Connect with us

Analysis

Markets Prepare for Next Move as Fed Minutes Loom

Published

on

Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2425 -0.03%
DAX 12430 -0.04
WTI Crude Oil 46.20 -1.81%
GOLD 1220.00 0.09%
Bitcoin 2575 -1.58%
EUR/USD 1.1324 -0.22%

Markets still seem to be stuck in the “long-weekend” mood after the quiet period around the US Independence Day. Volumes and Volatility are low around the globe and the major stock indices are trading in their recent narrow ranges. The Arab States that sent an ultimatum to Qatar are meeting today in Cairo to discuss the answer by the Gulf State, and a confrontative move could serve as a trigger for the next major shift in the main asset classes. Oil is already down in early trading today following the strong bounce of the past week, while the Dollar also continues to rally, reversing some of its recent losses.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currency markets are otherwise calm, in line with the broader trends, as investors are waiting for today key releases of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. Central banks were the main drivers in of forex trends recently and the Fed’s future policies are the most important ones for all of the major currencies. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see another bullish counter-trend move from the Greenback, as the recent plunge drove sentiment to a bearish short-term extreme. The Australian Dollar continues to be active following the RBA’s meeting yesterday, with the dip in gold and oil also weighing on the currency, together with the Canadian Dollar.

Cryptocurrencies

The crypto market is mixed today, with diverging performances from the majors and the small cap coins as well. Ethereum and Bitcoin are slightly lower, although the primary support levels are holding for now and there is no strong downside momentum. Among the relatively strong coins, Dash is testing its all-time highs, while Litecoin bounced off its overnight highs after nearing some long-term target levels. Zcash, Stratis, Bitshares, and NEM are among the weaker currencies today after their recent rally, as range trading continues to be dominant in the segment.

Dash, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX is in a holding pattern inside the crucial support zone that we have been monitoring in the previous weeks, with the 12,500 and 12,350 levels being in focus. The long-term uptrend has been broken last week, and, for now, the trend is bearish although the oversold short-term MACD suggest more consolidation before the next leg lower. We expect a test of the support zone around 12,200 efore a meaningful move higher could develop.

DAX 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:30 UK Services PMI 53.4 53.5 53.8
16:00 US Factory Orders -0.4% -0.2%
20:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
3:30 AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 1.11 bill 0.56 bill
9:15 SWITZERLAND CPI Index 0.0% 0.25
13:30 EUROZONE Monetary Meeting Accounts
14:15 US ADP Employment Change 181,000 253,000
14:30 CANADA Trade Balance -0.5 bill -0.4 bill
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 245,000 244,000
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.6 56.9
17:00 US Crude Oil Inventories 0.2% 0.2%

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Analysis

Crypto Update: Altcoin Season Is On The Horizon

Published

on

Altcoin season is a term used in social media and other online communities to describe the part of the market cycle where altcoins, such as Ethereum or Ripple, experience a meteoric rise in value against Bitcoin and the US Dollar. During this period, many altcoins enter a parabolic state that enables them to grow anywhere from 200% to 3000%. This was the case in the last alt season, which was from December 2017 to January 2018.

While this highly anticipated season can bring a lot of profits, it can also end in disaster to those who fail to correctly time the market. During the last season, many were slaughtered as they entered only after news of market explosions. Little did they know that they were already buying the top. Therefore, it is crucial to enter positions just before the season starts. The price movements in the last two months have given us reasons to believe that altcoins are preparing for a bull run.

In this article, we reveal why we believe that the altcoin season is on the horizon.

Altcoin Market Cap Appears to be Bottoming Out

The altcoin market cap is the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies minus Bitcoin’s market capitalization. We use this measure to track the amount of capital going in and out of all altcoins. The largest altcoin market cap ever recorded was at $554.916 billion in January 2018. Since then, the numbers have nosedived and even touched $78 billion in September. That’s an 85% devaluation.

The good news is $78 billion may have been the bottom as the entire altcoin market is working hard to generate a bullish higher low setup.

