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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Market on New Heights Fueled by Rotation

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The first week of the New Year has been another one for the history books in the cryptocurrency segment, as several coins rocketed higher again, with Ethereum and Ripple leading the way higher among the majors. The trio of NEM, Stellar, and Cardano made headlines as they surged higher on the list of the most valuable coins, but volatility was the name of the game in these break-out markets, while the more established names diverged substantially after the hectic holiday season.

Bitcoin was a laggard for most of the week, but it got back to life towards the end of the week, as altcoins turned lower. BTC is in a neutral long-term position after the recent correction, and although the short-term setup is now bullish, odds still favor another leg lower in this cycle, after the historic run-up of the recent months. Primary support is still found at $13,000, with further levels found at $11,300, $10,000, and $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum hit a historic record high after recovering from the mini-crash two weeks ago, topping $1000 during the week, before entering a short-term pull-back. As the recent correction didn’t clear the overbought readings of the coin, we expect another strong move lower soon, although the short-term trend is still intact, and traders could still hold their positions here with tighter stops or trailing stop orders.  Key support levels are now found at $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see the outlook for the other major altcoins after the first week of the year.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been trading similarly to Bitcoin lately, lagging the other majors for most of the week, and moving higher during the weekend, as the rotation in the segment took another turn. As the coin is nearing neutral territory from long-term momentum perspective a more lasting bounce is possible, but as BTC, LTC is also likely to at least re-test the crash lows in the coming weeks. Key support levels are now found between $250 and $260, at $125 and $100, with a weaker zone around $170, and primary resistance ahead at $300.

Ripple

XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

Ripple broke-out yet again earlier on this week and hit yet another new all-time high near the $3.30 level, before spiking lower in an overbought short-term correction. The coin is now testing the dominant rising trendline, and given the extreme momentum readings, we advise long-term investors to remain cautious here, although traders could still open small positions to speculate on another push higher. Primary support is now at $1.50, with short-term levels above that at $2.10 and $1.80, and further levels at $1.25, $0.85, $0.68, and $0.42.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Dash traded in a choppy but relatively narrow range for most of the week, and the coin is among the relatively weaker coins after the initial drop to the $850 area. The currency remains in a broad correction pattern and, we expect the large-scale move to continue, as the MACD indicator still points to bearish pressures. Below the primary support zone at $1000 and the key zone around $850, further important levels are still found just above $600, at $500, $470, and near $410.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic added to its gains earlier on this week, and it spiked almost to the $40 level before turning lower again, as it continues to work its way through the overbought long-term momentum readings. While the currency is already in a much more favorable position than a few weeks ago, we still expect a deeper correction to reset the sentiment in the market, and investors will likely have better opportunities to add to their holdings. Strong support levels are found at $30, $25, and at $18, while primary resistance is ahead at $34.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero moved below the previously dominant rising trendline, continuing the correction, and we expect further downside in the coming weeks after the stellar rally. The $300 support is still likely to fall in the coming period, with further key levels found at $240, $200, $180, and $150, while primary resistance is ahead at $400.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

IOTA remained stuck in a long-term correction, being among the relatively weaker coins during the first trading week. of 2018. As the coin topped out already one month ago, a bottom might be near in time, but a significant dip is still likely after the exponential surge, so investors should remain patient with adding to their holdings. Support levels are still found at $3, $2.35, and $1.50 while primary resistance is ahead near $4.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 393 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. ridge195

    January 6, 2018 at 10:21 pm

    I gave a low rating since there are too many conflicting opinions on the articles. Earlier there is a trade recommendation to buy monero because jt is on the upswing and here it is saying it is going into a deep correction. Its like there is no communication of ideas.

  2. MinerMatt17

    January 6, 2018 at 10:23 pm

    I am glad you added a voting button so I can give these articles a 1 star. No consistency to trade recommendations on Bitcoin, Dash, Monero, Etc.

    There is nothing to back up your repeated claims that bitcoin will correct further. It had its 40% correction, this is normal, not its time for higher lows, and tests of new highs in the coming weeks. Market cap of crypto is surging, not sure why you hate on bitcoin so much.

  3. persiano

    January 7, 2018 at 12:15 am

    È utile avere sottomano i livelli di supporto ma null’altro. Mi sembra la solita panoramica (anche incompleta, manca sempre BCH ETC) generale sulle crypto. Servono analisi anche meno tecniche ma più reali, del tipo: la settimana prossima la Sec si pronuncierà sull’argomento xyz o Ripple ha confermato un Escrow pertanto ci aspettiamo delle oscillazioni che…

  4. dfontes1188

    January 7, 2018 at 3:18 am

    Their disclaimer says it all “Never invest (trade with) money you can’t afford to comfortably lose”

    That’s mostly what you’ll do with these recommendations, lose.

