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Pre-Market: Trade War Re-Escalates as US Announces New Tariffs

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The US authorities fired another shot in the tit-for-tat trade war with China overnight, when Trump announced a planned 10% tariff on $200 billion of products. The announcement sparked a sharp reversal after yesterday’s rally, with Asian and European equities feeling the pain more once again.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The trade war trends, depreciating Chinese Yuan, falling Chinese equities and industrial commodities, and a rallying Dollar, are back “on” today, with US stocks still outperforming most of their global peers according to futures markets.

The divergences are actually widening between the major benchmarks, as today, European and Asian stocks are down by over 1%, while even the largest daily US loser, the Nasdaq is down by less than 1% in pre-market trading.

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 is in a clear long-term uptrend although the range that developed after the February crash is still intact, with the upper boundary found just above the 2800 level that the key benchmark got close to yesterday.

The all-time high is ahead at near 2875, some 4% above the current level, and despite the strong global divergences and the lofty valuations, a rally to test the highs is possible in the coming weeks, but those with a longer-term investment horizon should stay away from US equities here.

The economic calendar was virtually empty in Asia and Europe today, while the US PPI came in slightly above the consensus estimate before tomorrow’s key CPI index. Treasury yields are lower across the yield curve, with some notable flattening thanks to the trade war escalation, with long-dated treasuries still seeing strong demand despite the ongoing rate hike cycle of the Fed.

Dollar Bounces Back after Correction

USD/Yuan, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Us Dollar is getting close to is one-year high against the Yuan after the intervention-triggered correction, and with the Turkish Lira and the Brazilian Real also under pressure today, another leg of the emerging market currency crisis could be ahead.

Risk-on currencies are broadly lower, with the Aussie quickly reversing most of its recent correction, and the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar also edging lower before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, which will be announced just after the Wall Street open.

Copper Futures, Daily Chart Analysis

Commodities were hit by the early strength in the Dollar with losses across the board in the segment. Crude oil retreated off yesterday’s rally highs, gold dipped below $1250 again, while the rout in copper continued. The metal hit another 12-month low and got close to the key support zone near 2.725 that is a good candidate for a more durable bounce after the 20% decline.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 465 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Cryptocurrencies

6 Upcoming Events That Could Trigger a Price Pump for These Cryptocurrencies

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The kind of fundamental developments that sent a coin to the moon in 2017 had already started to lose their potency by the time 2018 came around. As the year wore on, we started to see partnership announcements and technical developments go unnoticed, when once the mere rumour of them was enough to positively impact the price of a coin.

And while 2019 will probably see an extension of this trend, I can’t help but think of the number of times I’ve seen a coin pump 50% in a week, only to go and check the project’s Twitter page and see that they’ve just implemented a new tech update.

By that time I’m too late, and whatever anticipation was being speculated on has turned into news, and is now being sold.

So in the spirit of experimentation, here’s a few upcoming technical updates due in the coming weeks.

Aeternity (AE) – First Mainnet Hardfork

Aeternity has three hardforks scheduled over the next year as it completes its migration from Ethereum. The date for this hardfork is only a few days away, but I include it on the basis of Aeternity’s previous volatility, exemplified in this chart from the last seventy days. Volume has been climbing all through February, from $10 million to $50 million.

Hardfork Date: February 20th

IOST (IOST) – Mainnet Launch

Just over a week away from mainnet, the IOST token price has shown signs of life with 4% growth in the past seven days. A summary of what the IOST mainnet promises to bring can be found here in a tweet from co-founder Jimmy Zhong.

Mainnet Launch Date: February 25th

 

Ethereum (ETH) – Constantinople Hardfork

The previously delayed Constantinople hardfork is scheduled for the end of the month. Block rewards will be reduced from 3 to 2 ETH, and the difficulty bomb will be delayed for another year, among other tweaks.

At time of writing ETH is up 8% for the week, with Constantinople ten days away.

Hardfork Date: February 27th

CyberMiles (CMT) – 15 Million Users’ Data Uploaded to Blockchain

A huge migration is set to take place at the end of February as the 5Miles mobile app uploads all of its customers accounts onto the CMT blockchain. Once launched, 5Miles clients will be able to transact independently across the chain. 5Miles is a ‘mobile marketplace’ where users buy and sell various items and services.

Launch Date: February 28th

Theta Token (THETA) – Mainnet Launch

Theta Token is another project set to leave Ethereum for its own mainnet. A look at THETA’s weekly chart shows a token at just about break even, but zooming out to the monthly view reveals that something has been building with THETA for a while.

Mainnet Launch Date: March 15th

QuarkChain (QKC) – Mainnet 1.0

QuarkChain was one of the darlings of the ICO period, and big things were expected from this highly rated project. Big things might still be on the horizon, and we may find out more about QuarkChain when the mainnet lands at the end of March.

Read more on what’s in store for QKC fans in 2019. The coin price has been falling all quarter, and all month. But that trend reversed for the first time this week as the coin regained 6% of its value. Volume jumped from $1 million to $6.8 million in the last few days.

Mainnet Launch Date: March 31st

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 145 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Altcoins

Zcash Price Analysis: ZEC/USD Bears Back in the Driver’s Seat Despite Coinbase Incentive Program Support

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  • ZEC/USD is back within the control of the sellers, as the price has dropped around 9% within the past five sessions.
  • Coinbase announces that Zcash (ZEC) is supported on their learning incentive program. Users can earn $3 worth of ZEC by merely watching educational videos on the privacy coin.

ZEC/USD: Recent Price Action

The Zcash price has been cooling over the past few sessions after the bulls failed to sustain decent upside momentum seen earlier in the month. ZEC/USD has fallen over 9% in the previous five sessions, after hitting $56.75 on 13th February. The mentioned print was the highest seen since 14th January, with the buyers since losing ground.

ZEC/USD was moving within a descending wedge pattern formation; this was observed from 24th December up to the breakout on 8th February. As part of this mentioned push north, the price went on to gain a whopping 15%, rallying for five consecutive sessions. It was the longest run higher that observed since mid-December 2018.

Zcash Added to Coinbase Incentive-Driven Learning Program

U.S cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced Zcash has been added to its incentive program. Users will be able to learn about the privacy-based coin while having the benefit to earn from this program. The reward will be $3 worth of ZEC for watching the educational videos about the cryptocurrency.

Coinbase tweeted from its official account, “Earn $3 worth of Zcash with a new Coinbase Earn opportunity today. Check out the Earn ZEC page to view educational videos about Zcash and earn some along the way!” Users can sign up and start the program to receive their cryptocurrency rewards upon completing the educational series.

The program launched at the back-end of 2018, initially just featuring 0x. Earlier this month, Coinbase added Basic Attention Token (BAT) to the program. Zcash now being the latest is a massive step towards greater global awareness for ZEC by being supported on one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.

Technical Review – ZEC/USD

ZEC/USD daily chart.

As detailed earlier, the price is heading south, which will likely see the above-detailed descending wedge pattern retested. Support is currently tracking around $47.00, which is where the upper trend line of the descending wedge sits. The mentioned support area coincides with a demand zone, seen from $50.00 down to $46.50. ZEC/USD last traded down at these lows in December 2018, a period when the general market bottomed, after heavy bouts of selling.

Should this support fail to provide necessary comfort, then a strong wave of pressure to the downside may likely be seen. The price may be forced to trade within the complete abyss, an area that has not been observed before. Unknown territory trading is something that is occurring across the industry within this current bear market.

Given the breach of the wedge pattern, there isn’t too much in the way of resistance until the $60 region. A supply zone tracks from $62 up to $65; the price saw several rejections here in January of this year and in December 2018. Further to the north, another likely target would be where the price peaked at the end of 2018, $73.95.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Ethereum Price Analysis: Volume Spike Pushes ETH/USD to Monthly Highs

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Ethereum’s price rallied to one-month highs on Sunday, overcoming a soft landing for the broader cryptocurrency market and reaffirming the view that ETH has already bounced from a major bottom. A look at the fundamental picture, specifically ETH block transactions, suggests Ethereum isn’t out the woods yet with respect to the bear market.

ETH/USD: Toward Monthly Highs

Ether peaked at $139.50 on Sunday, according to Bitfinex. It was last seen trading at $130.78, having gained 4.9%. That marks the highest level since mid-January. As a result of the gain, ether moved into overbought territory based on the hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Outside highly-anticipated Constantinople upgrade, which is scheduled later this month, there was no immediate catalyst for Ethereum’s breakout on Sunday. This suggests that technical trading was dictating market flows. ETH remains well supported above $120; the breakout north of $125 suggests further gains are likely.

Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum’s trade volumes have surged 25% to $3.5 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Ether is presently on course for its highest 24-hour turnover since Feb. 9.

At current values, the Ethereum network has a total market capitalization of $13.4 billion, placing it second among active blockchains and $1.2 billion higher than the next biggest project, XRP.

Bottom is Well Protected

Since plunging to the mid-$80 range in December, Ethereum has undergone a doubling in price followed by a downward correction that threatened to expose the $100 support. Since the beginning of February, ETH has rallied more than 20% to current levels.

As Hacked recently reported, a tremendous pump was needed to keep Ethereum from further capitulation in December. Between Dec. 10 and Dec. 24, institutions and cryptocurrency whales picked up 11 million units of ETH to prevent further losses. In other words, they absorbed more than $1.5 billion worth of selling pressure at the time.

Between Nov. 19 and Dec. 24, these large players probably accumulated somewhere around 24 million ETH. This should serve as a strong backstop to any further attempt to push prices lower.

Block Transactions Plunge

Although Constantinople is expected to solve many of the technical challenges facing Ethereum, the number of transactions on the network has been in free fall since early 2018. According to data from Etherscan.io, block transactions have plummeted more than 90% over the past 13 months.

As the following chart illustrates, the highest number of transactions ever recorded occurred on Jan. 4, 2018 to the tune of 1,349,890 units. That figure fell to 381,151 units on Feb. 10, 2019.

This figure appears to be positively correlated with the sharp drop in Ethereum’s exchange volume over the same period. Combined with the fierce competition from Tron and EOS in the market for decentralized applications, its apparent that Ethereum could face further pressure in the short term. While this is unlikely to produce new lows, it certainly means that the bear market is here to stay.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 771 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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