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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Market on New Heights Fueled by Rotation

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The first week of the New Year has been another one for the history books in the cryptocurrency segment, as several coins rocketed higher again, with Ethereum and Ripple leading the way higher among the majors. The trio of NEM, Stellar, and Cardano made headlines as they surged higher on the list of the most valuable coins, but volatility was the name of the game in these break-out markets, while the more established names diverged substantially after the hectic holiday season.

Bitcoin was a laggard for most of the week, but it got back to life towards the end of the week, as altcoins turned lower. BTC is in a neutral long-term position after the recent correction, and although the short-term setup is now bullish, odds still favor another leg lower in this cycle, after the historic run-up of the recent months. Primary support is still found at $13,000, with further levels found at $11,300, $10,000, and $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum hit a historic record high after recovering from the mini-crash two weeks ago, topping $1000 during the week, before entering a short-term pull-back. As the recent correction didn’t clear the overbought readings of the coin, we expect another strong move lower soon, although the short-term trend is still intact, and traders could still hold their positions here with tighter stops or trailing stop orders.  Key support levels are now found at $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see the outlook for the other major altcoins after the first week of the year.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been trading similarly to Bitcoin lately, lagging the other majors for most of the week, and moving higher during the weekend, as the rotation in the segment took another turn. As the coin is nearing neutral territory from long-term momentum perspective a more lasting bounce is possible, but as BTC, LTC is also likely to at least re-test the crash lows in the coming weeks. Key support levels are now found between $250 and $260, at $125 and $100, with a weaker zone around $170, and primary resistance ahead at $300.

Ripple

XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

Ripple broke-out yet again earlier on this week and hit yet another new all-time high near the $3.30 level, before spiking lower in an overbought short-term correction. The coin is now testing the dominant rising trendline, and given the extreme momentum readings, we advise long-term investors to remain cautious here, although traders could still open small positions to speculate on another push higher. Primary support is now at $1.50, with short-term levels above that at $2.10 and $1.80, and further levels at $1.25, $0.85, $0.68, and $0.42.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Dash traded in a choppy but relatively narrow range for most of the week, and the coin is among the relatively weaker coins after the initial drop to the $850 area. The currency remains in a broad correction pattern and, we expect the large-scale move to continue, as the MACD indicator still points to bearish pressures. Below the primary support zone at $1000 and the key zone around $850, further important levels are still found just above $600, at $500, $470, and near $410.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic added to its gains earlier on this week, and it spiked almost to the $40 level before turning lower again, as it continues to work its way through the overbought long-term momentum readings. While the currency is already in a much more favorable position than a few weeks ago, we still expect a deeper correction to reset the sentiment in the market, and investors will likely have better opportunities to add to their holdings. Strong support levels are found at $30, $25, and at $18, while primary resistance is ahead at $34.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Monero moved below the previously dominant rising trendline, continuing the correction, and we expect further downside in the coming weeks after the stellar rally. The $300 support is still likely to fall in the coming period, with further key levels found at $240, $200, $180, and $150, while primary resistance is ahead at $400.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

IOTA remained stuck in a long-term correction, being among the relatively weaker coins during the first trading week. of 2018. As the coin topped out already one month ago, a bottom might be near in time, but a significant dip is still likely after the exponential surge, so investors should remain patient with adding to their holdings. Support levels are still found at $3, $2.35, and $1.50 while primary resistance is ahead near $4.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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23 votes, average: 3.22 out of 523 votes, average: 3.22 out of 523 votes, average: 3.22 out of 523 votes, average: 3.22 out of 523 votes, average: 3.22 out of 5 (23 votes, average: 3.22 out of 5)
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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. ridge195

    January 6, 2018 at 10:21 pm

    I gave a low rating since there are too many conflicting opinions on the articles. Earlier there is a trade recommendation to buy monero because jt is on the upswing and here it is saying it is going into a deep correction. Its like there is no communication of ideas.

  2. MinerMatt17

    January 6, 2018 at 10:23 pm

    I am glad you added a voting button so I can give these articles a 1 star. No consistency to trade recommendations on Bitcoin, Dash, Monero, Etc.

    There is nothing to back up your repeated claims that bitcoin will correct further. It had its 40% correction, this is normal, not its time for higher lows, and tests of new highs in the coming weeks. Market cap of crypto is surging, not sure why you hate on bitcoin so much.

  3. persiano

    January 7, 2018 at 12:15 am

    È utile avere sottomano i livelli di supporto ma null’altro. Mi sembra la solita panoramica (anche incompleta, manca sempre BCH ETC) generale sulle crypto. Servono analisi anche meno tecniche ma più reali, del tipo: la settimana prossima la Sec si pronuncierà sull’argomento xyz o Ripple ha confermato un Escrow pertanto ci aspettiamo delle oscillazioni che…

  4. dfontes1188

    January 7, 2018 at 3:18 am

    Their disclaimer says it all “Never invest (trade with) money you can’t afford to comfortably lose”

    That’s mostly what you’ll do with these recommendations, lose.

  5. timallen

    January 7, 2018 at 11:16 am

    Isn’t the clue in the title – ‘long term’. I presume the trades are more short term in nature. That said to help readers perhaps there could be more cross referencing of recommendations. Keep up the good work everyone at Hacked

    • MinerMatt17

      January 7, 2018 at 10:34 pm

      Bitcoin, dash, and Monero can’t reach 1.75 – 2 x their current values and then correct that far back down again in the long term without the whole market collapsing. Don’t try to find excuses for them, they just don’t match up their trade recommendations with the analysis. Or really take into account the massive increase of the Market Cap of Crypto frankly for that matter.

  6. dist

    January 7, 2018 at 11:27 pm

    All of this analysis is opposite of how I feel and the charts show for these coins, especially dash and bitcoin. I’m still an alt guy anyway but the only reason all of these coins aren’t 50% up right now is because damn near every exchange is down at the moment.

  7. Chris G

    January 8, 2018 at 4:08 pm

    5-stars because Mate’s advice has made me a pile of $ over the last year …

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Trade War Optimism Sparks Another Bounce in Stocks

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Global stocks are markedly higher today before the US open, Donald Trump’s quite aggressive negotiating seem to be paying off, at least with regards to China, as in the wake of the pronounced weakness in Chinese assets, and the notable slowdown in the economy, the country wants to reopen the talks with the US.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Shanghai Composite hit a new bear market low overnight before recovering above support into the close, and the Dollar’s rally also ran into resistance, thanks to the Yuan’s bounce of its fresh 13-month low. Emerging market assets are also somewhat higher today, with the help of the Turkish Lira’s continued bounce, but the segment is still deeply wounded technically, and more pain is almost inevitably ahead, as the negative trends still stand.

 

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Walmart’s great earnings report also fueled the pre-market rally in US futures, as the retail segment in the largest economy still seems to be doing just fine, despite the global woes. The major US indices are after an orderly looking correction, in stark contrast with their European and Asian peers, which are stuck in broader downtrends or even full-blown bear markets.

Nasdaq, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Yesterday’s tech selloff, which was triggered by the weak report of Chinese giant Tencent has almost been erased after the better than expected numbers of Cisco restored confidence in the market-leading segment. Nvidia (NVDA) will also report after the market close, and as the earnings season is drawing to a close, we can conclude that corporate profits had a blowout quarter in the US, even as cracks in the global economy appeared.

Momentum is still clearly on the side of the FAANGS and the whole US tech sector even after discounting Facebook’s recent plunge, but should the tightening cycle of the Fed continue to drain liquidity from financial markets and should the rising trend in rates persist, we expect valuations to suddenly matter soon.

Dollar Pulls Back

Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The possible resumption of the US-Chinese trade talks sparked a, so far, weak correction, which also due from a technical standpoint, with the EUR/USD pair finding support near $1.13, and with the broader Dollar Index running into resistance near the 97 level. The rally in the reserve currency is no danger by any means, as the break-out is clearly intact, but a deeper pullback would help risk-assets in the coming days.

WTI Crude oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are slightly higher thanks to the relief rally in emerging markets and the dip in the Dollar, but the previously stronger crude oil is just holding up above the $65 support, while gold is clearly below $1200, and copper couldn’t get back anywhere near yesterday’s break-down level close to $2.70.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Stabilizes but Bulls Not Out of the Woods

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The cryptocurrency segment looks much better than any time in the last 10 days, as the major coins managed to hold up above the liquidation lows hit on Tuesday. While the bounce stabilized the market, there is still substantial fragility following the steep selloff, and until further bullish moves, traders shouldn’t enter full positions.

That said, finally, there are signs of relative strength among the top coins as correlations are slightly lower, and some of the bearish leaders managed to recapture key resistance levels. Litecoin is trading right at the crucial $56 level, while Monero is above the $90 level, and as we noted before the exhaustion of their downtrend is a positive sign or the whole segment.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The bounce and the following stability triggered a few upgrades in our trend model after spending almost 1 month in the sell zone, but there are still no majors on a buy signal as the segment-wide downtrend remains intact. Bitcoin remains the strongest coin from a technical perspective, while Ethereum and Ripple, which showed weakness for weeks, are also in better shape, even as they face very strong resistance levels.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum managed to hold up above the $275-$280 level during the overnight pullback, and now it faces the $300 resistance level again, trying to build on the recent rally. While the short-term downtrend is intact, and the oversold longer-term momentum readings could fuel a rally in the coming weeks, but now the coin is in a structural bear market after the break below $400.

The coin is now neutral from a short-term standpoint, but a move below $275 would point to another test of the lows. Further resistance is ahead at $3335 and $360, while strong long-term support is at $260.

Bitcoin Still Below $6500 as XRP Nears $0.30

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Not much has changed for Bitcoin in recent days, but relatively speaking the largest coin showed significant strength. That said, until BTC doesn’t show bullish momentum, traders still shouldn’t enter positions, as the structurally important $5850 level is still not far below the current price level. A move above $6500 would trigger a short-term buy signal, but further strong resistance levels are ahead at $6750 and $7000, while support is still found at $6275 and $6000.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple and Ethereum are in very similar technical setups, and XRP is also facing strong resistance at $0.30 after finding support overnight near $0.275. After the panicky spike below $0.26, the odds of a durable increased, and should the coin stay above the overnight lows, the coin could avoid another short-term sell signal. While traders should still stay away from entering full positions here, a bottoming process might already be underway.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 320 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Ethereum Takes Baby Steps to Recovery as Global Markets Surge 10%

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Following the first serious rebound from the last week’s carnage the global market gained 10% overnight, pushing back through the $200 billion barrier after a brief dip to $190 billion yesterday.

Ethereum Price Recovery

The rebound was not distributed equally, with many of the altcoins which had previously lost the most now benefiting in turn. Ethereum made a strong push in the last twenty-fours as it climbed from a near year-long low of $254.56 up to the current range in the $280’s, where it sits at the time of writing.

The 11% gains for the day sound good, but amount to relatively little in dollar value considering how much the coin lost in recent weeks. At one point during the night ETH climbed to a unit price of $290 – but that’s as far as it could go during this particular twenty-four stretch.

The sudden surge over the last twenty-four hours wasn’t enough to take Ethereum to the £300 mark, although that could be achieved following another 5% growth. The current $284 price per ETH is still one of the lowest witnessed in the last 11 months, so there’s still plenty of scope for investors to jump on board.

Predictably, USDT trades are the most popular today, making up close to 20% of the daily total as a significant portion of ETH becomes un-tethered. Wash-trades, or transaction mining on multiple exchanges once again comes close to equalling the actual recorded daily volume of $1.8 billion.

Global Surge Re-Rearranges Altcoins

While nothing could be termed normal in the crypto world, several coins have returned to their former market cap positions from before the dip. EOS is back in 5th place after temporarily being ousted by Stellar, and Cardano has returned to 8th spot after briefly giving up its place to Tether.

TRON and IOTA are still lingering outside the top ten, with Monero holding strong in the 10th spot previously occupied by TRON, and then IOTA in recent times.

Correlation and Causation

You’ve probably seen the Google Trend charts which show an alignment between ‘cryptocurrency’ Google searches, and the total cryptocurrency market cap. Right now the search volume is as low as it has been since before the surge of 2017 – but that isn’t necessarily an indicator of a lack of interest. It just means that people aren’t typing the word ‘cryptocurrency’ (or Bitcoin, which has an immensely larger search volume) into Google any more.

It says nothing about the number of people checking CoinMarketCap every day, and it doesn’t let you know how many people have suddenly become interested again after seeing prices drop to such long-time lows.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 38 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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