Connect with us

Events

Obama Ducks Apple/FBI Conflict In Encouraging Innovation At SXSW

Published

on

President Obama used his historic appearance at the South By Southwest (SXSW) festival Friday in Austin, Texas to expound on the importance of innovation, making a point of not taking a side in the Apple/FBI conflict over accessing the data in the smartphone used in the San Bernardino terrorist attack. He said he could not make an official statement on the conflict at this time.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

He did, however, address the question of how to find a balance between privacy and security.

Obama Sees Balance Needed

“We can’t take an absolutist view on this,” he said, recognizing both sides of the argument, according to a transcript of the remarks provided by Fortune Magazine.

He said he is confident the conflict between protecting public safety and personal privacy can be resolved.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

The tech community and the people who care about the issue of privacy versus safety will help solve it. “Because what will happen is if everyone goes to their respective corners and the tech community says ‘Either we have strong, perfect encryption or else it’s Big Brother and an Orwellian world,’ what you’ll find is that after something really bad happens, the politics of this will swing, and they will become sloppy, and rushed, and it will go through Congress in ways that have not been thought through,” he said.

Technology Changes Choices

Prior to the invention of smartphones, if a criminal engaged in a terrorist plot, law enforcement had the right to use a warrant to search a person’s home to seek evidence of wrongdoing. “And we agreed on that because just like all of our other rights, there are going to be some constraints that we impose to ensure that we are safe, secure and living in a civilized society,” he said.

Complicating the matter is the desire to prevent terrorism or disrupting the financial system, the air traffic control system or a whole other set of increasingly digitized systems.

People on the encryption side will argue that any key, even if directed at one device, could eventually be used on every device. “That is a technical question. I am not a software engineer. It is, I think, technically true, but I think it can be overstated,” Obama said.

Snowden Disclosure Raised Suspicions

Obama noted the Snowden disclosure elevated suspicion of government oversight. He said the Snowden issue overstated the dangers to U.S. citizens since intelligence agencies are scrupulous about U.S. citizens on U.S. soil. The Snowden disclosures identified excesses overseas.

The President said he understands the importance of privacy, and that government should not “willy nilly” get into smartphones to view personal data. While urging audience members to not take an absolutist view, he said the government will eventually have to make clear that the circumstances by which it is acceptable to bypass security on devices that become part of a criminal investigation.

If it is possible to make a device completely impenetrable, such protection would shield a child pornographer. “How do we disrupt a terrorist plot? How do we even do a simple thing like tax enforcement?” he asked. He said concessions will be needed for law enforcement to get necessary information.

Also read: FBI’s claim that only Apple can unlock the iPhone is ‘horseshit,’ says Edward Snowden

Decisions Are Needed

Setting aside the case between the FBI and Apple, Obama said decisions must be made on balancing “respective risks.” “The dangers are real. This notion that sometimes our data is different and can be walled off from these other trade-offs is incorrect.”

Obama said the answer will come down to creating a system where the encryption is as strong as possible, the key is as secure as possible, accessible by the smallest possible number of people, for a subset of important issues. “How we design that is not something I have the expertise to do.”

The President said he is on the civil liberties side of the debate. But he noted he is not interested in “overdrawing” the values that have made the U.S. an exceptional nation simply for expediency. The dangers are real, and maintaining law and order is important.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.8 stars on average, based on 4 rated postsLester Coleman is a veteran business journalist based in the United States. He has covered the payments industry for several years and is available for writing assignments.




Feedback or Requests?

Events

Many Great Things to Come

Published

on

Many thanks for all the comments and feedback from yesterday’s blog about my trip. Many of you were asking to be more specific about the information that I received there. So I did want to let you know that most of what I did was more networking and meeting people than anything else.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

In line with that, I did meet some people who blew my mind with some of the things they’re working on. I have added all of them to this daily update and asked many of them to send back further details about what they’re doing so I can update all of you on these exciting projects.

