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The Bear is Coming – Are you prepared?

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More bickering in Washington among the Republican party with Trump taking to Twitter to rail against one senator and another announcing his retirement only to dig into the President.

The fun continues in politics but doesn’t seem to have any effect on the stocks. Tax reform is still widely expected to happen and that’s all that investors care about right now. That and earnings season, which is well underway.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of October 25th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Market Overview

Sometimes all you need is a little push in order to really fly. After taking some minor losses on Monday, the Dow Jones leaped 161 points yesterday.

For dramatic effect, here is a chart of the benchmark index since the turn of the century…

Some great results from CAT and MMM have propelled the markets. AMD put out some good numbers after the closing bell but investors were disappointed about their source of revenues going forward and it is expected to open about 10% lower when the market opens this afternoon.

The VIX volatility index has also woken up and is well above the record low levels seen earlier this month.

Though most analysts agree the market is overpriced, it still doesn’t make sense to go in short. One of my clients on eToro put an excellent rant on the network this morning explaining that this is where patience comes in and predicting that for those who prepare correctly, there could be an opportunity to 10X shortly.

Here’s my favorite part…

The author @NestorArmstrong from Mexico has delivered himself and about 80 copiers a return of 30% since the beginning of the year with an incredibly low stable risk score and virtually no drawdown…

Of course, predicting a market crash can be even tougher than predicting an earthquake so while most investors are still wildly bullish on the markets, now is the time to prepare for the eventuality that the markets will turn and for the abundant opportunities such a turn can bring.

Bitcoin Technical

As we’ve been discussing in these updates, bitcoin has been trading counter to the rest of the digital currencies lately. Here we can see that the original blockchain asset is up about 30% since the beginning of the month even though most of the others are still in negative…

If we do see the digital king start to trek further above $6000 and mark new highs that could certainly kick in the FOMO factor and we could see further surges in price. However, as Nestor says, we need to be prepared and sow the seeds.

Bitcoin has broken just about all the rules of technical and fundamental analysis but for now, it’s the only thing we have to go by. By fundamental analysis, we’ve got some calling for $0 and some for $100,000 and just about everything in between.

If we’re looking for a perfect entry and if the price does indeed come down further, we need to look at the graph from the beginning of the year. A mighty graph indeed.

The white line does indeed represent a solid form of resistance. Even though it’s quite a sharp incline the line has yet to be broken.

On the bottom, however, it’s difficult to find the exact support. Many are of the mind that the dotted blue line can indeed hold and we have only to go up from here. The yellow line in my mind is a bit more practical. Meeting that yellow line at about $4500 a coin would represent a total pullback of 25% from the peak.

As always, all questions, comments, and feedback are extremely welcome. Tag me on eToro or any other social network. I’m always glad to hear from you.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 152 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Altcoins

Targeted Marketing: How to Sell Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency to the Masses

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According to recent data from data management platform Lotame, advertisers have abandoned their usual broad-stroke marketing efforts in favour of more specific methods.

The ‘parent’ demographic once ranked as the highest possible target an advertiser could aim for – get the parents and you get the entire household. But that’s changed in recent years, and advertisers now aim for ‘advanced demographics’.

Such advanced demographic markers vary wildly, and advertising spending has been re-allocated to reflect newly identified buyer groups.

This has seen advertisers increase their spending by 451% to attract ‘animal lovers’. One advertiser increased its spending 98% to target the hispanic population – the largest racial minority in the U.S. Others boosted their budgets by various amounts in order to snare millennials (32%) and ‘young Gen-X’ (29%)

The Problem with Blockchain and Crypto Marketing?

If advertisers can see the wisdom in laser-targeted marketing, why shouldn’t blockchain marketers take the same route?

In my experience, most current blockchain marketing is stuck on a small scale. The general public is not being marketed to. Instead, PR is mostly directed towards other people already in the space, such as journalists (No, Ms. Xhu, I can’t publish an ad for your new coin).

I went to the discord server of a prominent altcoin recently, and the ‘marketing’ channel was full of coordinated attempts to ride the coat-tails of prominent twitter personalities and their tweets. ‘This tweet’s getting traction…jump on it and promote our coin!’

Marketing efforts are directed at ICO reviewers, YouTube personalities and cryptocurrency news outlets. In other words, marketers are only doing enough to get noticed by people who are already here. Most of this is done with the simple goal of making it successfully out of the ICO stage – like an independent movie producer pulling every dirty trick they can just to get a strong opening.

Can Targeted Marketing Help the Crypto Space?

As things stand, the default sales pitch of Bitcoin and/or cryptocurrency is that it has the potential to bring down the banksters, revolutionize the financial system, and put financial control in the hands of the people.

Maybe I’m not the best salesman, because when I explain it to people they rarely display the kind of enthusiasm described in the field-manual.

My point is not everyone wants to be a revolutionary – or even a libertarian. Rather than market the full terrifying potential of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency to one and all, wouldn’t it be wiser to break it up into chunks and spread it around various advanced demographics?

Advanced Demographics of the Crypto Space?

Well, the animal lovers demo might already be sewn up by Cryptokitties; and it seems like Dentacoin has dentists covered for now.

But what about the demographic difference between the young and old? Rich and poor? Can cryptocurrency serve working class people more than middle class people? We know Bitcoin is adopted by people desperate to avoid taxes, but so too is it used by those who give to charity.

To push the point further, one can imagine immortal enemies Alex Jones and George Soros being equally enthusiastic about cryptocurrency, but for radically different reasons.

I suspect the early battles in the blockchain revolution will be won in the front end of the shop, through careful targeting of the everyday needs of specific individuals. The internet didn’t spread to everyone in equal time – its outreach never exceeded the applicability it held for whatever individual was next in line to use it.

The goal of cryptocurrency marketers must be to find those applications in the real world and magnify them to such an extent that they can’t be ignored.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 146 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Altcoins

Crypto Markets are Up $16 Billion Since Sunday; What’s Behind the Rally?

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Cryptocurrency prices are flashing green on Tuesday, as bitcoin and the major altcoins extended an early-week rally that was brought on by a sudden surge in trade volumes. The market’s performance over the past two days suggests that the big buyers are absorbing selling pressure following weeks of mostly lateral moves for the majors.

Market Update

The combined value of all coins reached $135.8 billion on Tuesday, the highest since early January, according to CoinMarketCap. The total market capitalization has increased by nearly $16 billion since Sunday.

At the time of writing, the top 30 coins were all reporting gains. Double-digit gainers included EOS (+15.3%), bitcoin cash (+10.6%) and Stellar (+11.6). Each of these top cryptocurrencies were considered severely oversold during the latest bout of selling pressure that extended into February.

EOS is tracking weekly gains of 30% and has moved well north of $3.60. The cryptocurrency had been firmly capped below $3.00 since November amid the wider market downturn and fallout from the ICO bust. EOS currently has a market capitalization of more than $3.3 billion, inching closer to its ICO value of $4 billion.

Oversized gains for EOS pushed Litecoin back down to the no. 5 spot in the crypto market cap index. Litecoin is currently trading below $49.00, having gained 5.3%.

Bitcoin, the market’s primary bellwether, reached an average aggregate price of $4,010.15, according to CoinMarketCap. That represents a gain of 5% over the past 24 hours. The bitcoin price traded as high as $4.083 on Bitfinex. More on this story: Bitcoin Blows Past $4,000 as Volume Surges to 10-Month High.

Volumes Tell a Story

An eye-popping surge in trade volume across all exchanges and cryptocurrencies was the primary catalyst behind the rally. But what’s driving volume, and why was the burst so sudden? A closer look at exchange-based volumes reveals that market activity has been rising steadily since at least October. In fact, data from Flipside Crypto reveals that the volume pump may have originated last summer when long-dormant bitcoin accounts began transferring funds onto exchanges.

Bitcoin’s circulating supply has been rising since last July, with the most dramatic surge occurring over a 30-day stretch between December and January. As Hacked reported at the time, “It’s clear that many of these dormant account holders are preparing to become active traders once again.”

Volumes have been consistently higher throughout the year. Ethereum, the market’s no. 2 cryptocurrency by total capitalization, recently printed its largest-ever volume on Bitfinex. Over a three-week period ending Feb. 15, so-called “smart money” absorbed selling pressure to the tune of 13.627 million ETH. That was equivalent to $1.8 billion at the time. As Hacked analyst Kiril Nikolaev noted, “Whales had to commit such an amount to keep prices from falling further. Even for rich people, this is a huge investment.”

Related: Ethereum Price Analysis: Volume Spike Pushes ETH/USD to Monthly Highs.

Trade volumes across all exchanges and cryptocurrencies topped $36 billion on Tuesday. During long stretches of ‘crypto winter,’ daily trade volumes were in the $10-$12 billion range. Since the new year, daily turnover has averaged more than $15 billion.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 772 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Blows Past $4,000 as Volume Surges to 10-Month High

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Bitcoin’s bulls maintained full control of the market on Tuesday, as the BTC/USD exchange rate crossed $4,000 for the first time since early January. In the process, exchange-based volumes surged to their highest levels in ten months.

BTC/USD: Breakout Eyed

The bitcoin price crossed $4,000 on Bitfinex and reached a session high of $4,048. That was the highest level since Jan. 8. At the time of writing, BTC/USD printed $4,006.30 on Bitfinex, having gained 0.7%. The latest recovery attempt has produced strong momentum for the bitcoin price, as evidenced by the hourly relative strength index (RSI).

Aggregate data provided by CoinMarketCap show an average bitcoin price of $3,921.67 as of Tuesday morning. That’s a gain of 4.2% over 24-hour cycle.

Read more: Bitcoin Surges to Five-Week High; Crypto Bulls Reignite?

In terms of technical indicators, bitcoin must return above $4,200 to negate the long-term downtrend. This is the high from late December and represents the 15-week moving average prior to the last breakout attempt. Beyond that, the bulls must return above $5,500 and eventually break the 50-week moving average near $6,800 to convince traders that a full-blown recovery is afoot.

Has Bitcoin Bottomed? A Closer Look at the Bullish and Bearish Cases

Trade Volumes Surge

The rally on Tuesday is a continuation of a sudden breakout that began more than 24 hours ago. On Monday, bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market rose to five-week highs thanks to a confluence of technical and fundamental forces.

A significant rise in trade volumes has underpinned the market’s push north. More than $10 billion worth of bitcoin traded hands on virtual exchanges in the last 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap data, that’s the highest since April 2018. Virtual currency exchanges processed nearly $36 billion worth of cryptocurrency transactions over the same period.

The following chart highlights the extent of the volume surge on individual exchanges. Three exchanges processed more than $1 billion in adjusted volume; 12 more reported adjusted volumes of $500 million or greater. The billion-dollar exchanges are Binance, Bit-Z and OKEx.

The volume surge has contributed to higher volatility over the past two days. As of Monday, bitcoin’s 30-day volatility index rose to 2.24%, according to bitvol.info. That’s a gain of 32 basis points from Sunday, when volatility fell to three-month lows.

For crypto traders, volatility is a double-edged sword; a dramatic swing in price makes things like market timing and technical analysis more difficult to use. Significant levels of volatility also make rapid price declines more likely. On the opposite side of the ledger, the 2017 bull market showed that volatility can lead to parabolic gains for bitcoin and its altcoin peers.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 772 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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