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Analysis

Pre-Market: Stocks Bounce as Europe Returns but Sellers Still in Control

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Global equities are having a relatively quiet and stable day considering the fireworks of yesterday’s illiquid and bearish session. As a large number of markets were closed, US assets led the way lower, but the initial contagion to other asset classes faded, and European stocks opened the holiday-shortened week only modestly lower, staying well above last week’s lows.

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Equities drifted higher in pre-market trading as well, but the first hour of trading saw a Nasdaq-led dip on Wall Street. For now, the market is less volatile than yesterday, but the major indices are definitely not out of the woods and the trend is undoubtedly bearish.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As Amazon remains under attack by Trump, the Nasdaq continues to weigh on the broader market, while the Dow is holding up relatively well after briefly breaching its February low yesterday. Traders are still facing a tough decision, as we noted last week, as new the setup is not ideal for new short positions, while buying equities would still be a counter-trend trade here.  We continue to lean bearish until a confirmed short-term trend change.

Dollar Higher Again Despite Risk Rally

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex markets are showing a mixed picture after yesterday’s risk-off turn, as the Yen fell substantially amid the stock rebound, gold got pushed lower too, but the Dollar’s short-term strength is still apparent.

The Canadian Dollar and the Aussie, the currencies that led risk assets in recent weeks are diverging, adding to the mixed technical signals, as oil is trading off its lows from yesterday. With industrial metals also holding up, the overall picture is slightly better for bulls than last week, as bearish momentum is weakening in most asset classes.

Featured image from Shutterstock            

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 280 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Crypto Markets: Bloodied But Not Broken

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As legend has it, prize fighter Jake Lamotta returns to his corner at the end of round four of one of his early boxing matches with blood all over and his face was a mess.  Trying his best, his trainer tells Jake, you’re doing great kid, they haven’t laid a glove on you. To which Lamotta replies, well you better keep an eye on the referee because somebody is beating the crap out of me.

Lately, those of us who have a passion for the world of cryptocurrencies are feeling that somebody is beating the crap out of us. Trouble is, it is hard to figure out why.  Just as we are about to land a punch with the SEC declaring that bitcoin and Ethereum are not securities, ditto that for ICOs that do not convey an equity interest in the issuer, whamo prices drop to 2018 lows.  

The Other Side Of The Coin

We read of the recent hack of a tiny South Korean crypto exchange and pundits blame this for helping to push prices lower.  However, the market seemed to completely ignore this week’s progress in the Mt. Gox litigation. There is actually a decent prospect that investors that held $450 million in bitcoin at 2014 prices will be compensated in nitcoin.  If my arithmetic is working right, this is good news considering the 2014 Blbitcoin price was less than $2.00.

Institutionalizing Crypto

While most eyes last week were fixated on falling prices, exchange giant Coinbase let it be known that it was preparing a crypto custody service.  This may appear as a boring administrative step but that is hardly the case. This move is being heralded as the final step in opening crypto to institutional buyers.

Before Coinbase’s solution the problem has been that, despite the highly secure nature of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the wallets where they are stored are a regular target for hackers.

For investors, making cryptos more accessible to institutional investors is every bit as important as adding retail merchants that accept crypto for goods and services.  

Finding Crypto Support From Unexpected Places

Last Friday various media outlets point out how The U.S. Supreme Court mentioned bitcoin and cryptocurrency while issuing a ruling on a seemingly unrelated case. Here is what the U.S. Supreme Court had to say on June 21st in the case of Wisconsin Central LTD v. United States:

“What we view as money has changed over time. Cowrie shells once were such a medium but no longer are, our currency originally included gold coins and bullion, but, after 1934, gold could not be used as a medium of exchange, perhaps one day employees will be paid in Bitcoin or some other type of cryptocurrency.”

In spite of the current oversupply of naysayers, the legacy of crypto is increasing daily. Now even the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is collecting and publishing prices of bitcoin, bitcoin cash, Ethereum and Litecoin. A year ago at this time, such a notion would have been absurd.    

Suspension Of Efficient Market Thinking

For those who have been kind to follow these ramblings know that I am a big believer in the theory of efficient markets.  The key to this theory is that people have all the available information about a particular investment asset and act upon is rationally.  Of course, this is not to say that everybody reads the information in the same way. That is what makes for buyers and sellers.

Lately, there has been a complete suspension of an efficient market for crypto. All coins and tokens have been dumped without regard for fundamentally positive events, some of which we mentioned above.  Since the vast majority of crypto is owned by individuals, the wisdom of the crowd (or in this case mob) psychology prevails. The last time this was the case it was bitcoin alone that lost some 80% of it’s value starting late in 2013.  But that took more than a year to play out. Since the infamous $19,000+ peak, bitcoin has lost 68% so history is getting close to repeating itself.

It may also be a sign that a bottom in prices may be getting closer. The values are clearly there to be had. Now if only those of us who have a longer term view can find other who share a similar view.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 83 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Plunges Below $6500 as Heavy Selling Resumes

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The cryptocurrency segment is having another very negative day after a calmer period, as selling pressure intensified yet again. All of the major coins turned sharply lower, with the laggards of the recent period, Litecoin, Monero, and Dash confirming their downtrend and the relatively stronger coins also taking a beating.

The total capitalization of the segment dropped below $270 billion, and from a long-term technical standpoint, several currencies are in precarious positions. With no clear news catalyst behind the move, technicals are playing a very important role, and last week’s lows will likely be in focus in the coming days.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is still relatively weak both on the short- and long-term time-frames, and it dropped back to the $6275-$6500 zone that has been acting as primary support during the recent leg lower. Given the importance of the long-term zone between $5850 and $6000, a break below $6275 could set up a crucial test in the coming days. For now, traders still shouldn’t enter new positions, while investors should hold on to their coins as the bullish secular trend is still intact.

No Hiding From the Selloff as Altcoins Broadly Lower

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With the weakest coins leading the way lower again, new swing lows are likely in the majority of the coins, although there is still hope for bulls that a major long-term breakdown can be avoided. Ethereum fell below $500 after touching the declining short-term trendline, and it remains in a bearish trend, even as it’s still in a much better technical position compared to BTC, holding up well above the April lows, and being further away from last week’s swing low as well.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

 That said, we remain negative regarding the short-term outlook for the second largest coin, and traders shouldn’t enter new positions here.  Above the $500 level, strong resistance is ahead between $555 and $575, while primary support is found at $450, with further zones near $400 and $480.

BNB/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

There are no real hiding places for crypto investors from the current selloff even as Binance Coin is still holding up relatively well, within a clear uptrend and above crucial technical support.  That said, as we warned before, given the broad downtrend in the segment, traders should be cautious with new short-term positions.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 280 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Italy Spooks markets Again as Stocks Remain Under Pressure

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European stocks Led the way lower today despite a bullish start in Asia, as equities gave back their gains when Daimler published a surprising profit warning, which was deeply affected by the recent trade war developments, reigniting fears of a tariff-driven downturn in global trade.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Old Continent got into more trouble later on, when two anti-EU officials were named in Italy, resurrecting fears of a clash between the systematically crucial country and the core of the Eurozone. Italian yields rose in European trading, and although they are still shy of the levels hit during the May scare, the periphery could be in trouble as the ECB pledged to exit the market by the end of the year.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main European indices were smashed lower during the session, with the DAX hitting a two month low, still being very weak relatively speaking compared to its US peers. US stocks sold off heavily following the opening bell and they failed to recover, unlike two days ago, and the major benchmarks traded well below yesterday’s levels just before the close.

The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 lost some of their recent mojo, pulling back heavily of the all-time highs during the day. All in all, the risk off shift continues to dominate across the board, as we expected and we remain negative on risk assets here, especially regarding emerging markets, even as the Dollar’s rally could be over for a while.

Dollar Pulls back as Pound Surges

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar took a beating as the Philly Fed Index came in much worse than expected, and as the Bank of England sent hawkish signals, pushing the Pound and the Euro higher. The central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%, but a rate hike this year got much closer, with a key member of the bank voicing inflationary concerns.

The Greenback fell more than what the events would imply, so a larger scale consolidation could have already started in the currency following the recent gains and the marginal new high yesterday. With the EUR/USD pair nearing the 1.1450-1.15 support zone, the USD/CAD hitting 1.33 and the AUD/USD touching 0.7350, a meaningful counter-trend move would be timely in the surging reserve currency.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold continued to drift lower before the Dollar’s reversal and it hit $1262 for the first time since lat December before bouncing back above the $1270 level in late trading. Crude oil also fell sharply in early trading, and the WTI contract traded with a $64 handle before rallying back to $66 per barrel.

The OPEC meeting, which is expected to result in a supply increase by the cartel made the crucial commodity very volatile in recent days, but we expect the bearish trend to continue, with a likely dip to the $60 level in the coming weeks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 280 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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