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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Rally Continues as Dash and Monero Lead the Way

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The cryptocurrency market already provided huge moves once again this weekend, as Dash and Monero surged to new all-time highs in the otherwise low volume environment. Monero touched $150, while Dash topped $400 on the way, as XMR and Dash are now up by 400% and 200% since the July correction lows. Apart from the two coins, Ripple has been the most active major of the week, first doubling in value following a break-out, then falling 30% in the second half of the period, still being above last week’s levels. The currency is near the line-in-the sand support/resistance zone near $0.22, and it would be crucial to hold above that level to keep the rising trend intact.

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XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

Bitcoin also had a volatile week, with a steep drop and a quick recovery above the $4000 level near its all-time high. Ethereum, LItecoin, NEM, and Ethereum Classic are little changed since last week compared to their peers, with ETC still lagging the other majors, despite a break-out from its declining trend. NEO concluded its short-term correction during the week, and it rallied back to the $40 level after bottoming out near $30. All in all, the market is still bullish, but the overall capitalization of the coins is stuck near $155 billion, suggesting that a broader correction might be in the works, following the BTC-led surge.

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Bitcoin

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

BTC touched $3600 during its Monday correction, but it’s now back near $4400, just below the all-time high. The coin is still overbought after the almost 150% rally in one month, and we still expect a deeper correction in the coming weeks. That said, another push higher is still possible, but only short-term traders should enter new positions here, as investors should wait until the overbought reading is cleared.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum is still struggling to stay above the crucial $330 level, although the short-term uptrend remains intact, and the long-term momentum is not in overbought territory yet. With the looming Metropolis update, the coin could turn volatile in the coming period, but we still expect a rally to at least $380. Strong support is found at $300 and $285, while the all-time are ahead near $400.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin briefly traded on a new high this week, but it failed to sustain the break-out so far, and now it’s trading just above $50. The MACD indicator is bullish in neutral territory, giving ample space for the currency to rally. The coin remains above the prior triangle consolidation pattern, also suggesting a move towards $60 in the coming period. Strong support is found at $46, at $44 and near $38 with primary resistance ahead around $57.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Dash is on the move for the second weekend in a row, this time posting a new high near $400. The coin continues to be overbought, and now we expect an imminent correction. That said, the short-term uptrend is still intact but long-term investors shouldn’t open new positions here. Key support levels are found at $300, and $265.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic experienced a weak break-out attempt from its dominant declining trend, but it failed to hold above the $16 level suggesting more sideways price action. A move above $16 would open up the way to $18, and the all-time high at $23. With the long-term momentum still being neutral, the key support zone around $14 should hold the price of the currency.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero surged above the $100 level in late trading yesterday, and surpassed all of the long-term targets to get close to $150. The move triggered a long-term sell signal, and we advise long-term investors to wait with opening new positions until the next major correction. The steep short-term uptrend is intact with support levels at $100, $80, and $68.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. tieuthanhliem

    August 27, 2017 at 4:11 am

    Instead of just saying bitcoin is overbought, can you forecast when the correction is going to happen. Bitcoin correction is going to affect the whole market. Will the market down anytime soon?

    Your analasys made me sell all of my Bitcoin, not at cheap price. But I sold some of my Lisk because I believe bitcoin correction is going to happen soon but NOT. It is not happen anytime soon. I sold my some of my Lisk at cheap price. Please be careful when you forecast bitcoin correction because you are forecasting the whole market correction.

    I never seen a bitcoin long correction except 2014-2015 duration. For other correction, it only short correction or go down because of bad news. How we can expect a correction soon.
    Bitcoin is diffenrent with other coin.

    Please be careful when you forecast a market correction.

    • badjava

      August 27, 2017 at 5:54 pm

      Nowhere did he say for you to sell your bitcoin or lisk. Take responsibility for your own trades and learn from your mistakes. This site is about educating and guiding you to make sound financial decisions, not handholding your individual decisions. I believe they just launched a new service for more in depth and personal financial advice you might want to look into for that level of service.

  2. tieuthanhliem

    August 27, 2017 at 5:03 am

    And can you provide some news that support the trend for coins that analyzed. That will help reader a lot to make trade decision.

  3. enricogeck

    August 27, 2017 at 4:16 pm

    Yes, doing a technical analysis nowadays isn’t so difficult.. It would be nice to have some fundamental analysis sometimes, like the ones Ph Madore does for icos.

  4. Chris G

    August 27, 2017 at 8:06 pm

    LTC … for … the … win – I started with hacked at a $28k investment. I’m sitting at $62k right now … y’all at havked are gonna have to let me take you to dinner or something. ??????

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets

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Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.

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While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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