Altcoin market cap daily chart

A quick look at the daily chart reveals that the altcoin market chart is creating an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This structure is one of the most reliable patterns to indicate that the bottom is in. The higher low (right shoulder) tells us that participants are willing to buy at a higher price.

Bitcoin Dominance Looks Toppish

The Bitcoin dominance chart monitors the percentage of the cryptocurrency capital that can be attributed to Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance has been on the up and up ever since it bottomed out at 32% on January 12, 2018. It climbed as high as 58% on September 9, but it has been sputtering since. This is a very good sign for altcoins.

A look at the chart reveals that Bitcoin dominance is toppish. It is moving near the apex of a rising wedge. More importantly, it appears to have created a bearish lower high setup. As we always say, the lower high kills bullish momentum.

What does it mean for altcoins and the alt season?

First, this chart doesn’t necessarily show that Bitcoin’s capital is decreasing. On the contrary, Bitcoin’s market cap is in the process of creating a higher low, which means money is flowing into the market. So if Bitcoin’s capitalization is not decreasing, then it would mean that new capital is being injected into altcoins. To be more accurate, altcoins appear to be growing at a faster pace than Bitcoin at the moment.

This would explain the bullish higher low setup of the altcoin market cap. Significantly more money is coming than leaving. Investments are flooding in that it threatens to send Bitcoin dominance into a downtrend.

Bottom Closely Resembles 2014 Bear Market

Technical analysis is the study of historical price movement. This is one of the reasons why we keep going back to the 2014 bear market. We study it to see if participants are behaving the way they did back then. What we discovered was surprising.

2014 altcoin bear market

During the 2014 bear market, altcoin market capitalization suffered a 86% devaluation in 38 weeks before it established a bottom. In today’s bear market, the altcoin market cap plummeted 85% in 36 weeks. From the looks of it, the bottom was already established on the 36th weekly bar on September 10, 2018.

2018 altcoin bear market

These are astonishing resemblances in terms of percentage loss and bear market length. If the resemblance continues, as clues suggest, then the altcoin season may be around the corner.

Bottom Line

The altcoin season can be profitable to people who enter the markets right before the explosion. In our analysis, we showed the stabilizing altcoin market capitalization, weakening of Bitcoin dominance, and mirroring to the 2014 bear market. All these clues tell us that alt season is on the horizon.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
7 votes, average: 4.71 out of 57 votes, average: 4.71 out of 57 votes, average: 4.71 out of 57 votes, average: 4.71 out of 57 votes, average: 4.71 out of 5 (7 votes, average: 4.71 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

3.7 stars on average, based on 253 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Altcoins

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD Bulls Have the Potential to Capitalize, Following a Bullish Technical Set Up

Published

on

  • BCH/USD broke out and retested a long-running descending trend line, but has failed to capitalize on this further.
  • George Hotz, also known as Geohot, says “Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin.”
  • CoinText.io expands its Bitcoin Cash payment SMS service to Brazil and further European countries. 

“Bitcoin Cash is the Real Bitcoin”

George Hotz, also known as Geohot, an American entrepreneur and hacker, was recently commenting on Bitcoin Cash. Following the BCH Devcon in San Francisco he attended, Geohot demonstrated how to generate a BCH private key from scratch using python coding.

During his python video, George spoke highly of Bitcoin Cash. He said, “I’m using Bitcoin Cash because it’s the real bitcoin.” His reasoning for the preference of BCH over BTC was due to it having significantly lower transaction fees. Stating, “Transaction fees are super low on bitcoin cash.”

Bitcoin Cash Being Used in Brazil with CoinText.io

SMS cryptocurrency payment service, CoinText, has launched their services in Brazil and three other European countries – Poland, Romania and Croatia. CoinText doesn’t require apps, logins or Internet, and users can send Bitcoin Cash via SMS. A new wallet is automatically created when people have received Bitcoin Cash via SMS.

Specifically commenting on the Brazilian expansion, CoinText founder and CTO said, “Brazilians have been suffering from corruption and bad monetary policy,” says CoinText founder and CTO Vin Armani. “Cryptocurrency offers a way for them to peacefully opt out of a corrupt system.”

