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Pre-Market Analysis and Chartbook: Stocks Plunge as Chinese Rally Fades

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Tuesday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,713 -1.59%
DAX 30 11,282 -2.06%
WTI Crude Oil 67.72 -2.11%
GOLD 1,241 1.38%
Bitcoin 6,393 -0.20%
EUR/USD 1.1469 0.05%

The major global stock indices are all significantly lower today just after the US open, with several European benchmarks hitting new multi-month and multi-year lows after the recent bounce. Chinese stocks turned south after the strongest two-day rally in years, and although the local markets remain above their recent bear market lows, the shift weighed heavily on sentiment across the globe, with the Nikkei also getting below last week’s minimum level.

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

In Europe, the DAX is the weakest major index again, and German stocks confirmed the long-term breakdown that we have been following in recent weeks. Today, chemical giant Bayer is pushing the benchmark lower, but the weakness in auto-makers also continues to drag equities lower together with the struggling financial sector.

Spreads between Italian and core Eurozone government bonds are still wide, as the budget debate continues to pressure Italian assets, and despite the relative stability of the Euro, European equities are in deep trouble.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Euro is hanging on a thread above its monthly lows against the US Dollar, while the broader Dollar index hit a marginal new 2-month high today. All eyes are on the European Central Bank and Italy this week, and with the US midterms approaching, things can get wild in currencies in the coming days, especially given the rising volatility in equities, and the general risk-off shift.

While the EUR/USD pair is trading below the 1.15 level, the Dollar failed to show momentum against the common currency with buyers consistently stepping in near 1.1440. That said, the broader downtrend is clearly intact, and a test of the support zone near 1.13 still seems like the most likely scenario in the coming weeks.

S&P 500 Hits New Correction Lows as VIX Eyes 25 Level

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

US index futures had an ugly overnight session before the pre-market earnings dump, with the Asian selloff dragging the major indices lower. While the Nasdaq is holding up above its recent lows, the Dow and the S&P 500 plunged well below their multi-month lows, and the small-cap Russell 2000 also opened deep in the red, below its correction low as well.

Short-term technicals continue to scream sell in the US, with the weak bounce clearing the bulk of the oversold momentum readings with regards to the key benchmarks, and with market internals still being very negative. For now, we would still not buy the dip here, especially as we see no major positive divergences in global markets either.

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Looking at the Volatility Index (VIX), the regime change that we were speculation on at the start of the correction seems to be confirmed, with the VIX getting back very easily above the line-in-the-sand 20 level. The index neared the 25 level pre-market, and although the panicky 30 level is still well above the current zone, a concerted move below the lows could spark a renewed surge in the VIX as early as today.

This leaves a protracted correction as the best-case scenario for US stocks, but as usual with bearish trends, violent counter-trend rallies are expected along the way, punishing late shorts and resetting the negative sentiment.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

EOS Price Analysis: EOSIO 1.6 Update Enhances Speeds and is Cost Effective; Downside Price Risks Remain for EOS/USD

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  • EOSIO developers have released 1.6 upgrade, which sees enhanced speeds and is more cost efficient.
  • EOS/USD price action is ranging; given current behavior, a breakout may just be imminent.

The EOS price on Friday is seen trading down in minor negative territory. The price is caught in a very stubborn range. This behavior being observed could prove to be damaging in the coming sessions if the bulls do not break above resistance. EOS/USD is being dictated by a tough acting supply area, which is seen tracking from $2.60-$2.50 range. Then to the downside, a near-term demand zone is keeping the price propped up for now, $2.35-$2.25.

EOS/USD is moving within this consolidation mode, which has come into play since breaching a vital part of the bull’s recovery. An ascending trend line was seen tracking from 7th December 2018, right up until it was breached by the market bears on 10th January 2019.  This had coincided with the price running into chunky resistance at the psychological $3.00 price mark. It has not convincingly been above this region since the back-end of November 2018.

EOSIO 1.6 Release

EOSIO developers, who have been working on a system upgrade, have now announced the release of an upgraded version 1.6.0 of EOSIO. In terms of the impact of this development, they have instantly been noticeable and signaling a large improvement.  This new release does boast further features and fixes to improve upon the cumulative patches, which were implemented to enhance v1.5.

Details were provided by the company within an official Medium blog post. Updates on the EOSIO software will enhance efficiency for the peer-to-peer networking layer in addition to seeing real-time transactions improve overall transaction speed. They further stated that this release is something that had been planned as part of their progressive goals to improve their performance. They have intentions to maintain the fastest protocol across the market.

The development team tweeted, “Tests show upwards of a 35% increase in likely transaction speed. We are projecting noticeable improvements to sustainable transactions per second. In addition, reduced CPU costs, and lower latency on all EOSIO based blockchains.”

Technical Review – EOS/USD

EOS/USD daily chart.

The key for a new committed trend is to see a breakout from the confinements of the mentioned supply sitting above and demand zone below. Given the earlier detailed break below an ascending trend line, vulnerabilities remain, with the range-block formation.

Should the bears manage to force a drop below $2.25, then a new wave of selling will likely come into force. The next major area of support should be noted down towards the December 2018 low. $1.83 and then then $1.55 regions should be sought for potential comfort.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

3 Things You Need to Know About the Market Today: Trade Rally, Pound Pullback, Tesla Worries

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1, Trade Optimism Drives Rally in Stocks, Oil

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The US government is mulling to lift or ease some of the trade tariffs on Chinese goods, at least according to the reports that surfaced yesterday, and although the rumors were promptly denied by the Treasury, risk assets have been pushing higher ever since. Global stocks are trading at 1-month highs, with understandably, the major US indices and China leading the way higher. We expect further gestures by the two sides in the coming weeks, as the talks progress, but a final agreement could still be months away.

The most affected commodities, such as copper and oil are also up today, and but as we noted this weekend, the oversold rally in risk assets is stretched now. Also, even as the weaker global benchmarks, such as the Shanghai Composite have joined the party, the clear economic slowdown and the bearish technicals make the current environment hostile for bulls

2, Pound Retreats After Hitting 2-Month High Above 1.30

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Besides the Trade War saga, the likely delay of the Brexit deadline has been making waves all week long, and Pound bulls seem to like the idea of a possible “soft” deal with the European Union. The currency hit its highest level against the Dollar since mid-November, topping the 1.30 level, while British stocks are also trading near their 2019 highs.

Prime Minister Theresa May pledged to include the opposition parties following Wednesday’s no-confidence vote, but for now, even starting the talks is challenging, even though the government labeled the first talks “constructive”. In any case, with the chances of a no-deal Brexit being low right now, the Pound could enjoy further gains, especially as long as the global risk rally lasts.

3, Tesla Disappoints With Guidance, Cuts Workforce by 7%

Tesla (TSLA), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While it held up very well during the recent tumroil in the stock market, Elon Musk’s crown jewel, Tesla (TSLA) has been down by as much as 8% today in pre-market trading after warning investors that the electric car maker will likely turn a smaller-than-expected profit in the coming quarter. Tesla is struggling to ramp up the production of the Model 3, while also facing difficulties to hit its cost goal with regards to its “mass” product.

With the traditional car makers slowly but surely closing in on the company, and given the looming cash flow issues, the coming quarters will crucial for the Musk. The company just avoided bankruptcy in its early days, and some bears think that the fierce competition and the production issues could lead to a crisis yet again. The company’s workforce skyrocketed in recent years, and today CEO Musk also announced that it will lay off 7%, approximately 3000 workers, to cut costs after the expansion. He stated that,

“We unfortunately have no choice but to reduce full-time employee headcount by approximately 7%, we grew by 30% last year, which is more than we can support, and retain only the most critical temps and contractors (…)”

While today, earnings reports will be few and far between, Netflix (NFLX) will also be in focus after reporting yesterday in after-hours trading, and for now, the streaming giant is also trading lower despite the broad overnight rally in stocks.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Stellar Price Analysis: Grayscale Announces XLM Based Trust; XLM/USD Stuck Within Bearish Structure

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  • Global digital asset management firm, Grayscale, has announced an investment vehicle based around XLM.
  • XLM/USD is moving within the confinements of a bearish pattern structure, subject to a breakout south.

XLM/USD has been subject to very narrow and choppy trading, which has been going on for the past eight sessions now. Price action is moving within a range-block formation, which is seen across the board with several of its peers. This type of behavior does indicate of some potential vulnerabilities to the downside.

The current consolidation mode taken up came into play after a prior period of range-trading, which saw a deep breakout on 10th January. XLM/USD had plummeted by a hefty 20% to its lowest levels seen since 17th December. Despite the mid-December bull run, which was seen to the end of the month, it has not escaped the bear market. Therefore, bull rallies continue to be sold with some force by the bears.

Grayscale Stellar Lumens Trust

Grayscale Investments, a global digital asset management organization, has announced the launch of an investment vehicle based on Stellar Lumens (XLM). This is aimed at giving investors exposure to the cryptocurrency XLM. It is the sixth largest by market cap, just over the $2 billion mark, at the time of writing.

The asset management company tweeted via their official account, “We are excited to announce two big developments! First, today marks the launch of Grayscale Stellar Lumens Trust! Investors can now gain exposure to the price movement of XLM through a traditional investment vehicle.”

Grayscale’s Managing Director, Michael Sonnenshein, noted that this Stellar product that they have introduced was brought in on the back of investor demand. Furthermore, he details that Grayscale’s push to offer investors exposure to “established blockchain projects with substantial traction and resources.” Sonnenshein lastly concluded by noting he is bullish on Stellar and the real use cases that it brings.

Technical Review – XLM/USD

XLM/USD daily chart. Price action is moving within triangular structure.

Price action is currently moving within a triangular pattern structure. XLM/USD has been trading within this since the start of December. The lower support was tested to the downside on 14th December at around $0.094000-$0.093500 prior to the big bounce. Life kicked back into the bulls, forcing the rally up to the tracking resistance, around $0.131500. Furthermore, the pattern has further been confirmed, with several tests to the lower and upper acting trend lines.

Lastly, in terms of the described structure, it can also be perceived as a bearish pennant formation, which again point to downside. Support is currently tracking around the $0.107000 area, and a failure to hold will see the December low retested to the downside, $0.093500. Immediate resistance can be observed at $0.120000-$0.1215000.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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