Connect with us

Market Overview

Stocks Rise, Volatility Drops as Wall Street Marks First Session of 2018

Published

on

Wall Street marked a robust start to 2018, as the major indexes returned to record territory after a brief holiday lull.

Stocks Hit New Highs

The large-cap S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose to record highs in the first session back from holiday. The S&P 500 added 0.8% to close at 2,695.79, with seven of 11 sectors contributing to the gains.

Energy stocks posted the biggest advance, rising 1.8% as a sector. The consumer discretionary and materials components each added 1.5%. Information technology rose 1.4%, while healthcare added 1.2%.

Gains in these sectors offset sharp declines in utilities and consumer staples, which fell 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index crossed 7,000 for the first time, climbing 1.5% to 7,006.90.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 104.79 points, or 0.4%, to close at 24,824.01. That was roughly 13 points shy of an all-time high.

A measure of implied volatility known as the CBOE VIX nosedived on Tuesday, reaching its lowest level since Dec. 21 and signaling continud momentum for equities.

Volatility crept up slightly at the end of the year, but has failed to put up meaningful gains. The so-called “fear index” normally tracks in the opposite direction of the S&P 500.

Trump Reflation Trade Gives Rise to Broader Gains

Wall Street’s performance on Tuesday defied some analysts’ expectations of a broad slowdown at the start of the year. Whereas the Trump factor drove U.S. stocks for much of 2017, the bulls expect a robust global recovery to push the market forward in the next 12 months. Strong corporate earnings are also expected to underpin this growth.

That being said, several firms have warned of valuation risks, with Vanguard Group pricing in much slower growth for 2018. Back in November, the asset manager said the U.S. equity market faces a greater risk of correction in 2018. It also predicted that the major indexes would yield an average of 4% to 6% for the year, a fraction of their 2017 returns.

President Trump can still play an important role in the market this year. After signing tax reform into law, the president now has his sights set on infrastructure spending and deregulation.

Dollar’s Decline Continues

The U.S. dollar declined again to start the year, as investors continued to buy the euro and pound on rumors that other central banks will begin normalizing monetary policy. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell 0.4% to 91.85, its lowest in three months.

Gains in the U.S. currency failed to materialize in 2017 even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on three occasions. The greenback is coming off its worst year since 2003 where it declined more than 10%. Analysts expect the global reflation trade to continue undermining the U.S. currency for the foreseeable future as investors seek exposure to Chinese and European markets.

As the dollar loses its luster, commodities have been rising, with gold continuing its bullish rally. The yellow metal’s February futures contract was up by another $10.30 on Tuesday to hit a three-month high of $1,319.60 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver tacked on 9 cents to reach $17.23 a troy ounce.

Oil prices failed to rally on Tuesday, but continued to hover near multi-year highs, with U.S. futures trading well north of $60 a barrel.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 696 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




Feedback or Requests?

Market Overview

The Future of Crypto

Published

on

Hi Everyone,

When the crypto bull market was still in session, the next big thing for Wall Street was set to be Ethereum futures. Now it seems they’re back on the menu.

Futures contracts were originally invented so that farmers and merchants could hedge costs before engaging in a specific venture.

For example, imagine you want to drill oil and you more or less know your production costs but don’t want to take the risk that the price will drop by the time you’ve got the barrels ready for selling. You simply buy a futures contract for oil before embarking on the venture in order to lock in your profits in advance.

As the world goes further towards the tokenization of financial assets, the service of locking in future prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum could become essential for entrepreneurs. So, the CFTC in the United States is now asking the community for help to understand the industry’s needs so that they may accommodate them.

For those of you reading who are familiar with the ins and outs, please feel free to submit your comments to them using this link: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7855-18

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Stock Rally in Suspect
  • Draghi Day
  • Have we finally found bottom?

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of December 13th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Yesterday’s global stock rally seems to be stalling today. Indices are in the green today but the excitement may be fading. With all the recent comments from economists about how the cycle might soon come to an end or that we could be heading for another crisis, it’s difficult for traders to fully buy into any upward momentum at this time.

Crude oil is also testing the lows at the moment, and if does manage to break below $50 a barrel it could be potentially destabilizing.

European Central Bank Event

By the time you get this, the European Central Bank will probably have concluded their press conference already.

At the moment, expectations are that they will continue to wind down the quantitative easing program or possibly end it all together. Even though interest rates are not expected to rise for another year or more, it seems apparent that the ECB is following in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve in tightening up monetary policy.

Money has been flowing freely into global markets over the last decade and it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens when that money begins to be tightened once more.

Crypto Floor Possible?

With all the progress in the crypto industry lately, it’s extremely difficult to understand why prices have fallen over the last month.

Here we can see the massive slide down in bitcoin that’s been happening since November 14th. From its all-time high to the new low from last Friday bitcoin has fallen a total of 84%, which is more or less in line with the level of retracements that the asset has seen in previous cycles.

As we have previously discussed when bitcoin broke below the psychological level of $5,000, the current area of support is between $3,000 and $3,500. So we are very much in this area right now.

A breach to the downside could certainly cause further selling and a lower low. However, a strong push upward from these levels could actually serve to shift sentiment and change the trend.

With the high number of short sellers across various exchanges right now, even a small push up could potentially affect a short squeeze in the market. Imagine such a squeeze on the level that would bring us firmly above $5,000. Such a move would very likely be interpreted in hindsight as the capitulation that everyone has been waiting for.

Guess we’ll need to wait and see how it plays out.

Have a lovely day!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies, as well as trading CFD assets.

