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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Crucial Rally Attempt

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The crypto segment is at a very important point from a technical perspective following the strong late-April rally and the subsequent correction. The major coins formed a bottom last week after triggering long-term buy signals and now a very important rally attempt is underway.

Several weaker coins drifted back to their April lows, with Bitcoin also getting relatively close to the base that developed this year. The leaders of the April rally shined once again, with IOTA, EOS, and to a lesser extent Ethereum showing relative strength during the rally.

Despite the positive signs, and the short-term buy signals that popped up during the weekend, the momentum of the move stalled today, and the advance is already facing a key test. For now, the rally is intact, and the coins remain dominantly on buy signals in our trend model, but especially the leaders should be monitored closely in the coming days.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

We expect the recovery to continue, even as Bitcoin is once again lagging the leading altcoins, as it was the case during the April rally. BTC is stuck below the $7650-$7800 level, and although the long-term setup is bullish, the coin failed to trigger a short-term buy signal, while the daily MACD indicator is also pointing to weak bullish momentum.

That said, long-term investors could add to their holdings here, as the secular bullish trend is still clearly intact. Further resistance is ahead at $8400, $8700, and between $9000 and $9200, while support is found at $7350, $7000, $6500, and $6150.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum recovered well after a period of relative weakness, and the coin formed a bottom near $500, keeping the recovery intact, and staying well above the April low. The currency ran into resistance in the $625-$645 range, but we expect the rally to continue, and ETH is on a buy signal on all time-frames. Primary support is found between $555 and $575, while further resistance zones are ahead between $735 and $780 and near $845.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin failed to move above the $125 level so far, and the coin remains among the weaker majors even after drifting out of the declining short-term pattern. Investors could add to their holdings on the short-term pullbacks, and we still expect the coin to hold the strong base pattern near $100, while further resistance zones are ahead near $140, $150, and between $170 and $180.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash has also been among the weakest majors in recent weeks, and the rally attempt is also not convincing so far. The coin failed to trigger a short-term signal, and traders should remain cautious with new positions until Dash shows signs of strength. The secular uptrend remains intact despite the weakness, and long-term investors could still add to their holdings here. Support is found at $300 and near $260, while resistance is ahead at $360, $400, and $435.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has been showing relative strength recently and the coin is now on a short-term buy signal after while being bullish from a long-term perspective as well. XRP is now above the $0.64 support/resistance level, although it faces further strong resistance near $0.73 and $0.84. We expect the recovery to continue with a strong base pattern found between $0.45 and $0.54.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Ethereum Classic is now on a buy signal both short- and long-term, it failed to gather strong momentum and the $16 resistance level stopped the advance for now. While the long-term indicators signal a durable bottom, the short-term weakness could point to another test of the lows, and traders should focus on the relatively stronger coins. Support zones are still found near $14.50 and $13.50, while further resistance is ahead at $18.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero is also among the weaker coins and it failed to trigger a short-term buy signal, even as the long-term picture turned positive. We still expect the coin to hold the long-term base pattern between $150 and $175, but traders should still stay away from new positions here. Long-term investors still accumulate the coin with further resistance ahead at $200, and strong support below $150 found at $125.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO built up some short-term relative strength last week, but the momentum of the rally is still weak, and the coin is facing strong trendline resistance near the current price level. NEO is on both short- and long-term buy signals, but the coming days will be crucial for the coin. Further resistance zones are ahead near $64, $70, and $80, with support found near the $50 level.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA rallied strongly off the correction lows as we expected, and it hit the $1.9 level before entering a short-term pullback. The coin is now back near the $1.7 level, and we expect the rally to continue while the long-term picture is also bullish. Further resistance levels are ahead near $2.2, $2.35, and $2.6, while key support is found at $1.5.

EOS

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS ran into resistance near the key $15.50 level after breaking out of a short-term correction pattern, and the coin remains one of the clear leaders of the market despite the current pullback. The short- and long-term buy signals remain intact, with support found at $12, $10, and $9, while targets above 415.50 are ahead at $19 and $23.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-to-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 467 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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  1. Pgaucher

    June 5, 2018 at 1:08 am

    Could we add Bitcoin Cash to the list of long term trend analysis. Huge development efforts are being made and clear use cases pop up every day making it a potential contender to the top spot. Would be great to get technical views on BCH as well as BTC. Thanks.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Test Swing Highs Litecoin Runs Into Resistance

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The major cryptocurrencies continue to trade with a bullish bias after establishing a new short-term uptrend this week. The top coins are all holding on to the bulk of their recent gains, even as most of them entered consolidation patterns on the heels of the strong rally in the segment. With still only Ripple lagging the broader market notably, the immediate outlook remains positive, despite the still bearish long-term picture.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Today, the initially leading Litecoin shined again, pushing past the $50 level and hitting the long-term resistance zone near $51. As LTC is overbought due to its recent lofty gains, the coin is now only on a neutral short-term signal in our trend model, since the bearish long-term setup continues to warrant caution for bulls here.

That said, the rising short-term trend is intact, and should the coin clear the overbought momentum readings, traders could enter small, speculative positions using strict risk management rules. Support levels are now found near $47, $44, and $38, while the next major resistance zone is ahead near the $56 price level.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin entered a consolidation pattern today, as we expected, after touching the longer-term zone resistance zone between $4000 and $4050. The momentum indicators hint on further consolidation, and in light of hostile long-term setup, traders should wait for the overbought readings to be cleared before entering new short-term positions.

Below the initial level $3850 support, further levels are found near $3600 and just above $3450, while the next resistance zone above $4050 is ahead near $4450. The short-term uptrend is intact in BTC, and our trend model remains on a short-term buy signal.

Ethereum Tries to Form Swing Low while Ripple Fights Trendline

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum entered a shallow correction after hitting the resistance zone near $145, but the price action and the volume patterns continue to support the bullish short-term case. The $160 price level remains a viable target for bulls but the momentum indicators continue to show overbought readings. The short-term uptrend is intact and our trend model is still on a short-term buy signal as well. Support levels are found near $130 and $112 while above $160 resistance is ahead near $180.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Only a few of the major altcoins managed to follow Litecoin to a new swing high today, but EOS slightly extended its rally, despite being severely overbought from a short-term perspective. While the new high is a positive sign for the coming period, EOS remains only neutral in our trend model, and traders should wait for the oversold readings to be cleared before entering new positions.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the leadership of the rally is still healthy, Ripple continues to lag the leaders, still fighting with the declining trendline that stopped the recent rally attempt in the coin. XRP is holding up above the $0.32 level, but it’s stuck below the recent swing high, and traders should still focus on the relatively stronger coins despite the short-term buy signal in our trend model.

From a long-term perspective, technicals remain negative, and a move towards the $0.28 and $0.26 levels remains likely. Further support zones are found near $0.32 and $0.30, while short-term targets are still ahead near $0.3550, and $$0.3750.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 467 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Bitcoin Update: Reversal Right on Track

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On our February 13, 2019 update, we argued that Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) bottom is likely in. While many crypto participants were heavily bearish about Bitcoin’s prospects, the market broke out of a continuation pattern and climbed over the $4,000 mark yesterday on Bitfinex. This left some in disbelief, which is exactly the reaction that we were expecting.

Nevertheless, many still hold on to their bearish stance. After all, it could also be argued that last week’s rally was nothing but a dead-cat bounce. They will probably laugh out loud if we say that Bitcoin’s reversal is underway. They can laugh all they want but recent events tell us that the reversal is right on track.

Multiple Resistances Breached

The price action on February 18 caught many market participants by surprise. That’s because it’s been a long time since Bitcoin followed through with a strong rally after a bullish move. Since February 2018, every bull rally was met by a stronger bear selloff. This resulted to four lower highs and eventually, the breakdown from $6,000.

Bitcoin lower highs from Feb 2018

With this trend, it seems logical that Bitcoin would once again post another lower high and continue its downward spiral. However, for the first time in a long while, Bitcoin defied bearish expectations. It rallied to $4,021 on Bitfinex on February 18 and breached multiple resistances in the process.

One major resistance that was taken out used to be the diagonal support that kept the market above $6,000. When Bitcoin breached this diagonal support, it acted as a heavy resistance. The February 18 rally enabled bulls to reclaim this support.

Diagonal support turned resistance and then turned support

On top of the diagonal resistance, Bitcoin also managed to go above our range midpoint as well as the 100-day moving average.

Bitcoin trading above range midpoint

It’s not just the price that enjoys multiple bullish breakouts. The daily RSI managed to print two breakouts in the last couple of months. The first one involves the breach of the diagonal resistance on December 18, 2018. At that time, Bitcoin flipped this resistance into support and relied on it to take out RSI resistance of 56. The move above 56 triggered the inverse head and shoulders breakout on the daily RSI. This tells us that momentum has swung to the side of the bulls.

RSI breakouts

Without these layers of resistances in terms of price and technical indicators, the bulls’ chances of winning the fight to reverse the market’s trend has significantly increased.

Toughest Resistance Ahead

While these technical developments can be really exciting, it is important to not give in to our emotions. Bitcoin’s biggest challenge is on the horizon.

Bitcoin is approaching our range high of $4,300. This resistance is unique because bears enjoy three layers of protection. The first one is the horizontal resistance, the second is the long-term diagonal resistance, and the last is the 200-day moving average.

Bitcoin resistances

Bulls need to generate tremendous momentum and volume to go above $4,300. A move above this level solidifies Bitcoin’s road to reversal.

Bottom Line

Even after the February 18 rally, many still hold firm to their bearish stance. However, a closer analysis of Bitcoin reveals that last week’s rally enabled bulls to take out multiple resistances. The breach of these resistances increases the chance of bulls to finally reverse the trend.

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.9 stars on average, based on 329 rated postsKiril is a CFA Charterholder and financial professional with 5+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and funds, as he does his own crypto research and is a Product Manager at Mitre Media. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Altcoins

Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Bulls Dealt a Blow as Bearish Daily Candlestick Eyed

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  • Tron (TRX) was forced to give up the recent run higher after closure in the red on Tuesday.
  • TRX/USD saw a bearish candlestick formation on the daily chart yesterday, somewhat of a shooting or evening star.

The Tron price after a decent push north over the past few sessions saw a minor slowdown on 19th February. TRX/USD gained around 12% from 15th-19th February, as the price managed to find its feet following a break of key support. An ascending trend line was initially running from the back-end of December 2018 up until a breach on 11th February.

At the daily close on 19th February, the candlestick formed somewhat of a bearish shooting or evening star. Should this play by the textbook, then it signals some further potential downside pressure to come. A confirmation of the price moving back south and possibly reversing the recent run of gains would need to see another bearish closure on the daily.

BitGo to Support Tron

Tron announced that BitGo is adding TRX to the list of cryptocurrencies that it supports later this year. BitGo is a digital asset financial services organization offering wallet and custody support. The company already accommodates the likes of bitcoin and Ethereum, plus over 100 other cryptocurrencies.

The CEO and founder of Tron Justin Sun commented following the announced:

“As TRON and its subsidiary BitTorrent work toward our vision of creating a new internet economy that is fast, secure, and cost-effective, we need to work with the companies that can provide that secure foundation. With BitGo, TRX investors will have the most secure wallet and custody options.”

Elsewhere the chief technology officer at BitGo spoke on the latest update to support Tron:

“As TRON and its subsidiary BitTorrent work toward our vision of creating a new internet economy that is fast, secure, and cost-effective, we need to work with the companies that can provide that secure foundation. With BitGo, TRX investors will have the most secure wallet and custody options.”

Technical Review – TRX/USD

As detailed above, the daily candlestick observed yesterday was a bearish closure, ending the run of gains seen of late. If there is to be additional selling pressure, the bears would need to force another close in the red. Should the momentum to the downside pick up the pace, then eyes will be on the next area of support. Daily comfort is provided at $0.023550 $0.021500, $0.018700 and then $0.01750-$0.01600.

In terms of upside targets, the bulls would be looking to break back above the breached ascending trend line. The resistance is currently tracking around $0.027500, and a push north of this could put TRX/USD in an excellent running to retest $0.030000 territory. A large amount of supply is noted through much of this area. If this is successfully broken down, then a fast move could take place up to $0.040000 region.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.            

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 125 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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