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Technical Update: Dow Jones Industrial Average

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Technical Overview

  • On April 12, it was discussed how the DJIA continues to falter at its 2018 Resistance (red trendline in Figure 1), and that the index is exhibiting resistance in the 24,500 – 24,650 area (see confluence of green candles with upper shadows ending at the two horizontal yellow lines).
  • On April 13, the index opened higher, moved to a high of 24,646 and subsequently fell sharply, experiencing a 400-point intraday swing (last red arrow). This was yet another retest of the 2018 Resistance and the upper boundary of the 200-point resistance range (upper yellow line).
  • Today, April 16, the index opened just above the 2018 Resistance, pushed higher to an intraday high of 24,675, before pulling back by 100 points by EOD. The index also closed above its intermediate-term support (violet trendline).
  • The short-term support, which carried the index higher since the April 2 low, is rising by roughly 90 points/day – now at 24,270.

Figure 1. Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Chart

Implications

  • The move back above both the 2018 Resistance and the intermediate-term support is deemed constructive. A close above 24,650 will further strengthen the bullish thesis.
  • To the downside, if the index breaks its short-term support, a swift move lower is expected. The extent of the leg down will be dependent on the index’s location in relation to the 2018 Resistance. On one hand, if the index pulls back below the red trendline over the next few sessions, the decline may take the index all the way down to retest the Feb 9 & April 2 lows (23,350). On the other hand, if the index continues to move higher for another 300-400 points and only then breaks the short-term support, the subsequent leg down is expected to terminate at the 2018 Resistance (which will then serve as a support).

Outlook

  • Neutral with a bullish bias while the index is above the 2018 Resistance but below 24,650.
  • A move above 24,650, on a closing basis, will shift the short-term outlook to bullish.
  • If the index breaks the short-term support, outlook will depend on the location of the 2018 Resistance.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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    4.3 stars on average, based on 16 rated postshttp://www.linkedin.com/in/konstantindimov




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    Altcoins

    IOTA Price Analysis: Audi and IOTA Partnership Moving Strong; Price Behaviour Not Reflecting That

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    • IOTA and Audi partnership is said to be progressing forward, according to Audi representative.
    • Price action for IOTA remains tilted to the downside, and a bearish technical set up eyed.

    IOTA (MIOTA) price remains very much depressed, in line with current stubborn market conditions. It continues to trade around the lowest levels seen since July 2017, with a lack of slowdown signs for now. Since the start of the year, the price is down a chunky 95%. The bears have the opportunity to run this further south, as there isn’t much in the way of support seen. This is all despite the strong growth fundamental prospects for IOTA.

    Audi and IOTA Partnership Moving Strong

    Earlier this year, IOTA announced a partnership with Audi Think Tank as the foundation was moving with the development of a permission-less mobility ecosystem. IOTA believes this structure of working is a strong route to understand how automakers are approaching innovation and development. The foundation previously noted that they see it as a great opportunity to incorporate into a new mobility solution, backed by strong suite of skills that Audi associates possess.

    An update hit the wires this week, suggesting the Audi and IOTA partnership is progressing forward. The venture development manager at Audi Denkwerkstatt Berlin, Malte Schönfeld, provided some commentary via his LinkedIn account:

    “What an awesome experience! The last five months we had a great time at the Audi Denkwerkstatt Berlin. Working in cross functional teams with IOTA on a new project. With the focus on enabling trust for the user in emobility, we pushed a new use case to reality. Stay tuned for further Information.” Matt Schönfeld also sent many thanks to all that are involved with the project, including IOTA founder Dominik Schiener and Alisa Maas, Head of Mobility and Automotive at the IOTA Foundation among others for “putting so much energy & passion into this project.”

    Technical Review – IOT/USD

    IOTA/USD 4-hour chart

    Keeping in mind the decline discussed at the start of this piece, the most recent price behavior remains worrying. As seen via the 4-hour chart view, IOT/USD is moving within a range-block formation. The price is very much within consolidation mode. As a result, it remains at risk of another extended move to the south. It can also be perceived as a potential bearish pennant formation, which technically is subject to a breakout tot the downside.

    Downside Targets

    IOT/USD weekly chart

    Looking at downside levels of potential support, the next area to note would likely be $0.1750. This is a weekly support seen since July 2017, week of 17th. Should this fail to provide any comfort, the next level is eyed at $0.1425, the weekly support for week of 10th July 2017. These moves would be similar to other cryptocurrencies in terms of finding that bottom area. For now, all remains tilted in favor of the market bears.

    Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

    Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

    Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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    4.5 stars on average, based on 84 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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    Analysis

    Crypto Update: Bear Market Lows in Jeopardy After Latest Failed Bounce

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    The cryptocurrency segment switched directions yet again, as, after a weak bounce on Wednesday, the major coins are headed back towards their recent bear market lows today. While the losses are not significant, for now, given the bearish long-term picture and the vicinity of the lows, another leg lower in the downtrend could soon begin, despite the deeply oversold long-term momentum readings.

    The majors are all in the red amid the broad selloff and only a few of the battered altcoins are showing some relative strength in the face of the apparent selling pressure. The total value of the market is back below $110 billion, and a dip below the $100 billion mark is possible as soon as the coming days, with Bitcoin being among the weakest top coins in the past few days.

    Volatility has been steadily decreasing ever since last week’s breakdown, but we expect trading activity to pick up somewhat ahead of the weekend, and traders should remain cautious here given the still broadly negative technicals.

    BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    Bitcoin is trading just above its recent lows despite yesterday’s rally attempt, and the coin is showing relative weakness hinting on an imminent test of the lows. That said, with the long-term momentum readings clearly being oversold, we could still be in for a larger scale bounce in the coming weeks, but traders should wait for signs of short-term strength before entering new positions.

    Our trend model remains on sell signals on both time-frames, with strong resistance levels zones ahead near $3600 and between $4000 and $4050, and with key long-term support found near the $3000 level.

    ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    Ethereum is still stuck below the key $95-$100 zone as yesterday’s bounce faded but the coin is trading above its bear market low, performing in line with Bitcoin and the majority of the segment. ETH is still in short- and long-term downtrends, and our trend model is on sell signals on both time-frames as well, despite eh oversold long-term picture.

    Odds still favor a move towards the next key support zone between $73 and $75, and traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here, with further strong resistance zones ahead near $120 and $130.

    Altcoins Drift Lower Across the Board

    IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    We are still not seeing signs of meaningful relative strength even among the smaller altcoins, as although some of the most oversold currencies are, in fact, holding up well above their recent lows. IOTA is still a prime example of the long-term weakness, as it got stuck below the resistance zone surrounding the $0.24 price level despite the recent bounce attempts, while also remaining in a clear broader downtrend. For now, the prior low just above $0.20 is safe, but new lows are still likely in the coming weeks.

    XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    Ripple has been trading with very low volatility in the last couple of days, hovering around the $0.30 level. The coin failed to show relative strength amid the bounce attempts, and break below last week’s lows and a test of the bear market low near $0.26 still seems likely, with the sell signals being in place in our trend model on both time-frames.  XRP faces strong resistance near $0.32, $0.3550, and $0.3750, while primary support is found at $0.28

    Featured image from Shutterstock

    Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

    Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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    4.7 stars on average, based on 415 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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    Binance Coin Price Analysis: BNB Still in Trouble Despite Recent Strong Fundamental Prospects

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    • BNB/USDT moving within an ascending channel formation, subject to a breakout to the downside.
    • There is much anticipation ahead of Binance’s DEX launch, expected in early 2019.

    Binance Coin (BNB) has made a decent recovery since being slammed in November and into the early part of December. The price had initially dropped a whopping 58%, before then being able to stabilize most recently on 7th December. Since, BNB has jumped as much as 20% to the upside, moving within an ascending channel formation. However, despite the gains of late, a similar bounce was initially seen on 25th November to 5th December, before another dump. BNB/USDT had tanked a chunky 35%, after this brief period of stabilization.

    Strong Fundamental News Flow

    The world’s largest exchange by traded volume will some be launching their own decentralized exchange (DEX), expected for early 2019. There is much excitement and buzz across the social media space for this to go live. The development team have already noted that their BNB will be moving from its ERC-20 token status, which is currently on the Ethereum blockchain. As a result, this will be transferred to their own proprietary blockchain, which is set to be called Binance Chain.

    In terms of a decentralized exchange, this technology can facilitate a new type of pair matching, allowing users to be able to place orders in addition to trading cryptocurrencies. This can be done without the need of an intermediary institution, managing the ledger or even controlling the user’s funds.

    Elsewhere, Binance recently announced that they will be adding a new feature for the benefit and to attract more institutional investors. They will have the facility to create sub-accounts on the Binance exchange. Finally, the company have also exercised further use of their token, BNB, as these can now be used via Tripio to secure bookings.

    Technical Review – BNB

    BNB/USDT 4-hour chart

    Price action over the past six sessions now is moving within an ascending channel formation. This comes after the decent bounce from the low on 7th December, having dropped to a low of $4.1200. At the time BNB/USDT was very much oversold, dropping to 26 via the RSI on the 4-hour time frame. Technically, such moves are subject to a potential breakout to the downside.

    Support Levels

    BNB/USDT weekly chart

    Near-term support should be noted at $4.8000, which is the lower part of the observed ascending channel. Further south, eyes would be on the 7th December low at $4.1200. BNB/USDT is already trading around the lower levels seen since December 2017. Lastly, should the above-mentioned be breached, then a fall to $3.2500 could be on the cards. This is a weekly support seen for 17th December 2017 week commencing.

    Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

    Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

    Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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    4.5 stars on average, based on 84 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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