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Market Overview

Reacting to the Buck

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Hi Everyone,

Extreme market action continues. What began earlier this week as a rout in the Turkish Lira has quickly spread throughout all markets and now it seems to be affecting the cryptos as well.

All the major cryptos fell over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin managed to hold the most steady and Ethereum bore the brunt of the selling.

This article on Bloomberg indicates that the reason for this could be that some ICO’s are cashing out.

However, there is a need for further analysis backed up by more in-depth intel before a final conclusion can be drawn.

The reality is that more money is flowing into ICOs than out of them. According to data collected from CoinDesk, $14.3 Billion has been raised so far in 2018. Nearly triple the $5.7 billion raised in 2016 and 2017.

On the ground, we continue to see positive headlines that show a clearly developing crypto industry. So the fact that token prices are falling could very well be a reaction to external factors like the rapidly rising US Dollar, as we’ll explore below.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Volatility is Back
  • Gold < $1200
  • Crypto Reaction

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of August 14th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

Looks like we’re getting a bit of a rebound in the markets today as the markets are mostly reversing many of yesterday’s moves.

Looking at the Lira, it seems we’ve backed slowly away from resistance at 7 Lira to the Dollar (USDTRY). We should be hearing from Turkish officials including Erdogan later today.

Stocks are up across Asia and Europe. All except China who is processing some sour economic data.

No Safety

Perhaps the strangest thing about the current market action is the lack of safe haven sentiment.

We can see clearly that volatility is rising…

Yet, gold and other precious metals continue to fall. Yesterday, Gold dropped below the important level of $1,200 for the first time since January 2017.

This is a rather clear indication that whatever volatility is happening it’s not freaking anybody out.

Crypto Reaction

Though I couldn’t say with absolute certainty that the meltdown in emerging market currencies is what’s getting the crypto market down lately, it is the most likely explanation given the current market conditions

As the United States moves to tighten its economy and avoid strong inflation, they’re taking action that is strengthening the Dollar. Because the US Dollar is the global reserve currency, many smaller economies rely heavily on a stable exchange rate with the greenback.

So too, as the Dollar is being seen as a stable store of value at the moment, there really isn’t much incentive for people to store their money in digital assets.

Still, it does seem that we’re seeing some of the excitement spilling over onto the blockchain. In this chart, we can see the TPS (transactions per second) is rising rapidly over the last few days.

As well, we can see a noticeable spike in exchange volumes during the entire market action yesterday.

Many thanks to you for reading and to everyone sending me your questions, thoughts, feedback, and insight. It’s extremely valuable.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan | Twitter: @MatiGreenspan | LinkedIn: MatiGreenspan | Facebook:MatiGreenspan

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today

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1, Pound Resumes Rally on Strong Employment Report

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Great British Pound reacted well to the likely delay of the Brexit process in recent weeks, and today the currency defied the risk-off shift and rallied back towards the 1.30 level against the USD. The better than expected British Employment Report, which showed the strongest wage growth in a decade, outpacing inflation despite the long-term weakness of the Pound.

While the currency gained ground, British equities followed the global trends and finished lower, threatening with a resumption of the broader declining trend. All eyes are still on the Brexit saga, but should the extended deadline scenario prevail, the short-term bullish trend could continue in the pair, even as traders should keep the considerable event risk in mind when trading the Pound-related pairs.

2, Oil and Stocks Slide as Risk Assets Suffer amid Renewed Trade Worries

Johnson & Johnson, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the losses in risk assets have been limited yesterday, due, in part at least, to the US bank holiday, today, we saw heavy selling across the board. Oil ran into a wall near the resistance zone that we pointed out yesterday, and the crucial commodity fell back to a $52 per barrel handle with regards to the WTI contract.

Stocks got hit hard on reports that this week’s round of meetings between the senior US and Chinese officials has been canceled, with the issues of Intellectual Property and deeper Chinese economic reforms being behind the setback. We argued several times that these ‘soft’, hard to control issues are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, even in the case of a formal agreement, so while we expect wild swings on trade-related headlines, the structural, credit-related issues will drive Chinese assets.

3, Johnson & Johnson Misses on Guidance Despite Earnings Beat

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The pressure on stocks intensified following Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) earnings report, with the 2019 guidance disappointing investors. While the previous quarter was a positive surprise from the healthcare giant, as far as the bottom line is concerned, the outlook for the consumer segment cast a shadow on the broader market even as the company’s core Pharmaceutical business continues to shine.

Shares of the company are down by around 2%, and after the closing bell, IBM’s (IBM) report will be in focus, as the struggling tech giant will also report earnings. IBM has seen its share price cut in half as its growth stalled in recent years, and even a small positive surprise could propel the stock higher following the market-wide decline of the recent months, but it’s unlikely that the broader downtrend will be broken anytime soon.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Market Overview

Dow Plunges After Opening Bell as Democrats Set to Reject Trump’s Proposal to End Government Shutdown

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U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on Tuesday, as Democrats wasted little time talking down President Trump’s new border-security proposal to end the partial government shutdown. Oil prices also faced a sharp correction as China growth woes rattled investors.

