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Op-Ed

Did Santa Bring a Bad Fortune for Bitcoin?

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Holiday bad season bitcoin

Happy new year to all the readers!

2017 has been a prosperous year for bitcoin as its value skyrocketed steeply throughout the year. However, the wild rise in the coin received a jolt in December. As the Christmas season ushers mirth and merriment for all, it came with a bad fortune for bitcoin traders; after touching the all-time high of $19,496 on Dec. 17, its value declined exponentially, reaching $11,590 on Dec. 22. Evidently, it was the worst week for bitcoin since 2013, resulting in an almost 40% drop from its peak price. Much to investors’ relief, bitcoin showed signs of recovery, with prices climbing gradually, touching $14,000 on Dec. 25.

Bitcoin Witnesses the Worst Week Since 2013

Bitcoin entered into one of the most devastating weeks in December. With the price sliding down to lower than $12,000, the news sent shock waves across the globe as many investors dumped their currencies.  After the record-breaking rise to $20,000, the sudden fall in the price startled traders. This price drop caused a tremendous mess in the U.S. stock market, where the companies who joined hands with bitcoin and invested their funds in the coin received a massive setback.

Such a catastrophic downfall of the overall value of bitcoin has sparked debates over its future, with some traders associating the drop with a consequence of infrastructure related problems and others blaming it for the conflict it has generated in the crypto world. What’s more, the warning from cryptocurrency pioneer Roger Ver, who concluded that Bitcoin could witness “a mass exodus of people rushing for the door”, has caused a lot of turmoil in the market.

Don’t know whether to quit or “hold” through the chaos?  Before making decisions in haste, read up about bitcoin’s forecasts for 2018. 

Rival Coins

On the onset of such confusion, many analysts fear the decline of nitcoin may lead to migration to other rival currencies. Does this decline signal good news for the rival currency? Overall, the rival cryptocurrencies also dropped, as the total value of the market steeped as low as $440 billion.  However, these losses improved the prospects for the smaller coins, with many investors migrating there to mitigate the crisis. Today, bitcoin is looked upon as speculative, leading many traders to migrate to other coins like Ripple, Cardano, etc. So, the altcoins can greatly benefit from this crisis, as traders who enjoy cryptocurrency can switch to alternative assets to avoid cashing out of the crypto market.

Why Bitcoin Dropped So Low?

Bitcoin’s streep drop has also led to a decline in other cryptocurrencies. So, what is the reason behind the 20% drop in the global market? Take a cue from the following points that attempt to summarize top theories that have taken the internet by storm.

The Holiday Season

The end of the year marks some of the major holidays, from Christmas, Hanukkah, to New Year. So this festive season is a critical time for making investments. Most traders strive to withdraw their profits during this time. The cryptocurrency market is relatively new and volatile, so many traders make speculative investments. These speculative investors tend to cash out on early profit and do not “hold” through the turmoil. Since the close of the year is the ideal time for traders to translate their profits into cash, it is not such a favorable time for investments.

Altcoins

After the steady hike in bitcoin, altcoins like Cardano, Qtum, Ripple, and TRON have also witnessed substantial gains. The market value of these coins also affects bitcoin’s price. With traders leaving for altcoins and transferring funds from BTC, the market has become destabilized.

Hacking

A number of crypto exchanges have collapsed this year. At the beginning of the month, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) discontinued PlexCoin due to allegations of ICO scams. In addition to this, the Korean exchange called Youbit was hacked Dec. 20, losing a large percentage of its assets. These events have created a lot of confusion among traders.

BCH-BTC Clash

Following the August fork, many bitcoin investors landed in trouble. With Coinbase supporting bitcoin cash, many traders switched their loyalty. Many amateur traders tend to mix up the two currencies, so the volatility of the BCH market may have planted wrong notions about BTC.  If experts are to be believed, such a clash between BCH-BTC has caused the decline in the price.

The Bubble Popped

Many cryptocurrency skeptics trivialize bitcoin, calling it a bubble. The sudden drop in price has sparked a lot of noise in the market. Does this fall signal the bursting of the bitcoin bubble?  Going by the opinions of the crypto critics, the popping of the bubble anticipates the end of bitcoin as we know it.

