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Pre Market: Euro Slumps on Dovish ECB-Minutes as Trump Trolls Markets

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US stocks continue to go nowhere in a very choppy fashion, as trade war fears and the Syria-related tensions continue to cause wild swings in equities around the clock. While we have been expecting a hard-to-trade period thanks to the conflicting short- and long-term signals, the recent days made our head spin too.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

We still think that defense is the name of the game for short-term traders until a clear momentum move out of the current range, but looking under the hood, could help us anticipate the direction of the coming swing.

To spoil the result, we are leaning towards a bullish resolution of the current setup, as sentiment is still clearly negative, and good short trades are usually initiated in calm, confident markets. What also makes us slightly positive here, is the fact that the leaders of the correction (European and Asian stocks, commodity currencies) didn’t break down despite yesterday’s dip, holding on to most of their recent gains.

DAX 30, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

That said, we wouldn’t go all in here, and a clear breakout to a new swing highs by the major indices would be needed for a trend change, while another failed move would be a bearish sign. Today’s session could bring some clarity, as equities are trading near the upper boundary of their ranges after the dovish ECB meeting minutes, and those who fancy shorts, could a good entry point in the case of a failed breakout.

Meanwhile, the POTUS is definitely enjoying the spotlight, as his often contradicting war- and trade-related tweets are in the center of attention. Trump kick-started today’s bounce when he took a step back after yesterday’s “the missile’s are coming” stance, and tweeted that it’s there is no decision on an attack, it might not happen at all. We just have to wait and see when the next tweet-missile will be launched, as we are quite sure that it will be soon.

Risk Assets Mostly Positive

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The weakness of the European common currency is the most important trend in forex markets so far today, as, despite yesterday’s rate hike rumors, the minutes of the latest meeting of the central bank showed considerably doubts regarding growth and inflation.

The EUR/USD pair pulled back to 1.23 again, as it continues to trade in the trading range that we have been monitoring for months now. As the current moves still qualify as noise, we still urge traders to remain patient concerning the most popular currency pair.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Japanese Yen and gold are both trading lower after yesterday’s safe haven rally, as the imminent threat of the widening of the Syrian conflict eased, but we wouldn’t rule out another quick change in sentiment, even as early as today, and the precious metal remains one of our favorite bets in the current environment.

Featured image from Shutterstock            

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 465 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Bulls Hunting for a Potential Charge Back Above Broken Critical Trend Line

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  • Tron bulls continue to push the price north maintaining a firmer path of recovery.
  • TRX/USD has gained a significant 10% over the past four sessions, moving to its highest level in five days.

TRX/USD: Recent Price Behavior

The TRX/USD bulls have been enjoying some upside relief over the past few sessions now, picking up much pace in the session on Monday. The price managed to move to its highest level  in over seven sessions. Over the past four days, Tron has gained just shy of 10% as the price looks set for recovery following a breach last week of critical support.

An ascending trend line initially supported TRX/USD to the upside, providing exceptional comfort in its move north. The running support had been in play since the back-end of December 2018; however, after a decent run, the bears managed to force a breach. Sellers were able to regain control after the move below, to then see four consecutive days of selling, dropping around 10% in total.

Between 14-15th February, TRX/USD managed to find its feet after what could have very much been a free-fall to the deep south. Daily support came into play around $0.023550, which has provided needed comfort on several occasions already this side of the year. The recovery has been in play since this decent bounce occurred.

Tron Crypto Card

TRON recently detailed more information about its upcoming crypto card. The date of pre-order for the GRID X BitTorrent crypto card is going to be live on 18th February 18 2019 at 8 PM UTC. The GRID crypto card will be a prepaid card that can be topped with TRX in three amounts of 15,000, 50,000 and 100,000. Holders of the cards will be rewarded with BitTorrent (BTT) tokens as part of monthly BTT airdrops.

GRID will be one of two crypto cards built via the Tron network. The first, TronCard, was introduced as a tangible TRX wallet. Both TRX and TRC10 tokens can be stored on the TronCard similarly to a virtual wallet. These mentioned tokens are tokenized assets which would be leveraged via decentralized applications (dApps) via the Tron Network. A QR code feature can also be scanned by users for access to the public key. A physical card will then be able to integrate with the virtual wallet.

Technical Review – TRX/USD

TRX/USD daily chart.

The major challenge for the bulls as detailed above is seen underneath the breached ascending trend line; this is tracking at around $0.027500. Should the bulls manage to break back above this prior acting support, then expect a strong wave of buying pressure to come into play. Further to the north, eyes will be on the $0.03000 area. TRX/USD has not comfortably traded above this price region since August 2018. Once broken down, there isn’t too much in the way of a return back up to $0.04000 territory.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Leads Second Phase of Rally

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The major cryptocurrencies are all significantly higher today amid the US market holiday, with most of the top digital currencies also hitting their highest levels in a month. Today’s leaders also took out the highs set during the Litecoin-led spike 10 days ago, and the new swing highs mean that the counter-trend move continues. The negative long-term forces a

Our trend model is still on short-term buy signals in most cases, with the relatively weak Ripple still being the most important exception, but for now, the bearish long-term picture is unchanged, and traders should still use strict risk management strategies, as, despite the rally, bear market rules still apply. That said, investors could hold on to their smaller speculative positions, since the short-term break-out patterns in the segment remain intact, despite the still dominant negative long-term forces.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum built upon its recent short-term relative strength, surging past the $120 and $130 resistance levels, outperforming its closest peers and leading the way higher for the whole segment. With the new swing high, a new short-term uptrend is established, and our trend model remains on a short-term buy signal, but the long-term trend remains bearish.

The long-term outlook is still negative for ETH, but the coin could test the $160 resistance level, which marked the top of the previous counter-trend move in the coming days. The coin is currently trading near the $145 resistance level, and although it’s slightly overbought from a short-term perspective, the next resistance level could be reached in the coming days.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin has been slightly lagging behind Ethereum during the current rally, it not just recaptured the $3600 support/resistance level, but also managed to rally up to the next key zone near $3850. BTC remains on a short-term buy signal in our trend model despite its relative weakness, but from a long-term perspective, it’s still in a clearly bearish setup.

With that in mind, investors should still expect a move towards the $3250 and $3000 support levels following the current counter-trend move, but traders could still hold smaller, speculative positions in the coin. Further strong resistance is ahead between $4000 and $4050, while below $3600, support is found just above $3450.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple continues to be relatively weak compared to the broader market, and although it topped the $0.32 level amid today’s broad rally, it’s still only neutral in our trend model even from a short-term perspective. Also, the long-term setup is still hostile for bulls, and the test of the $0.28 and $0.26 levels still seems likely in the coming weeks, with strong resistance levels also ahead neat $0.3550, and $$0.3750.

Litecoin Hits Marginal New High as EOS Soars

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

LTC haven’t been able to retain its leadership during today’s move, and although it scored a new marginal swing high, ending the short-term correction, the momentum of the current upswing is not convincing. Should LTC form a failed break-out pattern, our trend model will switch to neutral, but for now, the currency remains on a buy signal.

From a long-term perspective, Litecoin is still clearly in a bearish trend, so traders and investors should only consider short-term positions, but for now the break-out remains intact. The next level of resistance is ahead near $51, while is now found near $44, $38, and $34.50.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS was also among the relatively stronger coins during the recent week, and after a failed move, today it surged to a significant new swing high, hitting the $3.50 resistance in the process. Our trend model remained on a short-term buy signal, during the recent consolidation, and although traders could take some chips off the table near the $3.50 level, the short-term trend is now bullish.

That said, the bearish long-term forces are still dominant in the market of EOS, and although the coin might test the $4.50-$5 zone, odds still the retest of the bear market low near $1.55 in the coming months. That said, traders could still to their short-term positions, following strict risk management rules, with support now found near $3, $2,80, and $2.55.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 465 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Euro Obscured By Clouds

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

EURUSD got much cheaper last week. For instance, on February 15th the pair reached the lowest levels since November 2018. The local bottom is now at 1.1233. By the end of the week, the major currency pair reached some kind of stability, but the Euro doesn’t look too strong even though economic numbers from the U.S. weren’t very impressive.

The key reason why the Euro plunged was the European Central Bank and its representative Benoît Cœuré, who said that the slowdown in the European economy growth turned out to be more global and much worse than expected. According to his estimations, the inflation in the Area would remain weak, and that’s why one shouldn’t exclude a possibility of a new program to support the European economy.

It’s not a good signal for the Euro Area and its currency. First of all, if Cœuré is allowed to talk about this, then this issue is very important for the regulator. Secondly, the ECB only recently closed its QE program and said that the Euro Area’s economy would no longer require any support. Discussing other possible tools and mechanisms, such as TLTRO (targeted longer-term refinancing operations), indicates that the European economy is starting to experience first signs of a slowdown, which is confirmed by recent statistics. However, in reality, things may be much worse.

In this light, weak readings from the U.S., such as as December retail sales (-1.2% m/m, much worse than expected) and January Industrial Production (-0.6% m/m, neutral market expectations) were out of investors’ eye. It’s bad for the USD, but the current situation with the Euro is much worse.

From the technical point of view, EURUSD is breaking the current descending tendency in the H4 chart and starting a new correction. Why is it possible to talk about growth right now? First of all, there is a convergence on the MACD in the H4 chart. Secondly, the price has broken the resistance line of the previous two-week downtrend. As for possible targets of this correction, they may be at 1.1341 and 1.1374 (38.2% and 50.0% fibo respectively). The key support level is the low at 1.1234.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 30 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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