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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Rally Continues as Dash and Monero Lead the Way

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The cryptocurrency market already provided huge moves once again this weekend, as Dash and Monero surged to new all-time highs in the otherwise low volume environment. Monero touched $150, while Dash topped $400 on the way, as XMR and Dash are now up by 400% and 200% since the July correction lows. Apart from the two coins, Ripple has been the most active major of the week, first doubling in value following a break-out, then falling 30% in the second half of the period, still being above last week’s levels. The currency is near the line-in-the sand support/resistance zone near $0.22, and it would be crucial to hold above that level to keep the rising trend intact.

XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

Bitcoin also had a volatile week, with a steep drop and a quick recovery above the $4000 level near its all-time high. Ethereum, LItecoin, NEM, and Ethereum Classic are little changed since last week compared to their peers, with ETC still lagging the other majors, despite a break-out from its declining trend. NEO concluded its short-term correction during the week, and it rallied back to the $40 level after bottoming out near $30. All in all, the market is still bullish, but the overall capitalization of the coins is stuck near $155 billion, suggesting that a broader correction might be in the works, following the BTC-led surge.

Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

BTC touched $3600 during its Monday correction, but it’s now back near $4400, just below the all-time high. The coin is still overbought after the almost 150% rally in one month, and we still expect a deeper correction in the coming weeks. That said, another push higher is still possible, but only short-term traders should enter new positions here, as investors should wait until the overbought reading is cleared.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is still struggling to stay above the crucial $330 level, although the short-term uptrend remains intact, and the long-term momentum is not in overbought territory yet. With the looming Metropolis update, the coin could turn volatile in the coming period, but we still expect a rally to at least $380. Strong support is found at $300 and $285, while the all-time are ahead near $400.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin briefly traded on a new high this week, but it failed to sustain the break-out so far, and now it’s trading just above $50. The MACD indicator is bullish in neutral territory, giving ample space for the currency to rally. The coin remains above the prior triangle consolidation pattern, also suggesting a move towards $60 in the coming period. Strong support is found at $46, at $44 and near $38 with primary resistance ahead around $57.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Dash is on the move for the second weekend in a row, this time posting a new high near $400. The coin continues to be overbought, and now we expect an imminent correction. That said, the short-term uptrend is still intact but long-term investors shouldn’t open new positions here. Key support levels are found at $300, and $265.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic experienced a weak break-out attempt from its dominant declining trend, but it failed to hold above the $16 level suggesting more sideways price action. A move above $16 would open up the way to $18, and the all-time high at $23. With the long-term momentum still being neutral, the key support zone around $14 should hold the price of the currency.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero surged above the $100 level in late trading yesterday, and surpassed all of the long-term targets to get close to $150. The move triggered a long-term sell signal, and we advise long-term investors to wait with opening new positions until the next major correction. The steep short-term uptrend is intact with support levels at $100, $80, and $68.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. tieuthanhliem

    August 27, 2017 at 4:11 am

    Instead of just saying bitcoin is overbought, can you forecast when the correction is going to happen. Bitcoin correction is going to affect the whole market. Will the market down anytime soon?

    Your analasys made me sell all of my Bitcoin, not at cheap price. But I sold some of my Lisk because I believe bitcoin correction is going to happen soon but NOT. It is not happen anytime soon. I sold my some of my Lisk at cheap price. Please be careful when you forecast bitcoin correction because you are forecasting the whole market correction.

    I never seen a bitcoin long correction except 2014-2015 duration. For other correction, it only short correction or go down because of bad news. How we can expect a correction soon.
    Bitcoin is diffenrent with other coin.

    Please be careful when you forecast a market correction.

    • badjava

      August 27, 2017 at 5:54 pm

      Nowhere did he say for you to sell your bitcoin or lisk. Take responsibility for your own trades and learn from your mistakes. This site is about educating and guiding you to make sound financial decisions, not handholding your individual decisions. I believe they just launched a new service for more in depth and personal financial advice you might want to look into for that level of service.

  2. tieuthanhliem

    August 27, 2017 at 5:03 am

    And can you provide some news that support the trend for coins that analyzed. That will help reader a lot to make trade decision.

  3. enricogeck

    August 27, 2017 at 4:16 pm

    Yes, doing a technical analysis nowadays isn’t so difficult.. It would be nice to have some fundamental analysis sometimes, like the ones Ph Madore does for icos.

  4. Chris G

    August 27, 2017 at 8:06 pm

    LTC … for … the … win – I started with hacked at a $28k investment. I’m sitting at $62k right now … y’all at havked are gonna have to let me take you to dinner or something. ??????

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Analysis

Goldman Sachs: Even a $7.50B Fine Can’t Take Them Down

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

Last week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) published its Q4 earnings report, in which the main financial indicators exceeded all analysts’ expectations.

The net profit amounted to $2.54B, well above expectations of $1.78B; the revenue reached $8.12B compared with a forecast of $7.5B; finally, the net interest income rose to $898M versus an expected $758M.

The chart shows that Goldman Sachs’ revenues always exceeded the forecast figures. In 2017, the forecasts were quite conservative, with the actual results not much different. In 2018 this bias was already smaller. Based on the data from the chart, one can conclude that 2018 was not the best year for the bank, with revenues falling as predicted, which led to a share price fall, too. Over 2018, the stock lost almost 45% of its value.

Early in the year, the stock was still near the historical highs; then, after the Q1 report release, the price went down, as the report showed worse figures than expected.

Now, the price is increasing sharply, bouncing off its lows. Investors tend to first pay attention to the expected figures, especially if the company has been operating in the market for a long time. In such situations, news has a short-term impact on the price, as this has may times stood the test of time. Goldman Sachs was no exception.

The news on the Malaysian scandal, which broke out in 2015, is still here to stay. The Malaysian authorities accuse bank representatives of bribing officials to get an order for bond placement in 2012-2013. The revenues from those bonds, i.e. $6.5B, were just taken away, without any hint on using them for the local investment. In response, Goldman Sachs pointed out that the bonds were placed for the purpose of raising money for Malaysia, but instead part of the funds was stolen by members of the Malaysian government. As it turned out, the then Prime Minister of Malaysia, Najib Razak, was indeed found to have $681M in his accounts. This was a dead end, however, and indeed officials were very unlikely to punish themselves. Now, when Razak lost the election, the new government launched an anti-corruption investigation and Najib Razak was accused of money laundering, while Goldman Sachs was also charged.

In mid 2015, the stock actually declined, which lasted about a year. Overall, the fall was 37%, but then Goldman was out of the Malaysian scandal and media spoke about corruption in the Asian country. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, people knew very few things, as the media was tightly controlled by the government, and those who dared to report it were immediately closed. As such, The Insider, a Malaysian media, was closed after the very first publication of the article hinting on government corruption.

Therefore, linking the stock decline to the scandal does not work. However, if you follow the chart of the company’s revenues, you’ll understand what really happened.

The chart shows that the revenue forecast for the second quarter of 2015 was already declining, and when the Q2 real income was less than the previous one, both the stock and the prediction went down. Thus, the price directly responded to the decline in forecast indicators for revenues, and the news factor here had virtually no effect on the stock.

In 2016, the stock started recovering with the expectations also going higher. Therefore, the current growth in the value of the stock is directly related to the expectations of the growth of Goldman Sachs earnings in Q1 2019.

As for the possible fine, David Solomon, the Goldman Sachs CEO, decided to play it safe: the bank has already started accumulating money for it.

Technically, on W1 the stock is quite weak, being under 200-day moving average, but in spite of this, there’s still an uptrend, as the MA is going up.

When the stock fell down to its lows at $160, the volume increased drastically, which is one of the most evident signs of a reversal. This will be further confirmed once the 200-day MA gets broken out and the price stays above. But since the price went up sharply from its lows and increased for 4 weeks in a row, a small correction may happen as well.

The price may bounce off the 200-day MA and fall back to $190, after which the rise may resume.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 26 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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Altcoins

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Sellers are Stepping Up Downside Pressure; Explosive Breakout is Imminent

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  • ETH/USD is very much close to a breakout of the recent range-block formation.
  • Diar reports that on-chain transaction value on the Ethereum network was seen at an all-time-high in December 2018.

Over the past three sessions for ETH/USD, a pick-up in downside intensity has been demonstrated by the market bears. The price had been moving within a narrowing range-block formation for going on 12 sessions, but this appears to be coming to an end. Sellers are stepping up the pressure, looking for a breakout of the sideways movement seen of late.

Ethereum On-chain Transaction Value at All-Time-High

Source – Diar

Diar in their latest report detailed that on-chain transaction value hit an all-time-high on the Ethereum network. Diar provide weekly institutional publications in addition to data analysis of digital currencies. Further within this latest publication, the on-chain transaction levels had hit 115 million in December 2018. This marked an all-time high, which excludes the activity after a hard fork caused by the DAO hack in 2016.

In terms of monetary value, Diar stated that the total US dollar value on-chain last year was seen at $815 million. This was down from the previous $1.1 billion, reported in 2017. As a result, this was a 97% drop in the on-chain transaction value. The drop from peak in January versus December 2018 was “by and large the cause of an 80% drop in Ethereum’s price”.

Commenting on fees, Diar detailed that they are unlikely to have been a laggard on the growth for the Ethereum network. It already has some of the lowest fees that are observed for transacting on-chain. They added, “the Constantinople upgrade, now pushed back, will bring down fees a great deal further for certain types of transactions that would allow for better storage use”.

Technical Review – ETH/USD

ETH/USD daily chart.

Key daily support eyed around $117.50 has been penetrated in the past few sessions. Signs are starting to show of a gradual shift again in favor of a bearish bias. The price is running towards its third consecutive session in the red, with the critical support earlier detailed under threat. ETH/USD did have a quick spike of around 15% lower on 20th January before retracing back within the range-block. A firm breach and close of the mentioned $117.50, the lower part of the range-block, could be punishing. Eyes will then be on a retest of the big psychological $100 mark.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 112 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Settle Down After Weekend Pump & Dump

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While crypto bulls had something to cheer about early on during the weekend following a rally attempt in the majors, the move once again failed to improve the technical setup in the segment, and the top coins quickly gave back their gains. Now, most of the coins are trading near the bottom of their short-term ranges and technicals continue to point to the continuation of the bear market.

Correlations are still very high, there is no sign of a developing bullish leadership, and with none of the key coins showing bullish momentum, bulls are facing strong headwinds. While trading volumes and volatility remain relatively low thanks to the range-trading environment a move below primary support could trigger larger moves in the majors soon.

The negative long-term trends are still in no danger, and although there is still a slight chance of a failed break-down pattern to develop in the market, odds favor a bearish short-term outcome as well. With that in mind, traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here, with our trend model being on sell signals on both time-frames in the case of the majority of the coins.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although Bitcoin is still relatively stable compared to its most important peers, it gave back all of its weekend gains and fell back below the key $3600 support/resistance level yesterday. Now, BTC is threatening with a break-down below the prior sing low, and given the recent weakness, our trned model is now on a short-term sell signal.

While bulls could still be saved by a move above $3850, the failed rally attempts warn of selling pressure, and a bearish continuation is more likely here. Further strong resistance is ahead between $4000 and $4050, with support zones still found near $3250 and $3000, and traders should still not enter positions.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum shoed relative weakness during the rally attempt this weekend, and it is now very close to a break below the key swing low, which would likely lead to a move towards the key support zone between $95 and $100. The coin remains on sell single son both time-frames, and with a test of the bear market low near the $80 price level seems likely in the coming weeks.

Strong resistance is ahead just above the current price level and near $130, with further zones at $145, $160, and near $180 while a weak short-term support is found near $112, and the coin’s weakness is a negative sign for the whole segment.

Altcoins Still Weak Despite Rally Attempt

STR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While none of the major altcoins broke the key short-term support levels, the overall picture remains bearish and we haven’t seen signs of resilience that would indicate a short-term bottom and the resumption of the counter-trend move.

Stellar, which has been among the bearish leaders towards the end of 2018, is once again showing relative weakness while following the trends in the broader market, should the coin violate the $0.10 level, a quick to new bear market lows would be likely, with the $0.09 level being the only lone of defense for bulls.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple still seems very fragile from a technical standpoint, and a move below $0.30 looks inevitable in the coming weeks, with a likely test of the bear market low near $0.28. The $32 support/resistance level remains in focus, but given the weak rally attempts and the bearish long-term setup, we don’t expect the coin to get back to the $0.3550 level in the coming period.

Our trend model is still on sell signals on both time-frames, with further strong support found near the $0.26 level, with resistance ahead near $0.3750, and in the key long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is back near the key $30-$30.50 support zone after the volatile weekend, and it also looks ready to dip below that zone, even as the short-term trading range is still intact. The steep long-term downtrend is intact despite the recent counter-trend move, and traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here, with the short-term setup also being bearish. Strong resistance is ahead near $34.50, $38, and $44 with further support found near $26 and $23.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 445 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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