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Analysis

Stock Picks: These two stocks are likely turnaround candidates

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The S&P 500 will remain range bound until it breaks out of 2500 or breaks down below 2400 levels. Therefore, we have to be more stock specific in our approach because a few stocks will continue to rally while the index consolidates. As the index lacks momentum, this week, we have chosen a few stocks that are possible turnaround candidates.

Key points

  1. The S&P 500 is range bound, however, individual stocks are likely to outperform
  2. We have adopted a bottom-up investing approach in this article
  3. We believe GPRO and AEO are turnaround candidates

Though risky, such stocks can offer huge returns if our analysis proves to be correct. However, if the company fails to perform according to our expectations, stocks can fall lower. Therefore, you should always strictly adhere to the recommended stop loss. Also, once the stock moves in your favor, please keep trailing the stops higher.

As long as the S&P 500 remains above 2400, we shall continue to look for buying opportunities. We shall become negative on the markets only if the index breaks below 2400 levels. We have identified two stocks that are showing signs of a turnaround, both fundamentally and technically.

Let’s analyze the stocks.

GoPro – (NASDAQ: GPRO), Buy at the current levels, SL 8, Target 15 and 18

GoPro is an action camera manufacturer founded in 2002. The stock has been languishing near its lows due to its weak performance in the past few quarters.

However, the recent results and guidance shows that the company is on a turnaround path. It has recorded higher revenues and better margins in the second quarter of this year and has forecast that it will meet the higher end of its guidance for the third quarter. This shows that demand for their products is increasing.

It has a few top end products lined up for launch, which are likely to boost both the bottom line and the top line of the company. This has rekindled hopes that the company will be able to turn profitable if the new launches are successful. This hope is pushing the stock prices higher.

Additionally, the upgrades by Goldman Sachs from Sell to Neutral, and by Morgan Stanley from underweight to equal weight has also boosted prices. However, a lot hinges on the new product launches. If these fail to generate interest among consumers, the turnaround story will fall flat on its face. Nevertheless, if the products are a success and the company turns profitable, the stock is likely to be re-rated and the investors can reap huge rewards.

Weekly chart

The long-term chart of GPRO looks scary. It has lost about 90% from its highs of $98.47 in October 2014. The stock had fallen to $7.15 levels in March of this year. Since then, the stock is on the mend and is showing signs of bottoming out.

A breakout above $11.1 will start a new uptrend in the stock, which should can take the stock to $15 levels.

Daily chart

The daily chart shows a base formation, with the stock taking support at $7.5 levels. It has formed an inverse head and shoulders bottom, which will complete on a breakout above $11.1. On August 4, the stock had gapped up sharply, however, it could not breakout of the overhead resistance. Selling close to the $11.1 levels pushed the stock back down to about $8.5 levels. However, the stock has again gapped up on September 7 and is again attempting to breakout above the neckline.

We recommend entering 50% of the allocation size at the current levels, keeping a stop loss of $8. The remaining 50% allocation can be purchased when the stock breaks out of $11.1. The minimum pattern target is $15, though the stock can surprise on the upside and even reach $18 levels. Therefore, the risk to reward ratio is favorable.

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. – (NYSE: AEO), Buy at the current levels, SL 9, Target 19

The retail sector in the US is going through a disruptive phase, due to changes in consumer behavior and the growth in online shopping. This has led to a sharp fall in the margins and growth of the brick and mortar retailers. As a result, the whole sector has been punished, plunging stocks to multi-year lows.

However, we believe that a few stocks in the retail sector are showing signs of a turnaround. These companies are adapting to the changing consumer needs and are likely to emerge stronger. One such company is AEO, owner of the American Eagle Outfitters® and Aerie® brands.

The company has maintained positive comparable sales growth for ten straight quarters. This shows that the company’s products are able to withstand the cut-throat competition.

However, the increase in sales has not resulted in higher net profit, because the margins have taken a hit, due to promotional offers.

Nonetheless, AEO has increased its online sales, which now accounts for about 23% of the company’s business. This shows that the company is flexible and can quickly adapt to changing consumer requirements.

Also, the low debt to equity ratio provides opportunities to the management to buyout other struggling retail companies. Presently, AEO has a very limited international exposure, which it plans to expand. This will help diversify its business. With these positives in mind, we want to build a position in the stock before it gets re-rated.

Weekly chart

AEO has remained range bound between $10 to $20 for almost seven years. During this period, the stock has fallen to the $10 levels thrice. All these three occasions proved to be a good buying opportunity because every time the stock rallied back to at least $18 levels. This time too, as the company improves its performance, we expect the same trend to play out. We have a clear stop loss at $9, a level that has not been touched since 2009 and our target objective is $19. This gives us a good risk to reward ratio.

Daily chart

On the daily chart, we find that the stock has broken out of the downtrend line and has moved above both the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This shows that the stock is finding buyers at the $10 levels. Therefore, we can buy the stock in a phased manner, purchasing about 50% of the total allocation at the current levels and buying the rest on dips to $10.5 levels. The stop loss for the trade should be a close below $9 level. On the upside, the stock is likely to rally to $14.5, once it breaks out of $13. Thereafter, it has a small resistance at $16 after which it is likely to rally to $19 levels.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. jgmartin89

    September 13, 2017 at 9:32 pm

    Awesome! Thanks for these. Would be spectacular if you could post more stock picks.

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      September 14, 2017 at 7:54 am

      Hello jgmartin89,

      Thank you for the appreciation. I would certainly try to search for more such stocks.

  2. felix

    September 14, 2017 at 12:37 pm

    Thanks Rakesh, great job!

  3. Rakesh Upadhyay

    September 14, 2017 at 6:19 pm

    Hello felix,

    Thank you for the appreciation.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Lower in Choppy Trading

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Summer conditions have been dominating the cryptocurrency segment in recent days as the majors failed to gather bullish momentum after the oversold bounce of the second half of last week. The technical setup didn’t change much in the top coins, although the consolidation cleared the short-term oversold momentum readings.

Ripple remains the strongest altcoin from a short-term perspective after its strong oversold rally, while Bitcoin is the most stable in the whole segment. That said, as Ripple is still in a declining broader trend, well below the structural break-down level from two weeks ago, traders should be cautious with new positions. Also, Bitcoin failed to move above the $6500 level, so the largest coin didn’t trigger a short-term buy signal, leaving the overall picture overwhelmingly bearish.

ETH/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is still among the weakest majors, and as it failed to stay above $300, and spiked below $275, a renewed short-term sell signal is very close, while the long-term sell signal is clearly in place. ETH cleared the short-term oversold momentum readings, and now a test of the lows near seems likely even as from a longer-term perspective the coin is still stretched on the downside. Above $300 strong resistance is at $335, while the next level of support is near $235.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range in the last few days, as the market settled down near the $6500 level. The coin spiked below the short-term resistance near $6275 in late trading, but with no clear momentum in the market, BTC remains neutral from a short-term standpoint. As the long-term support level near $5850 is still standing, Bitcoin also avoided a long-term sell signal so far, but traders still shouldn’t enter new positions.

Still No Leadership Present as Coins Fail to Join Rally

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While correlations broke down somewhat during the bounce, the conditions for a broader trend change are still not met, as despite Ripple’s strength and Bitcoin’ stability there is no strong evidence of accumulation among the majors. Litecoin and Monero failed to build on the early signs of strength that they showed during the latest leg lower, and the other relatively weak coin, like NEO, Dash, and IOTA continue to show vulnerability.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With all those in mind, the rally in Ripple remains suspicious, despite the spike up to $0.375. The coin is currently trading in a choppy consolidation pattern, stuck between the $0.30-$0.32 zone and the $0.35 resistance level. While the short-term buy signal remains intact for now, a dip below $0.30 would warn of a test of the lows near $0.26.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 321 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Classic on Track for a Bullish Reversal

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Ethereum Classic (ETC/USD) is among the many altcoins that suffered a massive beating this year. While the pair managed to go as high as $47.296 on January 14, 2018, it has been on a downward spiral ever since. On August 14, it registered a low of $10.10 and at that price point, Ethereum Classic has shed close to 80% of its value from this year’s high.

Just as gloom and doom articles started to circulate on the internet, Ethereum Classic came back from the dead. The market is still weak but it is gaining strength. In this article, we reveal three reasons why we believe ETC is on track for a bullish reversal.

Successful Backtest of a Breakout

Many investors believed that Ethereum Classic was headed into even deeper bear territory. It breached support of $12.00 on August 13 and generated another lower low. After all, lower highs and lower lows are the hallmarks of a downtrend. ETC seems consistent in following the textbook definition of a downtrend.

With these developments, it’s difficult to imagine that Ethereum Classic has already broken out of a reversal pattern. However, it did break out of the large falling wedge on the daily and weekly charts. What we’re seeing right now is the backtesting of the breakout.

Daily chart of ETC/USD

In technical analysis, a resistance becomes a support level once breached. The chart above shows the clear breach of the resistance, hence the breakout. Even with the breakout, Ethereum Classic still dropped. This may seem counterintuitive that’s why many are still saying that the market is bearish.

However, the chart clearly depicts that ETC bounced from the support. It is respecting the new support, which means the breakout is still valid. The backtesting was a resounding success.  

Ethereum Classic Indicators Look Strong

We’re bullish on Ethereum Classic because technical indicators are glowing. Ignore the price drop and you’ll see that the market is gaining strength.

