The cryptocurrency segment has a two-faced session today, as Bitcoin’s amazing rise continues to make headlines, while the major altcoins are in in the red across the board with even the previous leaders turning lower. BTC’s dominant rally carried the most valuable coin to the $250 billion mark in market capitalization, while the total value of the coins jumped over $400 billion thanks to BTC’s exponential rise.
Timing the top of such a rally is close to impossible, but the uninterrupted vertical advance usually ends in a similarly spectacular plunge, so traders should keep their position sizes small, and investors should wait for a deep correction before adding to their holdings, even amid the strong FOMO. Those holding trading positions should use trailing stops to exit from the meteoric trend, while support levels are found at $11,300, $10,000 and $9000, with stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.
BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
IOTA has also experienced an exponential rally as the advance in altcoins narrowed to only a few coins yesterday, and the coin already fell 40% top-to-bottom, although it is still well above the levels seen even a week ago, following the spectacular break-out that was fueled by the Microsoft deal. IOTA remains extremely overbought despite the correction and we still expect the current cycle to bottom out at much lower levels with strong support only found at $1.50, and $1.1.
IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum is testing last week’s lows amid the altcoin decline after bouncing back to our primary target at $480. The coin is clearly inside its long-term uptrend, but further corrective price action is likely before a durable move above $500. The long-term momentum indicators never reached extreme levels during this cycle, and we expect the currency to outperform during a coming correction with strong support levels at $400, $380, and $350.
LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Litecoin moved lower out of the topping pattern of the previous days, as the weaker momentum led to a selling below the key $100 level. The coin is still overbought regarding the long-term picture, and we expect a re-test of the $75 level, or even the $64 support before the next major bullish move.
DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Dash continued lower today after breaking-below the short-term uptrend, as the coin remains “ahead of the curve” compared to the other major altcoins, while still having one of the strongest uptrends from an investment perspective. That said, we expect further correction in the market, as the overbought momentum remains the dominant factor here, with key support levels found just above $600, at $500, $470, and near $410.
XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ripple remains among the relatively weak coins and it continues to drift lower today after breaking below the weak rising trendline recently. The coin is now under the key $0.2250 level as well, and although the long-term setup remains bullish, and the momentum indicators are not overbought, we expect volatile range trading as the segment-wide correction runs its course. Support levels are found just below $0.20 and at $0.18, while resistance is ahead at $0.26 and between $0.30 and $0.32.
ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum Classic is also under meaningful selling pressure today after drifting out of a steeply rising trend. The coin is likely to correct below the $23 level during the current cycle after the stellar rally in November, with the next major support found at %18. Primary resistance is ahead at $30, with the all-time high at $32.
XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Monero entered a volatile correction after moving up to the $300 level in the latter stages of the altcoin rally, and it tested the range extension level at $240 today. We expect further downside in the coin, as the long-term momentum is extremely overbought, with major support found at $200, $180, and $150, although the short-term uptrend is still intact.
NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
NEO continued lower together with the other major altcoins, as it failed at the key $40 level once again, despite the still encouraging long-term picture. The coin is now trading under the $34 support, with another strong level at $30. We expect volatile range-trading to continue in the coming period, but a move towards the all-time high is likely afterward.
Featured image from Shutterstock
Disclaimer: The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.
Technical Analysis: Litecoin Continues Surge as Bitcoin Tests Highs
With the crypto world being focused on the historical futures launch, the major coins all enjoyed buying following a hectic weekend, and a volatile week as a whole. BTC itself got another boost from the widespread publicity and the volatile correction of the recent days ended, with the most valuable coin bouncing back towards its all-time high.
While the long-term picture remains severely overbought, the short-term picture is not stretched and further gains are possible even amid the elevated correction risk. That said, investors should wait for a more favorable entry point to ad dot their holdings, while traders should control position sizes in the light of the long-term setup. Major support levels are now near $13,000, $11,300, and $10,000, with stronger levels still at $8200 and $7700.
BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The major altcoins are all up today, but only Monero and Litecoin are still within short-term uptrends, and the segment as a whole is still dangerously overextended, and a deeper correction is very likely in the coming weeks. LTC continued its recent break-out, getting close to the $200 level, and joining the extremely overbought group regarding the long-term momentum, and triggering a long-term sell signal in our trend model. Key support levels are found $100 at $75 and $64, with a weaker primary level at $125.
LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Long-Term Analysis of the Silver Market
The silver market has once again caught investors’ interest as the price is nearing areas not seen since late 2008.
2017 started at a low point for silver, and it seems it will end the year that way as well, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of the year haven’t suffered nor gained much.
This doesn’t mean, however, that the price hasn’t moved during the year. After the low start of the year, silver quickly tacked on about 18% to a top of $17.50 per ounce.
In terms of fundamentals in the silver market, things look a bit complicated for 2018. There are multiple forces pulling in different directions for the price of silver going forward:
- A sharp stock market correction can be expected to occur some time in 2018. Most likely, this will happen sooner rather than later. Stock market crashes always trigger a flight to safety, meaning gold, silver, and quite possibly bitcoin, can benefit.
- We are seeing signs that inflation may be starting to rise again, although this is not confirmed yet. Rising inflation is always good for precious metals.
- If the US federal budget deficit widens as a result of the new tax reform, the US dollar may suffer as a consequence. Goldman Sachs put out a note to investors in November 2017 saying that the US debt is “on track” to reach an “unsustainable” level in coming years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has also said about the US debt that it is “the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” Rising debt levels creates uncertainty about the economy, which is generally good for gold and silver.
- Central banks around the world seem committed to raise interest rates in 2018. Rising interest rates are bad for precious metals because it would make it more attractive to put money in the bank.
- The cryptocurrency bull market is on track to continue, diverting attention and capital away from precious metals as a traditional store of value. However, this one is uncertain, as it may also be considered a positive in the way that the rise of cryptocurrencies brings the inflationary and unsustainable nature of fiat currencies into focus.
- The US dollar may have hit a bottom in 2017 and trade higher compared to other major fiat currencies going into 2018. A stronger dollar is always bad for precious metals, which are priced in dollars.
When looking at the chart, we can see that silver is back down to were it started the year, which coincides with a major support area where it has turned several times in the past few years.
From a technical perspective, silver has been trading in a triangle pattern on the longer-term weekly chart, with the price now trading very near the lower end of the triangle, adding confluence to our bias that silver will trade up from here.
Silver failed to live up to our prediction from early 2017, and is now even trading well below the level from that time.
A low price by any measure combined with two major technical support levels adds confidence to our trade and makes silver a low risk and potentially high reward trade for 2018.
Depending on your own strategy and investment style, you may want to wait for the price to break out from the current triangle pattern it has been trading in for the past year and a half. You would then give up some of the potential return for an even safer trade. After that, major resistance is found around $17.50 and $18, with lots of upside potential if we can finally break through those levels.
Featured image from Pixabay.
Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Look Out Below?
After last week’s observation that a major top is in or near in the segment, the Bitcoin surge continued for almost a week, with Thursday’s wild session taking the coin as high as $19,000 (the article uses Bitstamp prices) on some exchanges. While the currency already pulled back by more than 20% the long-term picture is still extremely overbought and a much deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks.
BTC spiked below $13,000 today, violating the primary weak support at $13,300, with further levels now at $11,300, $10,000 and $9000, but stronger support only found at $8200 and $7700. Next week’s futures launch could cause another jump in trading activity, and volatility is expected to remain very high amid the likely correction.
BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
While not all altcoins participated in the, supposedly, last part of the rally, IOTA, Monero, and towards the end of the week Litecoin, also stretched above all conventional targets with IOTA also turning exponential after a deal with Microsoft. The coin exploded by more than 350% before entering an initial sharp correction, breaking the steepest short-term uptrend. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, but potential Fibonacci support is at $2.35.
IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Let’s see how the long-term charts of the other altcoins look after the crazy week.
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