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Technical Update: Gold Continues Sliding, Falls Below Key Support

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On May 17, we discussed gold breaking below the lower boundary of its 4-month, 70-dollar trading range (trading range – $1,300 to $1,370 in Figure 1 and horizontal trendlines in Figure 2 – GLD shown).

Figure 1. Gold Daily Chart

Technical Developments

  • After the initial break below the horizontal trading range, gold found support at the trendline connecting the December 2016 & December 2017 lows (support – green trendline; retest – last green arrow).
  • Over the next couple of weeks, the commodity staged several attempts to move back within the horizontal range however it halted at two major resistances:
    1. Its 200 SMA (white line in Figure 2 and blue line in Figure 1).
    2. The support-turned-resistance horizontal trendlines (lower bright blue and purple trendlines in Figure 2).
  • On Friday (June 15), gold moved below the trendline that had served as support in May and June (green trendline).
  • This week, the commodity has continued to slide, so far, giving no indications that it will quickly recover and move above its broken support.

Figure 2. GLD Daily Chart

Implications

  • Gold’s sharp decline on June 15 confirmed the importance of the green trendline. The break below it is deemed significant, at least in the short-term.
  • Given the break below the 1.5-year support (green trendline) and the lack of major support levels in the $1,240 – $1,280 range, the target obtained from the trading range breakdown is likely to be met (target – $1,230 obtained by projecting the $70-dollar height of the pattern from the point of the breakdown).

Outlook

  • Short-term bearish as long as the commodity remains below the lower of the green trendline and its 200 SMA (currently at $1,308).
  • Neutral with a bullish bias if gold quickly moved back above the green trendline and subsequently above its 200 SMA.
  • Short- and long-term bullish above $1,380, as a break above 2016’s high will activate the previously discussed longer-term upward targets.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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    Analysis

    Pre-Market: China Tries to Support Markets as Global Stocks Slide

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    Yesterday’s risk-off shift continued today in early trading with nervous and choppy trading in Asia and Europe, as global financial markets are still haunted by trade war fears and emerging market weakness. The major US indices rolled over after another period of apparent relative strength, with the Nasdaq being the most robust market once again, while most of the key European benchmarks continue to lag behind.

    S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    Chinese assets are still in focus before the weekend, as the Yuan’s recent steep devaluation sparked fears of a credit meltdown in the country. With the largest credit bubble in human history casting its shadow on China, some analysts think that with Trump’s trade war, the bug finally found its windshield and the bubble already started to burst.

    USD/Yuan, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    All eyes are on the USD/Yuan pair as Chinese authorities are reportedly intervening in the market of the currency, and most likely local equities as well, trying to prevent a serious run on the most important assets.

    With the Chinese stock market already in a bear market, and the Yuan trading at fresh 12-month lows against the Dollar, it might be a bit late to stop the slide, but the intervention could cause spectacular short squeezes.

    Italy also made headlines today during the European session, as Italian government bonds got slammed lower, as the future of the new finance minister is uncertain, with another round of political turmoil possibly ahead for Europe’s most vulnerable country.

    Unicredit (UCG), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    Looking at the charts of Italian banks, it’s clear that the spring turmoil had a lasting effect on the financial system, as Unicredit is on the verge of hitting a new low, and the other large players also remain under pressure, in part explaining the general weakness in European equities.

    Europe Still Far Behind amid Mixed Economic Numbers

    USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    The economic calendar is almost empty today with regards to the key markets, as the Canadian Retail Sales and CPI reports are the most important releases. The Canadian Dollar rebounded when the USD entered a correction June, but now the currency edging lower again, as the weakness in commodities and the Greenback’s rally are taking their toll. New highs are likely in the USD/CAD pair in the coming weeks, although strong resistance is just ahead at 1.33.

    Commodities are little changed today after yesterday’s volatile session, as the bounce in China helped to stabilize the segment. Notably copper is back above the key $2.70 level, while WTI crude oil is trading at $68 per barrel again, and gold is hovering around $1225.

    Featured image from Shutterstock

    Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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    4.6 stars on average, based on 296 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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    Analysis

    Crypto Update: Bitcoin Holds $7350 as Altcoins Show Weakness

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    It has been another two-faced session so far in the cryptocurrency segment, as Bitcoin’s strength was in stark contrast with the widespread weakness among altcoins. Besides BTC only Dash is slightly in the green among the top 20 coins, and most of the majors are back in their previous trading ranges after the failed break-out, with still only Bitcoin sporting a short-term buy signal according to our trend model.

    The mixed, but dominantly still bearish short-term picture means that traders should still be cautious with new positions, as, despite Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, a test of the June lows is still likely with regards to most of the majors, and new lows are also possible in the coming weeks.

    For now, the trading ranges that developed after the June lows are still intact, and the previously negatively diverging coins should still be closely monitored for signs of weakness. On the contrary, should a distinct bullish leadership emerge, a trend change would be more likely, but for now, the technical evidence suggests that the segment-wide downtrend is still intact.

    BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    Bitcoin avoided a breakdown below its break-out levels yesterday despite the widespread altcoin weakness and it managed to recover above the $7350 support/resistance level, keeping the bullish move intact. That said, the coin failed to trigger any form of follow-through among the majors, and that makes the break-out suspicious. Further support is at the line-in-the-sand $7000 level, at $6750, and $6500, while primary resistance is ahead at $7650.

    Weak Bounce in Altcoins Following the Failed Break-Out

    ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    No altcoins triggered a short-term buy signal and most of the currencies experienced a failed breakout, but today the segment stabilized and for now, the June lows are safe. Ethereum continues to be relatively weak from a short-term perspective, as the coin settled down near the $475 level, failing to rally back towards $500.

    A move the lower end of the range is likely now, with primary support found at $450, with other levels at $420, $400, $380, and $360, and with further resistance ahead between $555 and $575.

    DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    Thanks to its scarce liquidity, Dash turned very volatile during yesterday’s wild session, but despite the spikes on several exchanges, the coin remained in a similar technical setup as Litecoin, NEO, and Monero, the other relatively weak coins. These coins failed to recover above the structural breakdown levels, and remained on a long-term sell signal, despite Bitcoin’s encouraging rally. Dash should durably recover above $265 to trigger a short-term buy signal, but a move back to $215 seems more likely now.

    XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    Ripple is also among the weaker coins today and it failed to stay above the $0.49 resistance level, despite the intraday rally. Now XRP is still above the key long-term level which coincides with June low, but a test of that zone is likely in the coming weeks, as the short-term setup is still bearish. Further resistance is ahead at $0.54 and at $0.575, while primary support is now found at $0.45.

    Featured image from Shutterstock

    Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

    Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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    4.6 stars on average, based on 296 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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    Altcoins

    TenX: Look What’s Going On

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    How is this for an attention getter? The price of TenX had jumped almost 250% since late June to around the $1.22 level.

    Since it peaked at $5.00 around Christmas time, TenX investors have lost big time. So, is the recent action grounds for excitement? I believe the answer is yes. After taking a close look, there are some very cool things about TenX. Of course there is always a difference between a flashy whitepaper and a finished product, but TenX could deliver some interesting stuff. So stay with me and let’s take a look.

    The Basic Structure

    Just for starters, TenX is a debit card driven wallet. But that is only part of the story. The founders claim to offer a major game changer by enabling users to spend their blockchain assets through their mobile phone or a physical debit card. That is a very cool way facilitate mass acceptance of crypto, but TenX is hardly the first.

    There are already quite a few including Xapo, Bitwala, Monaco, Tokencard and Wirex that have been around for several years. On the other hand, TenX’s ICO raised $64 million taking the #8 ranking in 2017 for the biggest raise. Presumably somebody back then looked at all the competition and decided to place their bets on TenX.

    Uniqueness

    On the surface, TenX is a project to make a better mouse trap. They claim to be the only company to be able to make multiple cryptocurrencies instantly spendable. If you do some digging you will see how others like Bitwala, Monaco and Tokencard focus solely on Bitcoin or Ether. TenX’s current list includes Bitcoin, Ether and Dash. The idea is to eventually include virtually any blockchain asset.

    To make this all happen the COMET network is under development. The acronym stands for Routing Protocol and Cross-chain Payment Channels. The goal is to create a trustless, instantaneous network that is, above all else, lowest cost provider.

    At the outset, the TenX app or physical debit card will be accepted in roundly 200 countries and 36 million locations.

    TenX Promises To Be Cheaper

    In addition to accepting Bitcoin, Ether and Dash, TenX also incorporates both MasterCard and Visa. All customer assets are held in crypto form until the last moment before being converted to the designated fiat currency. Cardholder transaction fees are free. Instead, holders receive 0.1% refund on purchases.

    Milestones

    The release of the iOS and Android version of the mobile app started in October of last year and both versions of the mobile application available for download in all countries.

    One of the nice things is the ease of signing up with the app that is a lesson in user friendliness that most crypto exchanges could draw a lesson from. The only drawback for some potential users is the requirement to list both place of residence as well as place of citizenship. For most this is not a big deal but could offend some crypto purists.

    As of April, TenX offered full support for BTC, ETH and Litecoin (LTC). Later this year, the intent is to add additional support for all other ERC20 tokens as well as Ripple.

    The next step is for TenX to receive approval for a banking license. When this takes place, TenX will be able to issue it’s own debit or even credit card without dependence on the Visa or MasterCard networks or other third party issuers. In my view, that is when the real fun begins for investors.

    Management

    Having over $60 million from their ICO enables the project to be fully staffed. In addition to four co-founders, there are sixteen engineers, a dozen members on the operations side, seven in Legal & Compliance, six in product design and development and over a half dozen in related capacities. In other words, this is company appears well beyond the whitepaper stage and capable of delivering on their bold promises.

     Why The Price Tumbled

    In early January, just as the crypto selling wave was going into high gear, Visa announced that it was terminating its relationship with the payment processing company WaveCrest. Affected cards under association with WaveCrest included CryptoPay, Bitwala and TenX. At first the Visa decision appeared to be cryptocurrency related.

    After the noise quieted down it became clear that the move was strictly related to WaveCrest. The WaveCrest termination does not affect other card programs approved by Visa that use fiat funds converted from cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, the damage had been done by the time all facts were known. TenX’s relationship with Visa remained valid.

    Keep An Eye On TenX

    So to restate the question, what’s going on with TenX: quite a bit actually. The real question remains, is the recent price spike the beginning of a major move? Fundamentally, things look promising and in the long run that will create higher value. So this is name on which to do your homework.

    Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

    Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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    4.4 stars on average, based on 88 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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