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Predicting Bitcoin Returns with Momentum Effect and Investor Attention Effect

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Yale economists have proposed a new model for predicting bitcoin’s future valuation based on historical price data and Google search queries. According to the researchers, momentum and investor attention are the two key factors that can enable market participants to accurately predict future returns.

Predicting Bitcoin

In a newly published study called “Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency,” economists Aleh Tsyvinski and Yukun Liu claim the Momentum Effect and Investor Attention Effect can accurately predict the future valuation of leading cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple XRP.

The Momentum Effect

The Momentum Effect essentially states that cryptocurrency prices are more likely to continue rising following a significant breakout. For example, a large rally in bitcoin one week is likely to generate continued growth the following week. In this vein, momentum applies to cryptocurrencies in the same way it does to stocks, bonds and currencies, though the size of the rallies are usually much larger tha conventional assets

“Momentum is actually something simple,” Tsyvinski said in an interview with CNBC. “If things go up, they continue to go up on average, and if things go down, they continue to go down.”

The researchers believe that the best strategy for making money in crypto is to buy an asset after its price has already spiked and sell it just seven days after purchase. Using this strategy, a trader can still make an average of 11% on bitcoin even if they bought it following a 20% increase.

Tsyvinski explained that the Momentum Effect was stronger for bitcoin than for Ethereum or XPR, although still statistically significant for the latter two.

The Investor Attention Effect

The level of interest and hype around cryptocurrencies also plays a significant role in predicting price movements, the researchers claim. The Investor Attention Effect measures Google and social media search trends for terms like “bitcoin” “Ethereum,” and “cryptocurrency.” The higher the search results, the greater the chances of rising prices.

“For weekly returns, the Google search proxy statistically significantly predicts 1-week and 2-week ahead returns,” the report says.

This is not unlike what Hacked has reported several times before: Google search trends for crypto keywords are positively correlated with rising values. In June, we reported that Google searches for “bitcoin” had fallen to nine-month lows, a sign that first-time buyers were no longer flooding the market.

Google search trends gave “bitcoin” a perfect score of 100 back in December, around the time that BTC was trading at all time highs. Our view at the time was the following:

“Bitcoin’s bull market was largely predicated on the arrival of new traders buying cryptocurrency for the first time… Without new first-time buyers entering the market, bitcoin could face a prolonged lull period characterized by sideways movement and false breakout patterns.”

That outlook has largely panned out in the midst of multiple peaks and troughs.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 538 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Altcoins

Waves Coin Spikes 21% Before Levelling Off; Gets Cold Storage Treatment

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Waves is one of the few coins to have marked up clear growth for the day, with a 21% spike coming in the early hours of Monday morning before the price eventually dropped and evened out.

Waves Price Peaks Overnight

Late on Sunday, August 12th, WAVES coins were priced at $1.89 after climbing from a fifteen month low of $1.64 on August 8th. Over the course of the early hours, the coin underwent a 21% surge which carried it to a valuation of $2.30 – a price not seen for almost two weeks.

Over the course of the day a rebound occurred and the price is back down to the $2.00 range. That’s a huge drop over the course of the day, but it still leaves Waves in the green over twenty-four hours, with net gains of around 6%.

Volumes peaked just as the sell off from the $2.30 level finished up, with $22 million WAVES trades passing through the exchanges today. That’s almost a monthly high for the coin, with $23 million only coming once in the last thirty days, on July 18th.

BTC Dominance

Given the relative strength of Bitcoin compared to most popular altcoins today, it’s unsurprising that the most abundant trading pair is WAVES/BTC, with traders taking advantage of the recent year long low that Waves hit on August 8th.

To be precise, the recent low of $1.64 hasn’t been touched since the middle of May, 2017. That’s a 15-month low for Waves, and given the actions of buyers in the last twenty-four hours, it seems to be a valuation deemed worthy of saving. In the short term at least, as evidenced by the 15% sell-off once Waves hit the $2.30 mark earlier this morning.

Cold Storage Treatment

The Waves platform seems to be growing its own fruit after the announced addition of Waves to Cold Storage Coins (CSC) today. CSC is a provider of cold storage ‘coins’ – essentially hardware wallets in the form of metal cryptocurrency coins.

CSC were recently launching their own token on the Waves platform – Organic Token ($ORGT) – when the team decided to give Waves the cold storage treatment. As said Rob Gray, CEO of CSC:

“So, we were working on Organic Token and we realized no one in the cold storage space had stepped up to support Waves.”

Waves marketing head, Phil Eryushev celebrated the development, stating:

“Besides scalability and speed, ease of use has always been among the top priorities for Waves. Solutions provided by Cold Storage Coins will make user experience at our platform even more fascinating.”

Waves recently revamped their DEX – decentralized exchange – and the platform saw an increase in the number of users shortly afterwards. Today the Waves Decentralized Exchange is only the tenth most popular source of WAVES trades, with $314,000 worth emanating from there – around 1.85% of the daily total.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 37 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Crypto Psycho: Fear Could Be Our BFF

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Crypto prices continue to confuse.  For all the logic related to supply and demand, the reality these days continues to be that prices are being determined by emotion.  

The fundamental news these days is mixed. For example, take todays mention of Bitmain, one of the most valuable cryptocurrency companies, is expecting a September filing of an IPO for as much as $18 billion. That would eclipse even Facebook back in 2012.  The buzz swirling around Bitmain is about more than just crypto. Even so, $18 billion makes a loud and positive statement about investor interest.

