr. 11, bullion has declined 2%. Over the same period, bitcoin surged 27%.

Bitcoin’s oversized percentage move relative to gold is a reflection of underlying volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Crypto assets as a whole are but a tiny fraction of gold’s $7.8 trillion worth. That said, the digital asset class peaked above $830 billion earlier this year, making the case for a trillion-dollar market more believable.

Systemic Risks

Proponents of bitcoin’s safe-haven status generally agree that the cryptocurrency is well suited to outperform the market during periods of heightened economic and political instability. This is generally believed to be the period in which gold prices thrive. However, unlike gold, bitcoin has also outperformed during periods of relative calm.

The second-largest bull market in history started off as a positive for gold as prices crossed $1,900 a troy ounce in 2011. However, bullion hasn’t been able to hit anywhere near those levels ever since. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been the world’s best-performing currency (if one calls it that) in six of the past eight years.

Although the charts seem to indicate an inverse relationship between gold and bitcoin, it’s much more difficult to prove that investors are swapping one asset for the other at any given time. There’s some anecdotal evidence to suggest this is the case but a lack of trading data makes it difficult to conclude definitively one way or the other.

Supply and demand factors must also be weighed in analyzing the price trajectory of both assets. Gold’s total supply is increasing by an average of less than 2% annually, according to the World Gold Council. At the other end of the spectrum, the final bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140, with total supplies engineered to decline until that date.

On the demand side, gold has been losing its allure as investors continued to pile into stocks. In 2017, appetite for bullion fell by 7%, with gold-backed ETFs plunging to one-third of the previous year’s demand. On the other hand, bitcoin’s demand has skyrocketed as more traders noticed its meteoric rise.

One area in which bitcoin has an advantage over gold is non-correlation. As the above examples clearly demonstrate, BTC is not correlated with the broader market. Gold, on the other hand, is influenced by risk-off sentiment, geopolitics, interest rates and inflation, among others. At present, these factors may play into the hands of bullion as investors prepare for the new business cycle.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 343 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Altcoins

Cryptocurrency Market Approaching $400 Billion as Bitcoin Tests $9,000

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The cryptocurrency market extended its bullish rally on Sunday, as bitcoin and the major altcoins continued to test multi-month highs. Buy orders accounted for the overwhelming majority of transactions, giving rise to expectations of a more sustained upswing in prices.

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Cryptocurrency Rally Continues

The combined value of all cryptocurrencies peaked at $397.2 billion on Sunday, the highest since Mar. 8. At press time, the market was valued just below $394 billion.

Transaction volumes ebbed on Sunday, with daily turnover amounting to $20.8 billion. Volumes were up around $25 billion on Saturday.

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In terms of individual currencies, bitcoin crossed the $9,000 mark for the second time in as many days. The digital currency was last seen trading at $8,932, having gained 4.8%. However, its share of the total market decline to around 38%.

All major altcoins contributed positively to the rally, with Ethereum gaining nearly 5% to $632. The value of Ripple XRP rose 2.6% to $0.886. Bitcoin cash also extended its bullish rally, climbing nearly 7% to $1,226.

Since bottoming at $249 billion on Apr. 6, the cryptocurrency market has added nearly $150 billion in value. Since the market crash of early February, coins have crossed the $500 billion mark on only one occasion, and that was roughly two weeks later. The total market has been capped below $400 billion since early March.

Bulls in Firm Control

The dramatic recovery in cryptocurrency prices can be summed up in one vital statistic: nine out of every ten trades have been buy orders. That figure was as high as 92.9% on Thursday, according to TurtleBTC.

Cryptocurrency trading is largely governed by investor sentiment, especially among speculators entering the market for a quick profit. This environment, when combined with thin volumes, often generates sporadic trading conditions that are characterized by extreme volatility.

Sentiment has been overwhelmingly positive over the last two weeks as investors looked to capitalize on extreme oversold conditions. Traders have seemingly shrugged off negative news headlines concerning India’s crackdown on cryptocurrency trading as well as the state of New York’s inquiry into exchanges.

There’s strong reason to believe that South Korean traders are playing a major role in the price recovery. According to the most recent volume rankings, three South Korean exchanges are among the top-five in total trading volumes.  They are: OKEx ($1.8 billion in daily volume), Upbit ($965 million) and Bithumb ($751 million).

With the recent spike in volume, cryptocurrencies are once again trading at a large premium in South Korea. This is generally the norm during bull cycles due to high demand and supply constraints. These premiums drew negative attention to exchanges last year as government officials began equating cryptocurrency trading with gambling.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 343 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Altcoins

Buyers Control the Cryptocurrency Market More Than Any Time Since March 2017

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The percentage of cryptocurrency traders ‘in the buy’ has reached the highest level in over a year, a strong sign that the market’s two-week recovery has more room to grow.

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Cryptocurrency Buy Markets Surge

Cryptocurrency buy orders now comprise nearly 93% of total market activity, according to data from TurtleBC. That’s the highest percentage since March 2017, when more than 96% of the market was in buy mode. At this time last month, only about 5% of the market was long cryptocurrency.

Interestingly, every major surge in buy orders in the last two years has come after a sharp decline in long positions. As TurtleBC indicates, when the buy market is less than 10%, it likely means that conditions have bottomed and traders are getting ready to purchase again.

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The upsurge in buy orders coincides with a more than $130 billion recovery in cryptocurrency prices since Apr. 6, when the market bottomed near $249 billion. The recovery puts cryptocurrencies in bull market territory, based on the traditional definition of the term. Crypto assets were valued as high as $395.1 billion on Friday, according to CoinMarketCap. The total market cap has since fallen to around $382.2 billion.

The recent uptrend in prices has also been accompanied by a surge in trading volumes, with total market turnover more than doubling from earlier in the month. By Saturday, nearly $25 billion in cryptocurrency exchanged hands. The top-five exchanges – Binance, OKEx, Upbit, Huobi and Bitfinex – accounted for more than one-third of the daily turnover.

Markets Oversold

Gauging the intrinsic value of cryptocurrencies is a contentious subject that usually divides people along political, economic and philosophical lines. However, for most technical strategists, the market was extremely oversold following the first-quarter downturn. For example, bitcoin bottomed below $6,000 after hitting a record high near $20,000 just a few months earlier. A similar trend was observed across most major digital assets.

Advocates of fundamental analysis have been commenting for months that the underlying conditions in the market hadn’t changed very much from the peak of early January. If anything, fundamentals have improved with Lightning Network, new ICO protocols and more governments coming on board to support the blockchain industry.

Most knowledgeable observers of the cryptocurrency market, including Thomas Lee and Dan Morehead, believe now is a good time to buy.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Morehead explained that bitcoin had grown at a rate of 165% annually over the past five years. Gains of this magnitude mean that bitcoin rarely gets below its 200-day moving average. When it does, as was the case recently, now is a good time to buy.

Morehead believes bitcoin will reach $25,000 by year’s end. It currently accounts for roughly 38% of the total market, a figure that usually declines with the bull market.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 343 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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