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Op-Ed

Market Waves and ADA Research

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How about it, guys and gals! Good job not throwing your computers out of the window and hodling on. I wish I could tell you anything about why we dipped into the BTC four-figure category, but my guess is as good as yours. The cryptocurrency markets work according to fear, and if you stand up to the virtual lion you can make a lot of money. Everything in my last article is up roughly 20-40%. That isn’t my expertise in crypto picking, the wave just came in.

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Nobody knows when it will come back again, so you have to trust your price picking. Everything became not-so-attractive within a morning trade. By the time I looked on the exchanges, everything was low, but not so low that it was attractive to buy. The market tests all of us. We just dropped for regulation whispers. Regulation enforcement could rock this ship off course again, which is why profit taking is so important. I am not telling you to go buy a nice new couch. I am telling you that you saw how quickly a 30-40% gain can happen. When the wave goes back out to sea, that’s when you jump in. I am always ready.

Let’s see, of the unattractive prices, I have been inundated with social media buzz about ADA. I have previously owned some appreciated ADA ,which was wonderful. Speculation can have treasures. However, I became very skeptical of high supply coins, and lessened my exposure. As I continue to learn as quickly as I can about this crazy world, the “P” word came up about ADA, which intrigued me.

ADA

Charles Hoskinson is a very smart man who was part of the Ethereum project, before a difference of opinion drove him out of the loop. He left to work on the Cardano project. IOHK is his development arm that has been contracted to develop Cardano. Emurgo is the commercial arm that supports the business applications on Cardano.

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Difference of opinion people are double edged swords. Just like our old pal Jed at Lumens, the divergent characters can be the ones who open the gates of Valhalla through innovation, or the gates of Hell through hubris. I won’t be able to tell you who Charles is yet, because there simply isn’t enough information. From the things I have listened to, he is a very intelligent man with very distinct goals (plural).

Cardano is an Ethereum-like platform that has advanced smart contract technology, and a unique technical infrastructure. About 97% of the ICO volume was from Japan, and many people are speculating its wide scale adoption through ATMs and payment systems in one of the most tech savvy places in the world. Those are big goals.

Nuts and Bolts

Proof of Stake: This is a much faster, streamlined, and energy efficient method compared to proof of work. When you see people running mining farms and having to calculate electricity costs, you can’t think that this is going to be a sustainable way of doing business. China has been kicking energy hogs out of the country, and I don’t know why we go two steps forward with blockchain, but one step back with big fans and mining farms in low cost areas. It just doesn’t seem like something that is going to carry forward, at least in the way it is being done now.

Ouroboros and the Epoch System: Scheduled mining. The Chain is divided into Epochs. Those Epochs are divided into slots. Not everyone can mine slots at once, and they elect slot leaders who can mine a specific block in their “slot”. I believe this regulated way of mining allows the miner to not to have to play (and cost) the equivalent of an entire Metal Gear Solid story map (12 times in a row) to get anything done, while also giving Cardano the ability to scale it at their own pace, by making more slots in each Epoch, or making more Epochs to fill with slots. That’s the deepest technology jargon you will hear from me. I am attaching the link of a wonderful explanation that would do it 100 times better than I.

Network System: Instead of all data needing to go to all nodes, they have networks of nodes that will store local information to the network, but with the added ability of communicating with other networks. This sounds like the internet of/for miners. Just like the internet in the 1990s, it all has to start with the tech people talking to each other on it. Back then, it was the government. However, people came along and designed software and web browsers that made it a public product, and not a technical one. I am hoping local miner communication/storage is just the beginning of the use of this infrastructure on the blockchain.

Treasury System: This was a fantastic business idea. For each transaction, Cardano places a portion of the revenue into a smart contracts based treasury. The treasury awards money based on people submitting improvement proposals to the network, in which their peers will review their proposal and vote on the ones they believe will most benefit Cardano. If there is a smart contract designed to award money to innovative people in perpetuity at Cardano, I wouldn’t see why someone wouldn’t keep coming back to the well that always has water?

Goals, Goals, and more Goals

“Cardano is home to the Ada cryptocurrency, which can be used to send and receive digital funds. This digital cash represents the future of money, making possible fast, direct transfers that are guaranteed to be secure through the use of cryptography.