The Silver Lining

Following a steep decrease in price, the market is gradually climbing back. The steady rise in the price of bitcoin has prompted traders to seek the forecast for next year. Will bitcoin suffer from this fall or will it continue to surge? The current predicament has given rise to vehement debates. While many critics feel this decline signals the popping of the bitcoin bubble, cryptoanalysts believe it will rebound and rise steadily in the coming year, breaking all existing records. With a large section of traders branching out to bitcoin cash, critics feel the bitcoin price will fall further.

bad holiday season bitcoin

Chart Showing the Rise of Bitcoin

Two theories have become popular on the internet; while some predict it’s time for the bubble to burst, expert analysts state that there will be a possible hike in bitcoin’s value. In fact, bitcoin may even cross $30,000 by the middle of the next year if experts are to be believed. In the thick of all the confusion, there is a silver lining for bitcoin investors, as the figures are creeping back slowly following Christmas.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsHira Saeed is a tech geek girl with a passion to write on latest technology trends. She is the Founder of Tech Geeks community in Pakistan and also runs her copywriting and social media agency, Digital Doers. Follow her on @heerasaeed.




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Op-Ed

Crypto Spoofing & Washing: How Whales are Eating Your Lunch

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When it comes to the cryptocurrency markets, there are two tactics that the whales have been using with killer effects over the past year.

These are order spoofing and Wash trading. These tactics are methods of market manipulation that they have been using to reap outsized returns. These returns have all come at the expense of the retail cryptocurrency trader who fell for the dirty tricks.

In this post, we will take an in depth look at these tactics by analysing previous episodes of crypto spoofing and wash trading. We will also give you information about how to spot these attempts and avoid falling victim.

Before we get onto that, let us start with some of the basics…

What is Order Spoofing?

Quite simply, order spoofing is a form of market manipulation where an individual will create a host of fake orders with no intention of ever having them executed. This is done in order to create a certain perception around where the market is heading.

The individual who is doing the spoofing is hoping that this market sentiment will impact on the price of the asset in question. They will usually have a position in the asset that will benefit from a movement in the price.

Order spoofing is actually a tactic that has been outlawed by the SEC and has been actively prosecuted in the past. However, when it comes to the still unregulated and anonymous cryptocurrency markets, things are not as easy as they seem.

Sometimes order spoofing is combined with other tactics such as stop loss hunting where the trader will try identify where stop orders have been placed.

What is Wash Trading?

Wash trading is the practice of faking volume. This is done by a trader or a group of traders buying and selling their own orders for a particular coin. It gives the market the perception that there is interest in a coin when there isn’t really.

It is also sometimes practiced by shady exchanges in order to create the perception that a great deal of trading is taking place. This will dupe potential retail traders into using the exchange.

Just like order spoofing, this has been outlawed in traditional financial markets since the passage of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) in 1936. Wash trading is also very hard to get away with in traditional financial markets as the exchanges have a number of built in protections to avoid it.

Now that we have an understanding of the basics of the manipulation, let’s take a look at some examples in practice.

Spoofing and Washing in the Wild

You may have come across Bitcoin order spoofing before. You would have observed a large buy or sell wall in an exchanges order books that would have appeared and disappeared seemingly out of nowhere. This is the trader placing and removing the order at the chosen times.

For example, if you take a look at the below order books from the Bitifinex exchange a few weeks ago. You can see a massive buy wall with a large order of slightly more than 11,000 BTC at a price of $7,750.

Recent Buy Wall with Large Order. Image source: Cryptowatch

If you were a cryptocurrency trader who was just observing the order books as an indication of market sentiment, you may perceive this a bullish indicator. It will lead you to buy Bitcoin in anticipation of a rally.

Many other traders will follow in your footsteps and the price will rally in response to it. However, what you do not know is that the Whale that has placed this order actually has a long position in Bitcoin and is looking for buyers where he can offload his position at a profit.

The moment that the whale has secured a certain amount of profit from his spoofing endeavours, he will pull the orders from the book. Consequently, that solid buy wall will disappear in front of your eyes. Below is another image from the Bitfinex order books from late last year.

Buy wall disappears from Order Books. Image source: Bitfinex’ed

On the left is the order books attempting to create an illusion of a Bitcoin buy wall with a large order at $8,900 for 502BTC. However, on the right is the exact same order book a mere 5 minutes later. As you can see, the massive buy wall has just evaporated.

It’s likely that the person who had placed that 502BTC order had no intention of it ever getting executed. In this case, the trader realised that their spoof was not convincing the market and decided to remove their orders.

How would this effect you?

Well, if you thought that this was a bullish sign of movement you could have placed a buy order at $8,899. This would have been executed but you would also have noticed that the market had in fact retreated. The expected bullish sentiment was nothing but a fake.

Now lets take a look at an example of some wash trading.

This is a practice that exchanges can easily manage given the amount of funds that they have on their books. In the below image we have a well-researched example of some wash trading on the OKex exchange for LTC / BTC. Notice anything weird?

