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Pre-Market Analysis And Chartbook: Carnage Spreads as Stocks Extend Losses

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Thursday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,779 0.25%
DAX 30 11,643 -0.60%
WTI Crude Oil 72.2 -0.58%
GOLD 1,213 1.28%
Bitcoin 6,190 -5.03%
EUR/USD 1.1578 0.51%

10 years after the Lehman-Crash, we have another chaotic October at hand in stocks, as equity markets had their worst 24 hours since the February mini-crash, with the Nasdaq falling the most in a day since 2011. Yesterday’s panicky move on Wall Street caused a deep selloff in the major Asian markets as well, and Europe is also a sea of red, with several benchmarks falling to multi-month lows and with the DAX plunging to its lowest level since early-2017.

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main Asian markets all got hammered lower today with some of the benchmarks plunging the most since the Brexit vote, and with more than 3% declines across the board. The Shanghai Composite violated its recent bear market low and fell to a new more than 4-year low amid the still strong trade-war fears and the global selloff.

While Treasury yields are well off their lows, and the jump in yields triggered the correction, the main stock benchmarks are hovering near their lows, without a meaningful bounce, so far today. That said, in these market conditions wild swings will likely be the norm in both directions, so day-traders should choose their position sizes carefully.

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As we mentioned the main German stock index fell to a 21-month low today, taking out its late-March low and breaching the 11,500 level in the process. The benchmark is now clearly in oversold territory, but barring a strong reversal above 12,000 soon, a major head-and-shoulders pattern would be confirmed on the monthly chart, with a target around the 10,000 level.

Yen Pushed Higher by Safe-Haven Buyers

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main US indices are set to open moderately below yesterday’s closing levels, and as correlations skyrocketed strong divergences of the past weeks eased, with no meaningful outliers today. The new volatility-regime that we have been tracking since last week means that even the indices will likely have intraday swings of 1% or more, as it was the case during the February Volatility-Apocalypse.

The S&P 500 plunged clearly below the January low, and back to the 2750 level that represented the mid-point of the multi-month consolidation period that developed after the mini-crash. the modest miss in the CPI index might just be what the doctor ordered for bulls, and it could be enough to push the indices into positive territory near the market open.

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Japanese Yen has been the biggest beneficiary of yesterday’s selloff among the key safe-haven assets, as gold is still stuck in a broader downtrend and as the Swiss Franc is still pushed lower by the easy monetary policies of the SNB. The Yen hit an almost 1-month high against the Dollar, an almost 1-month low in the USD/JPY chart above, and although pair is still in a longer-term uptrend, a durable risk-off shift could continue to push the Japanese currency higher.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 466 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

IOTA Price Analysis: Bulls on the Loose as IOTA Foundation Announces New Collaboration with Nova to Fund Start-ups

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  • The IOTA Foundation has entered into a partnership with Nova to provide funded support for start-ups.
  • IOT/USD is currently enjoying a decent push north, following a breakout of a bullish pennant pattern structure.

IOT/USD: Recent Price Behaviour

IOT/USD has been on a decent run of gains over the five sessions, having jumped around 18% at the time of writing. The price has been on a path to the north since 7th February, after hitting a low for 2019 around $0.2400. A chunky amount of buying pressure was observed down at these depressed levels.

The bulls enjoyed an initial jump between 7-8th February, gaining around 18% on the fast two-day rally. IOT/USD then consolidated trading within a range-bound nature to then have formed a bullish pennant pattern formation. On 17th February, an explosive amount of upside came into play following this technical breakout.

IOTA Announces New Collaboration with Nova

The IOTA Foundation has announced a new partnership with Nova, a start-up incubator, according to an official press release from the organization. As part of the collaboration, its goal is to begin funding start-ups employing the platform of IOTA. The program will be called IOTA Cofoundery on Nova’s website; it will be focusing on early stages of development and seed funding.

Start-ups will be able to leverage through the program a mentoring and tech start-up service to consist of over 20 consultants that specialize in technology. There will be much nurturing and guidance as part of this offering. To-date Nova has already co-founded over 80 technology start-ups, with over half of those still being active after three years. It is further noted within the official release that the three-year start-up survival rate is 10%.

Nova will invest in ideas that can prove user problem-fit. IOTA via their grant program will match the investment. It will provide a comforting amount of support and the foundations for viable businesses to develop within the ecosystem of IOTA.

The program will allow entrepreneurial tech start-ups to build new innovative business models by leveraging IOTA technology. Nova has noted that this new offering is now already open for applications and can apply directly on the Nova website.

Technical Review – IOT/USD

IOT/USD daily chart.

Given the noted move north from a bullish pennant pattern structure, the doors to further upside potential have opened. Near-term supply is observed heading into the $0.3400 territory, IOT/USD last traded here in January and dealt a rejection blow. Should the bulls manage to maintain current upside momentum and break above this zone, eyes will then be on the 2019 high area. At the start of the year, the price managed to hit $0.4088 on 2nd January.

In terms of support, this should be noted back down at the broken pennant pattern. A retest just on top could be seen which currently tracks at around $0.2750-40. Failure of this holding could then see the February gains wholly reversed.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Bulls Hunting for a Potential Charge Back Above Broken Critical Trend Line

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  • Tron bulls continue to push the price north maintaining a firmer path of recovery.
  • TRX/USD has gained a significant 10% over the past four sessions, moving to its highest level in five days.