Cardano is more than just a cryptocurrency, however, it is a technological platform that will be capable of running financial applications currently used every day by individuals, organisations and governments all around the world.” (Source:https://www.cardanohub.org/en/what-is-cardano/)

There are so many projects within Cardano. I love its goals, but I just want to know which one will make coin holders the most money. Its claim of a “separate computing layer” sounds like the one I like the most for this reason. If we have a long and windy road of being a community coin until we get to business coin, I am not interested. That may not be the case at all, and we begin to see some real commercial use going on. It is quite early.

Conclusion

Overall, Charles has a broad array of global people working for him, making a “better” ADA coin. Right now, I can’t see what a “better” ADA coin is in their minds. There are so many goals listed (Interoperability, Scalability, Sustainability), not to mention sub-sects within the goals. I would love to tell you about target markets and competition, but they are going after everyone! They are trying to design an all-in-one blockchain/crypto that can be the unified solution. I can’t qualify an all-in-one coin on a SWOT analysis.

Time is going to tell us which one of these goals is the focus. Here in lies the bet. I am exposed to ADA, but not in a way I am to the other platforms. With billions in circulating supply, this wasn’t meant to be a gigantic coin like bitcoin. At $0.60, there is certainly money to be made, but this is more a small speculation bet until I hear more about customer types, and primary target markets.

I see a lot of currencies throwing all types of money at technical developers, but not business people. A lot of currencies could brush up their image if they knew how to talk to people who have their coins. If you go on Shark Tank or Dragon’s Den saying your competition is everyone and your market is everyone, you better have a darn good sales pitch. I would start by creating a hierarchy of needs to be completed according to what will derive the most coin holder value, not what is going to be the most revolutionary. Time will tell with Cardano.

 

 

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell cryptocurrencies. I hope this is helping you in your thought process on a flat’ish day so you can reap the benefits of the market at any given time. I hope you make money, but your decisions should never be based on anyone else. I have never heard a rich man say, “I just listened to an article on the internet…and BOOM”. Don’t think that will be you.

Do follow me @raijincrypto on Twitter if you would like to chat on cryptocurrencies.

 

 

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Op-Ed

Blockzero Jed McCaleb Interview: My Outlook on XLM

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In terms of price trends, we recently saw a bit of a dip, with Ethereum and bitcoin losing about 10% no reason. I am staying away from this market until it starts to act according to good news and bad news. All of this bouncing around for no reason just smells like market manipulation and/or stupidity. Two things I don’t trade into.

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As I have looked through the content YouTube “stars” and some of the more well-known cryptocurrency enthusiasts are putting out, I am noticing one shocking thing. They come up with new coins daily to invest in. They just poof one out of thin air, they say how great the idea (not the business) is, and that it could change stuff. Wow. Well, I pride my reputation on being a broken record. I only like 4-5 coins, and I only talk about those coins. I don’t invest in anything else, nor do I want to talk about anything else. Stellar Lumens is one of those coins, and a great interview just came out with CEO Jed McCaleb. Although I have followed what Jed has said throughout Stellar’s business cycle since 2014, hearing him talk about the market right now (as of Feb. 8) was something I sorely needed as an investor when XLM is trading at a mere $0.38.

Most of these coin projects have founders who shouldn’t be anywhere near a microphone, as their explanations of their businesses is actually detrimental to marketing, not helpful. Digging into deep technical jargon on a public forum when you are supposed to be marketing your coin is not helping anyone. There are so few people who understand blockchain that companies are paying high s9x figure salaries for amateurs. Marketing should be an explanation on who’s buying, why, and how much. Jed did exactly that in his interview. He talks faster than a New York City stock broker on speed, but wants to provide only information that will give investors better insight into the XLM business; not the deep tech of the coin. I will touch on some of the key points that I loved: update on corporate relationships, innovations for public use, and ICO platform.

Corporate Relationships

CEOs are not often people who talk candidly. They are the head salespeople of the firm, and everything has to be perfect at the company. Jed is taking a humble blockchain approach. He wants to make sure that the record is straight about what partners are doing at Stellar, and how it will help/affect XLM specifically. Case in point: he said explicitly that bank relationships are far off for Stellar, and the market as a whole. He admitted the banks he works with are very early on in the sales cycle, and that 1,000+ year incumbents aren’t too used to working with new entrants. The trial runs and beta versions are all common practices in every industry. They don’t mean adoption. This was a surprise to me. I was under the assumption that these banks had a fire lit under them to catch up to blockchain. It seems they aren’t in a hurry, or just making it seem that way.

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This is where it gets good. Jed has since re-shifted focus to companies that he knows will be immediate adopters, just because of how easily it can fit into their structure. Remittance companies (Western Union, Moneygram, etc.) are the low hanging fruit in his mind. These are high volume transfers of cash, with high fees to come with it. The biggest demographic of remittances are obviously foreign workers, who also happen to be the last people who can afford to spend 5-10% of their capital on transfer fees. With an industry size of $500 billion in 2016, remittances can feed quite a few companies that have friendly corporate technology.

XLM is a shell. It can take form of fiat currency, transfer anywhere in the world, and settle in a bank account in any currency. There are 300 coins that claim they can be the new PayPal, and most them are still spouting off about decentralization. This is a company that wants control mechanisms so it can give tangible control to their corporate customers.

The way he spoke about his corporate partnerships is translucent. He doesn’t tweet (says he only watches, not talks) out random fodder that happens each day. He wants to be the business person that people can depend on. People will go back and read through the information that all of these coins put out during late 2017/early 2018. I think his spot in the annals of the crypto boom will prove to be very noble. I am happy with remittances, and I am happy he was open that banks just aren’t there yet. I haven’t heard anyone else admit it, have you?

Public Use

I was unaware of the infrastructural scope that Stellar has built since 2014. Jed created a conglomerate, not a business. He has a platform for the public to launch DAPPs/smart contracts, token offerings, and an exchange soon capable of atomic swaps (no base currency; you can trade LTC for KMD). His main goal is to create an exchange capable of housing the U.S. cryptocurrency market, while also having ICOs launching on it in tandem. The recent $30 million ICO of Mobius (I don’t invest in any ICOs) had all the looks and smells of a compliant offering. If the exchanges play well with the government, we can see some very big moves.

The next public project was partnered out. Because remittances are so large, the big companies are just necessary evils in the early adoption phase. He is working with a confidential company on creating a global Venmo-type network that can work directly with any kind of bank account. You can send USD from an American bank account, and it will deposit in yen in a Japanese bank account. All on the app in 3-5 seconds. XLM was designed specifically for this purpose, and its use cases are beginning to take up speed. XLM is the sought after technology, not private chaining. I am very excited to see what he comes up with here because this fiat currency settlement mechanism is almost monopolistic right now.

ICOs

Staying far away from ICOs right now, even Stellar’s. But that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t find the winning race horse before the race. Stellar’s platform works with fiat currency, and it can launch ICOs. Need I say more? I have harped on this fact many times, but this is just too good not to repeat. If central banks, corporations, institutions, and high net-worth individuals feel comfortable enough with Stellar’s way of handling their native paper currencies, we could see Regulation D token securities being offered on Stellar. Big American business is waiting for the rulebook to be written, and then they will pounce. Stellar is already working with banks in the South Pacific with America’s tech darling IBM: we are seeing the heir being groomed in my opinion. All of the information listed is leading to me to a rather large conclusion.

Conclusion

My conclusion is getting fast out of XRP, and putting it all into XLM. XRapid, Xcurrent, X-me out of this XRP business. Ripple is creating blockchain systems, and has gotten the taste of private chain revenue. Their coin does not need to be used, and each company they work with has specific press releases saying they aren’t using XRP.  On the contrary, we have the head of blockchain for IBM saying they love XLM, and are actively working together to introduce it to banks. XLM, not just Stellar. That is crucial for coin holders. I am not running over to the computer to sell right now, but I will get up to my basis, and exit. I will most likely keep some for a Coinbase push, but XLM needs more of Raiden’s money. Jed McCaleb has created 3 gigantic blockchain companies (Mt. Gox, Ripple, Stellar), and smart money doesn’t bet against him. I sure won’t be.

 

This is not a recommendation to buy cryptocurrencies. I am not buying or selling anything right now, and I suggested you don’t either. If you do, be aware of the risks. I wish you the best of luck.

Disclaimer: The author has an investment stake in XRP.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Op-Ed

Who Killed The ICO?

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For all the hype and chatter we listened to going back to last year, initial coin offerings have suddenly gone dead.  The entire month of January 2018 raised only $52 million according to ICOWatchlist.com.  In the halcyon days this was the rate of  inflow every three days (it’s important to note that crowdfunding amounts vary, but there seems to be a general downtrend in the market from the data we were able to collect). What happened and what does it mean?  First, let’s take a look at some numbers that may bore you but help illustrate the point.

