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Stretch Your Limits

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Seeing Bitcoin and Ethereum both in double digit gains this morning is certainly a welcome sight. Let’s hope this continues.

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The Bitcoin scalability issue is currently coming to a head. The website known as bitcoin.org has recently published this statement on their site.

Without going into too much detail, they’ve basically said to stop all Bitcoin transactions from August 1st until the confusion clears up but did not specify when that might occur.

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Of course, the most alarming statement…

So yeah. This is real. This is happening to our beloved original digital form of money. We sincerely hope the changes will be for the better.

More details will be published in coming market updates. For now, let’s take a look at some other things that are moving. What I will say is to please be prepared for extra volatility within the crypto markets.

Of course, we’re already speaking about the most volatile asset class since the beginning of time. It’s quite possible that in the coming days, even these limits will be stretched.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs below are valid as of July 18th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Shock and awe gripped Washington DC yesterday when a vote to repeal Obamacare was squashed in the Senate.

With the Republicans controlling three out of three branches of the US government, getting rid of one of the most opposed policies from the previous president should have been a walk in the park.

Good thing the stock markets were closed when the vote was finalized. Wall Street was not damaged in the least. Perhaps the news cycle will move on by the time they open today.

Other markets were certainly affected. Asian markets appear to be down so far this morning.

Most notably though, is the US Dollar, which took a massive hit. The Inflation figures that came out on Friday had sent it to the lowest point since before the US elections (yellow circle). Last night’s bad news has sent the US Dollar back to the levels it was trading last August.

Carney’s Novel Opinion

At 2:30 PM London time Mark Carney will be unveiling the new £10 note, featuring Jane Austen. Apparently, they can’t put JK Rowling on any money just yet, so they decided to go with one of her favorite authors.

This event will be a welcome intermission for the troubled central banker. Politics and Policy have put the Canadian born Governor of the Bank of England at wit’s end.

His recent turnaround in attitude towards lifting rates has been pushing the Pound higher lately. At the time of this writing, the GBPUSD is giving the 1.3100 level a serious test.

Could the late Jane Austin spark further demand and cause investors to start speaking about a Sterling recovery?

Something Happening

The Australian Dollar is stretching its limits today as speculation builds on the Reserve Bank of Australia.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe opted to play it safe during their last meeting and did not raise the interest rates. However, the minutes of that meeting which were published last night indicated that they are indeed happy with the way the economy is going.

This optimism directly reflects the attitude of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, who just raised their interest rates last week.

The thought that the Australian Dollar might soon be offering a higher rate on deposits has many traders on the edge of ecstasy. This is already a very lucrative carry trade opportunity. The thought that the value of the currency can go higher and that the rollover payments could increase has caused a virtual explosion in the price.

Put all that against a weaker greenback and we can see some real satisfaction on this graph of the AUDUSD.

Have an awesome day!!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be an investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Broad Correction Enters Next Phase

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The overbought BTC-led correction that has been the dominating technical process in the cryptocurrency segment in the last month or so continued in earnest today, amid the intensifying regulatory steps concerning the sector. The three-week-long consolidation that followed the initial mini-crash concluded with a sharp sell-off overnight rearranging the long-term charts, while likely kicking off another volatile period.

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While most of the crash lows held up today in early trading in the majors, especially in the case of the late leaders like Ethereum and NEO, some of the relatively weaker coins are already trading below the December minimums. We expect most of the majors to follow Dash and LTC, the weakest of the largest coins, lower and trade below the previous lows, as sentiment will likely swing to a bearish extreme.

