Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ethereum at Make-or-Break Levels after Selloff
Although all rally attempts have failed so far in the crypto-segment, and the weakness in altcoins, especially Ethereum and Ripple has been the dominant force, the secular trend remained intact. Most of the majors are still sitting on lofty gains not counting the last two months of 2017 and the following pullback.
That said, investor sentiment is dismal, and the steep decline of the last three months took the largest coins back to the last major break-out levels of the bull market. On previous occasions, these levels proved crucial in reversing the trend, and with the current oversold momentum reading, coupled with the sentiment extreme, a major bottom is likely ahead.
As we discussed in our recent article on Bitcoin, a clear break blow these secular support levels would signal a prolonged bear market, changing the long-term view of the segment.
BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
While a healthy leadership is missing from the segment, Bitcoin and the strongest altcoins remained above the February lows, and those coins will likely provide the momentum for the next upswing. A test of the lows is still in the cards given the bearish short-term setup, but the bearish momentum is not strong from a long-term perspective, and the long-term buy signal is still justified. Crucial resistance is ahead near $7640, between $9000-$9200, and near $10,000, $11,300, with support found in the $6150-$6250 zone and at $5500 and $5000.
ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum is in the most important position form a technical standpoint as it is trading right in the “take-off” zone of the recent leg higher in the secular bull, and the coin should hold these levels to avoid a secular bear signal. Momentum is severely oversold, and we still expect the bull market to resume, so long-term investors could still add to their positions, with support found near the current price level and at $325, while resistance is ahead near $450, $500, and $625.
ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Litecoin followed the broader market lower, losing its relative strength after the LitePay scandal, but the coin held up above the February low, and it was leading the way higher again during the latest bounce. While the move failed, we still expect the coin to lead the market in the next upswing, and the long-term bullish signal remains intact. Resistance is ahead at $125, $140, $150 and in the key $170-$180 zone while crucial support is at $125.
DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Dash remained relatively weak during the latest selloff, and it is now trading at the key $300 level, that marked the latest key break-out. The coin faces strong resistance at $360, $400, $435, and $500 with support near $265, and Dash should hold up near the current levels to keep the long-term buy signal intact.
XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
XRP was among the leaders of this week’s rally attempt after the coin fell below the $50 level during the recent leg lower. The coin failed to hold its short-term gains remaining under strong selling pressure and within the declining trend. The coin is in an oversold position regarding long-term momentum and it should quickly recover above the key support/resistance zone between $0.54 and $0.57, to keep the long-term buy signal intact. Primary support is found nearat $0.42, the prior all-time high, while further resistance is ahead at $0.68, $0.85, and $1.
ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Ethereum Classic is holding above the February lows, for now, but the short-term picture is still bleak, as ETC is relatively weak and the declining trend is far from being broken. The currency remains clearly oversold from a long-term perspective, and we still expect a major bottom to form, but a durable move below the February low would point to another short-term leg lower. Resistance is ahead near $14.50, $16, $18, and $20 while primary support is now at $11.
XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Monero continues to be the brightest spot in the segment, with clear signs of relative strength amid the relentless selling. Despite the strength, short-term traders are still facing an uphill battle, given the failed bounces and the lack of bullish momentum. The long-term picture is oversold, and investors could still add to the positions, with a likely new base between $150 and $175 providing support. Strong resistance levels are ahead at $200, $240 and $280,
NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
NEO found support just below the key long-term level near $50, slightly decoupling from Ethereum, which the coin has been tracking closely throughout the whole correction. The currency is clearly oversold from a long-term perspective, and investors could accumulate the coin, but trades are still facing a steep declining trend. Key resistance is found at $64, $80, and $100, while further support is near the $40 price level.
IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The bearish momentum in IOTA continues to be relatively weak, as IOTA found support near the $1 level again, as the coin only hit a marginal new low amid the segment-wide decline. While a trend break seems to be close, only long-term investors should look for entry points, as we can’t conclude the end of the downswing. Strong resistance is ahead at $1.2, $1.5, and $1.9, while support is found near $0.75 and $0.64.
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Disclaimer: The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.