The experiences we have help shape who we are and influence what we say and do. So expect further updates about this in the coming weeks and months.

To answer your question more pointedly, the main takeaway that I got from Davos was that each individual has the power to change the world. However, the key to doing it is not by making it your end goal. Rather, find something positive that you are passionate about and work hard on it.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

“If you want to change the world start by making your own bed.” -Admiral William McRaven

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

  • Time of War
  • Dollar Getting Crushed
  • Weiss on Crypto

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of January 25th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Traditional Markets

The big boys are talking in Davos and it seems to be influencing the markets a bit. On Tuesday, President Trump imposed some tariffs on a few specific import items that are usually made in China. Suspicions that Trump was finally making good on his campaign rhetoric to start a trade war with China seem to have been confirmed yesterday by Wilber Ross…

Stocks around the world are taking a bit of a hit as the increased possibility of an all-out trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.

Adding fuel to the fire, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin seemed to have changed his mind about the US Dollar’s role in the economy. Previously he had been advocating for a stronger Dollar but yesterday he was quoted as saying…

These comments are actually more in line with what Trump has been saying from the beginning but now that Mnuchin seems committed, the Dollar had a grand sell-off, falling to its lowest point in more than three years.

The weaker Dollar sent Gold and Oil up to fresh highs as well and we can also observe a stronger Japanese Yen.

Crypto Ratings

For the longest time, I’ve been telling people that we need a better way to grade cryptocurrencies. The market cap is one metric but it’s really only a small part of the story and not a great indication of the strength or viability for most digital assets.

It seems now that the crypto craze is going mainstream, an official US rating agency just released a comprehensive grade on 74 of the top traded cryptos.

At first glance, it looks like they actually did a pretty good job. It makes sense that none of them got an A rating. This is an extremely risky market and it would be really misleading to say that any of them are “solid” investments.

I really liked that Ethereum was rated slightly higher than Bitcoin, and their reasoning is exactly what we’ve been talking about in these daily updates. The Bitcoin blockchain is congested.

The event was a bit chaotic and their website went down due DDoS hacking and a massive surge in visitors.

For cryptotraders, this is the first really great event so far this year. This is a direct endorsement by an established financial firm and cements the “cryptocurrency” label as an acceptable asset class in the eyes of the world. Since the announcement, we’re seeing a nice rally in the market.

As we stated previously, prices might fall further but they don’t necessarily have to. If momentum off this event builds or we get some other positive updates, we could be in for some great things ahead.

As always, let me know your thoughts and opinions. Post directly to my wall on eToro or tag me on any other social network.

Have an outstanding day!

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation. The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose. Cryptocurrencies can widely fluctuate in prices and are not appropriate for all investors. Trading cryptocurrencies is not supervised by any EU regulatory framework.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
20 votes, average: 4.90 out of 520 votes, average: 4.90 out of 520 votes, average: 4.90 out of 520 votes, average: 4.90 out of 520 votes, average: 4.90 out of 5 (20 votes, average: 4.90 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 31 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Events

My Davos Experience

Published

on

Humble apologies for the format of today’s Email. The markets, crypto and stocks, have been rather flat over the last 24 hours so there should be no need for price graphs and this should actually be a good point for reflection. I apologize as well for the delay in getting it to you. I’ve been from plane to plane to train to meeting to train since Sunday night and now writing to you from the Starbucks at ZRH.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

Would like to wish a very warm welcome to all the new people who are getting the daily market update for the first time today. Though this trip was very short, it was incredibly productive. In addition to the scheduled meetings, I managed to meet scores of interesting people who I hope to stay in touch with for many years to come.

It was incredible to see the overwhelming presence of crypto and blockchain enthusiasts. In the center of the main promenade in Davos were two buildings that happened to be next door to each other.

I managed to get a selfie in front of one of them.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Crypto HQ was filled with new age anarchists and revolutionaries, people involved in all sorts of ICOs and other fascinating projects, many of which with a good chance to change the world for the better.

