Stock Pick: Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Apple Incorporated (AAPL) is a company that needs no introduction, as it is one of the biggest and most valuable companies in the world. AAPL designs, builds, and markets media devices, computer software, as well as third-party digital content and apps. Some of the company’s popular products include the iPhone, iPad, and MacBook. As of June 6, 2018, Apple Inc. employs a workforce of 123,000 employees with sales of $247.5 billion in fiscal 2018.    

Technical Analysis of Apple Inc (AAPL)

The last several months for AAPL have been nothing short of a disaster. The stock has been in a freefall after posting its all-time high of $233.47 in October 2018. Last week, the stock was down by as much as 10% on the weekly chart as it dropped to as low as $142.

It seems like almost everyone is bearish on the stock. This is exactly why we think that a bounce is in order and the technicals support our view.

Technical analysis shows that AAPL is ripe for a dead-cat bounce. It appears to be respecting the 200 moving average on the weekly chart. Last week’s candle has a long wick below its body indicating the rejection of lower prices. On top of that, AAPL is oversold on the weekly RSI. These signals tell us that the market is ripe for a relief rally.

Also, the 50 moving average on the monthly is acting as support. Throughout AAPL’s parabolic run, the market has always bounced hard after hitting this indicator. The stock’s recent price movement tells us to expect the same reaction.   

Fundamental Analysis of Apple Inc (AAPL)

In addition to our technical analysis, fundamental analysis also backs our short-term bullish view. In other words, the stock remains bearish in the long-term but we can expect a relief rally for now.

Just a couple of days ago, Apple’s CEO Tim Cook issued a warning to investors to expect less than stellar numbers for the company’s fiscal 2019 first quarter. Instead of the projected revenue estimates of $93 billion, the company will likely post revenues of $84 billion. That’s a difference of 9.68%, which is huge if you’re one of the world’s top companies. On top of that, sales of the iPhone have been flatlining for years. This supports our view that the stock is bearish in the long-term.  

However, it is interesting to note that the trailing twelve months price-to-earnings ratio (PE ratio TTM) is 12.48. The stock is undervalued considering that its five-year average is 15.25 while its five-year maximum is 20.70. These numbers tell us that the stock is likely oversold and trading below its actual intrinsic value. This is why we believe that a bounce should be on the horizon.

The strategy is to buy on dips as close to $142 as possible. As long as bulls hold this level, AAPL will likely generate the momentum to bounce to our target of $168.

The timeline for the target is less than three months.

Weekly AAPL Chart

Monthly AAPL Chart

As of this writing, the Apple Inc stock (AAPL) is trading at $148.26.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: On dips as close to $142 as possible.

Target:  $168

Stop: Close below $137.


Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Kiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and funds, as he does his own crypto research and is a Product Manager at Mitre Media. He also has his personal website, where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.