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Technical Analysis of Crypto Is Impossible

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With no disrespect to those folks that have successfully practiced the art of technical analysis and are making a bountiful living from it: Bravo.  Trying to figure what to do with a stock like General Electric where there is great uncertain about the business and just after the dividend has been cut, you don’t have much to rely on.  So things like investor sentiment that is the embodiment of  technical analysis can be very useful.  But technical analysis for cryptocurrencies, I beg your pardon.

There are plenty of believers in using the technique on crypto.  When you Google the topic, there are 775,000 stories offered.  We decided to dig into one in particular that will remain anonymous out of respect for having their own point of view.

Old School Techniques Work On Long History

The cornerstone of technical analysis is based on the century old Dow Theory.  The most important premise in the Dow Theory is the assumption of perfect knowledge. “All existing, prior and upcoming details have already been factored into the current price. In other words the existing price reflects fully informed and knowledgeable buyers and sellers.

In the case of General Electric where there are hundreds of analysts, portfolio managers, investment advisors and everyday investors watching CNBC or Bloomberg, this concept of perfect information may be valid.  In a world where well over half of the world still has heard the term blockchain and where it has been estimated that 70% of crypto buyers are pure speculators with little or no knowledge what they own, this is a long way from perfect knowledge.  

Everything Works In Theory

The next key to understand Dow Theory is buying into the notion that there is no such thing as random price movements.  This is where trend analysis is important and technical analysts have their own language.  The important thing is once a trend has begun, it is likely to continue.  This is the principle of inertia that says moving objects will continue until stopped or their direction is changed.  

In the real world, the force that stops or changes direction is never know.  The first month of trading Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME and CBOE is nearing and end.  The amount of open interest (a measure of volume) has turned out to be disappointing.  If there was a clear trend in Bitcoin prices, futures traders would have been big players.  Instead we will have to wait for more time to measure this gauge.  In other words, there is imperfect knowledge.

The real focus of technical analysis is on their  focus on supply and demand. That makes sense in the case of GE where robo traders can analyze supply versus demand in fractions of a nanosecond and react accordingly.  Thus far in the crypto world where supply is generally fixed (within certain limits) and demand is driven both by speculators and application platform demand, this is a meaningless measure.  

One Sided Crypto Markets

Supply and demand have meaning in a two way market where transactions can be processed by the millions every second.  Bitcoin speeds are around 7 per second while fast footed Ethereum is about twice as fast.  This well known shortcoming accentuates volatility.   

Technicians believe that history repeats itself.  True that Terminator II was a repeat of Terminator I.  Beyond that we won’t dispute the general idea that patterns from history can display similarities.  But in order for history to repeat itself, there at least has to be a history to start with.  If 2017 alone were deemed enough history for Bitcoin, the price by the end of this year will have gone up nearly 1200%.

The New Tax Laws Change The Math

If you disagree with the unflattering assessment that is fine.  We aren’t against using technical analysis where it is appropriate.  I used it in the past whenever making stock trading decisions.  But the new tax law ended my interest in trading.

Last year two things happened.  First the IRS declared cryptocurrencies to be securities not hard assets.  Secondly, the new tax bill put an end to 1031 trades and this encourages disciples of cryptocurrencies to be long term investors.   

Before this you could sell a $1 million of Bitcoin with a cost basis of $100,000 for example and buy the exact same amount of Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin or Ripple and not pay a penny to the IRS.  This is no longer possible, sorry.  So forget about the short term swings, the future is not so far off.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. letusallunite

    January 24, 2018 at 6:58 am

    Why the focus on US investors? There is a whole world beyond the US.

  2. Mister.Ticot

    January 24, 2018 at 6:39 pm

    While it’s true that Bitcoin network handle up to 7 transaction/second, it seems pretty obvious that a lot more than that happens on exchanges without any limitation.

  3. jksmith815

    January 26, 2018 at 1:54 am

    LOL… isn’t the majority of the content in Hacked.com some kind of technical analysis?

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Bitcoin

Morgan Chase’s JPM Coin: A Banker’s Intranet, or the First Major Attack on Bitcoin?

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JP Morgan Chase unveiled plans for its JPM Coin on Thursday, sending the cryptocurrency universe into equal fits of both rancour and rapture.

While some see institutional adoption of cryptocurrency as the most bullish news of 2019, many are not quite sold on the concept; and some are already fearing the emergence of a ‘Ripple Killer’ or even a ‘Bitcoin Killer’.

As ever, the truth is probably more subtle, and more interesting than the sensational headlines suggest.

JPM Coin ‘Would Have Pumped BTC’ In Bull Market

At the most extreme end of the enthusiasm spectrum we have the assertion by one ‘crypto influencer’ on crypto-twitter that JPM Coin would have have positive effects on Bitcoin in a bull market scenario.

“This JP Morgan news would have pumped $BTC $1000+ in a bull market…”

Of course, a $1,000 increase when BTC’s priced at $20,000 is very different from when BTC’s priced at $3,000. One would equal a 5% increase, and the other a 33.3% increase – but let’s not deprive influencers of their fun and games.

One thing that influencers are good for is that the following they attract (43k in this case) can be put to good use. The poll below, taken from a relatively large sample size, shows that opinion is split on what JPM means for the broader crypto market.

Poll results showing response to JPM Coin.

But let’s bear in mind that all that really happened was a new stablecoin was announced. The concept of it having a bullish or bearish effect on the cryptocurrency sphere is a loose one.

Bitcoin and Ripple Killer?

Any notion of JPM Coin being a Bitcoin killer was put to bed pretty quickly in this takedown by CCN’s P.H. Madore: Why JP Morgan’s ‘Bitcoin Killer’ Isn’t Even a Real Cryptocurrency – but that didn’t stop panic from spreading initially.

Where panic might be more readily directed however is in the vicinity of Ripple and XRP. Not to underplay some of Ripple’s payment solutions – which have already been massively adopted – but if major institutions now have the choice of doing business with JP Morgan Chase, or the often controversial, and relatively unknown Ripple Labs, which one are they more likely to choose?

A Banker’s Intranet?

Cypherpunk and maintenance man for one of the internet’s prime hubs of blockchain info, Jameson Lopp compared JP Morgan Chase’s stablecoin to private bankers intranets of the early 90s. He said:

“Banker stablecoins are a step forward, just as banker intranets were in the 1990s. Adoption of this technology will make the transition smoother when they are forced to capitulate and adopt the Internet of Money.”

This is probably a fairer assessment of the situation, and one that gives room for nuance – although the nuance is shattered by the cock-sure assertion that Bitcoin will become the internet of money.

Speaking of bankers intranets – one can imagine internet diehards complaining in the early 90s that the bankers were taking over their thing – their apparatus for freedom, from censorship and surveillance by corporations and the state – and that soon the internet would be taken over by the very people they had hoped to escape.

But that didn’t happen… did it?

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 144 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Altcoins

Solve.Care Has Potential to Transform the Field of Healthcare Administration

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The last few years have been a crazy ride in the crypto markets.  We’ve seen both the buying frenzy and the panic selling.  Although the industry has a lot of potential, it is undoubtedly true that many projects will fizzle out during the next 12-24 months.  Traders need to carefully analyze projects that have the best chance for real world adoption.  Part of the analysis certainly needs to center around projected industry growth.  One of the areas in desperate need of transformation is healthcare administration and Solve.Care may have just the solution.

Problems with Traditional Healthcare

Healthcare administration around the world has become plagued by inefficiencies and soaring costs.  Global spending on health exceeds $8 trillion annually and is expected to increase to $18 trillion worldwide by 2040.  In the U.S. alone, up to $1 trillion is wasted through administrative costs, over-utilization, and fraud.  Much of this waste is due to an obsolete and cumbersome healthcare system.  These issues have placed a massive strain on patients, doctors, and system administrators for far too long.

For doctors, one of their major complaints is the amount of time spent completing paperwork and dealing with insurance companies.  For patients, one of the major complaints is lack of face time with their primary care physicians.

Change is definitely needed and that’s where Solve.Care comes into the picture.

What is Solve.Care

Solve.Care is a transformative healthcare administrative platform designed for use by patients, employers, doctors, healthcare groups, and insurance businesses.  This platform is the first to use blockchain technology as the underlying distributed ledger for all care events between patient, doctor, pharmacy, laboratory, insurer, and other parties.

Patients are encouraged to manage their healthcare decisions.  Employers can use the platform to administer benefits, reduce costs, and reward their employees.  Doctors and hospitals can issue prescriptions, manage appointments, and coordinate with a specialist.

The platform has the potential to save billions of dollars in annual costs by better coordinating all the normal healthcare administrative operations and thereby eliminating all the inefficiencies.

Prior Accomplishments

Solve.Care completed it’s token sale in May 2018 and has since had its token, SOLVE, listed on Bittrex and KuCoin.  The company sold 350 million tokens with a 100% subscription rate.  That certainly speaks to the demand of both the token to use Care.Wallet and the platform’s potential for real world adoption.

The company had made it a priority to hire some of the best talent in the world.  More than 100 people are currently working in the company with approximately 70 of them being engineers.  The engineers are making rapid progress as the platform is being continually expanded and improved.

Whenever new technology attempts to disrupt an industry hanging on to outdated software and practices, it is imperative that startup companies have the right leadership.  Fortunately, Solve.Care appears to have someone very capable at the top.  The company is led by Pradeep Goel, who has been in the CEO, COO, CIO and CTO roles at various technology companies over the past 26 years.  Pradeep has a wealth of knowledge from both the private and public sectors, most notably from his time designing and building solutions for public programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, and SNAP.  Pradeep has also been named in the Goldman Sachs list of the top 100 entrepreneurs in the world.

The company has a growing pipeline with more than 25 clients and partnerships.  Perhaps the most impressive of which was the recent deal struck with Arizona Care Network.

Arizona Care Network Partnership

Solve.Care has a proven track record of developing blockchain-based healthcare solutions and introducing them to the U.S. healthcare market.

In February 2018, Solve.Care announced a multi-year contract for its decentralized healthcare administration platform with Arizona Care Network (ACN), one of the largest accountable care organizations in the United States.  ACN manages value-based care contracts for its network of more than 5,500 physicians covering more than 250,000 members.

David Hanekom, CEO of Arizona Care Network, had this to say about the partnership:

“ACN is focused on innovation in the healthcare industry and seeks to be the leading technology-enabled ACO in the U.S.  This is why we chose to partner with Solve.Care, a true innovator in the healthcare administration and payments sector.  Solve.Care brings a lot to the table in terms of their ability to simplify and decentralize complex processes related to value-based care delivery and payments.  We couldn’t be more excited as a result of this partnership and look forward to launching the platform with our providers and members.”

Since that announcement, Solve.Care has continued to innovate with the launch of Care.Wallet for Physician and Care.Wallet for Family.

Care.Wallet for Physician Development

Care.Wallet for Physician, launched in October 2018, allows the providers of the Network to track the successes and overall score, while receiving corresponding rewards according to the Provider Rewards Program.  These value-based payments inside the network of 5,500 physicians are happening with the healthcare digital currency, Care.Coin.  It is important to note that Solve.Care is the first company to implement digital currency and blockchain technology for value-based payments in the U.S. healthcare industry.

Conclusion

Of all the industries, I can’t think of any that needs a complete overhaul more than health administration and care coordination.  With soaring costs and an aging population that will need quick and easy access to care in the coming years, this is an area that could see a lot of innovation in the near future.  Solve.Care is already doing its part to transform the industry, and will no doubt reap the rewards for its innovative spirit.

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Bitcoin

Gold Rush 2.0: Who’s Selling Shovels to the Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Pioneers?

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There’s an old saying that goes something like: “During a gold rush, sell shovels.”

At the height of the California gold rush, the most profitable venture (on average) was not mining for gold itself, but selling the tools that facilitated the mining of gold.

The legacy of this fact is still present even today – your Levi jeans are a product of Bavarian immigrant Levi Strauss, whose business boomed when he began manufacturing tough, durable trousers specifically for gold miners.

While adventurers took to the hills in search of their fortunes, the more conservative personalities found a way to make money from the process before a pick-axe even struck the soil.

So who are the ‘shovel sellers’ in the cryptocurrency space?

Exchanges

By the second quarter of 2018, Binance had already become more profitable than Germany’s Deutsche Bank. That was less than a year after launch, and the exchange’s meteoric rise was such that the likes of Forbes and Business Insider began writing about the likelihood of $1 billion yearly profits being recorded by CZ and the gang in 2018

By the end of the year those profits ended up being closer to half a billion, and Binance’s BNB utility token was the only major altcoin to increase in value from 2018 to 2019.

Although exchanges aren’t in the business of selling physical tools essential to cryptocurrency mining or usage, they do occupy a gatekeeper role similar to local goldsmiths in the old west. Yes, gold miners could just keep their bounty to themselves and use it (with some difficulty) as its own self-contained currency. But if they wanted to exchange it for an equivalent value of fiat currency, then they’d have to go through a confirmation and notarization process – one which would require some form of KYC, and would ultimately demand a percentage fee.

With the presence of authority-less services like Local Bitcoin, and a recent increase in the number of decentralized exchanges, it may seem surprising that one of the most profitable gigs in the cryptocurrency space happens to be that of a centralized exchange.

However, this phenomena makes a little more sense when viewed through the lens of human nature: Read: 5 Things Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Investors Should Beware of in 2019.

Mining Tools

Perhaps the most obvious example of ‘selling shovels’ to the crypto space comes from the mining hardware industry.

Bitmain Technologies Ltd has already earned its co-founder and CEO, Micree Zhan, an estimated $4 billion in profit – all from selling mining equipment to would-be cryptocurrency prospectors.

Towards the end of last year Bitmain announced its intention to undergo an initial public offering (IPO) – predicted to be worth an estimated $18 billion if it goes ahead. There are some obstacles to overcome before that can happen, such as gaining the approval of Hong Kong’s financial regulators.

But with that kind of money flying around, there’s a good chance Bitmain could become the modern day Levi. Even if crypto mining fades out due to concepts like Proof-of-Stake, we’d most likely see Bitmain continue to sell shovels of some kind, even if it were just general computing technology.

Bitmain’s estimated worth if the IPO goes ahead will eclipse the market capitalizations of Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), EOS (EOS) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) combined – possibly the best example of ‘selling shovels’ since the gold rush itself?

Storage

Cryptocurrency can be stored safely on its native blockchain without too much trouble. However, if you want to gain access to your funds in order to spend it, divide it, or move it from place to place, then you’re going to need a wallet service of some kind.

Many free software wallets exist for this purpose, however not all of them can be trusted. The most secure way to store cryptocurrency is with a hardware wallet.

The popularity of the secure storage service offered by Trezor is such that it had become a multi-million dollar industry by as early as 2017. That’s the same year the company had to issue an apology to its customers after it ran out of stock due to high demand, when a spike in the value of BTC saw a sudden influx of Trezor orders:

“With much regret, Satoshi Labs would like to inform you that due to the exceedingly high and unanticipated demand associated with the increase in bitcoin value, our stock at TREZOR Shop has been depleted. We would like to sincerely apologize for this inadequate foresight related to the development of bitcoin value. Production plans have been fixed and this situation should not occur in the future again.”

Ledger hardware wallets have proven just as popular in recent years, or even more so considering their compatibility with a higher number of cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile numerous would-be usurpers to the Ledger/Trezor dominance have also attempted to make their presence felt, with varying degrees of success.

Conclusion

In terms of pure profit, wouldn’t it be accurate to say that the people involved in the peripheral industries surrounding cryptocurrency have found more success than those involved in the main industry itself?

This also raises the question of just what the main industry is – is it mining? Is it trading? Is it purely the pursuit of profit? Or does all of this amount to no more than the setting of foundations for the true crypto use-case – i.e. it’s role as a global transactional currency?

Note that I didn’t mention the phenomena of ‘blockchain influencers’ and self-professed ‘experts’ – another booming industry that seeks to siphon off value from the main expedition; and one that also had its equivalency during the gold rush era.

When the global cryptocurrency market struck its all-time high on January 7th, 2018, its $835 billion valuation was worth 11% of the total value of all the gold ever mined (according to current gold prices).

If the value of cryptocurrencies continue to increase as the global supply available from mining continues to decrease (as predicted), then the gold rush isn’t anywhere close to being over – and it may be worth figuring out how to sell a few shovels of your own.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 144 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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