OKex Volumes on LTC/BTC Pairs. Image source: Sylvain Ribes

As you can see from the volume, the one thing that immediately sticks out is regularity of it. The volume goes through regular peaks and troughs throughout the day. It is highly unlikely that this is as the result of manual market flows through the books of OKEX.

All one need do is take a look at the LTC order books of another large exchange such as Poloniex or Bitstamp and you will see no such volume irregularities.

When fake volume is created, it makes the market think that there is activity in a coin or exchange when there is really none at all. There have also been other exchanges which have more recently been accused of these tactics.

How to Avoid Falling Victim

When it comes to order spoofing, there are generally quite a few things you can do in order to determine where the activity is taking place and how to spot it.

Firstly, before deciding on an exchange to trade with, you study their market statistics with tools such as cryptowatch. Here, you can take a look at all the exchanges and monitor their books in order to spot irregularities.

What you will be looking for are the large buy / sell walls that are often present on exchanges. If these walls have appeared at a time when there is not that much market news or movement, then it should already have piqued your interest.

What you will then want to do is monitor that buy / sell wall with a particular interest on the large order at the top of the wall (closest to market rates). If this order is pulled quickly after it has been formed then it is likely to have been a spoof and an attempt to manipulate the markets.

When it comes to washing, you should always be cautious when you observe high volume on an exchange that you have not heard a great deal about. This is especially true for those newer exchanges that have only been operating for a few months.

However, if you wanted to be able to spot wash trading as it happens, you will usually see a host of rapid executions at a stable price for a particular coin. Below is an example of some washed trades that were placed in an order book. As you can see, there was a whole host of “wash sells” that were placed at a price of $293.

Numerous washed sell orders on exchange. Image source: Cryptocurrency Facts

If you have observed these in the order books it should have raised suspicion that you could be witnessing a large wash trade.

An Ongoing Challenge

Although these tactics are able to help you by identifying suspicious activity, the malicious traders are also evolving. Nowadays most of the spoofing and wash trading is done with advanced high frequency trading bots.

These bots make use of the high through-put API connections on multiple exchanges in order to move markets more quickly than a manual trader. These trading bots have also previously been identified and given unique and interesting names such as the “Picasso trading bot“.

There is reason to be hopeful though.

The authorities are now quite aware of these tactics and are actively getting involved with enforcement. In fact, the US DOJ has recently released a criminal probe into the market manipulation practices on cryptocurrency exchanges.

As these opaque exchanges face more regulatory scrutiny, they are likely to adapt their procedures to actively stamp out the practice. They could also borrow a number of oversight mechanisms that are currently being used on stock exchanges for example.

Conclusion

Cryptocurrencies have taken off quicker than the traditional financial system and regulators have been able to adapt. While that has led to reams of innovation, it has also meant that malicious actors could take advantage of the lack of oversight.

Order spoofing and wash trading are those market manipulation tactics that are being employed in these “Wild West” markets. Although there are moves afoot to stamp these out, the tactics are evolving and innovating just like the underlying technology.

In the end, only you can really protect yourself from this manipulation. As long as you are aware of what to look for and which exchanges to avoid, you can prevent yourself from being a crypto whale’s “lunch”.

Featured Image via Fotolia.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 3 rated postsNic is an ex Investment Banker and current crypto enthusiast. When he is not sitting behind six screens trading Bitcoin, he is maintaining his numerous mining rigs.




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Decentralization

Cache Me If You Can: Crypto Trading, Decentralized

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Spot exchanges, over-the-counter/OTC trading desks, and futures contracts would likely rank amongst the most popular methods for trading cryptocurrencies between two or more parties.

Despite their popularity though, most of these trading venues utilise centralised infrastructure in at least one area of their operations.

When combined with the endemic security threats which crypto trading services regularly face: centralized fundamental functions are a considerable threat to users who value the privacy of their transactions.

“A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”

Cryptocurrency is still a burgeoning industry, with the number of ICOs and market investment having increased by several multiples even just over the past eight months when compared to the whole of 2017.

Despite this: concerning conventions have already established themselves that challenge the original vision prescribed by Satoshi Nakamoto for Bitcoin.

The enigmatic Satoshi Nakamoto became a legend upon publication of his seminal cryptocurrency white-paper entitled ‘Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System’ (and if you haven’t read it, you really should!).

Since then, the document has served as an conceptual blueprint which has been referenced by a great number of subsequent altcoins: evident by the widespread implementation of Bitcoin’s core mechanics. An example of this is has come to be known as cryptocurrency mining, or the ‘Proof of Work’ consensus algorithm.

P2P vs  P2intermediary2P?

Peer-to-peer (P2P) denotes transactions that are made between two parties without the need for an intermediary to facilitate or authorise the trade.

Mike Orcutt, associate editor at the MIT Technology Review wrote in April 2018 that:

“The whole point of using a blockchain is to let people—in particular, people who don’t trust one another—share valuable data in a secure, tamperproof way…

“One supposed security guarantee of a blockchain system is ‘decentralization.’ If copies of the blockchain are kept on a large and widely distributed network of nodes, there’s no one weak point to attack, and it’s hard for anyone to build up enough computing power to subvert the network”

Whilst this is true for many blockchains and their associated blocks for decentralized cryptocurrencies: most middle-man’ who process trades and transaction utilise a centralised system known as an ‘order book’ upon which future transaction and trade values are calculated.

In June 2009, mere months after Nakamoto’s Bitcoin paper was released to the world, a cross-departmental team from Stanford University published a related and highly recommended investigation into the contemporary status of the order-book.

The authors state that:

“most markets are order-driven, where any market participant is free to provide liquidity by submitting a buy or sell order. Submitted orders are amalgamated by price to create a limit order book. The[re is a] rule driven execution of orders in these limit order books and [also] extensive data that is available for order driven markets.”

With  a centralised order-boook; all the data pertaining to transactions: such as receiver and sender addresses, value of tokens, and dates could be all-but-publicly accessible in the case of a hack or successful unwanted intrusion.

Peer-to-Peer Trading: What Can Be Done?

One solution which we have seen numerous examples of are organisations which claim to be ‘decentralized exchanges’.

On the 9th of August 2018, for example, well-known yet controversial ex-China based cryptocurrency exchange Binance launched a pre-alpha build of their highly anticipated decentralized exchange which they call ‘DEX’.

Conversely, Binance has been subject to more than their fair share of negative press and public feedback as of late and earning trust for their future projects will be no easy feat. They have to contend with hackers, pundits, and a 5.9/10 ranking on Trustpilot.

Another notable release comes from blockchain development platform Stratis, a competitor to Ethereum’s ‘platform for platforms’ and ranked in 50th place on CoinMarketCap as of writing.

The ‘Breeze Wallet with Breeze Privacy Protocol’ launched on the 1st August 2018, and it is a means of facilitating pure peer-to-peer, user-to-user, fully decentralized transactions. As a result, Breeze hopes to introduce centralized intermediaries to the realm of obsolescence, by way of a token-tumbling protocol called ‘TumbleBit’.

If you know of any more projects which have been making recent progress – please let us know in the comments section!

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Op-Ed

Disrupting the Cloud: ANKR Network

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Since the creation of bitcoin and the introduction of the “Proof of Work” (POW) algorithm, many have been concerned about the vast use of computing power and energy and their negative side effects. Currently, cloud computing is projected to be a trillion dollar market, yet it is monopolized by some of the largest tech conglomerates in the world. Only giants in the likes of Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud can afford the high human capital cost and upfront server costs to run a successful cloud operation that spans the globe. However, the aforementioned companies tend to charge the customer with a higher margin of cost.

New developments in blockchain technology aim to resolve these issues by improving the efficiency and effectiveness of cloud computing. Being an innovative solution to this computing and consumer problem, Ankr Network brings the benefits of decentralization to cloud computing and balances value between buyers and sellers via crypto economics, Oracle service and distributed computing.

Ankr Network

Ankr Network is an innovative platform, which aims to create a resource-efficient blockchain architecture for a distributed cloud computing system and an easy-to-use infrastructure for the building of business applications. Ankr is the first cloud computing solution to leverage both blockchain and trusted hardware of Intel SGXs. The SGX hardware will allow developers of applications to protect data from unauthorized access and modification and preserve the confidentiality and integrity of information.

Technical solutions include:

  • Consensus Algorithm Proof of Useful Work (PoUW)
  • Platform for distributed cloud computing (DCC)
  • Oracle integrated service
  • Structural support for sidechains

The consensus looks like this:

Anrk upgrades mining with its consensus “Proof of Useful Work” (PoUW), which provides a sustainable block structure. Specifically, PoUW directs power and computing capacity which was used on hashes in POW algorithms such as bitcoin for processing tasks provided by businesses and consumers on the blockchain. Therefore, one can say Ankr upgrades mining to a higher level, allowing equipment holders to receive a financial incentive for block creation and real-world tasks processing.

