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Snapping at the Heels

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I’d like to wish a very happy Bastille Day to all of our clients and colleagues in France.

It’s great to see the country with a strong new president. The decision to invite the new US President as the guest of honor at Europes oldest and largest military parade was certainly a bold move.

For Trump, this is not only a special treat but a much needed Paris vacation away from the house and kids.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures, and graphs are valid as of July 14th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

An impressively boring performance from Janet Yellen in Washington DC has carried stocks onward and upward but not by much.

The Dow Jones rose a total of 25 points for a gain of 0.1%. Asian stocks today are up but also with approximately the same percentages. Nothing to see here folks.

With all this excitement it’s notable that volatility is back near record lows as the deep summer seems to have taken the life out of this market.

Currencies and commodities are pretty flat as well. Gold and Oil are increasingly directionless. Other than a 20 pip move on the Aussie Dollar there really isn’t much to speak about.

Turn to Crypto

Thrill seeking high-risk traders should all be on Crypto by now. Even on this flattest of flat days, Bitcoin has moved 1.39% and Ethereum 4.58%.

Unfortunately, the direction is down. Of the top 10 cryptos, 9 are red. Only Ethereum Classic is up, if you can call a move of 0.09% a gain.

Still, after the large correction that we’ve been seeing over the past few weeks and some recovery yesterday, these declines do seem muted. If the total market cap breaks significantly below $80 Billion or if it surpasses $91 Billion then we could see momentum start to pick up.

Emerging from the Shadow

One of the things I love about British Politics is their Shadow Ministers. For each secretary of the government, the opposition party sets up their own delegate who has absolutely no power but whose main job is to troll their counterpart.

Today Jeremy Corbyn will introduce himself to Europe’s chief Brexit negotiator and inform him that he is ready to take over the negotiations in the increasingly likely event that Theresa May’s government should fall.

Corbyn has been snapping at Ms. May’s heels since the night of the election but this is a whole new level of audacity that adds endless complexity to the already floundering negotiations.

For all the movements in politics and the markets since the Brexit referendum in June 2016, the EURGBP has remained incredibly stable. Here, take a look at this picture perfect range in the market…

Wishing you an exceptional weekend ahead.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be an investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 105 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Altcoins

Crypto Markets: Bloodied But Not Broken

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As legend has it, prize fighter Jake Lamotta returns to his corner at the end of round four of one of his early boxing matches with blood all over and his face was a mess.  Trying his best, his trainer tells Jake, you’re doing great kid, they haven’t laid a glove on you. To which Lamotta replies, well you better keep an eye on the referee because somebody is beating the crap out of me.

Lately, those of us who have a passion for the world of cryptocurrencies are feeling that somebody is beating the crap out of us. Trouble is, it is hard to figure out why.  Just as we are about to land a punch with the SEC declaring that bitcoin and Ethereum are not securities, ditto that for ICOs that do not convey an equity interest in the issuer, whamo prices drop to 2018 lows.  

The Other Side Of The Coin

We read of the recent hack of a tiny South Korean crypto exchange and pundits blame this for helping to push prices lower.  However, the market seemed to completely ignore this week’s progress in the Mt. Gox litigation. There is actually a decent prospect that investors that held $450 million in bitcoin at 2014 prices will be compensated in nitcoin.  If my arithmetic is working right, this is good news considering the 2014 Blbitcoin price was less than $2.00.

Institutionalizing Crypto

While most eyes last week were fixated on falling prices, exchange giant Coinbase let it be known that it was preparing a crypto custody service.  This may appear as a boring administrative step but that is hardly the case. This move is being heralded as the final step in opening crypto to institutional buyers.

Before Coinbase’s solution the problem has been that, despite the highly secure nature of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the wallets where they are stored are a regular target for hackers.

For investors, making cryptos more accessible to institutional investors is every bit as important as adding retail merchants that accept crypto for goods and services.  

Finding Crypto Support From Unexpected Places

Last Friday various media outlets point out how The U.S. Supreme Court mentioned bitcoin and cryptocurrency while issuing a ruling on a seemingly unrelated case. Here is what the U.S. Supreme Court had to say on June 21st in the case of Wisconsin Central LTD v. United States:

“What we view as money has changed over time. Cowrie shells once were such a medium but no longer are, our currency originally included gold coins and bullion, but, after 1934, gold could not be used as a medium of exchange, perhaps one day employees will be paid in Bitcoin or some other type of cryptocurrency.”

In spite of the current oversupply of naysayers, the legacy of crypto is increasing daily. Now even the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is collecting and publishing prices of bitcoin, bitcoin cash, Ethereum and Litecoin. A year ago at this time, such a notion would have been absurd.    

Suspension Of Efficient Market Thinking

For those who have been kind to follow these ramblings know that I am a big believer in the theory of efficient markets.  The key to this theory is that people have all the available information about a particular investment asset and act upon is rationally.  Of course, this is not to say that everybody reads the information in the same way. That is what makes for buyers and sellers.

Lately, there has been a complete suspension of an efficient market for crypto. All coins and tokens have been dumped without regard for fundamentally positive events, some of which we mentioned above.  Since the vast majority of crypto is owned by individuals, the wisdom of the crowd (or in this case mob) psychology prevails. The last time this was the case it was bitcoin alone that lost some 80% of it’s value starting late in 2013.  But that took more than a year to play out. Since the infamous $19,000+ peak, bitcoin has lost 68% so history is getting close to repeating itself.

