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Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Falls Below $9000 as Positive Divergences Emerge

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The correction that started on Monday accelerated in the last couple of days, and a bottom could already be in after today’s overnight rout, given the panicky market action, although a re-test or another leg lower is still in the cards, as the short-term downtrends are intact in the majors.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been leading the way lower, with the Mt. Gox Whale reports driving the most valuable coin’s price lower. BTC violated the line-in-the-sand support zone between $9000 and $9200 during the latest round of the sell-off, and it remains stuck below that despite the bounce in European trading.

The short-term MACD is now clearly oversold, almost reaching crash-territory, and long-term investors can once again add to their holdings here, while traders should wait for the short-term trend to turn before entering new positions. Below today’s lows, strong support is found near $7650, while further resistance is ahead at $10,000 and $10,500.

Correlations, which remained elevated throughout the fall, with all of the majors hitting new lows in a concerted fashion, are now breaking down slightly and some coins are showing early signs of relative strength. That said, the declining short-term trends are still intact, and traders should remain defensive in case of most of the top coins.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is also still in a clear short-term downtrend following the failure to break-out from the broader bearish trend. Despite the current move, we expect the coin to resume the recovery, and tackle the longer-term downtrend again. Short-term support is now found near $650, with a stronger level at $625, while resistance is ahead near $740 and $780.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin spiked below the $170 support overnight, but it remained relatively strong amid the broad decline, and the coin has also been leading the way higher today. The coin is already on the verge of a short-term buy signal, and as LTC was one of the early leaders of the recovery that bodes well for the rest of the segment too. Resistance is still ahead at $200, between $225 and $235, and at $250, while key support below $170 is at $150.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash continues to trade relatively weak compared to the other majors, as it is trading just above the intraday low, after back in the prior declining trend today. While short-term traders should still stay away from entering new positions, long-term investors could add to their holdings at the current levels. Resistance is now found near $500, $600, and $650, while support is near $435, $400, and $375.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple held up relatively well despite dipping below $0.85 again, and the coin is not far off the crucial level despite the continued selling pressure in the segment. A recovery above resistance would be a bullish short-term signal, but for now, traders should remain defensive here, but investors could still add to their holdings. Resistance is still found at $1, $1.25, and $1.5, while primary support is at $0.68.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETC is showing early signs of strength near the $20 level, but for now, bears are firmly in control, and short-term traders shouldn’t open new positions here. The declining short-term trend is clearly dominant, and a test of the $18 level is still possible in the coming days, with further support at $16 and $14.50. A rally above $23 would open up the way to $25 and $27 and long-term investors could once again add to their holdings after the deep correction.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero plunged as low as the $240 support overnight, and the short-term momentum is now in oversold territory, pointing to a possible durable bottom. That said, traders should remain defensive until a confirmed trend change, while investors should also wait with adding to their holdings after the strong recent rally. Key resistance is ahead near $280 and $300, while further support is at $215 and $200.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO hit $80 during the recent leg of the sell-off, and the coin is now oversold from a short-term perspective, with a likely short-term bottom being close. Long-term investors could still add to their holdings here, as we expect the recovery to resume. Support below $80 is at $64, while resistance is ahead at $100, between $120 and $130, just above $150, and at $190.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is stuck below the vital $1.5 level, and the coin was the only one hitting a new low below the February minimum, confirming its relative weakness. Short-term traders should still stay away from opening new positions, despite the clearly oversold momentum, with support levels found at $1.2 and $1.1.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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  1. Cachingman

    March 11, 2018 at 1:06 pm

    I’m looking at the chart for bitcoin of the last 3 months, so zooming out a bit more from the chart shown above. Aren’t we seeing the formation of a double bottom pattern where the trendline is heading for the lows of the beginning of February?
    If so, it would mean a continuation of the pullback in the next week or 2. But that could be a good setup for a major uptrend with strong support afterwards…

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Settle Down After Weekend Pump & Dump

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While crypto bulls had something to cheer about early on during the weekend following a rally attempt in the majors, the move once again failed to improve the technical setup in the segment, and the top coins quickly gave back their gains. Now, most of the coins are trading near the bottom of their short-term ranges and technicals continue to point to the continuation of the bear market.

Correlations are still very high, there is no sign of a developing bullish leadership, and with none of the key coins showing bullish momentum, bulls are facing strong headwinds. While trading volumes and volatility remain relatively low thanks to the range-trading environment a move below primary support could trigger larger moves in the majors soon.

The negative long-term trends are still in no danger, and although there is still a slight chance of a failed break-down pattern to develop in the market, odds favor a bearish short-term outcome as well. With that in mind, traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here, with our trend model being on sell signals on both time-frames in the case of the majority of the coins.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Bitcoin is still relatively stable compared to its most important peers, it gave back all of its weekend gains and fell back below the key $3600 support/resistance level yesterday. Now, BTC is threatening with a break-down below the prior sing low, and given the recent weakness, our trned model is now on a short-term sell signal.

While bulls could still be saved by a move above $3850, the failed rally attempts warn of selling pressure, and a bearish continuation is more likely here. Further strong resistance is ahead between $4000 and $4050, with support zones still found near $3250 and $3000, and traders should still not enter positions.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum shoed relative weakness during the rally attempt this weekend, and it is now very close to a break below the key swing low, which would likely lead to a move towards the key support zone between $95 and $100. The coin remains on sell single son both time-frames, and with a test of the bear market low near the $80 price level seems likely in the coming weeks.

Strong resistance is ahead just above the current price level and near $130, with further zones at $145, $160, and near $180 while a weak short-term support is found near $112, and the coin’s weakness is a negative sign for the whole segment.

Altcoins Still Weak Despite Rally Attempt

STR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While none of the major altcoins broke the key short-term support levels, the overall picture remains bearish and we haven’t seen signs of resilience that would indicate a short-term bottom and the resumption of the counter-trend move.

Stellar, which has been among the bearish leaders towards the end of 2018, is once again showing relative weakness while following the trends in the broader market, should the coin violate the $0.10 level, a quick to new bear market lows would be likely, with the $0.09 level being the only lone of defense for bulls.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple still seems very fragile from a technical standpoint, and a move below $0.30 looks inevitable in the coming weeks, with a likely test of the bear market low near $0.28. The $32 support/resistance level remains in focus, but given the weak rally attempts and the bearish long-term setup, we don’t expect the coin to get back to the $0.3550 level in the coming period.

Our trend model is still on sell signals on both time-frames, with further strong support found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3750, and in the key long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is back near the key $30-$30.50 support zone after the volatile weekend, and it also looks ready to dip below that zone, even as the short-term trading range is still intact. The steep long-term downtrend is intact despite the recent counter-trend move, and traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here, with the short-term setup also being bearish. Strong resistance is ahead near $34.50, $38, and $44 with further support found near $26 and $23.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bulls Reclaim 1.2900, Eyes Locked on Another Retest of 1.3000

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  • GBP/USD bulls pick up momentum to the upside, following generally positive tone to Theresa May’s Plan B statement.
  • Next upside targets for the bulls should they firmly breakdown 1.2900 again, will be the psychological 1.3000 mark.

GBP/USD throughout the session on Monday remained very much elevated. This came as market participants were somewhat maintaining an optimistic view. All of which heading into the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech to the House of Commons, on her Brexit plan b. Of course, this had to be drafted again, given her humiliating defeat at the vote last week, on the initial EU withdrawal plan.

Theresa May Plan B

In terms of her details this time round, she will be going back to Brussels, to seek some amendments to her initial agreement. This needs to be done in order to get a plan through another vote in the commons. Looking at some of the GBP bullish takeaways from this statement; she guaranteed rights for EU citizens at several angles, scraping the application fee EU nationals registering in Britain, discussing the backstop with the DUP this week.

To conclude, PM May appears keen in her language to ensure of a soft-Brexit, rather than one that is hard. All of which supported GBP in its push to session highs, at the time, briefly moving back above 1.2900. The price had given up this area on 18th January, when the bears were reversing the run observed on 17th, where GBP/USD touched to big psychological 1.3000 mark again.

Technical Review – GBP/USD

GBP/USD 60-minute chart. Near-term resistance eyed at 1.2900, with bulls locked in on a retest of 1.3000.

GBP/USD at the time of writing continues to trade around the 1.2900 territory. This price did see a brief period cooling, on touted profit-taking post the statement. Near-term resistance can be seen within this price region, but if convincingly broken down again, then there is decent upside potential. Aside from the supply observed here, there isn’t much in the way of the 1.3000 price region.

Given the renewed optimism around Brexit now, this has assisted in maintaining momentum to the upside for GBP. In terms of support to the downside, a strong area of demand should be noted at 1.2850-25 price region. As can be seen via the 60-minute chart view, this has supported the price since 15th January.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 112 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today

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1, Chinese GDP Growth Slows to Multi-Decade Low

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

When even the strongly PR-optimized Chinese economic releases are showing severe weakness, it’s not at all surprising that the local stock market is in a deep bear market, and even the explosive oversold rally on Wall Street combined with the trade optimism of last week is not enough to meaningfully change the technical setup.

While economic growth slowed to an almost 30-year low on a yearly basis, retail sales and industrial production beat the consensus estimates by a hair, but that wasn’t enough to cause a material rally in equities, with the global sentiment leaning slightly bearish. This week’s most important question will be how risk assets will hold on to their recent gains, with a special attention on China and Europe, which continue to lag behind the US from a technical perspective.

The Shanghai Composite is more than 30% below its bull market highs, while the main European benchmarks are also around 20% below their respective highs, and that’s following one of the strongest short squeezes in history on Wall Street, mind you. The next few days could be crucial for markets, and we now advise caution even for short-term bulls.

2, Stocks Retreat after Friday Ramp with Wall Street Closed

German DAX 30 Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Looking at Europe, the major indices failed to extend their gains from Friday, while US stock futures are also modestly lower after the European close. With the US markets being closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day, trading volumes and activity has been predictably low, and things will likely get heated tomorrow, as the earnings season will also continue.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and IBM (IBM0 will report earnings tomorrow, and all eyes will be on their overseas numbers and guidance amid the global economic slowdown. We had some negative reports regarding the US-Chinese trade talks, concerning the sensitive issue of Intellectual Property, and we still think that even though an agreement is likely in the coming months, implementation and enforcement will be borderline impossible.

3, Oil Tests December High

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While risk assets, in general, had a slightly bearish half-session crude oil kept on pushing higher following Friday’s move to new correction highs, with the WTI contract entering the resistance zone that capped the December consolidation. The crucial commodity, which has been slightly lagging US stocks from a technical perspective is still squeezing late shorts, but we expect a short-term top very soon, possibly after a stop hunting rally above the $55 per barrel level.

What’s sure, is that we wouldn’t be buyers at these levels, even in light of the OPEC production cut, since over-supply remains a major issue, and the increase in US output continues. That said, the short-term uptrend is intact and the topping process could take a while, but we will keep a close eye on the day-to-day price action following the 25% rally off the December lows.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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