A quick look at the weekly chart reveals that bulls are returning in massive numbers. The extreme volume surge over the last two weeks tells us that bulls are buying the market. The last time ETC printed the same volume level was back in February 2018. However, this is the first time the market is printing such heavy volume for two consecutive weeks.

Weekly chart of ETC/USD

On top of that, a long bullish divergence can be spotted on the daily MACD. Also, ETC has bounced from historic daily Stochastic support of 7.00. These indicators tell us that bulls are wrestling the momentum away from bears.

Daily chart of ETC/USD with indicators

Projected Move

ETC/USD may be looking bullish, but that doesn’t mean that the market will skyrocket anytime soon. On the contrary, it would be better for the long-term health of the market for the price to consolidate between $12 – $20 before making a major move up. If a massive rally occurs that works, too. Whatever happens, we believe that the future looks rosy for ETC.

ETC/USD may have bottomed out

The main reason for the optimism is because the market just bounced from its historic support. This tells us that a bottom may be in place and it’s highly likely that ETC will not go anywhere but up.

Bottom Line

ETC may look extremely bearish but a closer look tells us the exact opposite. The successful backtest of the breakout and the flashing of bullish signals from multiple technical indicators tell us that Ethereum Classic is on track for a bullish reversal.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 225 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Ethereum’s Tumble:  ICOs Aren’t The Problem

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Trying to come up with a rational explanation for crypto price movements is a thankless task. Sure, there are several attempts being made by quant jocks to develop a model for valuing coins and tokens.  Most of these that I have reviewed suggest that prices undervalue both the underlying asset or the eventual demand.

In other words, crypto prices are cheap: what a surprise.

This bit of wisdom may be of some comfort to committed long term investors, but it hasn’t translated into higher market prices. A good example of this is Ether. Over the past six months, while Bitcoin has been treading water (down 7%), the price of Ether has been cut in half.  This altcoin was the topic of one of my recent articles called: Has Ethereum Lost It’s Cache?

The essence of this article was to point out how Ethereum, the platform preferred by 75%-80% of all ICOs, was suffering from investor indifference.  When you measure the activity of the top 100 tokens according to CoinMarketCap.com, the US dollar value of 9 of the top 10 most actively traded amounted to an average of $14,000 over the previous 24 hours.  Please keep in mind, trading activity in ETH over the same 24 hour period amounted to $1.8 billion USD.

Bloomberg Speak

One of the more interesting contradictions to my research into Ethereum’s plight comes from an article originating from a highly respected source: Bloomberg News.  The headline reads: “Ether Tumbles as Concern Increases That ICOs Are Cashing Out”.  It is totally defies the data to believe that every ICO cashing out when there is almost no volume to confirm this claim.

Quoting from an August 13th article:

Initial coin offerings using the Ethereum blockchain are seen as one of the main catalysts for sending Ether’s price surging last year. Now they’re being blamed for its decline.

It is quite true that initial coin offerings using the Ethereum blockchain was a catalyst for sending Ether’s price surging last year. It gave investors a reason to buy Ether even if they didn’t tell an ICO from a UFO. But are ICOs the real blame for both the good and the bad of Ethereum price?  I will step aside and let you be the judge.

For starters it is important to remember that ICOs raised $2.4 billion last year while ETH value appreciated almost $70 billion. The concept of ICOs may have fueled blind speculation but the math tells us that real demand was much less.

As for taking the blame for falling ETH prices, consider this notion. At its peak in January ETH was valued at $133 billion.  Currently that value is $100 billion+ lower than just eights months ago.

Using the data from ICOWatchList.com, since the beginning of 2017 ICOs have raised a total of $8.5 billion.  The statistical experts claim the Ethereum platform was used by between 80%-83% of all ICOs, thus reducing the $8.5 billion number to $5.7 billion.  

There is no question that ICOs influenced ETH speculators but that doesn’t begin to explain the more than $600 billion in aggregate losses for all crypto assets.   

Criticism Of Startup Managements

Critics claim that ICOs give startups the ability to raise lots of capital but they are proving weak in management on the funds once they are in their crypto wallet.  There is a certain validity to this since the number of founders with deep experience as CEOs and CFOs is pretty limited. But how can anyone separate insider selling activity from all other volume?

Research website Santiment, which compiles a selection of Ethereum-based projects, estimates startups have spent over 110,000 Ether in the past 30 days. At current prices that amounts to about $33 million.  For sake of discussion, let’s assume this high rate of token liquidation took place each and every month this year. Then use and average ETH price of $700 and that brings the total to $616 million.

There is no question that ICO sellers have contributed to the decline in ETH.  It would even be fair to call it a catalyst that created fear of losing all (FOLA).  Now if we could only quantify fear with an index like the VIX used by stock investors, we would see the major cause of the decline.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 97 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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