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Split on Both Ends

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3 people have been killed in a tragic and cowardly act in Barcelona. Hours later Spanish police shot and killed five more terror suspects, some of which may have been wearing explosive vests.

More than 100 people have been killed in terror attacks over the past year in Europe and the United States and more than 1000 in the rest of the world. Every one of them is a tragedy and a sin, a harsh reminder that pointless hatred exists in a world which is otherwise very peaceful in many ways.

Most of these incidents have very little affect on financial markets. Institutional investors have grown callous as the real economic implications of such events has waned. Retail investors have all but forgotten that such events used to move markets and so have ceased to trade them.

This attack is somehow different. This attack was claimed directly by the Islamic State. After the West’s numerous victories against ISIS many were starting to think it a thing of the past. The fact that they were able to coordinate this type of attempt, even if it did mostly fail, is a chilling sign that terrorism is probably not going away anytime soon.

@MatiGrenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of August 18th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Though the terror streak in Spain may have had something to do with the losses in the stock market most financial media is pointing to a rumour that was running around Wall Street yesterday that Trump’s top economic advisor Gary Cohn quit his post.

Even though the myth was quickly debunked, it managed to ignite an inner fear on Wall Street. What if Trump’s top advisers, the sane ones, all start walking out on him.

After all, most Americans who don’t fully believe in the President’s abilities at least believe that he will surround himself with good people. What if those good people, many of whom are currently cringing at Trump’s comments over the past few days, started to disappear? Then what would we be left with? Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, and Chris Christie.

This thought alone was enough to send the markets tanking on Thursday and send the VIX volatility index to close near it’s highest levels of the year.

The Dow Jones awoke from it’s slumber and indeed a deep slumber it was in. This was the first session that the DJ30 has moved more than 1% in either direction in 63 trading sessions.

Metals Thrive

Perhaps due to all the market uncertainty and drive to safety or maybe for some other reason, the precious metals are moving forward, many of them coming close to the breakout zone.

The number one mover by far is Platinum, which has gained more than 4% since the start of the month. Here is a graph with several different important metals. Make of it what you will.

Gold has been trading cautiously around $1,300 for a while now. At the moment though, we’re less than $6 short of that mark. After testing this psychological level in April, and in June, will it be able to break through in August?

Inline image 2

European Minutes

The meeting minutes from the ECB yesterday revealed some rather large cracks in the “let’s normalize monetary policy” push that was so apparent around the world last month.

Many central banks were saying that it’s time to start tightening money by raising interest rates and reduce/reverse quantitative easing. Well, the United States seems divided on that front. Though the ECB doesn’t seem divided just yet, they did express concern that the Euro is too high for it’s own good.

The Euro very politely declined after these comments as many thought the ECB might now be inclined to do something about it.

Still, after the massive gains in the EURUSD that we’ve seen so far this year, the pattern on the chart does seem to be a classic bullish shaped flag.

 

Wishing you a wonderful weekend.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 133 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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  1. Andie

    August 18, 2017 at 8:19 pm

    While annoying terrorist attacks is really not that big a deal. In fact, the amount of money defending all of us from terror attacks is out-sized relative to the threat. No to diminish the horror. But I make this point to put this problem in its proper context…Attention bias by those with the most power does not necessarily reflect reality. Of course the temptation is to dismiss this information, which of course proves the point. I’ve translated the stats below into a bias free format so that we can all see a far larger problem that we accept as “normal.” This is STILL a savage planet.

    Three (3) = The number of X murdered every day by Y in the U.S.

    4.8 Million = The number of X in the U.S. who experience physical violence by “Y” every year.

    Meanwhile, the number of American troops killed in Afghanistan and Iraq between 2001 and 2012 was 6,488. The number of American X who were murdered by Y during that time was 11,766. That’s nearly double the amount of casualties lost during war.

    X and Y used to abbreviate mammalian gonosomes

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Still in Deadlock

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The choppy, directionless period in the cryptocurrency segment continues, with no meaningful change in the technical setups of the major coins. While the broader trends are still clearly bearish and sellers remain in control of the market, we saw another minor bullish shift in the past 24 hours, with modest gains across the board.

Most of the top coins are trading in the range of the Monday session, which saw the spike triggered by the turmoil in Tether. Stellar is the apparent positive outlier of the past few days, while Dash, Litecoin, and Ethereum have been the weakest so far this week.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, all of the majors remain above last week’s levels, and especially Bitcoin’s continued stability is encouraging for crypto-bulls here, even as our trend model paints a negative picture of the segment.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin avoided a test of the $6275 level despite moving below its recent very narrow trading range yesterday, with still no meaningful bearish or bullish momentum present in the coin’s market. BTC continues to trade below the $6500 level, and its volatility is very low, even after the move below the previously dominant broad triangle consolidation pattern.

Further resistance levels are still ahead near $6750 and $7000, while support levels below $6275 are found near $600, $5850 and between $5000 and $5100.

Altcoins Little Changed as Ethereum Still Glued to $200

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The weekend has been very quiet for altcoins so far, with even the recently active Ripple settling down near the $0.46 level. XRP is around the midpoint of Monday’ s range but the lack of follow-through after the breakout from the triangle consolidation pattern is a negative sign, and the coin remains on a short-term sell signal in our trend model. Strong resistance is still ahead at $0.51, $0.54, $0.57, while support is found near $0.42, $0.375, and $0.35.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum continues to hover around the $200 price level still being in bearish short- and long-term patterns and the relative weakness of the second largest coin remains a huge concern for the whole segment.

With no evidence of meaningful capital inflows to the market, the outlook is neutral at best, and traders and investors should wait for at least a short-term trend change before entering new positions. Strong support is found near $180, $170, and $160, while resistance is ahead near $235 and $260.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS is also among the relatively weaker coins, and the coin is stuick in a broad Trading range around the $5.35 level since August. Volatility in the coin’s market has been progressively declining, but the vicinity of the bear market low suggests that the long-term downtrend is still intact, especially given the segment-wide trends.

A test of the lows is still more likely than a bullish break-out, with strong support found near $4.50 and key resistance ahead near $6 and $6.5.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Cardano Price Analysis: ADA/USDT is Eyeing a Big Move Out of Current Technical Setup

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  • Positive update from IOHK audit of Icarus by Kudelski Security.
  • ADA/USDT is moving within a pennant pattern formation, subject to breakout.

Solid Icarus Audit reported by IOHK

IOHK recently announced in their forum that an audit was conducted by Kudelski Security, which is an independent and third-party security audit firm. The audit conducted demonstrated that the Icarus project implementation for Cardano looks all good and set to go, without any major problems. However, a few changes may need to be executed. IOHK developed the Icarus code as a reference implementation, for Cardano light portfolio.

The important of “independent audits, like this one was stressed by IOHK. Stating “they are critical for identifying security issues in the Icarus wallet, that may not have been identified by internal audits”.

Furthermore, IOHK has elucidated Icarus as an open source code base serving as a reference for the creation of safer and easier mobile wallets for Cardano. They said, “this guarantees our customers and clients the safest portfolio we can offer.”  Given the benefit of an external audit, the developers can resolve any problems identified during its product launch audit.

Positive Updates from Cardano Founder

Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, was recently commenting on Cardano’s future. He said “We have so many amazing things coming out.”

Mr Hoskinson further added that one of their scientists has flown in from Switzerland. They will be doing a video, which will be the first time they have ever talked about their sharding design that we have for Cardano. Further commenting on other updates, including videos about Shelley and the Rust project.

Technical Review – Daily Chart

ADA/USDT daily chart

ADA/USDT is moving within a triangular pattern or a pennant formation, as seen via the daily time frame. It is narrowing, moving closer to a breakout. Ranging ahead of another drop to the deep south. Although, fundamental developments coming out from the Cardano foundation, remain very much upbeat currently.

Over the past 8 days, the price has been grinding higher, after receiving support at the lower trend line of the above-mentioned pattern. In terms of resistance to the upside, this can be seen at 0.08310000. The upper tracking trend line. Further north, a supply zone is running from 0.09000000-0.09500000. ADA/USDT  last traded here on 23rd September. Finally, support is tracking at 0.071800000, lower part of the pennant, also within a demand area. Another strong buying territory is observed from 0.06500000-0.06000000.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Zcash (ZEC) Up 16% For Week as Sapling Hardfork Approaches

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Privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) gained 16% on its value from Monday through to Saturday as anticipation builds regarding the upcoming Sapling update.

The update, which will require a hardfork, aims to make improvements to shielded addresses, including reducing the time it takes to create them and the amount of memory used when doing so.

October proved to be a productive month for Zcash, with the coin recently being added to the Bitnovo platform, which will see ZEC become available for purchase in over 20,000 physical stores throughout Spain and Italy.

ZEC/USD

In the calendar week leading up to Saturday, Oct 20th, ZEC climbed just over 16% against the dollar, on its way from a valuation of $107.54 up to Saturday afternoon’s peak of $1124.96.

Trade volumes grew steadily in that time, without much violent fluctuation. Instead, overall trade movement rose quietly from $57 million to $83 million, suggesting a more ‘natural’ progression than many spikes of late.

Saturday’s peak marked a weekly high for ZEC, and stands higher than the valuation with which the coin opened the month. With that said, the monthly high of $145 which landed towards the end of September is still some way off.

Sapling Hardfork

The Zcash twitter team have been building up the anticipation all week in the lead up to the Sapling update, and have earmarked October 28th for the initiation date – as per the Saturday’s tweet:

“Activation block 419200 will be mined October 28, 2018 18:21 UTC-05:00 assuming 150 seconds/block.”

The update is expected to improve the ZEC blockchain’s handling of shielded addresses. According to a recent blog post:

“Sapling is a network upgrade that introduces significant efficiency improvements for shielded transactions that will pave the way for broad mobile, exchange and vendor adoption of Zcash shielded addresses.”

More details on the update can be read here.

Zcash Gets Bitnovo Integration

The other big piece of news to come out of the Zcash camp this week is the Bitnovo integration. Bitnovo facilitates in the buying and selling of prepaid cryptocurrency vouchers, which can be filled with a choice of various currencies. According to this week’s tweet:

“You can now purchase $ZEC #Zcash at over 20.000 stores in Spain and Italy with @bitnovo with full privacy and straight to your favorite wallet!”

The firm also deal in refillable cryptocurrency credit cards which users can use in physical stores, while offering up crypto ATM’s to store owners and businesses.

How much the Bitnovo deal will boost Zcash’s numbers remains to be seen, but having the ZEC ticker plastered across products in mainstream stores is sure to increase its recognition.

Besides that, Zcash remains one of the as of yet unlisted coins among the five which Coinbase singled out earlier this year. Basic Attention Token recently pumped on the Coinbase anticipation, and ZEC’s turn may also be coming before long.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 81 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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