Next door was the more elegant looking Ethereal Lounge that was put up by Consensys and hosted the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance. The people there were more involved in the integration of blockchain into already existing frameworks like government and big business, mostly using the Ethereum blockchain.

As most of my time was spent in these two buildings, I didn’t get the chance to “rub elbows” with the rich and famous. It was very interesting to see some of the sneers and smiles from people passing by the crypto events. It felt like some people saw us more as unwanted party crashers then the builders of the next layer of the internet.

In fact, there are two events on the main stage today that emphasize this dichotomy. The “crypto asset bubble” will have anti-blockchain enthusiasts speaking but the second is actually called “the remaking of global finance” and will have speakers like Steven Mnuchin and Christine Lagarde.

From my perspective, I’d much rather ignore the naysayers. They will come around once blockchain technology is more tangible and user-friendly. Certainly, I’d be happy to help educate them but only if and when they’re interested. It does seem though, that we’ve managed to push through all that. Much more people are now aware of this revolution and plenty of bright people are getting involved. Probably the incredible price movement had something to do with that but now that the genie is out of the bottle people are using it to improve their own lives and the lives of others and at the end of the day that’s what Davos is supposed to be about.

Was very proud to represent eToro in a place like this.

Have an amazing day ahead. As always, feel free to reach me with any thoughts questions or comments.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
13 votes, average: 3.62 out of 513 votes, average: 3.62 out of 513 votes, average: 3.62 out of 513 votes, average: 3.62 out of 513 votes, average: 3.62 out of 5 (13 votes, average: 3.62 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 31 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Commodities

How have various asset classes performed during previous wars

Published

on

North Korea, the dictator ruled nation has been threatening the US and its allies with a possible missile attack, which may also have a nuclear warhead on it. The experts are divided on the actual capability of North Korea to undertake the attacks, however, its leader, Kim Jong-un leaves no opportunity to provoke the US and its allies.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

Key points

  1. Stocks perform better than average when the conflict starts
  2. Gold rallies before the start of the conflict
  3. Bonds have underperformed stocks during previous wars
  4. The US dollar has fallen on few occasions during a conflict
  5. The current war, if it starts, can severely impact electronic goods
  6. The US national debt is likely to balloon if US involves itself in South Korea’s reconstruction after the war ends

Though North Korea’s military prowess is nothing great to write home about, it can still cause extensive damage to millions of civilian lives and the economy of its neighbor South Korea, to some extent Japan and the US territory of Guam. However, in this article, we shall restrict ourselves to the impact of the war on various asset classes and the world economy. We shall use the historical evidence to arrive at our conclusion.

How does the US stock market perform during wars?

The US has fought several wars since 1960 as shown above. While a few ended quickly, others have been a long-drawn affair. Notwithstanding, Barron’s has outlined the effect of the following seven major hostilities on the Dow Jones Industrial Average since early 1980s.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //
Serial No War Year
01 The US invasion of Grenada 1983
02 The US invasion of Panama 1989
03 The first Gulf War 1991
04 The US bombing of Kosovo 1999
05 The US War of Afghanistan 2001
06 The second Gulf War 2003
07 The US bombing of Libya 2011

Source: Barron’s

The markets hate uncertainty; a proof of this is the average 0.6% drop in the Dow a month prior to the start of the conflict.

However, once the conflict commenced, the Dow quickly turned direction, rising 4% in the first month. The rally did not stop there. Over the next three months, the Dow rose an average 6.7%, and the gains swelled to 7.2% after six months of the start of the conflict.

Therefore, if history repeats itself, a war between the US and North Korea – if it were to happen – will not start the next bear market.

How does gold perform during wars?

Gold is considered as a safe haven during times of uncertainty. Therefore, the yellow metal has rallied from about $1260/toz to about $1360/toz levels, as tensions escalated between North Korea and the US.

But, will gold continue its rally if the war starts?

