Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: February Lows Challenged but Bitcoin Holds Strong

Following more than two weeks of heavy selling, which was mostly fueled by regulatory issues and the failure of the largest coins, Bitcoin and Ethereum, to break out from the broad declining trend channels, the segment could have reached a major turning point.

The reversal on Sunday which was accompanied by relative strength in several crucial coins fits most of the criteria for a key reversal, but the coming days will be crucial to evaluate the buying power behind the bounce.

For now, some short-term buy signals already popped-up, and with the bearish momentum fading in most cases, the downswing could already be over. From a long-term perspective, the lengthy decline that started in December still qualifies as a correction, as we explained in our piece on Bitcoin, but as there are substantial divergences even among the largest coins, we will take a look at the setup and the outlook for the most established coins.

BTC/USD, Daily Hour Chart Analysis

As for BTC, the setup only slightly changed since last week, as although no official long-term buy signal occurred, with the MACD likely headed for a bullish cross, more aggressive investors could add to their holdings. Key resistance zones are ahead between $9000-$9200, and near $10,000, $11,300, and $11,750, while the dominant trendline is currently found at $10,000.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, Daily Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum, which had a much later top during the run-up, has been very weak during the current downswing, being one of the only coins to dip below the February lows, with the other late-cycle coin NEO joining it too. The weekend low had a more pronounced spike lower than in the case of BTC and the heavy volume also points to a key reversal.

The currency has already been in the long-term buy zone regarding momentum and investors could still add to their holdings here, although a short-term buy signal is still missing. Primary support is now at $500 while key resistance is ahead at $625, between $740 and $780, and near $845 and $900.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, Daily Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been relatively strong throughout the selloff, similarly to Bitcoin, and the coin only briefly spiked below the key $150 level during the weekend. The currency is still in a corrective downtrend but remains above the broader trendline. Investors could add to their positions here as we expect the recovery to resume. The key $170-$180 zone is just ahead as primary resistance, while the $15 and $140 levels provide strong support.

Dash

DASH/USD, Daily Hour Chart Analysis

Dash spiked briefly below February low in the illiquid weekend market, and the coin is still under short-term selling pressure, but the long-term momentum is already oversold, and investors could add to their holdings here despite the lack of a short-term buy signal. The currency is trading right at the key $400 level with strong resistance ahead at $435, $500, and between $575 and $600, and further support near $360.

Ripple

XRP/USD, Daily Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple tested the February low over the weekend, and it is still hovering around the key $0.68 level, without a clear short-term buy signal, but the long-term setup is favorable. The currency is likely building a new base, and although further consolidation is likely, investors could add to their holdings here. The February low is found at $0.58, with key resistance ahead at $0.85 and $1.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, Daily Hour Chart Analysis

ETC is both on short- and long-term buy signals after the steep decline and the subsequent rebound, and a test of the key $23 level is likely ahead. The coin was the leader of the rally off the February lows and the current strength is a bullish sign for the whole segment. Support is found near $18, $16 and $14.50, while above $23 key resistance is at $25 and $30.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is also on short- and long-term buy signals after the weekend reversal, and the coin has stayed well above the February low so far after leading the off the February lows. A recovery above $240 would be a very bullish sign for the coin and the segment, but for now, the short-term setup is still shaky despite the oversold momentum readings. Further resistance is ahead at $280 and $300, while support is at $200 and $175.

NEO

NEO/USDT, Daily Hour Chart Analysis

NEO spiked below the February low together with Ethereum that is has been tracking closely for the past months. The coin is still only neutral form a short-term perspective, but the long-term picture is oversold, and the coin remains on a buy signal. Key resistance is ahead at $80, $100, and between $120 and $130, while strong support is at $64 and $50.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, Daily Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA has been showing strength since violating the February low as the first major, and the coin remained on a long-term buy signal thanks to the quick recovery. The coin is now likely headed for another test of the broad declining trendline currently at $1.5 and a break-out is very likely in the coming weeks. Further strong resistance is ahead at $1.9 and between $2.2 and $2.35, while support is found near $1.25 and $1.1.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Author:
Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.
Comments
  • Appreciate this article! Great analysis. Hate to be “that guy” but omitting Bitcoin Cash from this is shortsighted. Massive quantities of notable Bitcoin industry players are adding it as a payment option on a weekly basis, and developing support for it across their platforms. There are no fewer than five development teams contributing to it now, which continues the ethos of decentralized development that was lost in Bitcoin years back, thanks to Core.

    BCH’s forward momentum is in stark comparison to Litecoin which, as for the last 8 years, continues to see absolutely no real-world adoption, and the recent Litepay AMA on Reddit proved the team to be inept, disorganized operation void of any solid plans. Gemini will be adding Bitcoin Cash in 2018, which is a massive move, and nearly every Bitcoin ATM machine has added BCH support due to its lower fees.

    Outside of ICX it has to be the most overlooked currency right now, likely due to the FUD machine of those who stand to profit financially from its failure (those who charge to process bitcoin transactions off-chain while suppressing on-chain block size). Have been in the space since 2012 and spent 4+ hours a day trading and monitoring the ecosystem for six years. Confident in my assessment of this sleeping giant.

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