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Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Hits First Correction Target as Volatility Reigns Supreme

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The violent correction that created a full-on panic in the cryptocurrency segment continues to unfold in a rather orderly way from a technical standpoint, reflecting the extreme nature of the preceding rally. That said, the percentage losses in some of the coins are huge, and the collapse of Bitconnect accelerated the process, spreading uncertainty among investors, and sentiment quickly got bleak.

Bitcoin remains in the center of attention, and the most valuable coin finally breached the $10,000 level today, causing another strong wave of liquidation in the majors, that could be the base of a more durable bottom, and a consolidation in the coming days after the crazy last couple of days.

The coin is now oversold from a short-term perspective, and although further losses are likely before the end of the cycle, given the still only neutral long-term momentum readings, a counter-trend move is possible in the coming days. Below, $9000, strong support levels are still found at $8200 and near $7650.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins got slaughtered in the two-day crash with Ripple leading the way lower, while Ethereum also lost its relative strength amid the broad sell-off and its recent trendline break. ETH got close to the next major support level at $740 during today’s move, and as the short-term momentum is now oversold, a bounce to the zone around $1000 could be ahead. We still expect the correction to continue in the token, as the long-term momentum remains overbought, with key support at $625 and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple fell as low as the $0.85 support level during the crash, and although the coin rebounded above $1 afterward, it remains 70% off its recent all-time highs. Long-term investors could already accumulate small positions on the short-term sell-offs, although the correction will likely continue, and a prolonged consolidation phase might also be ahead. Key support levels are now found at $0.85 and $0.68, while resistance is ahead at $1.25.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin moved below the mini-crash lows from December as expected, and it remained relatively weak during the move, although it held up above the next major support level at $125. While the long-term momentum readings are now neutral, the currency could still test the last main break-out level near $100 before the end of the current cycle.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash has also been among the weaker majors from a technical perspective in recent days, and the coin also penetrated the mini-crash lows as we expected. The currency fell back to the key zone between $600 and $650, and that could be the base for a durable bounce within the ongoing correction. Below that, further support is found at $500, $470, and near $410.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic dipped below its prior all-time $23 today, and as the short-term picture is now oversold, the coin could be in for a durable rebound. The currency is facing strong resistance near $30, and we expect the broad correction to continue with still a possible dip towards the key $18 level, but long-term investors could already accumulate the coin near the major support levels.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero dropped below the $300 level as expect and it bottomed out near the next significant level at $240 during today’s crash. The coin remains one of the strongest majors, from a technical perspective, but further corrective price action is likely given the long-term setup. Below $240, support is found at $200, $180, and $150, and long-term investors could be looking for entry points around that level, while traders should wait for a confirmed trend change before entering new positions.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO only briefly left its strong short-term uptrend amid the segment wide sell-off, and the coin held up above the $100 level for now. As the coin just started its correction, we expect relatively late bottom compared to the other majors, with important support levels are now found at $100, $80, $64, and $56.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Despite the large percentage loss, IOTA is showing early signs of technical strength, as it is not far below the key $3 level that has been in the center of attention for several weeks now. Long-term investors could accumulate the coin on the short-term sell-offs now, and                those in short positions should reduce their holdings here. remains inside the dominant correction pattern after testing the declining trendline yet again. Support levels are now found at $2.35 and $1.5, with a short-term zone just below $2.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 393 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Lakshmana

    January 18, 2018 at 1:20 am

    Five stars all the way. Thanks Mate, just your daily analyses are easily worth the whole subscription.

  2. uss_callister

    January 18, 2018 at 7:56 am

    Great job Mate. Keep it up!

  3. felix

    January 18, 2018 at 10:48 am

    Great job Mate!

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Analysis

Pre-Market Analysis And Chartbook: Markets Flat Ahead of Key Economic Data

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Wednesday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,729 0.02%
DAX 30 11,467 -0.05%
WTI Crude Oil 56.16 1.59%
GOLD 1,202 -0.03%
Bitcoin 6,211 -0.80%
EUR/USD 1.1287 -0.01%

As traders awaited the key US economic releases of the week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Sales report, financial markets were relatively quiet and flat before the Wall Street open, but things got volatile since then, despite the muted CPI reading. The progress in the Brexit negotiations and the liquidation event in crude oil were making headlines today, although the advance in the Pound stalled, as equity markets and in general risk assets are still under clear selling pressure following the turmoil in October. The second half of the week will likely see strong moves across asset classes, and given the negative technicals, odds favor a risk-off shift globally.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar is consolidation after its move to new 16-months highs on Monday, and for now, the currency failed to confirm the break-out, at least as measured by the Dollar index. The EUR/USD is showing a slightly different picture compared to the broader measure, and the common currency is still in a steep downtrend, even as it is back near the key 1.13 level, retracing a large chunk of Monday’s move.

A durable recovery above 1.13 could signal a failed break-down and another consolidation phase in the pair, with the long-term momentum indicators still being oversold, but the broad downtrend is clearly intact, and long positions should only be considered as short-term trades.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

In equities, we continue to see bearish technicals from a broader perspective, and although the post-Fed selloff halted, for now, the re-test of the October lows still seems likely in the coming weeks. The Nasdaq is still relatively weak compared to the other major US benchmarks, and the tech benchmark is the closest to its lows, even after yesterday’s bounce.

The overnight session saw a slight bullish bias in stocks, with the indices holding on to above their weekly lows, but we still view the short-term rally attempts as selling opportunities given the hostile technicals across the globe.

Crude Oil in Turmoil as Copper Holds Support, For Now

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bounce that we have been expecting in crude oil didn’t materialize despite the deeply oversold momentum readings, as the dip below the $58-$60 zone triggered a liquidation event in the commodity. The worst day for oil in 3 years saw the WTI contract falling below $55 per barrel, its lowest level in a year. Today, oil is attempting a recovery, and we continue to expect a rally up to the $63-$65 zone in the coming weeks.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Elsewhere in the commodity segment, we are seeing further signs of weakness, despite the pullback in the Dollar. Gold is having a flat quiet day, so far, hovering near the $1200 price level, while despite the renewed trade-deal optimism, copper failed to bounce higher substantially amid the slight risk-on shift. The industrial metal is trading just above its recent swing low, and a move below that would be a sign that the lengthy consolidation phase is ending and the broader downtrend is about to resume.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 393 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

EOS Update: Preparing for a Big Bullish Move

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EOS has been stuck in a range since August 8, 2018. It’s been trading between $6.65 and $4.50 with a midpoint of $5.30. If you’re a day trader, the range is wide enough to exploit and generate serious profits. However, this is not the case for many retail investors who bought the bottom and are anticipating the next big rally. They’d want to know when EOS (EOS/USD) would make another substantial move.

The good news is we are certain that it’s soon, very likely within a month. The next question would be the direction. This is something we’ll never be 100% certain of. However, we looked at the charts and we’re confident that this move will usher in a new higher high.

In this article, we reveal how this coin is preparing for a big bullish move.

Unnerving Lack of Volatility

EOS has been slowly flatlining since September 2018. The trading range has become tighter and tighter with each passing week. You can see the almost non-existent volatility in the weekly RSI. The indicator has moved within a three-point range (42 – 45) in the last two months.

Weekly RSI range

In addition to the weekly RSI, the daily trading range has been suffocating. The last time Bollinger bands were this tight was about a year ago. It was at the point before EOS launched a massive bull run.

Daily Chart

Before you get excited, we have to be clear that narrow trading ranges do not necessarily foretell a bull run. However, it is a prelude to a big move. It is the proverbial calm before the storm. The storm, we believe, will nourish the bellies of starving bulls.

Alleviating Resistance to Support (RS) Flip

EOS has a diagonal trendline that cuts through both the bull and bear runs. The trendline started to exist on January 20, 2018 when it acted as resistance and prevented the market from going above $15.75. The first RS flip happened on April 24 when EOS breached resistance of $12.00. This helped the market climb to $23.029 on April 29.

The diagonal trendline continued to serve as a support for EOS until June 22 when the market breached support of $9.50. This effectively flipped the support into resistance. EOS worked very hard to take back the diagonal trendline but to no avail. As a result, the market dropped to lows of $4.1778.

Diagonal trendline

The price action described above illustrates the impact of this trendline. It provides massive resistance when the market is below it. On the other hand, it offers firm support when EOS traded above it. Thus, the market would have been in a bad shape now if bulls would not have put up a strong fight. Luckily, they did.

With a series of higher lows, bulls eventually flipped the resistance into support on September 27. They also completed the retest when EOS dropped to $5.0014 on October 11. This tells us that bulls are mobilizing. It looks like they are quietly and patiently accumulating at these levels.

Promising Inverted EOS Chart

If you’re having trouble believing that EOS is starting to look bullish, then allow us to present to you the inverted chart. One look and you’ll know that this chart is prime for massive shorting.

Inverted weekly chart

This inverted chart looks like it already topped out. It tried really hard to take out resistance of $3.50 but it failed again and again. Its inability to breach the resistance led to exhaustion. You can see the rally fading in the declining volume. The market persistently rose even if volume steadily decreased. This is not a sustainable ascent.

As a result, the market appears to have broken down of an ascending triangle pattern. It is currently retesting the resistance but without volume, it is likely that the market will resume its descent. When it does, EOS will make its big move.

Bottom Line

With volatility almost non-existent, EOS appears to be preparing for a massive move. While this is something we are certain of, the direction is still not guaranteed. However, the recent RS flip of the diagonal downtrend and the inverted weekly chart make us believe that EOS is gearing up for a big bullish move.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 269 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Selloff Accelerates as Bitcoin Brakes Support

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The bearish period continued so far today in the cryptocurrency segment with several majors falling below key short-term support levels. Bitcoin violated the $6275 level, Ethereum fell back below $200, while Ripple is now under the $0.50 price level again. The smaller coins are also under clear selling pressure, and our trend model continues to overwhelmingly negative picture, especially with regards to the long-term time-frame.                

BTC/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin hit its lowest level in a month, dropping below the $6275 support and likely setting up a test of the $6000 level and putting the key long-term support zone near $5850 in danger as well. The total value of the market declined by more than $5 billion due to the selloff, and bulls would need a quick recovery to avoid another leg lower in the bear market following the lengthy consolidation period.

Bitcoin faces strong resistance at $6500, $6750, and $7000 while below $5850 the next major support zone is found between $5000 and $5100. Traders should still stay away from opening new positions, with our trend model still being on a short-term sell signal.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple also followed the broader market lower, and the now it’s clearly below the $0.51 level, with the recent weakness warranting a downgrade to neutral in our trend model concerning the short-term time-frame.

While the long-term outlook is still neutral, given the segment-wide trends, traders and investors should remain cautious with new positions even in the case of a renewed buy signal in the coming period. Support below $0.51 is still found between $0.42 and $0.46, while further resistance is ahead near $0.54 and $0.57.

Litecoin Nears Bear Market Low as Ethereum Tests $200 Again

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum dropped below the key $200 support/resistance level again after last week’s failed rally attempt, and now the coin is once again on sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model. While the second largest coin is well above its bear market low, which is found near $170, but given the strong bearish long-term trend, odds continue to favor a test of that and possibly the $160 support as well.

With that in mind, traders and investors should still stay away from the coin ETH, with strong resistance zones ahead near $235 and $260, and with further support found at $180

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is still among the weakest top coins and it’s getting closer and closer to the bear market low near $47, with a breakdown being very likely in the coming weeks. The $44 price level is the next main support, while in the case of a recovery above $51, the next strong resistance zone is found near $56, with another zone above that at $54.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS fell below the key $5.35 support/resistance level amid the broad selloff today, and now it’s on a short-term sell signal again, with the long-term trend clearly being negative. Now, a test of the $5 level seems likely in the coming days, and a break below that could set up a move towards the strong support zone near $4.50.

That said, the consolidation period could still continue, and the coin might still avoid a new bear market low, which could point to an ongoing long-term bottoming process.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 393 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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