Weak Open

All of Wall Street’s major indexes traded lower after the opening bell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by as much as 188 points. The Dow 30 index was last down 154 points, or 0.6%, at 24,552.12. The broad S&P 500 Index declined 0.7% to 2,652.82, with ten of 11 primary sectors trading lower. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.8% to 7,101.06.

U.S. markets were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. U.S. futures prices were down across the board in the holiday-shortened session.

The last full trading session on Friday saw gains of 1% to 1.3% for the major indexes.

Oil Slides

The S&P 500’s energy index declined 1.8% at the start of trading Tuesday as oil prices faced a brisk selloff. U.S. and international crude prices were down more than 2% on worries that China’s slowing economy will impact energy demand.

As Hacked reported on Monday, China’s economic growth slowed to 6.6% in 2018, the lowest rate of expansion in 28 years.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark for U.S. crude futures declined $1.33, or 2.5%, to $52.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international futures benchmark, declined $1.41, or 2.3%, to $61.32 a barrel.

Senate to Reject Trump’s New Proposal

Senate Democrats this week are expected to reject President Trump’s new proposal to end the partial government shutdown, which has now entered day 31. With another employee pay deadline over the horizon, Republicans and Democrats are under pressure to resolve the impasse, which has shattered the previous record for longest in history.

On Saturday, President Trump laid out a new plan for funding his proposed border wall that included key compromises on DACA and immigrants with Temporary Protected Status. As we reported on CCN, the proposal included a three-year extension for immigrants that fall under either category, as well as additional funds for urgent humanitarian care, additional border agents and drug protection technology.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi immediately rejected the proposal, and has since gone on to call it a “nonstarter,” according to The Wall Street Journal. As WSJ notes, the proposal is unlikely to receive the 60 votes necessary to pass in the Senate and wouldn’t survive the Democrat-controlled House.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. Charts via TradingView and Barchart. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 743 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Market Overview

10 Year Challenge (Market Edition)

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Hi Everyone,

Today kicks off the annual forum in Davos. This lavish gathering in the snowy mountains of Switzerland brings together the world’s most wealthy and famous, to try and tackle the problem of inequality.

Ten years ago, in the throes of the financial crisis, the theme for the Davos convention was “what must industry do to prevent broad social backlash?”

Since then, the world’s most fortunate have seen their fortunes soar even though global GDP and average working wages have remained stagnant. This interactive chart on Bloomberg tells quite a tale.

Last year I had the pleasure of attending this event and as a crypto enthusiast, I was quite pleased to see a vibrant showing of activists and blockchain builders. On the main stage of the World Economic Forum, however, the attitude towards distributed ledger technologies was more tepid.

This year there will be a panel called Building a Sustainable Crypto-Architecture, which is scheduled for tomorrow at 10:00 AM CET. This will be particularly interesting as it pits known bitcoin skeptics Gillian Tett from the Financial Times and Ken Rogoff from Harvard against the founders of Circle (the Goldman Sachs backed owners of Poloniex Exchange) and BitPesa.

You can watch all of the WEF keynotes and panels at this link. There are several that look interesting and can give some good investment insights.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Shutdown: Day 32 | Days to Brexit 66
  • 10 Years Market Challange
  • Crypto Decade

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of January 22nd. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

The clock ticks slowly on our two headline political snafus. In an apparent response to the weak Chinese GDP data, Xi Jinping has urged for calm and warned of financial risks.

Never missing an opportunity to gain the upper hand, President Trump has also responded to the Chinese figures.

Needless to say, global stocks are playing defense today. The China 50 is leading the pack with modest declines of 1.36%.

Ten Year Challenge

If you’re not familiar, the 10-year challenge is a new internet fad that has people posting a pic of themselves 10 years ago next to a current glamour shot. Though many have criticized this as just another excuse to post selfies, I thought it’d be fun to look at a few markets. 🙂

As far as the stocks are concerned the last 10 years have been stunning. Here’s a quick reminder of what the Dow Jones looked like in 2009 Vs today.

Eat your heart out Reese Witherspoon!!

As far as Emerging Markets are concerned, time was not as good to them as it was in the USA and other developed economies. There have been some good times and some bad but overall is aging nicely. Kind of like Morgan Freeman.

Gold was in the thralls of a massive bull run in 2009. Since its peak in 2011 though, it’s looking more like Soulja Boy’s Headband.

Crude oil looks exactly the same. Just like Mariah Carey.

King Dollar had just one radical change. For better or worse depends on your personal politics and point of view, kind of like the White House.

Chart credits for this segment go to tradingview.com

What about Crypto??

10 years ago, bitcoin was just two weeks old. So we can easily compare this one to Jordan Pickford who’s gone from a punk child to a full-blown superstar stud.

Kidding aside, we have an entire new emerging and thriving industry now that’s grown up around bitcoin and blockchain.

The kicker for us at eToro, is this post about our CEO and Co-founder at eToro Yoni Assia who wrote this post about income equality through the introduction of a new currency to help bridge the gap between the rich and poor.

10 years, nearly to the day, we’ve introduced the Good Dollar project as a spinoff of eToro for the betterment of economic justice.

Let’s have a remarkable day ahead!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies, as well as trading CFD assets.

Please note that CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Best regards,
Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: @MatiGreenspan Twitter: @MatiGreenspan LinkedInMatiGreenspan |Facebook:MatiGreen

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 144 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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