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Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Locked in Tight Range as Altcoins Drift Lower

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The short-term picture in the cryptocurrency segment remains dominantly bearish, with still no majors being on a buy signal according to our trend model. Volatility declined substantially in recent days, and that could still be a sign of an ongoing bottoming process, but a healthy rally would need clear leadership with meaningful bullish momentum, and none of those is present currently as most of last week’s leaders pulled back.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

That said, Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins, holding up above a key support zone near $7650, while trading in a narrow range with low volume and volatility. The coin is still on a neutral short-term signal, and before a rally above primary resistance near $8400, traders shouldn’t open new positions, while the long-term setup is still favorable. The coin is facing further resistance between $9000 and $9200, while support is found below $7650 near $7000 and $6750.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is still in a clear short-term downtrend, trading right at the recent 4-month low, near the $450 price level. While investors could still add to their holdings, given the oversold long-term picture, traders should stay out of the market, for now.  The second largest coin is facing strong resistance at $500, $575, $625, $640, and between $740 and $780, with primary support found at $400.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been under pressure in recent days, losing its short-term relative strength, but still trading well above the February lows. The coin is right at the lower boundary of the declining trend channel, with strong support just below at $125. With the long-term picture still being bullish, investors could still add to their holdings, but the currency is on a short-term sell signal.  Resistance is ahead at $140, $150 and in the key $170-$180 while further support is at $100.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is under strong selling pressure despite the weekend strength, and the coin is now trading slightly below the $360 support as well, although the decline is lacking momentum, and last week’s lows are well below the current price level. The currency is on a short-term sell signal, and a recovery above the next resistance level at $375 would be needed at least for an upgrade, with support found near $315 and $300.

Ripple

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple continues to trade in a strong downtrend, although the $0.58 level, which is marking the February low, is holding for now. The coin is still on a short-term sell signal, and a drop below last week’s low near $0.54 would warn of a test of the prior all-time high at $0.42. The coin faces strong resistance at $0.68, $0.85, and $1, with a short-term level found at $0.73.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic is hovering around the $16 level, still above both last week’s low and the February minimum. That said, the coin is clearly in a short-term downtrend and on a sell signal for traders, however investors could still accumulate the coin here, as ETC is oversold from a long-term perspective. Support levels are found at $14.50 and $13.50 while further resistance is near $18, $20, and $23.

Monero

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is the closest to a short-term buy signal among the majors, as it recovered up to the primary resistance at $200 today, but for now, the key level held back the coin. As we expect the currency to retain its recent leadership, investors could still add to their holdings, but only aggressive traders should open new positions here.  Strong resistance levels ahead, near $240 and $280, while key support is found at $175 and $150.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO settled down near $0.57 after plunging below the $64 level, as the coin lost its relative strength after a very brief period. The currency is slightly above last week’s low, but, together with its closest peer Ethereum, it remains among the weakest coins from a short-term perspective, while long-term investors could add to their holdings. Strong support is at $50, while further resistance is ahead at $80, $100, and between $120 and $130.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA failed to build on its leadership during last week’s rally and it’s still trading near the $1.20 support level, below the broad declining trendline that is currently found near $1.35. The coin is neutral short-term, while long-term investors could still accumulate IOTA here. Resistance above that is at $1.5 and $1.9, while support is found at $1.1 and $1.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Pre-Market: Trade War Optimism Sparks Another Bounce in Stocks

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Global stocks are markedly higher today before the US open, Donald Trump’s quite aggressive negotiating seem to be paying off, at least with regards to China, as in the wake of the pronounced weakness in Chinese assets, and the notable slowdown in the economy, the country wants to reopen the talks with the US.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Shanghai Composite hit a new bear market low overnight before recovering above support into the close, and the Dollar’s rally also ran into resistance, thanks to the Yuan’s bounce of its fresh 13-month low. Emerging market assets are also somewhat higher today, with the help of the Turkish Lira’s continued bounce, but the segment is still deeply wounded technically, and more pain is almost inevitably ahead, as the negative trends still stand.

 

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Walmart’s great earnings report also fueled the pre-market rally in US futures, as the retail segment in the largest economy still seems to be doing just fine, despite the global woes. The major US indices are after an orderly looking correction, in stark contrast with their European and Asian peers, which are stuck in broader downtrends or even full-blown bear markets.

Nasdaq, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Yesterday’s tech selloff, which was triggered by the weak report of Chinese giant Tencent has almost been erased after the better than expected numbers of Cisco restored confidence in the market-leading segment. Nvidia (NVDA) will also report after the market close, and as the earnings season is drawing to a close, we can conclude that corporate profits had a blowout quarter in the US, even as cracks in the global economy appeared.

Momentum is still clearly on the side of the FAANGS and the whole US tech sector even after discounting Facebook’s recent plunge, but should the tightening cycle of the Fed continue to drain liquidity from financial markets and should the rising trend in rates persist, we expect valuations to suddenly matter soon.

Dollar Pulls Back

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The possible resumption of the US-Chinese trade talks sparked a, so far, weak correction, which also due from a technical standpoint, with the EUR/USD pair finding support near $1.13, and with the broader Dollar Index running into resistance near the 97 level. The rally in the reserve currency is no danger by any means, as the break-out is clearly intact, but a deeper pullback would help risk-assets in the coming days.

WTI Crude oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are slightly higher thanks to the relief rally in emerging markets and the dip in the Dollar, but the previously stronger crude oil is just holding up above the $65 support, while gold is clearly below $1200, and copper couldn’t get back anywhere near yesterday’s break-down level close to $2.70.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Stabilizes but Bulls Not Out of the Woods

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The cryptocurrency segment looks much better than any time in the last 10 days, as the major coins managed to hold up above the liquidation lows hit on Tuesday. While the bounce stabilized the market, there is still substantial fragility following the steep selloff, and until further bullish moves, traders shouldn’t enter full positions.

That said, finally, there are signs of relative strength among the top coins as correlations are slightly lower, and some of the bearish leaders managed to recapture key resistance levels. Litecoin is trading right at the crucial $56 level, while Monero is above the $90 level, and as we noted before the exhaustion of their downtrend is a positive sign or the whole segment.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bounce and the following stability triggered a few upgrades in our trend model after spending almost 1 month in the sell zone, but there are still no majors on a buy signal as the segment-wide downtrend remains intact. Bitcoin remains the strongest coin from a technical perspective, while Ethereum and Ripple, which showed weakness for weeks, are also in better shape, even as they face very strong resistance levels.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum managed to hold up above the $275-$280 level during the overnight pullback, and now it faces the $300 resistance level again, trying to build on the recent rally. While the short-term downtrend is intact, and the oversold longer-term momentum readings could fuel a rally in the coming weeks, but now the coin is in a structural bear market after the break below $400.

The coin is now neutral from a short-term standpoint, but a move below $275 would point to another test of the lows. Further resistance is ahead at $3335 and $360, while strong long-term support is at $260.

Bitcoin Still Below $6500 as XRP Nears $0.30

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Not much has changed for Bitcoin in recent days, but relatively speaking the largest coin showed significant strength. That said, until BTC doesn’t show bullish momentum, traders still shouldn’t enter positions, as the structurally important $5850 level is still not far below the current price level. A move above $6500 would trigger a short-term buy signal, but further strong resistance levels are ahead at $6750 and $7000, while support is still found at $6275 and $6000.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple and Ethereum are in very similar technical setups, and XRP is also facing strong resistance at $0.30 after finding support overnight near $0.275. After the panicky spike below $0.26, the odds of a durable increased, and should the coin stay above the overnight lows, the coin could avoid another short-term sell signal. While traders should still stay away from entering full positions here, a bottoming process might already be underway.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Ethereum Takes Baby Steps to Recovery as Global Markets Surge 10%

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Following the first serious rebound from the last week’s carnage the global market gained 10% overnight, pushing back through the $200 billion barrier after a brief dip to $190 billion yesterday.

Ethereum Price Recovery

The rebound was not distributed equally, with many of the altcoins which had previously lost the most now benefiting in turn. Ethereum made a strong push in the last twenty-fours as it climbed from a near year-long low of $254.56 up to the current range in the $280’s, where it sits at the time of writing.

The 11% gains for the day sound good, but amount to relatively little in dollar value considering how much the coin lost in recent weeks. At one point during the night ETH climbed to a unit price of $290 – but that’s as far as it could go during this particular twenty-four stretch.

The sudden surge over the last twenty-four hours wasn’t enough to take Ethereum to the £300 mark, although that could be achieved following another 5% growth. The current $284 price per ETH is still one of the lowest witnessed in the last 11 months, so there’s still plenty of scope for investors to jump on board.

Predictably, USDT trades are the most popular today, making up close to 20% of the daily total as a significant portion of ETH becomes un-tethered. Wash-trades, or transaction mining on multiple exchanges once again comes close to equalling the actual recorded daily volume of $1.8 billion.

Global Surge Re-Rearranges Altcoins

While nothing could be termed normal in the crypto world, several coins have returned to their former market cap positions from before the dip. EOS is back in 5th place after temporarily being ousted by Stellar, and Cardano has returned to 8th spot after briefly giving up its place to Tether.

TRON and IOTA are still lingering outside the top ten, with Monero holding strong in the 10th spot previously occupied by TRON, and then IOTA in recent times.

Correlation and Causation

You’ve probably seen the Google Trend charts which show an alignment between ‘cryptocurrency’ Google searches, and the total cryptocurrency market cap. Right now the search volume is as low as it has been since before the surge of 2017 – but that isn’t necessarily an indicator of a lack of interest. It just means that people aren’t typing the word ‘cryptocurrency’ (or Bitcoin, which has an immensely larger search volume) into Google any more.

It says nothing about the number of people checking CoinMarketCap every day, and it doesn’t let you know how many people have suddenly become interested again after seeing prices drop to such long-time lows.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 38 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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