A move in which is further helping the adoption of Bitcoin Cash, via the CoinText service, he further noted, “Adding Poland, Croatia and Romania brings us closer to connecting the entire continent of Europe,” Armani added. “CoinText’s end-of-year goal is to enable all 740 million European residents to text money to each other’s phones for pennies.”

Technical Review – Daily Chart

BCH/USD daily chart

BCH/USD price action of late has been very much mundane following a promising breakout from a long-running descending trend line. It had been contained below and rejected on several occasions, from the back end of July. Bulls managed to pull off a decent breakout to the upside, which took place between 26-27th September.

After observing the break above, then pullback for a retest of the breached trend line, it looked very promising. This as such played out to the textbook, however bulls failed to capitalize and drive further north. Instead, the price remained within a consolidation nature, a lack of commitment in either direction. Perhaps the bulls are sitting on the launchpad, ready to send this into orbit, time will tell here.

Looking at technical areas of interest, to the upside, resistance has capped upside well into $500 territory. Tracking from $455-80, which has been evident the past few sessions. A firm push higher, will allow $550 region to come back into play. In terms of buyers, they can be found from the current price, all the way down to $400 the round figure.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Turn Lower After Choppy Weekend

Published

on

The major cryptocurrencies are slightly lower today in early trading, as Sunday’s modest rally faded away without major technical progress. Most of the coins are stuck in narrow trading ranges, and last week’s spike well above the current price levels, as buyers failed to take control of the market.

That said, we haven’t seen strong negative momentum either, and although the bearish long-term setups remain intact, there is no immediate danger of new bear market lows in the segment.

Patience is still the name of the game for crypto investors, since there is no evidence of a broader trend change that would justify a more constructive investment position. Our trend model is on sell signals across the board on both time frames, and the bearish pressures are still apparent on the charts, even considering the lengthy consolidation period. Given the negative long-term trends, odds still favor a test of the lows in most case, particularly in the light of the lack of bullish leadership.

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While most of the majors are still above the lows hit just before the Tether-turmoil, there are several relatively weak coins that could lead the market lower in the coming weeks. Especially Ethereum, Liteocin, Dash, and EOS point a negative picture of the market, while Ripple and Bitcoin are still the most encouraging form a bullish standpoint, even as they also failed to signs of bullish momentum.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is back near the $6400 level today, after drifting towards the $6500 resistance during yesterday’s rally,  but the coin is still well clear of the $6275 support level, trading clearly within last Monday’s range. Our trend model continues to be on a short-term sell signal, while the long-term picture is still neutral for the largest digital currency.

Traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here with further resistance levels ahead near $6750 and $7000 and with support levels below $6275 found near $6000, $5850 and between $5000 and $5100.

Altcoins Slightly Lower as Stellar Fails to Break Out

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple and Stellar have been showing some positive signs last week, but they both failed to make significant technical progress, confirming the segment-wide selling pressure. Ripple is threatening to move below the $0.42-$0.46 level, despite the rally above its triangle consolidation pattern, and a break below $0.42 would likely trigger a test of the $0.355 support.

For now, the short-term sell signal remains in place due to the lack of follow-through, and traders should be cautious with new positions. Strong resistance is still ahead at $0.51, $0.54, $0.57, while further, weak support is found near $0.375.

Stellar/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar is trading very close to the key long-term support zone near $0.24 that has been dominating trading for several weeks, and despite the rally attempts, the coin is still not out of its bear market. That said, should a broader trend change occur, Stellar would likely be among the leaders of renewed advance, but for now, traders and investors should still stay away from the coin.

The declining long-term trend is intact, with strong resistance levels ahead near $0.265 and $0.2835, while support levels are found near $0.235, $0.21, and $0.1935.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is still stuck in a very narrow range after the weekend, with the $200 support/resistance level still being in the center of attention. The bearish broader setup is unchanged in ETH’s market, with the coin still being relatively weak among the majors.

Traders and investors shouldn’t open new positions her, with further support found near $180, $170, and $160, and with strong resistance zones ahead near $235 and $260.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending