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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Crucial Rally Attempt

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The crypto segment is at a very important point from a technical perspective following the strong late-April rally and the subsequent correction. The major coins formed a bottom last week after triggering long-term buy signals and now a very important rally attempt is underway.

Several weaker coins drifted back to their April lows, with Bitcoin also getting relatively close to the base that developed this year. The leaders of the April rally shined once again, with IOTA, EOS, and to a lesser extent Ethereum showing relative strength during the rally.

Despite the positive signs, and the short-term buy signals that popped up during the weekend, the momentum of the move stalled today, and the advance is already facing a key test. For now, the rally is intact, and the coins remain dominantly on buy signals in our trend model, but especially the leaders should be monitored closely in the coming days.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

We expect the recovery to continue, even as Bitcoin is once again lagging the leading altcoins, as it was the case during the April rally. BTC is stuck below the $7650-$7800 level, and although the long-term setup is bullish, the coin failed to trigger a short-term buy signal, while the daily MACD indicator is also pointing to weak bullish momentum.

That said, long-term investors could add to their holdings here, as the secular bullish trend is still clearly intact. Further resistance is ahead at $8400, $8700, and between $9000 and $9200, while support is found at $7350, $7000, $6500, and $6150.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum recovered well after a period of relative weakness, and the coin formed a bottom near $500, keeping the recovery intact, and staying well above the April low. The currency ran into resistance in the $625-$645 range, but we expect the rally to continue, and ETH is on a buy signal on all time-frames. Primary support is found between $555 and $575, while further resistance zones are ahead between $735 and $780 and near $845.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin failed to move above the $125 level so far, and the coin remains among the weaker majors even after drifting out of the declining short-term pattern. Investors could add to their holdings on the short-term pullbacks, and we still expect the coin to hold the strong base pattern near $100, while further resistance zones are ahead near $140, $150, and between $170 and $180.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash has also been among the weakest majors in recent weeks, and the rally attempt is also not convincing so far. The coin failed to trigger a short-term signal, and traders should remain cautious with new positions until Dash shows signs of strength. The secular uptrend remains intact despite the weakness, and long-term investors could still add to their holdings here. Support is found at $300 and near $260, while resistance is ahead at $360, $400, and $435.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has been showing relative strength recently and the coin is now on a short-term buy signal after while being bullish from a long-term perspective as well. XRP is now above the $0.64 support/resistance level, although it faces further strong resistance near $0.73 and $0.84. We expect the recovery to continue with a strong base pattern found between $0.45 and $0.54.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Ethereum Classic is now on a buy signal both short- and long-term, it failed to gather strong momentum and the $16 resistance level stopped the advance for now. While the long-term indicators signal a durable bottom, the short-term weakness could point to another test of the lows, and traders should focus on the relatively stronger coins. Support zones are still found near $14.50 and $13.50, while further resistance is ahead at $18.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is also among the weaker coins and it failed to trigger a short-term buy signal, even as the long-term picture turned positive. We still expect the coin to hold the long-term base pattern between $150 and $175, but traders should still stay away from new positions here. Long-term investors still accumulate the coin with further resistance ahead at $200, and strong support below $150 found at $125.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO built up some short-term relative strength last week, but the momentum of the rally is still weak, and the coin is facing strong trendline resistance near the current price level. NEO is on both short- and long-term buy signals, but the coming days will be crucial for the coin. Further resistance zones are ahead near $64, $70, and $80, with support found near the $50 level.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA rallied strongly off the correction lows as we expected, and it hit the $1.9 level before entering a short-term pullback. The coin is now back near the $1.7 level, and we expect the rally to continue while the long-term picture is also bullish. Further resistance levels are ahead near $2.2, $2.35, and $2.6, while key support is found at $1.5.

EOS

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS ran into resistance near the key $15.50 level after breaking out of a short-term correction pattern, and the coin remains one of the clear leaders of the market despite the current pullback. The short- and long-term buy signals remain intact, with support found at $12, $10, and $9, while targets above 415.50 are ahead at $19 and $23.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-to-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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  1. Pgaucher

    June 5, 2018 at 1:08 am

    Could we add Bitcoin Cash to the list of long term trend analysis. Huge development efforts are being made and clear use cases pop up every day making it a potential contender to the top spot. Would be great to get technical views on BCH as well as BTC. Thanks.

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Altcoins

Cardano Price Analysis: ADA/USDT is Eyeing a Big Move Out of Current Technical Setup

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  • Positive update from IOHK audit of Icarus by Kudelski Security.
  • ADA/USDT is moving within a pennant pattern formation, subject to breakout.

Solid Icarus Audit reported by IOHK

IOHK recently announced in their forum that an audit was conducted by Kudelski Security, which is an independent and third-party security audit firm. The audit conducted demonstrated that the Icarus project implementation for Cardano looks all good and set to go, without any major problems. However, a few changes may need to be executed. IOHK developed the Icarus code as a reference implementation, for Cardano light portfolio.

The important of “independent audits, like this one was stressed by IOHK. Stating “they are critical for identifying security issues in the Icarus wallet, that may not have been identified by internal audits”.

Furthermore, IOHK has elucidated Icarus as an open source code base serving as a reference for the creation of safer and easier mobile wallets for Cardano. They said, “this guarantees our customers and clients the safest portfolio we can offer.”  Given the benefit of an external audit, the developers can resolve any problems identified during its product launch audit.

Positive Updates from Cardano Founder

Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, was recently commenting on Cardano’s future. He said “We have so many amazing things coming out.”

Mr Hoskinson further added that one of their scientists has flown in from Switzerland. They will be doing a video, which will be the first time they have ever talked about their sharding design that we have for Cardano. Further commenting on other updates, including videos about Shelley and the Rust project.

Technical Review – Daily Chart

ADA/USDT daily chart

ADA/USDT is moving within a triangular pattern or a pennant formation, as seen via the daily time frame. It is narrowing, moving closer to a breakout. Ranging ahead of another drop to the deep south. Although, fundamental developments coming out from the Cardano foundation, remain very much upbeat currently.

Over the past 8 days, the price has been grinding higher, after receiving support at the lower trend line of the above-mentioned pattern. In terms of resistance to the upside, this can be seen at 0.08310000. The upper tracking trend line. Further north, a supply zone is running from 0.09000000-0.09500000. ADA/USDT  last traded here on 23rd September. Finally, support is tracking at 0.071800000, lower part of the pennant, also within a demand area. Another strong buying territory is observed from 0.06500000-0.06000000.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Top 10 Worst Performers Make Bottom Picking List

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Yesterday, October 18, 2018, Cryptoglobe published, a list of the 10 worst performing cryptocurrency investments of 2018. These altcoins suffered heavy losses of between 97% – 99%. With tremendous devaluation, it may lead you to think that altcoins or cryptos are dead. After all, other assets such as stocks or commodities may likely never come back to life after losing all but one percent of their value.

But this is crypto where coins nosedive one day and skyrocket the next. Cryptoglobe can show you a picture of tragedy, but us; we see opportunity. In this two-part article, we reveal how the top 10 worst performing cryptocurrency investments can make a good bottom picking list.

Zclassic (ZCL/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

99%

Current Status:

Zclassic/Bitcoin (ZCL/BTC) is currently finding footing at its historic support level of 0.0005. In the last four weeks, the pair has been range trading between 0.0005 and 0.000074.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

An altcoin that’s down 99% is a great bottom picking candidate. Aside from the possibility of a technical bounce, you can expect whales and expert bottom fishers to accumulate positions at this level. So, you can either trade the range or accumulate with the best of them.

Weekly chart of ZCL/BTC

Game Credits (GAME/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

98%

Current Status:

GAME/BTC is attempting to carve a bottom at the parabolic support of 0.000025. Over the last four weeks, the pair has been trading between 0.000025 and 0.0000346.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

Yes, GAME/BTC has the potential to generate a strong rally in the coming weeks. Volume spikes on September 23 and October 4 hint that someone is accumulating at these levels. More importantly, the market is flashing oversold readings on the weekly RSI. GAME/BTC has the essential ingredients of a powerful bounce.

Weekly chart of GAME/BTC

Bitcoin Diamond (BCD/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

97%

Current Status:

BCD/BTC is currently trading inside a huge falling wedge on the daily chart. It is still bearish as it continues to generate lower highs and lower lows.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

No, BCD/BTC is not a great bottom picking candidate. However, the pair looks ripe for a breakout. The usual catalysts are present: flashing extreme oversold readings, nearing the apex of the wedge, and trading at all-time lows. Look for volume spikes as a sign of a breakout.

Daily chart of BCD/BTC

Ethos (BQX/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

97%

Current Status:

BQX/BTC has been carving a bottom at 0.000045 for over a month now. Those who were able to buy at this level are lucky because BQX/BTC is looking ripe for a rally.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

Yes, if you can still manage to get as close to 0.000045 as possible. The volume surges in the last few days suggest that the pair is in the final stages of base building. On October 14, BQX/BTC printed volume that’s over 250% of its daily average.

Daily chart of BQX/BTC

SALT (SALT/BTC)

% Down from All-time High:

97%

Current Status:

SALT/BTC may already be in an uptrend but it seems that only a few people are looking. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is currently generating a bullish higher low after pulling back from its first higher high in months. SALT/BTC looks bullish in our book.

Bottom Picking Candidate?

Yes, this pullback gives you an opportunity to buy the higher low. We expect SALT/BTC to trade near the support of the ascending channel as it consolidates.

4H chart of SALT/BTC

Bottom Line

In trading and investing, the worst performing cryptocurrency investments and other assets often provide the maximum financial opportunity. We’re seeing that in the first half of the list. We have a feeling that we’ll see more or less the same in the second half of the list. Stay tuned.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 251 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Volatile and Flat US Session Ends a Hectic Week for Stocks

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The major US indices finished virtually unchanged today, despite the positive open, while short-dated Treasuries closed the week near their multi-year lows. The session had several ups and downs, but the uptick in yields and the weakness in Europe proved too much for a sustained move higher to develop, despite the string of better-than-expected quarterly earnings reports.

S&P 500 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

From a broader perspective we can say that another bounce faded in stocks, with small-caps underperforming yet again, so the risk-off trend got one more confirmation.

Russell 2000, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

We have been tracking the main US small-cap benchmark all week long, as it has been precisely leading the broader market in recent weeks, and today the index got very close hitting a new 6-month low. The next week will be crucial for global risk assets, as given the long-term breakdowns in the main European benchmarks, the new bear market lows in Chinese stocks, and the ugly market internals on Wall Street, this might be the last opportunity to avoid protracted bearish period, or even a global bear market.

While Italian assets are under severe pressure, with government bond yields charging higher, decoupling from the “core” of the Eurozone, credit markets in general are not showing signs of broad distress. With that in mind, we don’t expect 2008-like dislocations in financial markets, for now, but investors should watch high-yield corporate bonds, where large excesses built up in recent years.

Forex Markets Turn Choppy as Dollar Pulls Back Again

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The China-led rebound in equities, which faded in late trading, and the Dollar’s retreat were the two main drivers in forex markets today. The EUR/USD recovered above the key 1.15 level after reaching as low as 1.1430 in early trading, while the Dollar index also failed to rise above its recent swing high, so the reserve currency could continue to consolidate before re-testing the August lows.

The bounce in the Euro was helped by the rumors regarding a possible new budget proposal from Italy, and as Moody’s downgraded Italy after the US market close, we will likely see further choppy, hard-to-trade action in currencies, especially given the large moves in US Treasury yields.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities had a mostly bullish day thanks to the Dollar’s dip, with copper and crude oil both recovering after yesterday’s selloff. The WTI crude contract bounced back all the way to the $70 per barrel level, while copper avoided a key breakdown out of its lengthy consolidation pattern.

Gold is also consolidating, albeit in a much different technical position, as the precious metal is trying to form a swing low that would confirm a short-term uptrend after last week’s breakout. A move above short-term resistance would likely lead to a test of the $1245-$1250 zone, with a likely rally up to the next major resistance level near $1260.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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