Connect with us

Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Crucial Rally Attempt

Published

on

The crypto segment is at a very important point from a technical perspective following the strong late-April rally and the subsequent correction. The major coins formed a bottom last week after triggering long-term buy signals and now a very important rally attempt is underway.

Several weaker coins drifted back to their April lows, with Bitcoin also getting relatively close to the base that developed this year. The leaders of the April rally shined once again, with IOTA, EOS, and to a lesser extent Ethereum showing relative strength during the rally.

Despite the positive signs, and the short-term buy signals that popped up during the weekend, the momentum of the move stalled today, and the advance is already facing a key test. For now, the rally is intact, and the coins remain dominantly on buy signals in our trend model, but especially the leaders should be monitored closely in the coming days.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

We expect the recovery to continue, even as Bitcoin is once again lagging the leading altcoins, as it was the case during the April rally. BTC is stuck below the $7650-$7800 level, and although the long-term setup is bullish, the coin failed to trigger a short-term buy signal, while the daily MACD indicator is also pointing to weak bullish momentum.

That said, long-term investors could add to their holdings here, as the secular bullish trend is still clearly intact. Further resistance is ahead at $8400, $8700, and between $9000 and $9200, while support is found at $7350, $7000, $6500, and $6150.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum recovered well after a period of relative weakness, and the coin formed a bottom near $500, keeping the recovery intact, and staying well above the April low. The currency ran into resistance in the $625-$645 range, but we expect the rally to continue, and ETH is on a buy signal on all time-frames. Primary support is found between $555 and $575, while further resistance zones are ahead between $735 and $780 and near $845.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin failed to move above the $125 level so far, and the coin remains among the weaker majors even after drifting out of the declining short-term pattern. Investors could add to their holdings on the short-term pullbacks, and we still expect the coin to hold the strong base pattern near $100, while further resistance zones are ahead near $140, $150, and between $170 and $180.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash has also been among the weakest majors in recent weeks, and the rally attempt is also not convincing so far. The coin failed to trigger a short-term signal, and traders should remain cautious with new positions until Dash shows signs of strength. The secular uptrend remains intact despite the weakness, and long-term investors could still add to their holdings here. Support is found at $300 and near $260, while resistance is ahead at $360, $400, and $435.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has been showing relative strength recently and the coin is now on a short-term buy signal after while being bullish from a long-term perspective as well. XRP is now above the $0.64 support/resistance level, although it faces further strong resistance near $0.73 and $0.84. We expect the recovery to continue with a strong base pattern found between $0.45 and $0.54.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Ethereum Classic is now on a buy signal both short- and long-term, it failed to gather strong momentum and the $16 resistance level stopped the advance for now. While the long-term indicators signal a durable bottom, the short-term weakness could point to another test of the lows, and traders should focus on the relatively stronger coins. Support zones are still found near $14.50 and $13.50, while further resistance is ahead at $18.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is also among the weaker coins and it failed to trigger a short-term buy signal, even as the long-term picture turned positive. We still expect the coin to hold the long-term base pattern between $150 and $175, but traders should still stay away from new positions here. Long-term investors still accumulate the coin with further resistance ahead at $200, and strong support below $150 found at $125.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO built up some short-term relative strength last week, but the momentum of the rally is still weak, and the coin is facing strong trendline resistance near the current price level. NEO is on both short- and long-term buy signals, but the coming days will be crucial for the coin. Further resistance zones are ahead near $64, $70, and $80, with support found near the $50 level.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA rallied strongly off the correction lows as we expected, and it hit the $1.9 level before entering a short-term pullback. The coin is now back near the $1.7 level, and we expect the rally to continue while the long-term picture is also bullish. Further resistance levels are ahead near $2.2, $2.35, and $2.6, while key support is found at $1.5.

EOS

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS ran into resistance near the key $15.50 level after breaking out of a short-term correction pattern, and the coin remains one of the clear leaders of the market despite the current pullback. The short- and long-term buy signals remain intact, with support found at $12, $10, and $9, while targets above 415.50 are ahead at $19 and $23.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-to-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
5 votes, average: 4.20 out of 55 votes, average: 4.20 out of 55 votes, average: 4.20 out of 55 votes, average: 4.20 out of 55 votes, average: 4.20 out of 5 (5 votes, average: 4.20 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 322 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Pgaucher

    June 5, 2018 at 1:08 am

    Could we add Bitcoin Cash to the list of long term trend analysis. Huge development efforts are being made and clear use cases pop up every day making it a potential contender to the top spot. Would be great to get technical views on BCH as well as BTC. Thanks.

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Altcoins

Crypto Pricing: Still Searching For The Bottom

Published

on

It seems like this entire year has been devoted to rational thinking people searching for rational answers. Why are crypto prices so consistently under such unrelenting selling pressure? There has been no shortage of explanations.  Unfortunately most of them fall far short of the task.

We all remember all those rational thinkers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve who teamed up with Stanford University in a study that concluded that the CBOE was responsible.  The thinking goes that creating a futures market for Bitcoin lead to the collapse.

That study was grossly misleading.  During the first month of Bitcoin futures trading, there were fewer than 900 contracts traded, most of which remained open contracts.  That is less than 0.01% of Bitcoin’s daily volume. Come on folks, you can’t be serious.

More recently on a rainy weekend,  I came across an article noting how short sellers were ganging up on Bitcoin. True, the short position had about doubled in just one month from something like 16,000 to 28,000 coins. Frankly, I was surprised that the short position was so small given the collapse of Bitcoin.

This amount of short selling is far too small to account for more than $300 billion in lost Bitcoin value.  Bitcoin trades over 500,000 coins on any given day. That means that short selling volume over that month was 0.0008% of Bitcoin volume: totally inconsequential.

Something to remember, every short sale at some point will have to cover.  The only way is to buy into Bitcoin. So at this point, a gigantic short position would be good.

Blame It On ICOs

And there are those who pin the blame for crypto prices on Ethereum based ICOs cashing out. Even though it comes nowhere close to explaining the loss of $600 billion in total crypto losses, there may be some truth to this point. Since the beginning of 2017, according to ICOWatchList, tokenized startups have raised a total of $8.5 billion of which about $3.7 was accounted for last year.

Recent studies have concluded that 75%+ of last years ICO were scams. This is a highly debatable point but it is likely to be a conservative measure for the number of failures of last year’s crop of crypto financed business startups.  But even here there is a limit. At its peak in January ETH was valued at $133 billion. Currently that value is $100 billion+ lower than just eights months ago.

There is no question that ICOs influenced ETH speculators but what that doesn’t begin to explain the loss of more than $600 billion in aggregate losses for all crypto assets, nor does it explain how closely matched has been the difference in price performance between Bitcoin and Ether during the last six months of this year.   

Where Is The Market For Crypto Spenders

During the current threat of global trade wars, crypto may prove to be a haven for citizens of China, Turkey and other countries.  But the real problem is the the world’s 7 billion inhabitants have almost no place to spend their Bitcoins and still fewer places to spend their altcoins.

The drop in crypto prices this year has done nothing to encourage its acceptance as a medium of exchange.  The CBOE claims that the presence of Bitcoin futures helps reduce the notorious volatility. This is supported by July showing the lowest volatility in more than a year. It will take more than one month of calm to make a difference.

The fact remains that most ICO, whether they succeed or not, are geared more toward speculation than anything else. Only 2% of capital raised is for commercial/retail projects while over 20% went to financial projects like crypto exchanges.

While certain financial projects like cryptocurrency merchant processors helps limit volatility risk for retailers. Most major outfits that did accept the cryptocurrency have stopped citing volatility concerns. None the less this hasn’t helped crypto adoption by business.

According to Chainalysis, merchant processing over nearly the past year has dropped 85% for all crypto.  Projects like Bitwala, Wirex and TenX, that serve as a consumer bridge between crypto and fiat currencies, are just getting started. The crypto world needs more major brands than just Overstock.com, Expedia, Subway and PayPal to accept a full range of crypto not just Bitcoin,  before speculators are replaced by crypto spenders.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.4 stars on average, based on 97 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Lower in Choppy Trading

Published

on

Summer conditions have been dominating the cryptocurrency segment in recent days as the majors failed to gather bullish momentum after the oversold bounce of the second half of last week. The technical setup didn’t change much in the top coins, although the consolidation cleared the short-term oversold momentum readings.

Ripple remains the strongest altcoin from a short-term perspective after its strong oversold rally, while Bitcoin is the most stable in the whole segment. That said, as Ripple is still in a declining broader trend, well below the structural break-down level from two weeks ago, traders should be cautious with new positions. Also, Bitcoin failed to move above the $6500 level, so the largest coin didn’t trigger a short-term buy signal, leaving the overall picture overwhelmingly bearish.

ETH/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is still among the weakest majors, and as it failed to stay above $300, and spiked below $275, a renewed short-term sell signal is very close, while the long-term sell signal is clearly in place. ETH cleared the short-term oversold momentum readings, and now a test of the lows near seems likely even as from a longer-term perspective the coin is still stretched on the downside. Above $300 strong resistance is at $335, while the next level of support is near $235.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range in the last few days, as the market settled down near the $6500 level. The coin spiked below the short-term resistance near $6275 in late trading, but with no clear momentum in the market, BTC remains neutral from a short-term standpoint. As the long-term support level near $5850 is still standing, Bitcoin also avoided a long-term sell signal so far, but traders still shouldn’t enter new positions.

Still No Leadership Present as Coins Fail to Join Rally

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While correlations broke down somewhat during the bounce, the conditions for a broader trend change are still not met, as despite Ripple’s strength and Bitcoin’ stability there is no strong evidence of accumulation among the majors. Litecoin and Monero failed to build on the early signs of strength that they showed during the latest leg lower, and the other relatively weak coin, like NEO, Dash, and IOTA continue to show vulnerability.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With all those in mind, the rally in Ripple remains suspicious, despite the spike up to $0.375. The coin is currently trading in a choppy consolidation pattern, stuck between the $0.30-$0.32 zone and the $0.35 resistance level. While the short-term buy signal remains intact for now, a dip below $0.30 would warn of a test of the lows near $0.26.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
1 vote, average: 4.00 out of 51 vote, average: 4.00 out of 51 vote, average: 4.00 out of 51 vote, average: 4.00 out of 51 vote, average: 4.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 4.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 322 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Crypto Update: Ethereum Classic on Track for a Bullish Reversal

Published

on

Ethereum Classic (ETC/USD) is among the many altcoins that suffered a massive beating this year. While the pair managed to go as high as $47.296 on January 14, 2018, it has been on a downward spiral ever since. On August 14, it registered a low of $10.10 and at that price point, Ethereum Classic has shed close to 80% of its value from this year’s high.

Just as gloom and doom articles started to circulate on the internet, Ethereum Classic came back from the dead. The market is still weak but it is gaining strength. In this article, we reveal three reasons why we believe ETC is on track for a bullish reversal.

Successful Backtest of a Breakout

Many investors believed that Ethereum Classic was headed into even deeper bear territory. It breached support of $12.00 on August 13 and generated another lower low. After all, lower highs and lower lows are the hallmarks of a downtrend. ETC seems consistent in following the textbook definition of a downtrend.

With these developments, it’s difficult to imagine that Ethereum Classic has already broken out of a reversal pattern. However, it did break out of the large falling wedge on the daily and weekly charts. What we’re seeing right now is the backtesting of the breakout.

Daily chart of ETC/USD

In technical analysis, a resistance becomes a support level once breached. The chart above shows the clear breach of the resistance, hence the breakout. Even with the breakout, Ethereum Classic still dropped. This may seem counterintuitive that’s why many are still saying that the market is bearish.

However, the chart clearly depicts that ETC bounced from the support. It is respecting the new support, which means the breakout is still valid. The backtesting was a resounding success.  

Ethereum Classic Indicators Look Strong

We’re bullish on Ethereum Classic because technical indicators are glowing. Ignore the price drop and you’ll see that the market is gaining strength.

A quick look at the weekly chart reveals that bulls are returning in massive numbers. The extreme volume surge over the last two weeks tells us that bulls are buying the market. The last time ETC printed the same volume level was back in February 2018. However, this is the first time the market is printing such heavy volume for two consecutive weeks.

Weekly chart of ETC/USD

On top of that, a long bullish divergence can be spotted on the daily MACD. Also, ETC has bounced from historic daily Stochastic support of 7.00. These indicators tell us that bulls are wrestling the momentum away from bears.

Daily chart of ETC/USD with indicators

Projected Move

ETC/USD may be looking bullish, but that doesn’t mean that the market will skyrocket anytime soon. On the contrary, it would be better for the long-term health of the market for the price to consolidate between $12 – $20 before making a major move up. If a massive rally occurs that works, too. Whatever happens, we believe that the future looks rosy for ETC.

ETC/USD may have bottomed out

The main reason for the optimism is because the market just bounced from its historic support. This tells us that a bottom may be in place and it’s highly likely that ETC will not go anywhere but up.

Bottom Line

ETC may look extremely bearish but a closer look tells us the exact opposite. The successful backtest of the breakout and the flashing of bullish signals from multiple technical indicators tell us that Ethereum Classic is on track for a bullish reversal.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
1 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 51 vote, average: 5.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

3.6 stars on average, based on 225 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

5 of 15 Seats Available

Learn more here.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending