Pre-Market Analysis and Chartbook: Stocks Tumble as US Yields Surge
Thursday Market Snapshot
|Asset||Current Value||Daily Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||76,33||0.14%|
The major US indices ended another session near their intraday lows yesterday, and today the market is set to open clearly in the red too. Asian and European markets fell in a concerted fashion too, although still there is a huge discrepancy between the technical positions of the US markets and basically all other markets globally.
The Dow hit another intraday all-time high yesterday before retreating into the close, while the relatively weaker Nasdaq led the way lower, but still, the tech benchmark is not far off from its respective record high.
10-Year US Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The US yield curve has been exploding higher ever since yesterday’s better than expected ADP Employment report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, with the US-Mexican-Canadian trade deal still also pushing yields higher.
The US 10-year and 30-year yields had the largest move from a technical perspective, with the 10-year yield surging to a 4-year high near 3.25%. The rally in yields (or selloff in Treasuries) made a big impact in forex markets too, with the Dollar Index spiking to the highest level since mid-August.
DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The DAX is trading modestly lower after yesterday’s bank holiday in Germany, and so far, together with the other major European indices, the technical setup of the benchmark is stable. The September lows are not in direct danger, and although the index couldn’t narrow the gap compared to its US peers, the lack of relative weakness is a slight improvement after months of bleeding.
The DAX continues to drift lower along the declining trendline that, as we pointed out last week, but there is still hope for a higher swing low for bulls here.
All Eyes on Tomorrow’s Jobs Report
S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The S&P 500 attempted a break-out to new all-time highs several times this week, but the index failed near the 2950 level for now. The large-cap benchmark is now testing the previous major break-out level near 2915 that since turned into support, and due to the recent sideways drift, the dominant rising short-term trendline is now broken.
Before Jobs Friday, as usual, trading volumes might be low today, and that could lead to choppy trading across asset classes, with sudden spikes in both directions, so especially day-traders should be prepared.
AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Commodities are flat today, despite yesterday’s wild swings in currencies and bonds, with crude oil, gold, and copper, all trading in narrow ranges so far. That said, commodity-related currencies are active, with both the Aussie and the New Zealand Dollar hitting new 30-month lows against the Greenback. The Aussie is now likely headed for a test of the 0.70 level, and it could hit a new 9-year low next week when Chinese markets re-open.
Emerging market currencies are also under pressure, but so far, their recent lows are not in any danger, as the moves are more pronounced in the majors, relatively speaking. Should the risk-off moves in equities persist, the most vulnerable countries might be back in the crosshairs in the coming weeks.
Major Stock Indices
Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis
FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis
EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
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