Economists at Capital Economics have analyzed gold’s performance since 1985, during military conflicts, acts of terror and political tension.

They established that “over the past forty odd years, the price of gold has on average risen by 4.1% in the six months prior to a conflict turning into a full-blown war. However, it barely moved in the months following the event. This makes sense as gold thrives in periods of elevated uncertainty and the start of an armed conflict partly erases that.”

Performance of long-term bonds during wars

Though bonds are also considered as a safe haven investment, their performance has lagged their historical average during wars, according to a study by the CFA Institute. The possible reasons are an increase in inflation during war times and the second is the higher borrowing by the government to fund the war. Due to these two, bond prices fall. Therefore, selling out of stocks and buying bonds fearing a conflict might not prove to be a good strategy. The only aberration was during the gulf war when bonds beat stocks, albeit marginally.

How does the war affect the US dollar?

The evidence of the past three decades shows that the US dollar weakens during war, according to Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management. The US dollar fell 5% when the Libyan war started and fell 9% during the first three months of the second gulf war. The dollar was weak even during the first gulf war.

However, this time, the situation is more complex and a lot of currency movements will depend on whether China actively involves itself in the war or remains neutral. The Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Japanese Yen will see large moves if China supports North Korea directly during the war, else the movement in the currencies is likely to be comparatively subdued.

“As the tensions grow the dollar will suffer and the actual announcement of war could take USD/JPY to 105 but if it’s a swift victory the pair would also recover quickly,” said Kathy.

Though historical evidence gives us some idea about the possibilities, every new war is different because it involves different nations and affects different asset classes.

What sectors will be affected if a war with North Korea takes place?

Commodities

North Korea, in itself, can’t impact commodity prices. However, it is surrounded by nations that are major consumers of commodities. China is one of the major consumers of commodities, however, it is unlikely that the war will impact China’s consumption materially.

South Korea is a major importer of coal and exporter of steel. Both these commodities will be majorly impacted because South Korea will be severely affected if a war breaks out. Similarly, liquified natural gas prices will be affected, as Japan is its largest importer in the world.

The seaborne trade will also be severely affected because China, South Korea, and Japan receive about one-third of the global seaborne crude supplies. Similarly, 84% of the world’s iron ore and 47% of the metallurgical coal reaches the shores of these three nations through the seaborne route.

The agricultural commodities will also be affected because China is a major importer of rice and soybeans while Japan is of corn.

Economic costs of the war

War has both a direct and an indirect impact on the economy. South Korea is a hub for manufacturing liquid crystal displays, semiconductors, and cars. A war will impact these activities, leading to a shortage across the globe. The alternative suppliers can’t bridge the gap in such a short span of time.  Therefore, prices of various electronic products are likely to rise significantly, which will impact the developed economies, including the US.

“U.S. spending on electronic items, including smart phones, cameras, tablets and computers accounts for roughly 1 percent of the consumer price inflation basket. If a war in Korea caused prices of these items to double, it would add 1 percentage point to U.S. inflation,” a report by the research consultancy Capital Economics warned, reports CNBC.

If inflation rises sharply, the Central Banks will be forced to raise interest rates, jeopardizing the fledgling global economic recovery.

Additionally, if South Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) falls by about 50% due to war, it will reduce the global GDP by 1 percentage point, according to the report.

Once the war ends, South Korea will need huge capital to rebuild its infrastructure. If the US involves itself and ends up spending the same amount as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan, then the federal debt will reach 105% of GDP, the economists at Capital Economics warned.

Conclusion

Though historical evidence suggests that the equity market returns are better than average during a war, the situation might be different this time because of the nations involved. Any jolt to the weak economic recovery across the globe will dent the confidence of the investors. Therefore, we don’t expect the stock markets to rise substantially during the war.

Gold’s performance is somewhat neutral and it can be used to protect the value of the portfolio. Therefore, selling some overvalued stocks and buying gold might be a good strategy if a war seems imminent.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 8 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending