Sunday Devotional: Keep Your #Hodl Hand Strong
If you bought now, at the all-time highs of Bitcoin and you’re itchy about $5,000 or $10,000, perhaps taking a look at those who’ve been in your shoes before is in order. Or perhaps you don’t have much Bitcoin, but you’ve got a lot of Ethereum and tokens on its blockchain. Even better, perhaps you’re holding a number of one of the alleged Bitcoin long-term contenders, XMR or Dash.
If you look historically at the people who’ve bought during other highs, the ones who got impatient are the ones who lost the most. The ones who quietly held through were rewarded the most richly.
We can take the example of a friend of the publication, who sold Bitcoin very near the ultimate bottom. Strictly speaking he could have had $50 million in Bitcoin assets today if he had instead decided to hold, but things certainly looked bleak for the currency in those days. He was not alone in selling the bottom, nor truly irrational when one considered all the angles. No one ever is. This is what you have to keep in mind: people who were buying at that time were paying the most anyone was willing to pay, and people who were selling were accepting far less than they had seen others sell coins for. But some people were just off the market in those waters. These people played a successful strategy through a long, cold winter.
Some mining outfits are always dumping their coins, no matter the price. Bills have to be paid, after all. So while it may seem that Bitcoin is “stable” at its current prices, we’re just as likely to see turbulence and dips. Unless you’ve some more performative place to put your funds (such as one of the trade recommendations or ICOs reviewed here at Hacked), you’re still probably going to end up with a greater long-term profit by retaining the coins. Especially if you retain them in ways that ensure they truly belong to you, IE, off exchanges during times when you don’t anticipate actually trading them.
There’s nothing wrong with selling the highs and buying the lows, but long-term, some people have done equally as well by doing nothing at all. While this article is meant as a broad overview, one can imagine that some people had to take measures to deal with the old weak hand syndrome. After all, if everyone is panicking and letting you know the building is on fire, it only makes sense to try and escape with everyone else.
But if you believe firmly in the longevity of your asset, sticking it out may become worth it. Increasingly, products will emerge that will allow people to maintain possession of their crypto assets but extract leverage via peer-to-peer and even institutional lending. Such a paradigm will enable the crypto class to enter the business world in unforeseen ways, perhaps in unforeseen numbers.
Buy and hold is a strategy that will work well for so-called “blue chip” cryptos, but it is not future-proof. Aside from security holes that can arise in cryptography from generation to generation, simple innovation can displace something like a cryptocurrency, and network effects can shift current. If one region of the world becomes less friendly, in a regulatory sense, to do business in, then perhaps cryptocurrency will move its volume to another.
Cryptocurrency is by definition censorship resistant, after all, because a design which does not enable its fungibility is essentially the opposite of the “digital cash” paradigm. When such problems arise, those who kept their hold hand strong will still be able to conduct business, and where things are most repressive, in a more catastrophic forecast, still be able to escape troubled waters.
featured image courtesy of Pixabay