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Pre Market: Euro Slumps on Dovish ECB-Minutes as Trump Trolls Markets

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US stocks continue to go nowhere in a very choppy fashion, as trade war fears and the Syria-related tensions continue to cause wild swings in equities around the clock. While we have been expecting a hard-to-trade period thanks to the conflicting short- and long-term signals, the recent days made our head spin too.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

We still think that defense is the name of the game for short-term traders until a clear momentum move out of the current range, but looking under the hood, could help us anticipate the direction of the coming swing.

To spoil the result, we are leaning towards a bullish resolution of the current setup, as sentiment is still clearly negative, and good short trades are usually initiated in calm, confident markets. What also makes us slightly positive here, is the fact that the leaders of the correction (European and Asian stocks, commodity currencies) didn’t break down despite yesterday’s dip, holding on to most of their recent gains.

DAX 30, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

That said, we wouldn’t go all in here, and a clear breakout to a new swing highs by the major indices would be needed for a trend change, while another failed move would be a bearish sign. Today’s session could bring some clarity, as equities are trading near the upper boundary of their ranges after the dovish ECB meeting minutes, and those who fancy shorts, could a good entry point in the case of a failed breakout.

Meanwhile, the POTUS is definitely enjoying the spotlight, as his often contradicting war- and trade-related tweets are in the center of attention. Trump kick-started today’s bounce when he took a step back after yesterday’s “the missile’s are coming” stance, and tweeted that it’s there is no decision on an attack, it might not happen at all. We just have to wait and see when the next tweet-missile will be launched, as we are quite sure that it will be soon.

Risk Assets Mostly Positive

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The weakness of the European common currency is the most important trend in forex markets so far today, as, despite yesterday’s rate hike rumors, the minutes of the latest meeting of the central bank showed considerably doubts regarding growth and inflation.

The EUR/USD pair pulled back to 1.23 again, as it continues to trade in the trading range that we have been monitoring for months now. As the current moves still qualify as noise, we still urge traders to remain patient concerning the most popular currency pair.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Japanese Yen and gold are both trading lower after yesterday’s safe haven rally, as the imminent threat of the widening of the Syrian conflict eased, but we wouldn’t rule out another quick change in sentiment, even as early as today, and the precious metal remains one of our favorite bets in the current environment.

Featured image from Shutterstock            

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 296 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Holds $7350 as Altcoins Show Weakness

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It has been another two-faced session so far in the cryptocurrency segment, as Bitcoin’s strength was in stark contrast with the widespread weakness among altcoins. Besides BTC only Dash is slightly in the green among the top 20 coins, and most of the majors are back in their previous trading ranges after the failed break-out, with still only Bitcoin sporting a short-term buy signal according to our trend model.

The mixed, but dominantly still bearish short-term picture means that traders should still be cautious with new positions, as, despite Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, a test of the June lows is still likely with regards to most of the majors, and new lows are also possible in the coming weeks.

For now, the trading ranges that developed after the June lows are still intact, and the previously negatively diverging coins should still be closely monitored for signs of weakness. On the contrary, should a distinct bullish leadership emerge, a trend change would be more likely, but for now, the technical evidence suggests that the segment-wide downtrend is still intact.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin avoided a breakdown below its break-out levels yesterday despite the widespread altcoin weakness and it managed to recover above the $7350 support/resistance level, keeping the bullish move intact. That said, the coin failed to trigger any form of follow-through among the majors, and that makes the break-out suspicious. Further support is at the line-in-the-sand $7000 level, at $6750, and $6500, while primary resistance is ahead at $7650.

Weak Bounce in Altcoins Following the Failed Break-Out

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

No altcoins triggered a short-term buy signal and most of the currencies experienced a failed breakout, but today the segment stabilized and for now, the June lows are safe. Ethereum continues to be relatively weak from a short-term perspective, as the coin settled down near the $475 level, failing to rally back towards $500.

A move the lower end of the range is likely now, with primary support found at $450, with other levels at $420, $400, $380, and $360, and with further resistance ahead between $555 and $575.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Thanks to its scarce liquidity, Dash turned very volatile during yesterday’s wild session, but despite the spikes on several exchanges, the coin remained in a similar technical setup as Litecoin, NEO, and Monero, the other relatively weak coins. These coins failed to recover above the structural breakdown levels, and remained on a long-term sell signal, despite Bitcoin’s encouraging rally. Dash should durably recover above $265 to trigger a short-term buy signal, but a move back to $215 seems more likely now.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is also among the weaker coins today and it failed to stay above the $0.49 resistance level, despite the intraday rally. Now XRP is still above the key long-term level which coincides with June low, but a test of that zone is likely in the coming weeks, as the short-term setup is still bearish. Further resistance is ahead at $0.54 and at $0.575, while primary support is now found at $0.45.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 296 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

TenX: Look What’s Going On

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How is this for an attention getter? The price of TenX had jumped almost 250% since late June to around the $1.22 level.

Since it peaked at $5.00 around Christmas time, TenX investors have lost big time. So, is the recent action grounds for excitement? I believe the answer is yes. After taking a close look, there are some very cool things about TenX. Of course there is always a difference between a flashy whitepaper and a finished product, but TenX could deliver some interesting stuff. So stay with me and let’s take a look.

The Basic Structure

Just for starters, TenX is a debit card driven wallet. But that is only part of the story. The founders claim to offer a major game changer by enabling users to spend their blockchain assets through their mobile phone or a physical debit card. That is a very cool way facilitate mass acceptance of crypto, but TenX is hardly the first.

There are already quite a few including Xapo, Bitwala, Monaco, Tokencard and Wirex that have been around for several years. On the other hand, TenX’s ICO raised $64 million taking the #8 ranking in 2017 for the biggest raise. Presumably somebody back then looked at all the competition and decided to place their bets on TenX.

Uniqueness

On the surface, TenX is a project to make a better mouse trap. They claim to be the only company to be able to make multiple cryptocurrencies instantly spendable. If you do some digging you will see how others like Bitwala, Monaco and Tokencard focus solely on Bitcoin or Ether. TenX’s current list includes Bitcoin, Ether and Dash. The idea is to eventually include virtually any blockchain asset.

To make this all happen the COMET network is under development. The acronym stands for Routing Protocol and Cross-chain Payment Channels. The goal is to create a trustless, instantaneous network that is, above all else, lowest cost provider.

At the outset, the TenX app or physical debit card will be accepted in roundly 200 countries and 36 million locations.

TenX Promises To Be Cheaper

In addition to accepting Bitcoin, Ether and Dash, TenX also incorporates both MasterCard and Visa. All customer assets are held in crypto form until the last moment before being converted to the designated fiat currency. Cardholder transaction fees are free. Instead, holders receive 0.1% refund on purchases.

Milestones

The release of the iOS and Android version of the mobile app started in October of last year and both versions of the mobile application available for download in all countries.

One of the nice things is the ease of signing up with the app that is a lesson in user friendliness that most crypto exchanges could draw a lesson from. The only drawback for some potential users is the requirement to list both place of residence as well as place of citizenship. For most this is not a big deal but could offend some crypto purists.

As of April, TenX offered full support for BTC, ETH and Litecoin (LTC). Later this year, the intent is to add additional support for all other ERC20 tokens as well as Ripple.

The next step is for TenX to receive approval for a banking license. When this takes place, TenX will be able to issue it’s own debit or even credit card without dependence on the Visa or MasterCard networks or other third party issuers. In my view, that is when the real fun begins for investors.

Management

Having over $60 million from their ICO enables the project to be fully staffed. In addition to four co-founders, there are sixteen engineers, a dozen members on the operations side, seven in Legal & Compliance, six in product design and development and over a half dozen in related capacities. In other words, this is company appears well beyond the whitepaper stage and capable of delivering on their bold promises.

 Why The Price Tumbled

In early January, just as the crypto selling wave was going into high gear, Visa announced that it was terminating its relationship with the payment processing company WaveCrest. Affected cards under association with WaveCrest included CryptoPay, Bitwala and TenX. At first the Visa decision appeared to be cryptocurrency related.

After the noise quieted down it became clear that the move was strictly related to WaveCrest. The WaveCrest termination does not affect other card programs approved by Visa that use fiat funds converted from cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, the damage had been done by the time all facts were known. TenX’s relationship with Visa remained valid.

Keep An Eye On TenX

So to restate the question, what’s going on with TenX: quite a bit actually. The real question remains, is the recent price spike the beginning of a major move? Fundamentally, things look promising and in the long run that will create higher value. So this is name on which to do your homework.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 88 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

Pre-Market: Stocks Retreat, Yuan Tumbles as Dollar Pain Trade Still On

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The major US indices opened with losses today, as the creeping rally of the recent days lost further lost momentum, and as international headwinds remained strong. While the losses are not drastic, and the leading benchmarks, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are still just a tad below their all-time highs, the small risk off shift could quickly turn into a larger scale correction, as a significant part of the market is still severely lagging behind.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Trading volumes are higher than in recent days, but that said, business-as-usual is the best phrase to describe price action across global financial markets, as the trends that have been dominating the previous months show no signs of weakening. The Dollar, which went from the most hated asset in early 2018 to the most bullish major currency, hit a new 12-month high as measured by the Dollar index today, as we expected.

USD/Yuan, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The reserve currency’s strength is hurting its peers differently though, and the recently weak Chinese Yuan took another major hit today in early trading. Elsewhere in the forex segment, the GBP is back below $1.30 against the Greenback, while the Euro is close to testing its June lows near 1.15. The USD/CNH pair hit 6.80 for the first time in a year, and its weakness spread to the commodity segment yet again, with especially copper feeling the pain.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The industrial metal plunged below key long-term support today Precious metals are also getting pounded, with gold hitting $1210, while oil is a positive outlier as the oversold bounce continued in WTI crude.

Europe Still Far Behind amid Mixed Economic Numbers

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Back to stocks, besides the full-blown bear market in China and the still struggling emerging markets, Europe is also relatively weak. While the British stocks are outperforming thanks to the pronounced weakness of the Pound, the rest of the continent is struggling to catch up with the US market.

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The DAX turned lower after its recent rally today, and as the weakness in the Euro and the global risk-on shift were unable to lift the German benchmark, a risk-of turn could push back it even towards the April lows below the 12,000 mark.

Today’s economic numbers reinforced the divergence between the US and rest of the world, as British Retail Sales missed by a mile, pushing European assets lower, while the US Philly Fed index came in well above expected, and weekly jobless claims hit an almost 60-year low in the US.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 296 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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