The $11,300 level has been in the center of attention throughout the session today and the most valuable coin experienced heavy trading around the level as expected. As the daily MACD is still in neutral territory, the coin could be in for another leg lower, but after the 40% correction and the rather lengthy consolidation, investors could be looking for entry points during the move near the key support levels at $10,000, $9000, and the stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

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BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

As Ethereum is in a different part of its cycle the long-term momentum readings are still overbought, and that could mean a more protracted correction for the second largest coin. That said, following a multi-month consolidation like the one in Ethereum before, we still expect the token to outperform BTC from a long-term technical standpoint. ETH is now below the short-term trendline, and it’s likely to dip below $1000, and the prior top at $850. Further key levels are found at $740, $625, $575, and near $500.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see the outlook for the other major altcoins after today’s bloodbath.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Chinese Crackdown Triggers Next Leg of Correction

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The cryptocurrency segment is crashing again, with double-digit losses across the board, and with several coins shedding around 30% in one day amid the widespread and heavy selling. The sell-off was triggered by reports on a new set of measures by the Chinese authorities limiting crypto trading, which added to the still looming South Korea related regulation worries. Bitcoin tested the mini-crash lows at $11,300 today in early trading, dipping slightly below that level before a strong bounce started.

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The most valuable coin is now between two crucial support/resistance lines, with the other ahead at $13,000, and as the downtrend is entering its more mature phase the $10,000 and $9,200 levels could come in play, with a possible dip to the support zone near $7,650.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Interestingly, the coin is still hovering within the daily range of the crash of December 22nd, and that points to a very active and volatile period ahead near the low at $11,300, as automatic orders will likely get triggered on both sides of the market.

The short-term setup is bearish, and although it’s possible that the primary support level will hold, odds still favor another leg lower, following the exponential run-up at the end of last year that pushed sentiment into bullish extremes.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Altcoins

NEO Shows Poise While Other Cryptocurrencies Struggle

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NEO has quietly emerged as one of 2018’s best performing cryptocurrencies, defying multiple market selloffs en route to new highs. The so-called Ethereum of China has also carved out a name for itself in the fast-growing ICO market, where it is now among a small handful of blockchains enabling startups to raise capital through the popular crowdfunding model.

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New Record Highs

NEO was the only major cryptocurrency to spike this weekend, even as bitcoin and Ethereum suffered declines. The coin pushed higher on Monday, hitting a new record of $205.46. It would later consolidate around $190 for a gain of 17%.

The latest rally gives NEO a market cap of $11.8 billion, putting it eighth among active cryptocurrencies. Trade volumes over the last 24 hours reached $1.5 billion with 65 million tokens in circulation. The majority of the turnover occurred on just two exchanges: Upbit and Binance.

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With the gain, NEO’s value has appreciated around 120% year-to-date. That’s nearly double the price growth of Ethereum, a comparable platform that recently took back the second seed on the crypto market cap leader board.

Ethereum of China

NEO’s trajectory over the last six months has mirrored Ethereum’s both in terms of value and project development. Its success is partly owed to ether, as both cryptocurrencies are based on smart contracts. NEO differs from Ethereum on several fronts, including the execution of C# code, which makes it more attractive for developers.

Beyond the hype, NEO provides developers with the toolbox to advance the smart economy by digitizing assets and automating the management of those assets through smart contracts. It is perhaps the only cryptocurrency that can succeed in a heavily regulated China, which only recently tightened the noose on cryptocurrency miners as part of its broad offensive against digital assets.

With the exception of Stellar Lumens, NEO is perhaps the only cryptocurrency not named Ethereum that is making inroads into the ICO market. Dozens of token raises have launched on the NEO platform, including 27 in the span of two days. Although China has banned ICOs, there’s a possibility that regulators may one day introduce a centralized model that will allow the government to oversee the entire process.

According to at least one metric, ICOs raised more than $6 billion last year, with December being the most successful month yet with more than $1.6 billion raised.

While this is merely speculation at this point, the Chinese ban on cryptocurrency was initiated just before the 19th National Congress of the National Party. The event, held every five years, is usually a showdown between communists die-hards who want to maintain the old system of central planning and those who are seeking more liberal reforms.

Regardless of China’s regulatory future, NEO appears poised to capitalize on any opportunity involving public blockchain. The company certainly has that ambition, and has shown no issue following national guidelines.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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