Please note that CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan Twitter: @MatiGreenspan LinkedInMatiGreenspan |Facebook:MatiGreenspa

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 138 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Market Overview

U.S. Stocks Rise on China’s Evolving Industrial Blueprint; Cryptos See Modest Progress following Heavy Selling

Published

on

U.S. stocks rebounded sharply on Wednesday as investors shifted from apprehension to optimism on China trade negotiations. Cryptocurrencies stemmed early-week volatility but failed to muster much of a rally as trade volumes dropped.

Relief Rally

Wall Street’s major indexes recovered sharply midweek, shifting the balance back in favor of the bulls for the time being. The large-cap S&P 500 Index climbed 0.5% to 2,651.07, with sectors ranging from information technology to consumer discretionary posting large gains. Five of 11 primary sectors reported gains in excess of 1%. Real estate and utilities were the only laggards on the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 157.03 points, or 0.6%, to 24,527.27. The blue-chip index was up 450 points earlier in the session.

Meanwhile, the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 1% at 7,098.31.

China in the Spotlight

Investors got the go-ahead to bid up stocks amid reports that China was seeking to replace industrial policy that favored domestic companies across a range of vital industries. The new plan will reportedly open the door to foreign companies looking to set up shop in the world’s second-largest economy. As Hacked reported on Tuesday, the policy in question is called the Made in China 2025 plan.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the blueprint was already being re-drawn in an effort to appease the Trump administration amid ongoing trade negotiations. Earlier this week, China agreed to reduce tariffs on U.S. automobiles to 15% from 40%.

Efforts to renegotiate free trade agreements comes in the wake of a face-to-face meeting between presidents Trump and Xi earlier this month. Both leaders held productive talks on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This included a three-month truce not to escalate the trade war.

Cryptos Get Some Relief

Cryptocurrencies saw modest upside on Wednesday, as the majors recovered slightly from their most recent beating that nearly drove values to new yearly lows.

Bitcoin, XRP and Ethereum all recorded gains in excess of 2%, helping engineer a broad-based recovery in the market. Bitcoin was back above $3,500, while XRP returned above the vital 30-cent mark. Looking further down the market rankings, EOS jumped 8% to overtake bitcoin cash for sixth spot on the list. The digital currency was last seen trading just above $2.00.

Most coins ranked in the top-20 traded higher on Wednesday. The combined market cap rose to $111 billion as a result. However, trade volumes fell by nearly $800 million to $12.2 billion, with BitMEX seeing a drop off in activity compared with the heavy selling pressure observed earlier in the week. BitMEX has emerged as a popular venue for shorting bitcoin, which has wreaked all sorts of havoc on the leading digital currency and the market as a whole.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 696 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Forex Update: Dollar Drops, Risk-On Currencies Rally on Trade Optimism

Published

on

Forex Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
EUR/USD 1.1366 0.43%
GBP/USD 1.2634 1.19%
USD/JPY 113.25 -0.10%
AUD/USD 0.7223 0.26%
GOLD 1,249 0.09%
WTI Crude Oil 52.16 0.37%
BTC/USD 3,444 2.74%

The forex market saw another very active session, with the key topics of the recent weeks still making headlines and causing wild swings in the major currency pairs. The Brexit saga took another turn today, as Prime Minister Theresa May faced a no-confidence vote in her party following the delay of the vote on the draft plan in the British Parliament.

The result of the vote is not yet known, but analysts expect the PM to win the vote after she stated that she won’t run for another term in light of the Brexit-related chaos. The Pound has been rallying so far today together with most of the risk-on currencies, with yesterday’s decision to grant bail to the recently arrested CFO of Huawei boosting investor confidence across the globe. President Trump also hinted on progress on the ongoing talks, and that led to a sizable drop in the USD and in US Treasuries, as safe-haven flows reversed.

Technical Analysis

USD/CNH, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar/Yuan pair, which has been crucial for all markets in recent months, broke its short-term uptrend on the news, and it fell to its lowest level in almost a week. The Chinese currency is still weaker compared to its post-trade-truce levels, but it’s also clearly above its October lows, despite the continued weakness in the Chinese economy thanks to the trade-related optimism.

That said, the long-term trend is clearly positive in the pair, and negative in the Yuan, and the credit-related troubles, which will likely weigh on the currency for years, will likely outweigh the topic of trade next year. We still expect the likely trade deal to cause a strong bounce in Chinese assets, but it’s unlikely to change the broader trends especially given the broad bearish shift in global risk assets.

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair is testing the recent break-out level amid the continued Brexit uncertainty, with the 0.90 level being in focus throughout the day. The short-term uptrend remains clearly intact in the pair, and bulls remain in control of the market from a long-term perspective as well.

Strong support is found near 0.8920 and a move towards the 2017 highs near 0.93 is possible in the coming months, even as both currencies remain among the weaker majors, and European growth is clearly weakening.

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading in a bearish wedge pattern amid the mixed price action in commodities, and the Aussie has been acting weak today, suggesting a likely move below the 0.7200 level in the coming days.

The currency is neutral on both time-frames currently, but a move below 0.7165 would mean that the long-term downtrend will resume following the two-month-long correction, that broke the long-standing declining trendline.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold has been showing relative strength today compared to the other main safe-haven assets, which pulled back thanks to the positive developments in the US-Chinese diplomatic spat, and the precious metal successfully tested the recent break-out level.

Gold is very close to confirming a broader trend change, although it needs to stay above $1235, and a move above $1260 would suggest a test of the next major resistance zone near $1300, with strong support, found at $1215 and $1080.

Key Economic Events Tomorrow

 

ChartBook

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/CHF, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 414 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending