Stock Pick: Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is one of the most popular coffee and tea companies in the world. The company founded in Seattle markets, roasts, and sells specialty coffees and teas to retail consumers. In addition to the Starbucks coffee chain, the company also owns and operates popular brands such as Seattle’s Best Coffee, Teavana, and Tazo. As of June 2018, Starbucks Corporation has a workforce of 277,000 employees and sales of $23.5 billion in fiscal 2018.

Technical Analysis of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

For over three years, the stock range traded between $47.40 and $61.40. While many stocks printed new all-time highs during this period, SBUX was stuck in sideways trading. This changed in November 2018 when the stock took out resistance of $61.40 with an above-average move. The price action ignited a rally to a new all-time high of $68.96.

While the stock has been pulling back since, something tells us that SBUX will likely generate a fresh ATH in the next few months.

Technical analysis shows that SBUX successfully flipped resistance of $61.40 into support. This happened early this month as the stock completed the retest of $61.40. The price action is bullish. It tells us that the market is ready to trend higher.

On top of that, we can see a golden cross between the 50 MA and the 100 MA on the weekly chart. The crossover sets up the ideal MA alignment where the 50 MA is on top of the 100 MA and the 100 MA is above the 200 MA. This setup indicates that the market’s uptrend remains healthy.

Fundamental Analysis of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

In addition to our technical analysis, fundamental analysis also backs our bullish view.

The most recent quarterly earnings report of the company beat expert estimates. Q4 earnings data reveal that SBUX posted an adjusted earnings per share of 62 cents versus expert estimate of 60 cents. It also surpassed expert projection of $6.27 billion in revenues as the company generated $6.3 billion. Lastly, the company printed global same-store sales of 3% as opposed to analysts prediction of 2.35%.

On top of the impressive Q4 earnings, the stock’s trailing twelve months price-to-earnings ratio (PE ratio TTM) stands at 26.27. It is still undervalued considering its five-year maximum is 39.60. This tells us that market participants are ready to pay a premium for SBUX shares. Along with the technical setup, it appears that SBUX has some upside potential.

The strategy is to buy on dips as close to $61.40 as possible. As long as bulls hold this level, SBUX will likely generate the momentum to rally to a new all-time high of $70.

The timeline for the target is less than six months.

Weekly SBUX Chart

Monthly SBUX Chart

As of this writing, the Starbucks Corporation stock (SBUX) is trading at $63.57.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: On dips as close to $61.40 as possible.

Target:  $70

Stop: Close below $59.


Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Kiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and funds, as he does his own crypto research and is a Product Manager at Mitre Media. He also has his personal website, where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.