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Technical Analysis: A Durable Low Might be in as Bitcoin Hits $7650

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Cryptocurrencies got slaughtered in the first two days of February, with this morning’s sell-off closely resembling a wash-out liquidation event. While a confirmed trend change is far away, given the technical damage that the coins suffered, today’s panic low could be a significant bottom or the start of a more complex bottoming process.

With all that in mind, short-term trades should still expect wild swings and high volatility, but long-term investors could add to their holdings in the already oversold coins on the short-term sell-offs.

Bitcoin turned higher during today’s bounce almost perfectly form the $7650 level that we have been monitoring as a possible target, but as the downtrend is still intact, another test of that level or a spike below it is not out of the question.

That said, the long-term picture is now clearly oversold, and the short-term setup suggests a durable bounce too. Resistance is ahead at between $9000 and $9200, and at $10,000, while primary support below the lows is in the $6750-$7000 zone.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple plunged all the way to the $0.68 support during the crash, and now it is hovering around the prior low near $0.85. The coin is oversold from both short- and long-term perspectives, and we expect a durable rally in the coin soon, with resistance levels ahead at $1, $1.25, and $1.5. Below $0.68, the only significant support is found at $0.42.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum only re-tested the previous low today, hitting a marginal new low below it, bringing the long-term momentum indicators close to neutral territory. That said, we expect the correction to continue in the coin, as it is in an earlier phase of its cycle than the rest of the market. Primary support is just below the current price level at $850, while further support levels are found at $625 and $575, with resistance ahead at $1000.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin tested the $100 level during the crash as we speculated, after plunging below the $125 level in early trading. The long-term picture is now oversold, and the final low might be in. Long-term investors could still add to their holdings on the short-term sell-offs, and aggressive traders could also open speculative positions near the main support levels, with resistance ahead at $140 and between $170 and $180.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash spiked below the $500 support level and the long-term rising trendline today, but it recovered quickly together with the broader market, and the low might have marked the end of the correction. That said, a longer bottoming process could be ahead, and a test of the low is still possible. Resistance is ahead between $600 and $650 and around the $825 level.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic hit the primary support level below the prior all-time high near $18 during the crash before recovering to the $23 level. The coin likely hit a durable bottom today, but the downtrend is still clearly intact, and traders should wait for a trend change before entering full positions here, while investors could add to their holdings.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero tested the $200 level as we expected, and hit a low near $190 during the crash, and bounced back to the prior low at $240 following the bottom. While the cycle low might already be in, a longer bottoming process could be ahead, with key resistance ahead at $280, $300, and $330 and further support near $175.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is still in a similar position as Ethereum, being in an earlier phase of its correction, although the coin did breach the $100 level already as we expected. Despite the already deep correction we expect the move to continue, and traders and investors should stay away from entering new positions, with further support levels found at $80, $64, and $56, and key resistance ahead just above $150.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA turned almost precisely at the $1.5 level that we have been pointing out for weeks, and the coin might hit the final bottom of the cycle today. While a longer bottoming process is possible, long-term investors could add to their positions on the short-term sell-offs, as the currency is now oversold from an investment standpoint. Support below $1.5 is at $1.1, while resistance is ahead near $1.9, $2.20, and $2.35.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 378 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Ripple Price Analysis: XRP/USD Subject to Pullback Before Another Surge; More Partners Added to xRapid and RippleNet

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  • Ripple continue to add new partnerships for both xRapid and RippleNet.
  • XRP/USD subject to a near-term pullback, ahead of any firm committed upside move.

Ripple adds Viamericas to xRapid Solution

The Ripple foundation have been extremely busy, since the official launch of xRapid earlier in the month. Viamericas, who are a “licensed money transmitter offering international money transfer.” They cover over 76,000 locations in 29 countries. Viamericas is the latest to be added to Ripple’s xRapid.

Last month, Ripple held a two-day the Swell Conference. This is where Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse unveiled xRapid. Furthermore, at the time he covered that Ripple has partnered xRapid with three firms already, Cuallix, Mercury FX, and Catalyst.

UK E-Money Firm Moneynetint Joins RippleNet

Moneynetint are the latest company to join RippleNet, after recently completing integration. The business is a UK e-money institution. They facilitate in cross-border money transfers and currency exchange for corporate and private clients globally. As a result, The CEO of Moneynetint Yishay Trif, CEO commented, “The cooperation signed with Ripple is part of the company’s strategic move to advance into innovative areas of the payments industry. To become a groundbreaking institution in the field”.

Furthermore, direct commentary from Ripple, their director of account management. Nadeem Ladki, director, added, “by leveraging Ripple’s blockchain technology, Moneynetint will now be able to simplify and reduce the FX conversion rates for their customers, Increase the speed of settlement and offer services to new markets, that would otherwise have been too difficult or too costly to reach in the past.”

Technical Review – 4-hour Chart

XRPUSD 4-hour chart

XRP/USD has been attempting a break-down of a stubborn supply area observed from $0.4800-0.5000 region. The price for now continues to face rejections. After going through a period of high volatility, XRP/USD managed to find stability. This resulted in it grinding higher within a small ascending wedge pattern, which consequently has seen a breach. Even more, looking at playing out to the textbook with a breakout south.

The below demand area will be in focus, seen within the $0.4500-0.4350 territory. If near-term downside momentum is maintains its current course, the broken descending channel will be eyed. Finally, this support could likely be seen at $0.3900, just on top of the channel.

Technical Review – Daily Chart

XRP/USD daily chart

Looking for the daily view, the significance of the mentioned above supply and below demand areas are evident. Between the period of July – August, the price was swinging between these zones. The range was narrowing. This saw an eventual breakout south from the demand area, $0.4500-0.4350. As a result, XRP/USD went on to drop almost 80% down to a low of around $0.2445, on the 14th August.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 31 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Edge Lower in Quiet Trading

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The cryptocurrency segment continued to trade without momentum in the past 24 hours, as although some of the small-cap coins experienced heavy trading the top currencies are virtually unchanged. The technical setup is also little changed, with only Stellar getting closer making progress since the Monday market-wide spike. Ripple, which was also among the more active coins couldn’t maintain its momentum, while Bitcoin and Ethereum got stuck in very narrow short-term ranges.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin continues to trade between the $6275 and $6500 levels, as another very narrow trading range developed following the Tether-indices surge. The most valuable coin is still well below the previously dominant broad triangle pattern after last week’s breakdown, and the short-term sell signal remains in place in our trend model.

While the long-term setup is neutral, traders should still not enter positions here, with further resistance levels ahead at $6750 near $7000, and with support levels also found near $6000, $5850, and between $5000 and $5100.

Stellar/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar drifted above the key support zone that surrounds the $0.24 price level which also marked the top of the Monday rally. Should the coin hold above that level, a new short-term uptrend would be established even as the broader declining trendline is just ahead, and traders could enter small positions in anticipation of a break-out. That said, given the bearish segment-wide pressures, these setups are still to be treated cautiously, as no leadership has been established.

Top Coins in Deadlock as Long-Term Setup Still Bearish

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is still holding on above the key $0.42-$0.46 zone, but it still failed to show meaningful follow-through after the move out of the triangle consolidation pattern, and a new short-term uptrend is still not confirmed, so traders should still not enter positions here.  XRP faces strong resistance levels near $0.51, $0.54, and $0.57, while further support levels are found at $0.375 and near $0.35.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is trading in a similarly narrow trading range as Bitcoin, also on a short-term sell signal, with the focus being on the $200 support level. Ethereum’s long-term outlook is still clearly negative, with the broader declining trend being intact, and a move towards the bear market low remains likely in the coming weeks.

Traders and investors should stay away from the coin, despite Monday’ spike, as we expect the downtrend to resume soon. Strong resistance levels ahead at $235 and $260, while support is found at $180, $170, and $160.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin also failed to make progress since Monday and a move below the $51 support level is very likely in the coming week. Below that support is found near $51 and the bear market low at $47, while the major zone of interest is near the $44 price level.

The weakness of LTC is a bearish sign for the whole segment, and traders should still not enter positions here, with strong resistance levels ahead near $56, $59, and $64.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Hawkish Fed Lifts Yields, Dollar as Stock-Correction Continues

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US stock markets had a choppy and mixed session, and the major indices closed the day virtually unchanged, despite the early losses and the negative news flow. The US housing market disappointed again, the EU-Italy debate over the country’s budget continued, the US-Chinese relations further deteriorated, and the Fed also provided a negative catalyst towards the end of the day.

Dow 30 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Investors were eagerly waiting for the meeting minute form the Fed’s latest meeting, but those expecting a dovish surprise were let down. The transcript contained more hints to tighter-than-expected monetary policies in the coming months and years, but still after an initial dip stocks rebounded to pre-announcement levels.

US 2-Year Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While especially shorter-dated yields rallied after the release, we would add that although there were voices that the Fed should exceed the “neutral” interest rate to cool the economy in the future, those voices will likely be muted by any major correction in financial markets or even a moderate slowdown in the economy.

Russell 2000, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stocks weathered the rise in yields so far, but after-hours, futures markets are drifting lower, and should yields resume their recent swift advance, another wave of selling could hit risk assets. With a lot of stocks and benchmarks still clearly in oversold territory concerning the short-term momentum indicators, the choppy correction could also continue, but we remain defensive towards global stocks, and we expect the risk-off period to continue in the coming weeks.

Dollar Extends Early Gains as WTI Crude Dips Below $70

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the Dollar was already up in early trading against most of its major peers, it got a strong boost from the meeting minutes, with the Dollar Index climbing above the key support/resistance level near 95.50, establishing a swing low.

Barring a quick reversal, the Greenback headed for another important leg higher, and all eyes will be on the 1.15 level in the EUR/USD pair, as an extended move below that could open up the way for a strong momentum move in the USD. On a positive note, the most vulnerable emerging market currencies continue to perform well, in contrast with equities in the segment, and that could give some stability to risk-on currencies in the face of the broadly negative technicals

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities mostly finished the day with losses amid the rally in the Dollar, but while gold still only gave back a small part of its recent gains, oil plunged to a new almost one-month low, at least as measured by the WTI contract.

The Brent contract continues to outperform despite the easing of the US-Saudi tensions, but overall the risk-off shift in global markets is clearly hurting oil.  Copper is still stuck in a volatility compression pattern, but given the lengthy consolidation, a significant move is expected in the coming days by the industrial metal.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 378 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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