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Price Prediction for Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum: Crypto Bloody Tuesday Sees Falls that Shake Convictions

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  • The BTC/USD hits a low of $4,212 and eyes $3,500 in the next few days.
  • The XRP/USD panics below $0.41 but recovers $0.45 amid high uncertainty.
  • The ETH/USD marks a trough at $125 and could move below $100.

If Hollywood creates the script of what’s happening on the Crypto Board, they wouldn’t have done any better. When it seemed that the story had a hero called Ripple, untouchable and immutable to his environment, the scene begins where the saving hero on which the civilization of Cryptocurrencies depended falls and exposes its weaknesses.

After a first attempt by the BTC/USD to the $5,000 price level through the American session was rejected, a new attempt hours later has broken forcefully that level and reached $4,600.

We saw the same with ETH/USD, once drilled at the psychological level of $150, it reached $137 in the Asian session.

In the short term, the indicators that we will see in the detailed analysis invite us to think about a possible short-term rebound in the next 24-36 hours. This rebound would initiate the process of rotating the charts in the daily range. However, we are going to see new lows, levels unthinkable two weeks ago.

My personal opinion is that at that point, with practically all hands weak and empty, the strong hands will enter the market with full steam, buying a selection of assets that will probably leave some cryptocurrencies in the mud and lift others’ heads. However, the Crypto board will have changed hands, or whales, forever.

BTC/USD 240-Minutes

The BTC/USD is currently trading at the $4,432 price level, drawing a chart that looks very scary. The drop is extreme and except for a slight recovery after piercing $5,000 yesterday, the comeback didn’t last long, and sellers have come back strongly.

The plummet takes away any level of buying if there is anyone still in the market trying to catch falling knives. With this violence, it is most likely that any rise is merely a closing of short positions than a movement of real accumulation. The price reductions are in their early hours, and there are still a few days left until Black Friday.

Below the current price, the first support for the BTC/USD is at the price level of $3,930 (support for price congestion). The second support awaits at $3,250 (price congestion support) and the third support level at $2,900 (price congestion support). These are levels that represent wild drops in percentage terms and that, if they occur, would raise a whole series of comments about the very survival of this market.

Above the current price, the first resistance to consolidate at the current price level is $4,400 (price congestion resistance). If the BTC/USD manages to hold and close above this level, it will begin to consider it as a support point for the first considerable pull-back of the current bear storm. The second resistance level is $4,918 (price congestion resistance) and it may stop the brief bullish attempt done yesterday. The third resistance level at $5,381, is a confluence of the long-term down channel baseline, a price congestion resistance and a few dollars above the EMA50.

The MACD at 240-Minutes shows a profile of strong bearish inclination and with lines very separated. Momentum continues to be strongly bearish, and it may still take quite some time to see a rebound of some intensity.

The 240-Minute DMI shows how bears have absolute control of the situation. They mark levels above the 50th level of the indicator, a level considered as a healthy trend. On the other hand, the bulls give up and move for minimum standards that, if only for extremes should react to the rise. The ADX responds to downturns by increasing its trend level to levels not seen since December 2018.

XRP/USD 240-Minutes

Ripple is the hope that holds firm the conviction that there is a future in Cryptocurrencies at this time, and seeing it plummet has raised doubts throughout the Crypto ecosystem.

Below the current price, the first support is in the long-term trend line coming mid-September at $0.44. The second support at $0.429 (price congestion support) would take the XRP/USD out of its bullish scenario and into the same bearish chaos scenario as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The third support at $0.413 (price congestion support) would be the last hope for a fall to $0.367 (price congestion support).

Above the current price, the first resistance is at the price level of $0.48 (trend line leading the movement from lows). If the XRP/USD can exceed this level, the second resistance at $0.505 (price congestion resistance). The third resistance level is at $0.584 (price congestion resistance) holds the key to a strongly bullish scenario that would aim to exceed $1 quite easily.

The MACD at 240-Minutes has cut down the zero line, currently losing that important support and forcing to consider bearish movements in the near future. The opening between lines is minimal for now. If the price were to rise it would leave a divergent formation of a strong bullish component. On the contrary, price declines would deepen the bearish side and we could see really strong declines.

The 240-Minute DMI shows us that bears are taking advantage of the ADX line, which would indicate a continuation of the price decline. The bulls decrease their activity but far from the minimum levels. The ADX reacts to the recent declines but in trend levels considered as moderate.

ETH/USD 240-Minutes

The ETH/USD is currently trading at the $132 price level after leaving the minimum fall in support of the $125 price level indicated a few days ago. I don’t consider that the drop is going to stay here, but it is possible that from this level there will be a small rebound in the next 24-36 hours.