To explain this better, consider the following: the golden standard algorithm is one where the nodes on the blockchain require:

1) That tasks performed to solve problems is actually quantifiable work;

2) That the processing of these tasks provides some form of value to any party on the network

The Ankr Network appears capable of achieving this gold standard. Alternatively, existing POW in networks such as bitcoin and Ethereum only achieve the first point – nodes use computing power and energy to prove that work was done (but such amount of work is wasted without any utility).

Ankr solves this key technical limitation in bitcoin and Ethereum by including a second point in its consensus algorithm, thus making all the work done by nodes directed on the processing of tasks that could bring added value utility to the network participants.

Ethereum processes all smart contracts on one chain in a serial sequence, which bottlenecks throughput and dramatically reduces the usability, especially when there are large contracts with complicated data on the chain. Plasma is a protocol to solve the scalability issue by building a tree structure of blockchains, where various application chains (Child or Plasma Chains) are connected to a single root chain (Main Chain). Plasma chains can allow applications to handle their specific smart contracts transactions on side chains, thus balancing potential overload of the network.

The efficiency of the main chain can be significantly improved by offloading a number of transactions from the main chain to Plasma chains, especially if proper incentives are given to Plasma operators. Currently, Oracle solutions exist separately from the blockchain framework and are limited in compatibility. Ankr proposes a user-friendly universal AP (application programming interface) I for each child chain to connect to off-chain entities. Existing business can build decentralized autonomous applications on the child chain with powerful computing power and native data feed service provided by the main chain.

 

The Native Oracle (NOS) service provides an authenticated data feed by using both cryptographic primitives and a trusted execution environment (TEE). Thanks to a standardized API for transferring data from existing data sources like websites, NOS allows customers to simplify business in the real world. Basically, this means that blockchain can allow integrating smart contract execution with data sources through a protected gateway.

Intel SGX

Intel SGX (Software Guard Extensions) is a new set of instructions that permits execution of an application inside a hardware enclave, which protects the application’s integrity and confidentiality against certain forms of hardware and software attacks, including hostile operating systems. This lowers entry barriers for miners and provides security and privacy.

Distributed Cloud Computing (DCC) Platform

As internet technology advances, massive amounts of data including text, audio, video, etc. have been created. However, most of this data is neither organized nor relevant to each other. Processing the data in a serial sequence (traditional blockchain) becomes less and less resource efficient and can’t be tolerated by the rapid velocity of business development.

Ankr overcomes these shortcomings through its DDC platform, which enables P2P transactions. Miners will provide their computing power to support the blockchain, as well as sending surplus power for cloud computing calculations.

A P2P network allows application owners and individual users (i.e., requesters) to rent computing power from other users (suppliers). Currently, the cloud computing resources in popular blockchain networks such as bitcoin or Ethereum are exclusively controlled by the centralized cloud service providers and are subject to rigid operation models. A decentralized cloud computing platform can incorporate a blockchain-based payment system, which can allow for direct payment among operators (requesters), sellers (suppliers) and software developers.

Now, we will cover what other projects in this field are doing in comparison to Ankr as a reference project.

Golem

Users of Golem are only incentivized for cloud computing and Golem is using third party computing containers like Docker.

SONM

This project is very similar to Golem, but with a different application field. Golem is focused on rendering, but SONM is focused on the adoption of existing architectures (currently server hosting).

IExec

This project is also similar to Golem and SONM, but its application focus is decentralized cloud computing in specific research applications.

In comparison with the projects above, users of Ankr have different incentives that come from mining, transaction (or smart contract) and cloud computing. Also, Ankr does not use third party platforms for computational power; instead, it uses the computing power of miners.

In my opinion, an additional limitation of Golem, SONM, and IExec is that they have based their development on traditional computing architectures, which are used in data centers, thus limiting their potential computing power and scope of tasks. The reason lies in the fact that data center architecture is working on one technical parameter, which is not optimal for distributed computing where the topology of each device changes frequently and will result in a costly overhead in data transfer and decrease the stability of the network. Ankr technology allows bypassing such limitations, which results in a wider applicability and scope of their network.

Overall, if the Ankr network team can create a network that uses PoUW to reach consensus by applying all the computational energy to useful use and not wasting it, then cloud computing services as Amazon Web, Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure are likely to face serious competition soon.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.9 stars on average, based on 10 rated postsVladislav Semjonov has a legal and financial background. He has been involved in crypto space since early 2017 in both ICO advising positions in several ICO consultancy firms, and as an ICO analyst for VC. He began contributing for Hacked.com in April 2017.




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