  5. timallen

    January 7, 2018 at 11:16 am

    Isn’t the clue in the title – ‘long term’. I presume the trades are more short term in nature. That said to help readers perhaps there could be more cross referencing of recommendations. Keep up the good work everyone at Hacked

    • MinerMatt17

      January 7, 2018 at 10:34 pm

      Bitcoin, dash, and Monero can’t reach 1.75 – 2 x their current values and then correct that far back down again in the long term without the whole market collapsing. Don’t try to find excuses for them, they just don’t match up their trade recommendations with the analysis. Or really take into account the massive increase of the Market Cap of Crypto frankly for that matter.

  6. dist

    January 7, 2018 at 11:27 pm

    All of this analysis is opposite of how I feel and the charts show for these coins, especially dash and bitcoin. I’m still an alt guy anyway but the only reason all of these coins aren’t 50% up right now is because damn near every exchange is down at the moment.

  7. Chris G

    January 8, 2018 at 4:08 pm

    5-stars because Mate’s advice has made me a pile of $ over the last year …

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Analysis

Black Friday: How to Capitalize on It

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

The most interesting event this month in the US is the famous Black Friday, the day of large discounts, which is on Nov 23. On this day, Americans make 45% of all their annual purchases. The US economy is doing well compared to other countries, with the Fed hiking the rates in order to cool the markets down. The unemployment rate is at its record lows, which means people have money, and there’s going to be much hype about the Black Friday as usual. With this scenario, a few companies may show great potential during Q4. First, there’s e-commerce that is a very strong competition against offline stores. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is the leader here, with the market cap of $1T. In Q3, Amazon made a record high when it comes to quarterly earnings. However, the chart shows it is Q4 that is going to be the most profitable for the company.

Unluckily, after the Q3 report, the price was unable to reach new highs. Investors’ expectations were higher than the data that came out, which led to the share price going down. However, Amazon did make profit, and there’s a good trend in it. Furthermore, Amazon management expects to book the record profit in Q4 2018. In October, we analyzed Amazon and said the company stock is going to trade at around $1,400. It is now trading at its low at $1,476, however, and is above the 200-day SMA. When the price goes below $1,700, the volumes get much higher, according to the chart. Thus, this may be the support the price may start recovering from.

If the earnings expectations are met, Amazon may well rise above the round number of $2,000. Another large company that may get nice profits is eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), which is mostly centered around e-commerce, too. The profits are good here, while the stock price leaves much to be desired.

Still, eBay incomes are rising quarter to quarter. According to the expectations, Q4 is going to be the most profitable in the recent few years.

Over 2018, eBay stock went down by nearly 30%. Perhaps, the reason for that is the increasing debt, with the debt to equity ratio now being 1.11, while, for Amazon, it is just 0.63. Technically, the stock went down till November last year, too, while after the Q4 report it traded at its highs. This time, the stock looks somewhat weaker than before, and may only reach $36 or so.

Walmart, an offline store chain, may also be included into this list, as this company is sure to get good profits thanks to Black Friday sales. Nevertheless, while eBay and Amazon shares corrected before Q4, Walmart is rising and is trying to break out its record highs made a year ago. Walmart earnings, like internet giants’ ones, are sure to be sensitive to the sales before Xmas.

The company reports its earnings on Thursday, and they are expected higher than the same quarter last year. The income is visibly growing up, and the record highs for Q4 earnings expectations are quite logical. Walmart has been recently going up thanks to large hedge funds positions, with around 52 funds now including this stock into their portfolios.

Technically, as said before, the stock is quite strong. The price is currently above the 200-day SMA, showing good growth and ready to hit new record highs. As for the entry, it’s hard to determine the risk. The nearest support levels are $100 and $90, and once the price reaches either, it could be a good entry point for the next few months.

 

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 17 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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Altcoins

Zcash Price Analysis: ZEC/USD Penetrating Vital Resistance, Which is Key for Greater Upside

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  • Zcash has remained elevated over the past few days, as a result of potential speculation across the social media space regarding a Coinbase listing.
  • ZEC/USD bulls must break down supply area heading into $140, to unlock chunky buying pressure.

ZEC/USD bulls have been pressing hard to break above the very stubborn resistance, which is seen just above the $140 price territory. For going on six sessions now, the price has failed to clear the above supply area. It is seen tracking from $138 up to $140. ZEC/USD has not been above this territory since 28th September. There has been much penetration of this, which very well could suggest a strong breakout to come.

Zcash Speculation

Efforts by Coinbase to expand its offering has raised speculation that ZEC may be due for consideration. As recently reported, the largest U.S exchange, announced the listing of Basic Attention Token (BAT) on its trading platform and apps. Elsewhere, they opened the doors for trading 0x (ZRX), which was the first ERC-20 token to have been listed on the platform. Given these moves, there has been continued speculation across the social media space regarding possible listing of Zcash along with the likes of Cardano (ADA), and Stellar (XLM).

Technical Review – ZEC/USD

ZEC/USD daily chart

The ZEC/USD bulls are having a hard time, as their rallies continue to be short-lived due to repetitive failure to breach key resistance. On each occasion the price has entered the detailed supply area, heading into $140, it has been sent back south by some force. It could very well be that ZEC/USD is moving within consolidation mode, after the chunky recent surge. The bulls had seen a decent run from October 31st. Gains seen within this period were a chunky 20%.

Support Levels

Looking to the downside, a decent level of daily support can be eyed just sub-$128. During the current form of consolidation eyed, this area has proven to be of use. Further south, eyes would be back on the breached pennant pattern. This is where ZEC/USD began its most recent forceful upside trend. The price had managed to catch some bidding at the lower part of the pattern to then see a breakout to the upside. A potential pullback to the pennant could see the price around $118.

Upside Targets

Should the market bulls manage to gather enough upside momentum, eyes will be on another retest of the supply heading into $140. A breach above will likely see the price heading for another supply zone, observed at $145. ZEC/USD last traded here on 28th September, before resuming its downward trend. Further north, the highs seen early September within the $160 territory. Lastly, any move above here, could likely see some strong buying pressure, with a fast move back into $200.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 49 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Pre-Market Analysis And Chartbook: Trade Deal Hope Boost Risk Assets as Pound Surges

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Tuesday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,737 0.27%
DAX 30 11,381 0.49%
WTI Crude Oil 59.10 0.41%
GOLD 1,203 0.20%
Bitcoin 6,291 -0.42%
EUR/USD 1.1265 0.42%

After yesterday’s equity selloff and Dollar rally today we are seeing a counter-trend move in most asset classes thanks to the reports regarding some progress in the US-China trade talks. The optimism has been sparked by the planned US visit by the main Chinese negotiator which points to a renewed interest on the Chinese side that withdrew from the talks.

Stocks are slightly higher before the US open, but the short-term uptrend that carried the major indices significantly above the October lows seems to be broken, with especially the Nasdaq being set for a re-test as soon as this week. Currencies and commodities are also very active today, and as volatility is increasing across asset classes, a busy US session is likely.

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Pound continues to be the most volatile major currency, even as the Dollar has been in the center of attention since the Fed meeting, with the looming Brexit deadlines increasing the tension in the market of the GBP. Interestingly, the Euro has been underperforming the Pound lately, due to the Italy related worries, and today the Pound is significantly higher against all of its major peers.

The Pound was also boosted by the British Employment Report, as the healthy wage growth figure outweighed the weaker than expected Unemployment Rate, at least as far as the forex markets are concerned. The GBP/USD pair jumped higher off the key 1.2850 support/resistance level that has been “in play” several times in the last few months, but the broader downtrend remains unharmed by today’s move.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The technical troubles are mounting on Wall Street, with the key benchmarks all turning sharply lower off last week’s highs. The Dow, which has been the strongest index this month also broke its rising trendline and dipped below several short-term support levels, similarly to the slightly weaker S&P 500 and the lagging Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 is now testing the key support zone near 2750, and given the broader bearish setup, we expect the large-cap index to revisit the October low in the coming weeks, with even an accelerating selloff being in the cards. The weak market internals are also pointing to further troubles for stock bulls, and we still wouldn’t buy the dip here.

Emerging Market Weakness Casts a Shadow on Risk Assets

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the main risk on currencies is higher today, looking at the weakest links of the October risk-rout, emerging market and European stocks, the picture is not pretty. We looked at the DAX’s wounded chart yesterday, and the most important emerging market ETF also shows signs of distress, with a test of the bear market low being seemingly inevitable in the near future, especially given the broad weakness across the developed markets as well.

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are mixed today amid the Chinese optimism, with the increasing volatility in oil still being the most interesting trend in the segment. The WTI contract fell back below the $60 level after yesterday’s initial bounce, and although it only hit a marginal new low today, and we still expect a larger bounce in the coming days in oil, sellers are still in control of the market.

Gold dipped below $1200 for the first time in a month, as the precious metal failed to reverse last week’s breakdown, threatening with a test of the $1180 support level. Copper avoided a new swing low below the $2.65 level, for now, and the metal is still within its broad consolidation pattern, thanks to the renewed trade-deal optimism, with the broader downtrend clearly being intact.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 393 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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