Below the current price, the first support in the already commented level is at $125 (support for price congestion). The second support at $94 (price congestion support), would break the mythical barrier of $100 and would cause the headlines of the best horror movies. However, this could only be the headline since terror would be in the third level of support at $80 (price congestion support). In the edited FXStreet Chart you can see more levels.

Above the current price, the first resistance is at $155 (price congestion resistance). The second resistance is at $170 (price congestion resistance). Finally, as a third resistance, the EMA50 at $178 meets the fourth resistance at $180 (price congestion resistance).

The MACD at 240-Minutes shows a very downwardly inclined profile with very open lines. This structure protects the continuity of the descents at least for today.

The 240-Minute DMI shows us a situation similar to that seen in the BTC/USD. The bears go to maximum levels while the bulls retire and show us no intention to enter the game. For its part, the ADX reaches levels not seen since December 2018 and support the continuity of direction and strength of the movement.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Sideways Drift Continues but Sellers Still in Control

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While the bounce on Monday gave some hope to crypto bulls that last week’s plunge was just a correction in an ongoing broader counter-trend move, so far, we haven’t seen meaningful follow-through. That means that the bearish short- and long-term trends are still dominant in the segment and sellers are clearly in control of every major top coin.

Also, while volatility is relatively low, correlations are still elevated, and volume patterns are bearish as well, so our trend model remains on sell signals with regards to the overwhelming majority of coin on all time-frames. Traders and investors are still advised to stay away from entering new positions, as we have no evidence the bear market is over, and at least the test of the lows is likely in the coming months.

That said, a quick recovery above the primary resistance levels would be a positive sign here, but until we see signs of technical strength, the defensive approach is warranted as bearish risks remain very high here.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin’s relative stability is still the only positive sign among the top coins, but BTC also lacks bullish momentum and it failed to leave the close vicinity of the key $3600 support level. The $3850 resistance is out of reach, for now, and given the clearly bearish long-term setup, traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here.

A move above that level would be a positive sign for bulls, with further zones between $4000 and $4050, and near $4450, but we still expect a move towards the support levels near $3250 and $3000 in the coming weeks, even if a broader bottoming process might already be underway.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Ethereum spiked higher again towards the $130 resistance level today, the move failed again and bulls failed to make technical progress, with the recent low still being in danger. A sustained push above $130 could still signal a failed break-down pattern, but the lack of bullish momentum points to a continuation of the decline.  Key support is found near $120 and between $95 and $100, while further resistance is ahead at $145, $160, and near $180.

Altcoins Unchanged and Bearish After Choppy Day

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The volatility compression continued in all of the major altcoins as well, but the broad selling pressure is still apparent in the segment. Litecoin failed to get close to the primary resistance zone near $34.50 despite the early-week rally attempt, and it continues to threaten with a move below the key $30-$30.50 support zone.

A breach of support would likely trigger a move towards the $26 level, with the oversold short-term momentum readings now being cleared in the market of LTC. Further strong resistance is ahead near $38 and $44 and with support found near $23, and traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has been showing signs of relative weakness again today, after the brief period of stability and the technical picture continues to be negative on all time-frames, and our trend model is also on short- and long-term sell signals. The $0.32 price level is still in focus, and we still expect a move below $0.30, with strong support found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3550 and $0.3750.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash remained among the relatively weaker majors as well, and it still hovering around the $70 price level after bottoming out close to $67.50. A test of the bear market low near $56 seems very likely in the coming weeks, and only a move above the strong resistance zone between $76.50 and $80 would change the short-term outlook for the coin.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Bitcoin’s Year of Accumulation

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Although bitcoin looks poised to extend its January losing streak to five consecutive years, 2019 will be a year of slow accumulation for the virtual currency, according to Eric Thies, a well-known technical analyst. In the meantime, traders can expect the bear market to reach its climax once a new yearly bottom is breached.

Accumulation Year

In promoting the view that 2019 will be an accumulation year for bitcoin, Thies directed our attention to the major bear trend that emerged in 2015. That was the year bitcoin exhibited significant volatility, albeit in a lower range. Following the latest breakdown in price, bitcoin could be in for a similar trading pattern this year.

“Similar to 2015, 2019 may be the year of accumulation,” Thies said, according to CCN. This means bitcoin is likely to be an attractive investment in $2,000-$4,000 range – even with wild swings priced in.

Bitcoin’s volatility regime has changed dramatically in the last two months. Following a period of unprecedented calm, volatility surged to nine-month highs in the back end of December. Volatility will likely remain a factor for the foreseeable future as the technical tug-of-war continues. More on this: Bitcoin Maintains Narrow Trading Range as Recovery Faces More Resistance.

Circulation Grows

That bitcoin will remain highly volatile is supported by the recent influx of digital currency into circulation. Anonymous owners of dormant bitcoin wallets have been trading with greater frequency since October, which means their activity may have predated the November price collapse.

Data from Flipside Crypto recently showed that long-dormant bitcoin wallets have accounted for about 60% of the market’s circulating supply in the last 30 days alone. What’s more, active bitcoin supply has increased by a whopping 40% since the summer. This, of course, feeds into higher expected volatility.

If that’s not enough, consider that 1,000 addresses hold 85% of available bitcoin. As Bloomberg recently noted, many of these holders remained on the sidelines during the 2017 bull run and its subsequent collapse. If dormant accounts are becoming active again, there’s good reason to suggest that the whales are looking to re-enter the market.

Not Overnight

It’s reasonable to expect that bitcoin will become more attractive at lower prices, especially as more institutional investors access the crypto market in the coming year. But that doesn’t mean the accumulation will happen overnight. Previous bear cycles have taught us that downtrends can stretch for 1-2 years before any noticeable accumulation takes place. The only difference this time is there are more people involved, and more eyeballs on the price.

Additional reading: Crypto Winter and the Fed?

To demonstrate bitcoin’s potential at current levels, and why 2019 will be an attractive year to boost one’s holdings, it’s worthwhile to reflect on the cryptocurrency’s yearly lows rather than its highs. Below is a quick snapshot of bitcoin’s yearly bottoms stretching all the way back to 2012:

  • 2012: $4
  • 2013: $65
  • 2014: $200
  • 2015: $185
  • 2016: $365
  • 2017: $780
  • 2018: $3,200

Traders tend to focus on bitcoin’s lack of new all-time highs as evidence that the market is going nowhere, but these figures clearly show that BTC is a solid investment at almost any period in the last seven years (of course, this isn’t the case if you bought during the peak of 2018).

Make no mistake: technical analysis and market sentiment clearly show there is more pain ahead for bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. But as the long-term value proposition continues to hold, there’s strong reason to believe we haven’t seen the last bull market. In the meantime, 2019 prices could represent a unique buying opportunity for those who missed the boat two years ago.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 738 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Bitcoin Maintains Narrow Trading Range as Recovery Faces More Resistance

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Bitcoin’s price held within a narrow range on Wednesday, as the latest corrective bounce failed to spur a bigger buying trend despite the presence of larger than normal volumes.

Stuck in a Range

The bitcoin price is currently trading at $3,673.66, little changed from 24 hours ago, according to aggregate data provided by CoinMarketCap. Over that stretch, BTC traded between $3,620 and $3,698.

At last check, bitcoin was trading hands at $3,614 on Bitstamp. The hourly momentum indicators show very little room for recovery in the short-term, with the RSI falling below 50.

Trading in BTC approached $5.6 billion on Wednesday, with BitMEX accounting for 14.3% of total daily transactions. The Hong Kong-based exchange announced this week that it is halting U.S. accounts amid regulatory scrutiny. It remains to be seen how whether this will have a noticeable impact on bitcoin derivatives trading. Relevant reading: As Race for Bitcoin ETF Heats Up, SEC Identifies Cryptocurrency as a Top Priority in 2019.

Bitcoin made a significant move higher at the beginning of the week, which averted a potentially bigger downfall that could have exposed the cryptocurrency to new lows. Immediate support is eyed at $3,550, the so-called “GTFO” level. The bulls must maintain this level to keep short-sellers at bay.

Bitcoin Sees Backwardation

As Hacked recently reported, bitcoin futures on the CBOE have entered backwardation, which means later contracts are trading consecutively lower than earlier expirations. Typically, futures markets operate in a contango state, meaning distant contracts trade incrementally higher than earlier expirations. In contango markets, futures prices are higher than the spot price, which means that speculators are willing to pay more now for a commodity at some point in the future than the actual price of that commodity when the contract matures.

Backwardation sometimes occurs when a market enters a periodic state of volatility. It’s not uncommon for energy futures or even CBOE VIX Volatility futures to enter backwardation at various points during the year.

In the case of bitcoin futures, volumes remain too low to have a significant impact on the overall market. While BTC circulation has spiked since the fourth quarter began, futures trading on CBOE and CME remain only a small drop in the bucket.

That being said, bitcoin has seen a sharp rise in volatility over the last two months, which eroded a period of unprecedented stability in digital currency trading. Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility index, courtesy of bitvol.info, is currently 4.57%. This figure conveys considerable uncertainty about the size of changes in bitcoin’s future value. The volatility index was as low as 1.02% at the start of November.

The following chart highlights bitcoin’s 30-day volatility index going back three months. As you can see, the November selloff upped the tempo of expected moves in bitcoin’s spot price.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 738 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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