It may also be a sign that a bottom in prices may be getting closer. The values are clearly there to be had. Now if only those of us who have a longer term view can find other who share a similar view.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 83 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Altcoins

Cryptocurrency Market Update: Correction Deepens as Coin Values Approach 2018 Lows

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The cryptocurrency market approached its lowest level of the year Saturday in a continuation of yesterday’s flash crash that wiped more than $30 billion off coin values.

Market Update

Cryptocurrencies saw their combined market capitalization plunge to a low of $250.6 billion late Friday, according to CoinMarketCap. With the decline, coin values came within $2 billion of their bear-market low for the year.

At the time of writing, the total market cap was $255.9 billion on trade volumes of nearly $14 billion.

It became apparent early Saturday that bitcoin and Ethereum had found support near their Friday swing lows. Both coins are down less than 1% compared to 24 hours earlier.

Bitcoin touched a new yearly low of $5,938 on Saturday but has since consolidated above $6,100 on major exchanges. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap suffered a major reversal on Friday after failing to breach the all-important $6,800 threshold. The coin quickly broke down below $6,500 and has since tested multiple new lows. In terms of immediate support, BTC/USD is now eyeing $5,850.

Ethereum prices bottomed at $450.34 on Saturday, their lowest since mid-April. Ether values were last seen hovering around $470.

Elsewhere in the top-ten, EOS was down another 5% compared to yesterday and was last seen trading at $8.33. The EOS network is battling through a PR nightmare amid multiple delays and controversies.

Bottoming Process Continues

There doesn’t appear to be an immediate catalyst for the latest selloff. As Hacked reported earlier, attributing the declines to the Bithumb hack is misguided given that the market quickly recovered from the negative headlines. (The initial decline was also limited.) Bithumb has already announced plans to compensate users affected by the $30 million heist. The exchange also disclosed that the theft accounted for no more than 6% of its proven reserves.

Cryptocurrencies remain trapped in a long-term bearish cycle that emerged early this year after markets reached their highest level on record. According to Bill Baruch, President of Blue Line Futures, the six-month correction represents a bottoming process that has yet to conclude.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Baruch said that repeated selloffs over the past four months have “wiped out most, if not all, of the over-enthusiasm” and FOMO speculators from the market. While initially bad from the perspective of prices, this means speculative positions are declining. Hacked first noted the decline in speculative positions more than three months ago following the April Fool’s Day selloff.

Analysts have noted that the recent six-month correction mirrors bitcoin’s 2014 retreat, which highlights the boom-and-bust nature of the digital asset class. Against this backdrop, bitcoin and its altcoin counterparts likely need to demonstrate several months of consolidation and stability before the bull market re-emerges.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 465 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Game (GTC) Gains 60% Yesterday and Loses It All Today

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This time yesterday the crypto market was nosediving, and as has become standard practice in such times, links to suicide prevention hotlines were posted on popular crypto forums.

But amid the flurry of red candles stood one proud green column; and a token which showed 60% gains while everything else sank.

GTC tokens started yesterday at a price of $0.125, and by the end of the day its value had surged to $0.20.

However, in the last 24 hours all of those gains have been wiped off the table, and Game.com has even been forced to pay interest on those gains as the token price has since sunk to $0.114 – a price even lower than it started at before the spike.

GTC had spent most of the month within the $0.09 – $0.13 range,

What the crypto market giveth, the crypto market taketh away – or at least that’s how it often seems to play out. The Game.com team may have been slightly too optimistic at this time yesterday, when they tweeted out the celebratory exclamation:

“GTC TO THE MOON CONFIRMED!!!”

Pump and Dump?

Looking at the shape of the GTC’s weekly graph, the natural assumption would be that it has been the victim of a pump and dump.

Game.com’s 24 hour trading volume increased by an astronomical 3500% – starting yesterday with a daily volume of around $2 million, before jumping to $72 million just a few hours ago. That volume has dropped back down to the $40 million range in the last four hours, and continues to fall.

Such movements are not uncommon among tokens lower down on the market cap Top-100. Indeed, Game.com finds itself positioned in 96th spot, with a valuation of $87 million, among other coins which have experienced unnatural market movements in recent weeks, such as Enigma, Funfair and Decentraland.

This time yesterday GTC had broken into the Top-70’s, but now faces the proposition of dropping out of the Top-100 entirely.

All Roads Lead to Tether

Nearly 60% of GTC’s total trades in the last day have come from Gate.io, where $30 million worth of trades were made against USDT. The second highest volume of trades also came against USDT on the OKEx exchange.

Only 14% of the total trades have come against BTC, while ETH trades only account for around 10% of the day’s volume.

Yesterday’s spike marks the highest market valuation reached by GTC since April 22nd, when the value of one token surged to a price of $0.45, which was even higher than the $0.35 valuation achieved during the spike of January.

Game.com aims to become a media hub for the gaming industry. The team’s annoucement states:

“Through the creation and integration of game content, we provide ready-to-go entertainment services and application environment to facilitate the rapid expansion and development of blockchain technology.”

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 12 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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