TRX/USD: Recent Price Behavior

The TRX/USD bulls have been enjoying some upside relief over the past few sessions now, picking up much pace in the session on Monday. The price managed to move to its highest level  in over seven sessions. Over the past four days, Tron has gained just shy of 10% as the price looks set for recovery following a breach last week of critical support.

An ascending trend line initially supported TRX/USD to the upside, providing exceptional comfort in its move north. The running support had been in play since the back-end of December 2018; however, after a decent run, the bears managed to force a breach. Sellers were able to regain control after the move below, to then see four consecutive days of selling, dropping around 10% in total.

Between 14-15th February, TRX/USD managed to find its feet after what could have very much been a free-fall to the deep south. Daily support came into play around $0.023550, which has provided needed comfort on several occasions already this side of the year. The recovery has been in play since this decent bounce occurred.

Tron Crypto Card

TRON recently detailed more information about its upcoming crypto card. The date of pre-order for the GRID X BitTorrent crypto card is going to be live on 18th February 18 2019 at 8 PM UTC. The GRID crypto card will be a prepaid card that can be topped with TRX in three amounts of 15,000, 50,000 and 100,000. Holders of the cards will be rewarded with BitTorrent (BTT) tokens as part of monthly BTT airdrops.

GRID will be one of two crypto cards built via the Tron network. The first, TronCard, was introduced as a tangible TRX wallet. Both TRX and TRC10 tokens can be stored on the TronCard similarly to a virtual wallet. These mentioned tokens are tokenized assets which would be leveraged via decentralized applications (dApps) via the Tron Network. A QR code feature can also be scanned by users for access to the public key. A physical card will then be able to integrate with the virtual wallet.

Technical Review – TRX/USD

TRX/USD daily chart.

The major challenge for the bulls as detailed above is seen underneath the breached ascending trend line; this is tracking at around $0.027500. Should the bulls manage to break back above this prior acting support, then expect a strong wave of buying pressure to come into play. Further to the north, eyes will be on the $0.03000 area. TRX/USD has not comfortably traded above this price region since August 2018. Once broken down, there isn’t too much in the way of a return back up to $0.04000 territory.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 124 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Leads Second Phase of Rally

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The major cryptocurrencies are all significantly higher today amid the US market holiday, with most of the top digital currencies also hitting their highest levels in a month. Today’s leaders also took out the highs set during the Litecoin-led spike 10 days ago, and the new swing highs mean that the counter-trend move continues. The negative long-term forces a

Our trend model is still on short-term buy signals in most cases, with the relatively weak Ripple still being the most important exception, but for now, the bearish long-term picture is unchanged, and traders should still use strict risk management strategies, as, despite the rally, bear market rules still apply. That said, investors could hold on to their smaller speculative positions, since the short-term break-out patterns in the segment remain intact, despite the still dominant negative long-term forces.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum built upon its recent short-term relative strength, surging past the $120 and $130 resistance levels, outperforming its closest peers and leading the way higher for the whole segment. With the new swing high, a new short-term uptrend is established, and our trend model remains on a short-term buy signal, but the long-term trend remains bearish.

The long-term outlook is still negative for ETH, but the coin could test the $160 resistance level, which marked the top of the previous counter-trend move in the coming days. The coin is currently trading near the $145 resistance level, and although it’s slightly overbought from a short-term perspective, the next resistance level could be reached in the coming days.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin has been slightly lagging behind Ethereum during the current rally, it not just recaptured the $3600 support/resistance level, but also managed to rally up to the next key zone near $3850. BTC remains on a short-term buy signal in our trend model despite its relative weakness, but from a long-term perspective, it’s still in a clearly bearish setup.

With that in mind, investors should still expect a move towards the $3250 and $3000 support levels following the current counter-trend move, but traders could still hold smaller, speculative positions in the coin. Further strong resistance is ahead between $4000 and $4050, while below $3600, support is found just above $3450.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple continues to be relatively weak compared to the broader market, and although it topped the $0.32 level amid today’s broad rally, it’s still only neutral in our trend model even from a short-term perspective. Also, the long-term setup is still hostile for bulls, and the test of the $0.28 and $0.26 levels still seems likely in the coming weeks, with strong resistance levels also ahead neat $0.3550, and $$0.3750.

Litecoin Hits Marginal New High as EOS Soars

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

LTC haven’t been able to retain its leadership during today’s move, and although it scored a new marginal swing high, ending the short-term correction, the momentum of the current upswing is not convincing. Should LTC form a failed break-out pattern, our trend model will switch to neutral, but for now, the currency remains on a buy signal.

From a long-term perspective, Litecoin is still clearly in a bearish trend, so traders and investors should only consider short-term positions, but for now the break-out remains intact. The next level of resistance is ahead near $51, while is now found near $44, $38, and $34.50.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS was also among the relatively stronger coins during the recent week, and after a failed move, today it surged to a significant new swing high, hitting the $3.50 resistance in the process. Our trend model remained on a short-term buy signal, during the recent consolidation, and although traders could take some chips off the table near the $3.50 level, the short-term trend is now bullish.

That said, the bearish long-term forces are still dominant in the market of EOS, and although the coin might test the $4.50-$5 zone, odds still the retest of the bear market low near $1.55 in the coming months. That said, traders could still to their short-term positions, following strict risk management rules, with support now found near $3, $2,80, and $2.55.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 466 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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