On the other side of the digital coin, we have declarations from guys like Ken Bianco, who happens to be part of the US Treasury Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.  Last week he spoke in threatening terms of how the US intends to enforce its AML/KYC regulations virtually everywhere in the world. If this sounds a little bit like an infamous German gentleman with an odd looking mustache, you have your history right.

In between these two extremes, of course, there has been lots of information each day that correlates closely with theoretical supply and demand for crypto, none of which has made a bit of difference as crypto prices continue to tumble.

Nevertheless, an objective point of view holds that there is a disconnect between what is happening in reality and crypto prices.

So unlike last year when prices were rising for no other reason than the fear of missing out (FOMO), today they are falling in the face of the fear of losing all (FOLA).  Maybe it’s fear that is the key to the future.

FOLA Could Be Our Friend

On many occasions we have mentioned how important traditional investors have used relative value.  We continue to believe that global stock and bond markets are overvalued using metrics like price earnings ratios and other financial measures.  While quantitatively speaking, this point is absolutely right, it hasn’t resonated. Since the beginning of the year, for example, investors in the Nasdaq Composite has enjoyed a 13% gain.

This gain comes even though Facebook, the fourth biggest stock in the cap-weighted Nasdaq Composite, has been a dud.  By comparison, over the exact time last year investors in the Nasdaq Composite experienced a 12% gain on the way to a bountiful 25% full year return. Overall, these folks have had very little reason to be unhappy, or fearful.

Tipping Point Could Come From Trump

Credit Datatrek for keeping a thumb on the pulse of the outside world.  Here are some insights from a recent poll on the fears of institutional money managers.  The two most important issues in late March were: unpredictable political events in Washington DC and Trade/tariff disagreements between the US and China.  Some 70% of respondents were very concerned or somewhat concerned about these issues.

Since then, things have only become more critical.  Washington’s confrontational foreign relations strategy is shaking global currency exchange markets.  In the last two weeks the Russian Ruble has lost 12% against the US Dollar. At the same time the US Dollar has increased over 40% against the Turkish Lira.  

While it can be argued that Turkey is of little importance to the global monetary system, Russia is not. Turkey plays a key role in the Middle East and any instability in that area is enough to strike investor fear that is reflected in energy, inflation and currency markets.

In earlier times, this scenario pointed investors in the direction of gold.  This is not happening. At the time of this writing, gold had just broken through $1,200 having fallen 8% this year.  In the face of the Turkish situation, this signals a loss in confidence for gold in a region of the world with a historic close connection to the metal.

Only Theory So Far  

Now if a strong correction were to take place in stock prices or an equally strong rally in crypto, there would be evidence of investors taking advantage of the relative value here. Unfortunately, at this moment that is not taking place. Bitcoin prices are down marginally but sellers continue to pound most altcoins. Until this changes, crypto prices are being driven down by FOLA.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 95 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Tether Mystery Grows Following Latest Spike in USDT Circulation

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Controversy surrounding Tether continues to swirl after the startup released $50 million worth of new tokens on Bitfinex, a leading digital currency exchange run by the same chief executive.

Tether’s New Issuance

Evidence of Tether’s new token issuance was first reported by Omni Explorer, a data provider for the cryptocurrency market. According to the website, a fresh batch of 50 million USDT tokens were sent to Bitfinex on Saturday, marking the third such transfer this month.

With the latest influx, Tether’s circulating supply has swelled to 2.407 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. USDT is capitalized at just over $2.4 billion, down roughly $300 million over the past month.

USDT has become a critical component of the cryptocurrency market, with daily trade volumes rivaling bitcoin’s. Much of the growth in volume occurred over a five-month stretch beginning October 2017. According to The Wall Street Journal, USDT-based trading volumes would grow 15-fold through March 2018.

On Monday, trades involving USDT were valued at $4.9 billion compared with $6.7 billion for bitcoin. Bitfinex was by far the largest market, accounting for more than 43% of total USDT transactions.

Controversy Grows

Investors have grown weary of Tether’s burgeoning supply over allegations that the company is printing tokens to artificially inflate the bitcoin price. As Hacked reported earlier this year, Tether’s circulating supply surged at the height of the bull market, including a 30% spike between December and February.

Last year, Tether and Bitfinex were subpoenaed by federal regulators over the nature of their relationship and to determine whether Tether truly has the dollar reserves to back its tokens. As a fiat-backed stablecoin, Tether must maintain $1 in reserves for every token it has in circulation.

In addition to claiming ties to the dollar, Tether has emerged as a “crypto bank” for blockchain businesses struggling to obtain traditional financing and liquidity services. That said, the company has yet to produce an audit showing it has the purported reserves to satisfy its stablecoin status.

Last year, Tether hired Friedman LLP, a New York account, to audit its reserves. However, the accounting firm was swiftly released before a final audit was completed, raising fresh suspicion of manipulation. The company has since hired Freeh Sporkin & Sullivan LLP, a New York law firm created by former FBI Director Louis J. Freeh. The law firm believes Tether has full dollar backing.

An anonymous source running tetherreport.com claims the stablecoin engineered nearly half of bitcoin’s price rally in 2017. According to the website, Tether prints more tokens when the bitcoin price falls.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 538 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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