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Is the Tesla stock worth owning for the long-term?

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Tesla’s stock has seen huge volatility in 2017. The stock rose from about $215 at the start of the year to hit a high of $386.99 on June 23 – an increase of 80%. Thereafter, it fell more than 21% within a matter of 15 days. Tesla is a difficult stock to analyze as the usual valuation metrics don’t apply to it.

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Key observations

  • Tesla is changing the way we drive but it will take time for the change to happen
  • Tesla’s cars are popular in their segment
  • Model 3 is the key for the company’s future
  • The company is diversifying beyond manufacturing cars
  • Electric vehicle competition is heating up
  • At the current valuation, Tesla can’t afford any errors
  • Due to high risk and uncertainty, it is better to avoid this stock as a long-term bet

Out of the 16 analysts who offer a 12-month target price for Tesla Inc, the highest is $464, while the lowest is $155 and the median is $309.5. It has seven outperform/buy recommendations and seven underperform/sell recommendations. Nine analysts rate the stock as a hold. That shows the extent of division among the analysts.

But why is there such a large disparity in analysts’ expectations?

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Tesla is a disruptive technology

Tesla is not like any other automobile company that manufactures and sells cars. It is attempting to revolutionize the sector and change the way we drive. In pursuing this dream, the company will stumble along the way and face numerous roadblocks. Therefore, to analyze Tesla with the same performance metrics as the other car manufacturers is a futile exercise.

The believers in the company are confident that Tesla will be able to achieve its objective and assume a leadership position in the future. Hence, they are valuing Tesla with a high premium compared to the other automakers.

The non-believers, on the other hand, feel that the other automobile manufacturers will catch up with Tesla, which will prevent it from commanding a sizeable lead over other companies. Hence, they have valued Tesla like any other car company.

So, as investors, what should we do?

Before we dive into the specific details of Tesla, let’s first check the market share of electric vehicles out of the total car sales.

Current market share of electric cars

Globally, the number of electric vehicles in 2016 rose to 2 million, an increase of 60% over the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

However, even with the increase, the total share of the plug-in and battery-operated vehicles is only a minuscule 0.2% of the total light-duty vehicles sold. Nevertheless, the numbers will increase in the years ahead, as various countries move towards reducing pollution.

Electric Vehicle Initiative is a program involving major developed nations like the US, China, parts of Europe and the UK, which aims to increase the market share of electric vehicles to 30% by 2030. India, though not a part of the above group – but has more than a billion in population and a growing middle class – has said that it wants to sell only electric cars by the end of the next decade.

Optimistic figure by BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale is for the electric vehicle market to grow to 450 million by 2035. The future for electric vehicles looks promising.

Is Tesla a leader in its segment?

Source: Inside EVs

The monthly sales figures above show that two of Tesla’s models are among the top 5 selling electric cars in the US. This shows that the current models of Tesla are popular and in demand.

But, what does the analyst community expect from Tesla in the future?

Tesla invests heavily in R&D and is a leader in revolutionizing the plug-in technology. The efforts of today will benefit Tesla in the future to sell more cars.

The latest Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook by Bloomberg New Energy Finance puts Tesla in the driver’s seat and expects it to emerge as “the stand-out” with total sales of 709,000 vehicles by 2021.

“If they can stick to the Model 3 timeline, they’re going to be at the front edge of this for a while,” BNEF analyst Colin McKerracher said of Tesla in a phone interview to Bloomberg.

As shown above, expectations are that Tesla will extend its lead over the other car makers in the next five years.

Huge expectations from the Model 3 launch

Currently, the deliveries of the two cars, Model S and Model X has plateaued for the past four quarters. However, there is a huge expectation from the new car, Model 3.

This is the car that is likely to boost Tesla’s car sales exponentially, because it has been priced attractively at $35,000, way lower than its two current offerings. This helps a number of people to own a top-class electric car at an affordable price. Its popularity can be gauged from the 400,000 pre-orders – people who have paid to reserve a Model 3 car.

Elon Musk’s tweets confirm that the first delivery of 30 cars will be given to the lucky owners on July 28. Thereafter, in August, the company expects to manufacture 100 units and increase it to 1500 in September. It hopes to reach 20,000 cars by the end of the year.

Eventually, The Verge expects Tesla to manufacture 500,000 cars annually. Therefore, the next few months will be important for Tesla.

The user reviews of the new car and the company’s ability to meet production timelines will affect its stock price.

Tesla is planning to expand beyond manufacturing cars

While valuing Tesla, one should keep in mind that it isn’t only a car manufacturing company. In order to realize the dream of electrifying the way we travel, Tesla had to bring down the cost of the Lithium-ion batteries and also mass produce them.

This led to the birth of Gigafactory, a facility, which will have a capacity of up to 35 gigawatt hours of cell production and 50 gigawatt hours of pack production by 2018, reports Bloomberg.

Tesla plans to manufacture battery packs for homes and for backup of the electric grid. It has already inked a deal to supply 20 megawatts/80 megawatt-hours of energy storage to Southern California Edison.

Tesla’s purchase of SolarCity Corp., underlines its goal to become a clean-energy company in the future.

What are Tesla’s competitors doing?

While Tesla is out to change the way we drive, the traditional automakers have taken note of the changing requirement of the public for a cleaner vehicle.

Therefore, the big auto companies like General Motors, Nissan, Ford, Toyota are also jumping into this fray with their own electric or plug-in hybrid cars.

Volvo, the Swedish car manufacturer, owned by the Chinese automotive conglomerate Geely, has gone a step ahead. In a recent press release, it announced that every car launched by Volvo from 2019 will have an electric motor – both fully electric cars and hybrid cars.

“This is about the customer,” said Håkan Samuelsson, president and chief executive.

“People increasingly demand electrified cars and we want to respond to our customers’ current and future needs. You can now pick and choose whichever electrified Volvo you wish.”

Other than this there are a number of new startups who have jumped into the fray.

Therefore, Tesla will not have it easy. It will have to weather increasing competition from the traditional automakers and startups. Hence, the market will watch the performance of every electric car – both Tesla’s and its competitors – to justify the premium valuation Tesla enjoys.

Tesla has a very small room for error. Any failure can start a deeper correction in the stock, similar to the one that started on July 3.

Technically, what does Tesla’s chart predict?

Tesla was trading in a range for more than three years. It finally broke out of it in April of this year. From there, the stock had a near vertical rally, rising about 35% within a matter of a few weeks. In doing so, it came very close to its target objective of $396, where it saw a bout of profit booking.

Nevertheless, any breakout of a long consolidation, pulls back and retests the breakout level. Tesla’s stock is currently doing that. It remains bullish as long as it trades above the $280 levels. However, since the fall from the highs of $386.95 has been vicious, it’s better to wait for some kind of a consolidation before entering any fresh long positions.

Conclusion

Tesla is attempting to change the way we drive; however, it is still in early stages of that change and will not turn a decent profit for a few more quarters. Therefore, its valuation will only be decided on its future prospects. The investor has to be up to date with every news related to the stock, because with its current valuation, it cannot afford any misstep. With too many variables attached to the stock, it is better to avoid it as a long-term investment. The investors can look at more stable stocks with a clearer earnings projection for their long-term portfolio.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




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Stock Picks: MAC, DRNA, CMCSA, SHOO and ABEO

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

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Macerich (MAC)

Maserich is included into the S&P 500. Its major activity is acquiring, selling, managing, developing, and remodeling shopping malls all over the US. As of now, Maserich owns around 53M square feet of commercial property, which includes 48 retail shopping malls.

Maserich stocks fall into the Financial Retail category; over the last week, they fell by 0.55%.

Technically, the stock tried to break out the 200-day SMA and start forming an ascending trend. With $60 acting as a strong resistance, its breakout may issue a signal of such a trend really forming. Meanwhile, the support is at $57, while the first major target is 10 dollars higher, at $67.

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The investment fund transactions show the market is becoming interested in the stock, and while the buys are still very low, at around 0.29%, one should bear in mind that Maserich had not been previously considered as something valuable at all, so even such a small buying volume may boost future performance.

Over the last two months, the stock declined, but for now open sell positions are not that high, just around 4.87%. As such, the decline did not draw too much traders’ attention; it even acted in a contrary way, making Maserich quite attractive.

Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (DRNA)

Dicerna Pharmaceuticals was founded in 2006. A biopharmaceutical company, its major is creating drugs for curing chronic liver and cardiovascular diseases.

The company falls into Healthcare/Biotechnology sector. It showed a good rise last week, jumping up by 12.88%.

Chiefly, this is due to the company having resolved its dispute with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals. Dicerna Pharmaceuticals finally agreed on paying $2M and grant Alnylam 983,208 shares (equals to around $12M), with more $13M to be paid within the Following four years.

2017 saw Dicerna Pharmaceuticals with $114M net profit; thus, the upfront payment of $2M (less than 2% of profit) is not going to weigh that much. The agreement on staged payments during the next 4 years was also positive, as the company would suffer much more losses if the dispute had not been resolved.

The board members did not take any significant actions during the trials, i.e. neither bought nor sold any shares. In the meantime, the funds cut their share by 2.3%, but with over 84% still remaining, this is not a big deal either. Besides, the news on the dispute being resolved came only Friday, with all market action going to take place this week.

Open selling positions percentage (2.74%) shows the investors are not very much interested in selling Dicerna, while many bears locked in their profits Friday, when the stocks rose as much as by 17.86%.

Technically, there is an ascending trend forming, with the price being above the 200-day SMA. As long as the price manages to break out $11 level and close above it, this trend may continue, having a chance to test $17, the analysts say.

Comcast (CMCSA)

Comcast Corporation is a global telecommunication giant, being the leading broadcasting corporation in the world in terms of revenue. This is also the second biggest pay cable TV and internet provider company. Besides, Comcast has been involved into TV shows and movies production since 2011.

Comcast falls into Service (Entertainment – Diversified) sector. It has grown just by 0.58% over the last week.

The Service sector in general performed badly last week, with just 2.1% growth, which shows the overall situation is a bit sore.

Technically, a descending trend is prevailing, with the price being below the 200-day SMA. The support is currently located at $33, that, if broken put, may push the prices further below to $30.

The board members have recently decreased their share by 4.95%, while the investment funds are very little interested in the company, with just a 0.1% buy. Still, the open short positions are quite low, too, being at 1.33%, which allows some room for the company growth. Still, this may only happen in case the price breaks out $35, being then able to go towards $36.

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)

Steven Madden was founded back in 1990 and named after its founder, Stephen Madden, who is both a businessman and a fashion designer. The company creates and sells footwear and fashionable accessories for men, women, and kids.

Steven Madden, Ltd. falls into the Consumer Goods (Textile – Apparel Footwear & Accessories) sector. Over the last week, the company stocks rose by 2.05%.

Overall, Consumer Goods sector was the weakest one last week, having fallen by 3.4%. The way Steven Madden are doing is quite optimistic compared to that, and this allows one to assume this rise is going to continue.

The investment fund longs are very low, at around 0.33%, but this is quite obvious, as their overall share has already reached 95.6%.

Technically, there is an ascending trend forming, with the price being above the 200-day SMA. Breakout of $48 may lead to the stock growing further.

Many analysts say Steven Madden may well reach $53 or even $58 per share.

Abeona Therapeutics Inc. (ABEO)

Abeona Therapeutics Inc was founded back in 1974; this biopharmaceutical company develops methods of curing rare and life-threatening genetic diseases.

The company falls into Healthcare/Biotechnology sector. Over the last week, its price per share increased by 5.82%.

Overall, Healthcare fell by 0.1% last week, which makes ABEO a pretty much attractive asset.

The percentage of open short positions is very high (37.11%), which may lead to a very sharp increase in price. Meanwhile, the company shares have already increased from $14 further on, as many traders started closing their selling transactions after the analysts missed the quarterly earnings forecast.

With such a high sell-off percentage, the investment funds have still increased their share by 1.14%, to reach 63.20%.

Technically, there is an ascending trend forming, with the price being above the 200-day SMA. The key support at $20 has already been broken out, which may allow the price go further to reach its target at $26.

The analysts say ABEO may well reach $26 or even $36 per share.

 

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.2 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsI have two degrees in Social Psychology and Economy. After graduation I worked as the Head of the Laboratory of Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Financial Markets at The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The experience and skills he gained helped me to realize my potential as an analyst-trader and a portfolio manager in an investment company. At the moment I'm a financial expert, writing for various financial media sources and a Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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Stock Picks: Fluor Corporation and F5 Networks Incorporated

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The S&P 500 (SPX) showed indecision yesterday, April 23, as it moved as high as 2,682.86 but closed the day at 2,670.29. If the index once again revisits 2,600, the support may no longer hold. Stay defensive and only invest in stocks that have strong bullish sentiments like the names that we have below.

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FLR – Fluor Corporation

Fluor Corporation (FLR) is a multinational Fortune 500 publicly-traded engineering, procurement, fabrication, construction (EPFC) and maintenance company founded in 1912. It provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, commissioning and maintenance, and project management services in the following segments: Energy, Chemicals & Mining; Industrial, Infrastructure & Power; Government, and Maintenance, Modification & Asset Integrity (MMAI). The company’s subsidiaries include American Equipment Company, Inc., Otay River Constructions, and ADP Marshall, Inc., among others.

Technical analysis show that FLR has taken out resistance of 60 on April 23, 2018. The price action triggered the large inverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. The breakout was validated by heavy volume as volume rose by over 107% yesterday. In addition, the RSI is not yet in overbought territory. Expect the stock to follow through in today’s trading to further validate the trend reversal.  

Furthermore, fundamental analysis show that the trailing twelve months (TTM) price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of FLR is 45.21. While the PE ratio tells us that the stock is already expensive, its five-year maximum of 58.92 shows that it has some more room for growth.

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The strategy is to buy as close to 60 as possible. If bulls continue to hold this level, they may create a base and move to our target of 80. The process may take more than a year.

Weekly FLR Chart

Monthly FLR Chart

As of this writing, the Fluor Corporation stock is trading at 61.48.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 60 as possible.

Target: 80

Stop: 54

FFIV – F5 Networks Incorporated

F5 Networks Incorporated is an American company that develops, markets, and sells application delivery networking (ADN) for the security, performance, availability of servers, data storage devices, and other network and cloud resources. It offers products based on its Traffic Management Operating System (TMOS) and Access Policy Manager (APM). The company operates primarily in the United States but also in Europe, the Middle East, Africa (EMEA), Japan, and the Asia Pacific region (APAC). F5 Networks was incorporated in 1996.

Technical analysis show that FFIV has taken out 149 resistance on April 13, 2018 and triggered the large cup and handle pattern on the daily chart. The price action was validated by extremely heavy volume and a follow through that saw the stock go as high as 161.58 on April 17. At this point, however, FFIV was already flashing overbought signals. It needs to correct and create a new base to keep its ascent sustainable. That’s where you can come in.

In addition, fundamental analysis show that FFIV’s trailing twelve months (TTM) PE ratio stands at 24.34. It may look like the stock is already fairly valued but it’s five-year maximum of 33.68 indicates that investors believe in the company’s potential for growth.

The strategy is to wait for the dip and buy as close to 149 as possible. As long as FFIV is above 149, it has enough bullish momentum to reach 183.

The process may take more than a year.

Daily FFIV Chart

Weekly FFIV Chart

As of this writing, the F5 Networks Incorporated stock is trading 157.72.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 149 as possible.

Target: 183

Stop: close below 140.

 

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 149 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Stock Picks: General Motors and Everest RE Group

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The S&P 500 (SPX) appears to have filled the gap between 2,695.68 and 2,709.79 on the daily chart as the index went as high as 2,717.49 on April 18. However, it seems that SPX has generated another lower high. Unless the index can move above 2,720 soon, it is in danger of creating a bearish descending triangle pattern.

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With the SPX showing signs of weakness, let’s look at stocks that are near firm support levels.

GM – General Motors Company

General Motors Company (GM) is an American multinational corporation that designs, builds, and sells cars, trucks, crossovers, and automobile parts. Founded in 1908, it now has 180,000 employees across 35 countries worldwide. The company’s operational segments include GM North America (GMNA), GM Europe (GME), GM International Operations (GMIO), GM South America (GMSA) and General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial). In General Motors’ portfolio are the brands Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Holden, and Wuling.

Technical analysis show that GM has taken out resistance of 37 on September 8, 2017 and triggered the inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern on the weekly chart. The stock went as high as 46.76 on October 24, 2017 and hit the target of the pattern before it retreated and dipped to 34.50 on March 27, 2018.

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The stock, however, has recently reclaimed 37. As long as that level holds, the large cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart is still in play.

In addition, fundamental analysis show that the trailing twelve months (TTM) price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of GM is 21.35. While the PE ratio looks as if the stock is already fairly valued, its five-year maximum shows that it has still room to grow. GM’s maximum TTM PE ratio in the last five years was 32.18. Based on this number, we can say that GM has some more upside potential.

The strategy is to buy as close to 37 as possible. If bulls continue to hold this level, they may create a base and crawl to our target of 54. The process may take more than a year.

Weekly GM Chart

Monthly GM Chart

As of this writing, the General Motors Company stock is trading at 37.61.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 37 as possible.

Target: 54

Stop: 34.50

RE – Everest RE Group Limited

Everest Re Group (RE) is a company engaged in insurance and reinsurance underwriting. Founded in 1973, its products now range from property and casualty reinsurance to marine, aviation, surety, errors and omissions liability (E&O), directors’ and officers’ liability (D&O), medical malpractice, accident and health (A&H), and workers’ compensation insurance.

Technical analysis show that RE bottomed out in December 2017 when it dropped to 208.81. The stock has been rallying since and has even managed to go as high as 264.88 on March 21, 2018. Bears repelled the advance, but the stock appears to be carving a bullish higher low setup above 240. If this level holds, RE may use it to take out 265 resistance.

Moreover, fundamental analysis show that RE’s trailing twelve months (TTM) PE ratio stands at 22.13. This looks like a reasonable PE ratio but it’s five-year maximum of 38.36 indicates that investors are willing to pay a premium. In other words, RE has some more potential for growth.

The strategy is to buy at current market level. If the stock holds the higher low of 241.80, bulls will likely use it to create a base and breach 265 resistance. Once breakout is complete, the stock may march to our target of 320.

The process may take more than a year.

Daily RE Chart

Weekly RE Chart

As of this writing, the Everest RE Group Limited stock is trading 246.99.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: At current market price of 246.99.

Target: 320

Stop: 241.80

 

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 149 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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