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Last year produced just under $4 billion in fresh capital to fund startups. According to ICOWatchList, $1.8 billion was raised in the five months ending in October.  About 78% of the ICOs used the Ethereum platform.  This explosion helps us understand some of the energy that pushed Ethereum into the forefront of the cryptocurrency sweepstakes.  Between Halloween and mid January the price of Ether quadrupled in value hitting $1338 (Coinbase).

Investors suddenly viewed Ethereum as the poster child for ICOs.  Obviously the open source nature of its blockchain platform along with its smart contracts feature offered a natural fit for startups looking to raise capital.

The reality, of course, is the use cases for Ethereum go vastly beyond facilitating ICOs but for an investing public getting started on crypto investing, it didn’t matter.  When outsized returns are being achieved, who needs to understand the details.

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ICOs Get a Bad Rap

In recent weeks a lot of bad press has been earned by certain bad actors in the ICO space.  Much has been written about the cryptocurrency startup Confido. Someone posing by the name Joost Van Doorn raises and then vanishes with about $375,000 sometime just after November 15th.   Trouble was Joost also deleted the Confido website and his presence on LinkedIn and Facebook.

Subsequently, Mr. Van Doorn resurfaced and is working to make financial amends but the media has yet to say much about this side of the story.

Some analysts of ICOs claim the incident of scamming with ICOs runs a high as 20%.  It is difficult to verify how these numbers are derived.  These and related ICO stories can not be helping instill investor confidence.  

Regulation of ICOs Would Be a Mistake

There is an argument suggesting that in order to improve the ICO marketplace, it should be regulated presumably by some authority such as the US Securities & Exchange Commission for example.

Here is why that won’t work.  The presence of ICOs have their origins in crowdfunding, that being the outgrowth of The Jobs Act passed during post financial crisis by the Obama Administration.  The whole purpose was to create pathways for unregulated capital raising by young companies.  To date ICOs have evolved into the most efficient way to accomplish the goals of The Jobs Act.  

One of the most compelling arguments in favor of ICOs is their ability to circumvent the jaws of venture capitalists.  In a typical arrangement for a young company to raise money a VC might demand a 50% equity stake and a lengthy 5-7 year lock up in exchange for providing just the first few million in capital.  By the end of the lock up, the company may have many more millions in capital but the founders are left with just a sliver of equity.

Last year three companies: Tazos, Filecoin and Finney went the ICO route raising a total of nearly $600 million without giving up equity.  This represents democracy in the capital market and that is a good thing.

Misconception About Size of Offerings

One of the biggest misconceptions about ICOs relates to the perception that they are all  tiny little startup companies that have little more than a whitepaper and a wish for fast cash. Reality is there were thousands of ICOs that were attempted last year but few went very far.

ICO Watchlist data covers about half of all capital raised last year: about $2.3 billion. The average ICO raised nearly $40 million and that is required some greater substance that a whitepaper and a wish.  Granted that the data is bias toward larger sized offerings but that does not reduce the importance that ICOs are playing in the capital formation process.   

Institutional Investment Opportunity

Rather than tighter regulation of ICO, there should be tighter research on the buy side.  For the individual investor this could present a problem.  How much research can one person do if 20 or more ICO come to market in a short period like a single month.  This is where Venture Capital and hedge funds with their well staffed analytical departments have the edge: 2018 could be the year it happens.  

Here is the key point for institutions everywhere.  Global stock markets are clearly overvalued based on interest rates.  The shaken US market is confirming this fact.  This raises the question of relative risk.  Is there greater risk in global equity markets than in cryptocurrencies?  The answer appears to be yes and that will increasingly favor cryptocurrencies.  

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.3 stars on average, based on 19 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Op-Ed

SEC Meeting and Aftermath: My Thoughts

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On Feb. 6, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee met with the SEC and CFTC on how to regulate cryptocurrency. The meeting was surprisingly better than expected from where I am sitting. They are going to be letting the free markets dictate a significant amount of the outcomes of these coins, but regulate in the places where they think they can help investors not get screwed over. The two initiatives that they seemed to be interested in were primary offerings and secondary market monitoring.

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Primary Offerings

If you were thinking of offering a coin any time soon, things got a lot trickier. The key point in the meeting was that any token/coin that comes out should be classified as a security. Don’t be fooled by vague language on utility tokens vs. security tokens. You can still raise the GDP of small countries with these instruments, which means they want you to classify them based on what they are capable of doing. This is a big issue.

When you classify something as a security, you have to go through an advanced offering just like any other non-blockchain company. You need buyer personal information, tax information, and you need to begin reporting your inflows/outflows to the government so they can tax you properly. The way you offer the coins will be through something called a “Regulation D” offering, which gives you the ability to solicit accredited (another word for somewhat-wealthy) investors. In other words, the government has put a “you must be this tall to ride this ride” sign up for all offerings. This limits the amount of buying parties in an offering, and will most likely affect the scale of fundraising compared to what we have seen in the past.

The days of someone opening up a website and asking for ether in exchange for ICO tokens is all but gone. I am very nervous about security ICOs for one verifiable reason. In order to get on an exchange, you need to have legal proof you are not a security. Ask CZ at Binance if you don’t believe me. So, if you’re an ICO investor, you have to perform extreme due diligence on how the coin is being offered, and where it is being offered from.

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If the coin is being offered from the Caymen Islands and you don’t need to do any paperwork to get in, you probably should go ahead and skip it right now. The SEC has already started calling out companies that are doing this, and there is no reason to give away precious ether for such a large risk of intervention.

Buying a coin as a security is not much better. A Regulation D offering is to ensure that anyone who bought the coin understands the risks. But how does the investor sell when no exchange in town is willing to touch them with a 10 foot pole? Perhaps we may see a Robinhood or Coinbase offering security tokens/coins on their exchange. No one knows just yet, and I am not betting on the outcome.

Secondary Market Monitoring

Regulators’ mention of secondary market monitoring was something I viewed as positive. There is wide scale market manipulation by people who have large amounts of bitcoin, and wield it like a sword whenever there is volatility in an exchange. There is also a significant amount of hacking, as we saw with NEM getting taken for more than $400 million. The sooner we can get identify bad actors and get them out, the sooner we can get mom and pop to invest portions of their IRAs in cryptocurrency ETFs. It will not happen until the playing field has been leveled, and the government feels that they have made a good marketplace for all investors, not just accredited ones.

What was purposely left vague in this meeting is how the coins that are already out going to be classified. These Asian marketplaces would be all but shuttered if the U.S. government holistically reclassified all coins as securities. Their businesses would be instantly in violation of the law for running unlicensed securities marketplaces, which means your money is now in jeopardy. This is where my strong suggestion will come in handy.

My To-do List for All Investors

I have mentioned on Twitter many, many times the importance of cold storage. There is absolutely no reason to have any money on an exchange right now. We just saw Binance shut down for “technical reasons” and I can assure you that this will not be the last time it happens. If you buy a Ledger Nano S/Trezor (Ledgers were sold out last time I checked their website… a good sign), you can store your coins via USB and never worry about anything having to do with hacks, exchange technical difficulties, and of course, it helps you hodl that much better when the opportunity arises.

Get out of short term plays. If you are trying to make a quick buck on the new privacy coin either in an ICO or secondary market trade, it just is too risky right now. We have bitcoin still under $10,000 with fantastic news, so why not just let the storm die down a little bit? We can wait for bitcoin to dust itself off, and then take a look at what deals we can get on certain coins.

Set alerts on Ethereum. The only thing I would ever buy right now is Ethereum at a good price. That price for me is $500 (okay maybe $550). If I see a price in that range, I will be buying. The Ethereum blockchain has so many people/companies working on it, that I think it’s place in blockchain is probably the least vulnerable right now. About 70-80% of all market cap in tokens is Ethereum-based tokens. Solidity, the coding language of Ethereum, seems to be very popular on job boards. People are looking for people to help them with Ethereum projects. To me, this means great things, and I will buy at good prices. No need to buy at $900. If it goes to $1,500 in a couple days, I will not feel bad. The risk will not match the reward.

 

None of what I am saying is financial advice. I am giving you life advice in saying that a cold storage wallet is vital. We may see some shady characters trying to make money from shutting down their exchanges and taking money with them. I think the next time I need to sell my coins will be when I can go to a regulated trading desk and ask them to slowly sell my holdings, and do carry forward losses so I am not destroyed with a 40% tax bill at the end of the year. It’s time to start thinking strategically, not financially.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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